MLB Opening Day Odds, Picks & Predictions: Swing Away With Yankees, Royals, Nats
Opening Day of the 2021 MLB season —the first ‘normal’ season in two years—has finally arrived! A busy day of action begins at Yankee Stadium, where the Bronx Bombers will host the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays at 1:05 p.m. As expected, online sportsbooks have been active, and eager baseball bettors have been rigorously rifling through MLB odds sheets looking for lines to attack.
With a plethora of games scheduled at all different slates, we at RotoGrinders thought we would pick a few of our favorite Opening Day bets. We will highlight our favorite picks and prediction from each part of the day, starting with Jays-Yanks and culminating with the Mets-Nationals night game at 7:05 p.m. You’ll even get a glimpse of my MLB Parlay of the Day! And for game-by-game weather updates, check out our MLB weather report from our in-house meteorologist, Kevin Roth.
Good luck, enjoy the best day of Spring, and go win some money!
All betting information provided by BetMGM and PointsBet, and all statistics via Baseball Reference and MLB.com.
MLB Opening Day Odds & Picks
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching Matchup: Cole vs Ryu
MLB Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-165)
The MLB odds referenced are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
If you can start your MLB betting season with a powerhouse, you have to pull the trigger. The Bronx Bombers look like they are back, relatively healthy (besides Luke Voit’s and Zach Britton’s), and ready to make some noise in one of the most competitive divisions in the Majors. The biggest positive factors for New York: sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, both capable of mashing 40 homers in a full season, are starting the year healthy. DJ LeMahieu, who has become a perennial MVP candidate, re-signed after testing the free agency waters. And Gerrit Cole, perhaps the best overall pitcher in the American League, looks poised for another stellar season, in his second campaign (and first non-COVID-shortened season) in pinstripes.
Toronto improved in the offseason, and the Jays’ young core makes for an explosive lineup. But question marks remain. Will they have chemistry at the start of the year after a very hectic offseason? Will Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. take a giant leap forward and fully break into superstardom? Can George Springer stay healthy, and can Teoscar Hernandez pick up where he left off in his torrid 2020 laser show? And then there’s pitching—can Hyun Jin Ryu, who just turned 34 years old, continue defying the odds and finish top three in Cy Young voting for a third consecutive year? Does Toronto’s bullpen have enough gas in the tank without Kirby Yates, who just underwent Tommy John surgery?
The Yankees have question marks, but the Blue Jays have more of them. And Cole over Ryu at home on Opening Day is a no-brainer. In the 32 games Cole has started in the months of March and April (202.1 IP), Cole has a sparkling 2.85 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 233 strikeouts, and just 20 homers allowed. Take the Yankees, who will almost assuredly get off to a hot start.
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Pitching Matchup: Keller vs. Gibson
MLB Pick: Royals Moneyline (-150)
After two strong seasons in which he finished in the top six in Cy Young voting, Lance Lynn was traded to the White Sox in December for acclaimed pitching prospect Dane Dunning. That move catapulted second-year Ranger Kyle Gibson, now 34 years old, to the top of the Texas rotation. The nine-year veteran had a rocky first season in Arlington last year, finishing 2-6 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 12 starts.
Gibson will face off against Brad Keller, who last pitched on Opening Day in 2019. Keller turned in a gem that day, pitching seven innings of two-hit ball and surrendering no runs in a 5-3 Royals win over the aforementioned White Sox. Keller has had a topsy-turvy Spring Training (while Gibson’s has been pretty good), but history suggests Keller will be a better bet than Gibson. Still just 22 years old, Keller is coming off a season in which he finished 5-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. He’s not a strikeout pitcher—he’s a very efficient and effective groundball pitcher. And the Rangers’ core struggles against groundball pitchers. Give me Kansas City at home, with a better and younger starter and a lineup that showcases an abundance of both speed and power.
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Scherzer vs deGrom
MLB Pick: Nationals Moneyline (+135)
Considering they finished last place in their division just six months ago, the New York Metropolitans sure have been a hot topic this offseason. I guess that happens when you bring in perennial MVP candidate Francisco Lindor and a No. 2 starter in Carlos Carrasco for pennies on the dollar. Signing three solid rotation pieces in Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, and Joey Lucchesi doesn’t hurt. Acquiring the best available catcher in James McCann, and a hot young closer in Trevor May? That’s Icing on the cake for eager-beaver new owner Steve Cohen, new President Sandy Alderson, and acting GM Zack Scott. Now the Mets can leave their 2020 last-place finish in the NL East behind them, and try to capitalize on Jacob deGrom’s prime while he’s still in his early 30s.
But the Nationals, who finished just one spot above the Mets last season, will be looking for a strong bounce-back year as well. Leading the charge for the Nats: Max Scherzer, tied with Clayton Kershaw as the only National League pitchers with more Cy Youngs than deGrom (three to two, although Scherzer and Kershaw have been around longer). Scherzer’s run support should be better this year, as well. Outfielder Victor Robles appears healthy and flashed the offensive skills in Spring Training that everyone always thought he had (three HR, seven RBI, five SB, .296 AVG, .574 SLG, .945 OPS). Trea Turner remains an elite combination of power and speed, and Josh Bell will always be a power threat. Oh, and don’t forget Juan Soto, who will look to continue his impression of a young Barry Bonds, and most likely put himself near the top of the MVP conversation once again.
The Mets are really good, and no pitcher in baseball is better than Jacob deGrom. But I’m not completely sold on their prospects at lighting up the division out of the gate. Do they have enough chemistry after adding so much new talent in such a brief timeframe? Will they get on base (and run) enough to give deGrom and his rotation mates run support? Will Pete Alonso bounce back from his awful sophomore slump, and get closer to the 50-homer guy we saw his rookie year two seasons ago? I’m leaning towards no on at least a couple of those questions, and therefore have the Mets disappointing in Game 1 tomorrow night. The Nationals serve the Opening Night upset special, and all my Mets fan friends start the season in familiar fashion: pissed off.
PointsBet Spread Parlay of the Day:
Red Sox -1.5 (115) over Orioles – The Sox are (understandably) getting very little love after their pitiful 2020 campaign. But Alex Cora is back in Boston’s dugout, the Sox have some pop, and Nate Eovaldi’s has been hitting 100 mph all preseason. Orioles starting pitcher John Means has a bright future, but he and Baltimore’s lineup won’t have enough to pull off an Opening Day upset at Fenway Park.
Reds -1.5 (+170) over Cardinals – Luis Castillo is my favorite value pick to win the NL Cy Young. The Reds also have a high offensive ceiling if they can get bounce-back seasons from Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos, and Mike Moustakis. I like Jack Flaherty, but not in this one.
Yankees -1.5 (+115) over Blue Jays – Not to belabor the point, but I like the Yankees on Opening Day.
Total Parlay Odds: +1148
Bet: $50 | To Win: $574.04 | Payout: $624.04
BetMGM Moneyline Parlay of the Day:
Yankees (-165) over Blue Jays – See above writeup. Gotta love Cole over Ryu at home, especially with most of NY’s sluggers healthy. Voit’s replacement at first, Mr. Jay Bruce, is 4-for-11 (.364) lifetime with 2 HR and 1.000 SLG against Hyun Jin Ryu.
Royals (-150) over Rangers – See above writeup. Texas seems like too much of a work in progress. The Royals are not going to be very good this season, but I’d bet the farm they will be better than the Rangers.
Indians (-200) over Tigers – Betting on Shane Bieber to once again be the AL Cy Young, Jose Ramirez to still garner MVP attention, and both Franmil Reyes and Josh Naylor to break out (Francisco who?). Plus, Detroit still stinks.
LA Dodgers (-225) over Rockies – The defending champs kick 2021 off in style with a Coors Field home run contest. Clayton Kershaw, who will start his franchise-record ninth Opening Day contest, delivers a performance that implies the notion “I’m still here.”
Padres (-225) over Diamondbacks – The Padres’ 2021 tour de force begins with a thrashing of the cactus snakes at Petco Park. Yu Darvish pitches a two-hitter, while Madison Bumgarner serves up four longballs.
Total Parlay Odds: +738
Bet: $100 | To Win: $737.73 | Payout: $837.73
MLB Opening Day Odds
Image Credit: Imagn