MLB Betting Picks and Predictions for Friday, April 2nd
Opening Day 2021 is in the books, and so are a bunch of upsets. My Opening Day Betting Guide had a whiff (thanks, Yankees!), a hit (genuine thanks, Kansas City), and a late scratch (thanks, COVID!). I’m disappointed that my upset pick—Nationals over Mets—was one of the two games to be postponed. However, my pride can handle a 1-1 start to the season.
Let’s get back on the mound, hold our heads up high, and come to the plate with our best MLB picks and strategy for the Friday night games. It’s a long season, folks—there’s plenty of money to be made at the sportsbook.
MLB Odds — Friday, April 2
MLB Betting Picks
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching Matchup: Senzatela vs. Bauer
MLB Pick: Dodgers Spread -1.5 (-180)
The MLB odds referenced are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
The Rockies served the reigning champions the 8-5 upset special on Opening Day, due mostly to a surprising implosion by veteran Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (10 hits, 5 ER, 2 SO in 5.2 IP). LA’s offense showed up—in addition to the five runs, they had 15 hits and eight walks—but they couldn’t quite dig themselves out of the proverbial hole Kershaw dug.
In many ways, Dodgers fans have to be sort of relieved that their squad is good enough to stay in a game they seemed so dead-set on losing. LA made multiple errors, threw three wild pitches, and left 14 men on base, but yet had the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning. If they can nearly pull themselves out of that kind of a dumpster fire, imagine the kind of damage they can inflict when they hit their stride.
They might not be back to October form in Game 2, but it would be an absolute shock if LA served up another five-spot this evening. The Dodgers will be handing the game ball to prized offseason acquisition Trevor Bauer, who won the 2020 NL Cy Young despite playing for a mediocre Cincinnati Reds club. Bauer’s stats last season were outrageous: 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts in just 73.0 innings. He basically led an 11-game tutorial on spin rate and command.
The majority of Colorado’s hitters have little to no experience digging in against the 30-year-old ace and former Indian. But the Rockies who have faced him have not fared well — C.J. Cron, Charlie Blackmon, and Greg Bird have gone a combined 6-for-34 with no homers and four total RBI against him.
Meanwhile, the Rockies will counter with Antonio Senzatela, who often struggles with command, lacks spin rate, and has just a 1.89 K/BB ratio over the past three years. And LA’s sluggers have enjoyed success against the 25-year-old. Mookie Betts is 3-for-6 with a homer and an RBI against him. Corey Seager: 5-for-15 with two dingers and five RBI. Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy have also taken him deep.
For a “groundball pitcher,” Senzatela sure seems to give up a lot of power numbers. That’s a recipe for disaster against a World Series-champion ballclub hungry to erase the memory of their Opening Day-loss. It could be a long night for Rockies fans and Colorado bettors —I smell a Home Run contest coming. I’m all aboard the Dodgers train here, so I’m not bothering with the poor value of the -275 moneyline. The spread could be -2.5 and I’d still take LA.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Pitching Matchup: Keuchel vs. Heaney
MLB Pick: White Sox Moneyline (+100)
At least this LA squad had some fun on Opening Night. The Angels came back late on a game-tying RBI from the best hitter in baseball (ever?), Mr. Mike Trout, and a go-ahead RBI from fellow future Hall-of-Famer Albert Pujols. That’s a fantastic way for Joe Maddon’s squad to start the season, as they further their quest for the organization’s first playoff appearance since 2014.
Like the Dodgers, the White Sox will be playing with a chip on their shoulders after underwhelming out of the gate of a heavily-anticipated season. Chicago has a tremendous blend of speed and power, and it seems like a stretch to expect Andrew Heaney to duplicate Dylan Bundy’s Opening Day success.
Heaney has been known to surrender longballs (27 in 180 IP in 2018, 20 in 95.1 IP in 2019, 9 in 66.2 last year). He’s a career 4.44 ERA/1.25 WHIP guy, and he’s been owned by the South-siders’ core — Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, and Yasmani Grandal are a combined 10-for-24 with two homers and six RBI. Expect a particularly strong night for Abreu, the reigning AL MVP. His career OPS against Heaney: 1.417.
Meanwhile, the ageless Tony La Russa has the perfect guy going for the ChiSox. In 18 career appearances against the Halos, Dallas Keuchel has a sparkling 12-2 record with a crisp 3.36 ERA. Bettors in Illinois will be happy to hear that I’m all-in on the White Sox, but going with the moneyline as they are somehow +100 underdogs. That’s fine with me—I need to make up for picking the Yankees yesterday.
More MLB Predictions for Friday
PointsBet Spread Parlay of the Day:
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-171) at Colorado Rockies (Trevor Bauer vs. Antonio Senzatela) – see above. The Dodgers are way too good to lose their first two games of the season. Methinks they will be much more focused tonight.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+105) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Nathan Eovaldi vs. John Means) – the Red Sox on Opening Day always feel like a good bet, and Eovaldi has looked good so far this spring. Means should have a good year, but he’s probably not ready to pull off the upset at Fenway.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-110) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Blake Snell vs. Merrill Kelly) – Readers already know how high I am on Blake Snell in Padres pinstripes. San Diego won 8-7 on Opening Day, and they might win 8-3 tonight.
Total Parlay Odds: +518
Bet: $100 | To Win: $518 | Payout: $618
BetMGM Moneyline Parlay of the Day:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-261) at Colorado Rockies – excuse the redundancy, but I’m very confident in the reigning champs here.
Chicago White Sox (+100) at Los Angeles Angels – Four words: Keuchel owns the Angels.
Boston Red Sox (-180) vs. Baltimore Orioles – I don’t blame you if you’re lukewarm on taking the BoSox on the spread. A -180 ML isn’t terrible value in a parlay.
Oakland Athletics (-131) vs. Houston Astros (Jesus Luzardo vs. Cristian Javier) – Luzardo was on my breakout pitchers list this preseason. I like the Athletics to bounce back in Game 2.
Total Parlay Odds: +657
Bet: $100 | To Win: $518 | Payout: $618
Image Credit: Imagn