MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Saturday, August 8

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2020-08-08 16:56:59

Happy Saturday, baseball betting fans. The season is flying by with about a quarter of the games in the books — for most teams. A packed slate on Saturday offers a plethora of betting opportunities. Here are a few of my favorite bets for a busy day of baseball.

Here are MLB betting lines from online sportsbooks and MLB betting picks for Saturday’s slate of games.

Also read: MLB World Series Odds, Tips, & Predictions

MLB Betting Lines for Saturday, August 8

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MLB Betting Picks and Predictions

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (4:10 EST)

The Astros are underdogs this afternoon against Frankie Montas and the Oakland Athletics. This should not come as too much of a surprise as the Athletics pushed their record to 10-4 after an extra-innings victory against the Astros on Friday night. That said, the current price on online sportsbooks just does not sit well with me.

Frankie Montas pitched extremely well in his last outing versus the Seattle Mariners — completing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out nine batters. In 2019, Montas pitched to a 3.54 xFIP, 26.1 K%, and a 49.6 GB% — a perfect blend of just enough strikeouts to couple a pile of ground balls.

The Astros counter with Framber Valdez as they look to patch together a once-vaunted rotation. Valdez impressed in his last outing — striking out eight Angels across six innings on the road. Valdez struggled with righties in 2019 (.357 wOBA and 19.1 K%) but a groundball-rate north of 60% kept him alive. The young pitcher will face a predominately right-handed Oakland lineup on Saturday.

So, why the Astros love? The price is just… tilted a bit too much towards Oakland for my taste. A 130 price on the Astros requires the Astros to win this game just over 43% of the time for some value for bettors. A Houston starting lineup that finished the 2019 season with a 125 wRC should not face odds this long. I am going to bet on the lineup in this game and take the big odds with Houston.

Betting Pick: Houston Astros +130 (PointsBet) – 1 unit

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (6:05 EST)

In a matchup of two of the best teams in the National League East — sorry, Miami — the Phillies welcome the Braves for the first game in a four-game weekend set. After Friday night’s game was postponed, the teams will play a doubleheader on Sunday with the series finale playing out on Monday night. Both teams trail the Marlins in the standings early in this shortened season. Given the expedited nature of this season, the weekend series between these two teams becomes exponentially more important.

Jake Arrieta will take the ball for Philadelphia as the Braves trot out the touted prospect, Kyle Wright. Sportsbooks seem to expect offense and I agree. In his elder years, Jake Arrieta still seeks to induce ground balls but continues to get hit harder. Last season, Arrieta finished with a 38.4% hard-hit rate and a measly 18.5 K%. He does not possess the stuff to miss bats and will face a projected Atlanta lineup that is pretty patient (9.1 BB%) and hits the ball very hard (41.8%).

Speaking of hard hits and walks, the Braves will trust Kyle Wright in the series opener. Wright is a strong prospect but has struggled in his limited Major League experience. Since last season, the young pitcher has issued plenty of free passes (15.9 BB%). While the totality of the Philadelphia lineup is not very patient, the first three hitters — McCutchen, Hoskins, and Harper — all finished 2019 with walk-rates that exceeded 13%. Wright will labor to get through the top of this order and then be forced to dodge plenty of power bats afterward.

At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook posted a 9.5-run total. I am jumping on the over before the number moves to double digits.

Betting Pick: Over 9.5 Runs -115 (FanDuel) – 1.15 units

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Baltimore Orioles at Washington Nationals (6:05 EST)

Sharing the same state does not mean the Orioles and Nationals are a rival — unless, of course, you think hammers and nails share a storied rivalry. The Nationals will welcome their local buddies in for a pitching matchup that leaves plenty to be desired.

Tommy Eshelman will make the start — filling in for John Means who is grieving the loss of his father. Eshelman pitched in three innings of relief this year but struggled to… well, basically do anything well on the mound last season. In his relief appearances, Eshelman managed a 5.87 xFIP, a putrid 13.9% K-rate, and a 3.0 HR/9. Yikes. The Nationals lineup is healthy again with Juan Soto rejoining the heart of the order this week.

Fear not, though, as Eshelman will be backed with a bullpen that pitched to 5.79 ERA and 1.73 HR/9 in 2019. Wait, that is not good either… is it? The Orioles are going to give up runs this evening. That Nationals make for a strong stacking option in DFS lineups where you can play them against Eshelman and a sub-par bullpen.

I want to attack this game through the Washington team total. DraftKings Sportsbook posts a 5.5-run total at the time of this writing with a +110 price tag. I will jump on the over as this game might get out of hand.

Betting Pick: Washington Over 5.5 Runs +110 (DraftKings) – 1 unit

Today’s Betting Card

Season Record 2-4 -2.11 units

MLB Player Props – Home Run Derby

For a bit of fun, let’s pick some home runs on this baseball-filled Saturday afternoon. Home run bets should be a very, very, very small wager in the hopes of hitting a longshot or even a cheap parlay. This section is reserved for some fun. Let’s hunt for some home runs!

Mike Trout +350 (DraftKings)

Mike Trout is the best player in the MLB. I was a bit surprised to see odds longer than +300 for a home run in Texas.

Kolby Allard is a left-handed pitcher. Relative to the greatness of Mike Trout, that is about the only thing I can muster up about the young southpaw. My first dart is on Trout — hopefully, riding the new dad narrative into the weekend.

Justin Smoak +410 (FanDuel)

Justin Smoak moved to Milwaukee in the offseason and — if he cracks the lineup — will face Anthony DeSclafani this evening in Miller Park. DeSclafani yields a boatload of fly balls to left-handed hitters (47.3% in 2019) and will face his share of lefties in a park built for left-handed home runs. The price on Christian Yelich is not great — so the .234 ISO from Justin Smoak will have to do.

If Smoak does not make the lineup, but Logan Morrison does — take LoMo on DraftKings for +330, instead.

Xander Bogaerts +430 (FanDuel)

Most fantasy players and bettors presume that platoon splits are the end-all for most decisions. Yet, the Red Sox square off against a right-handed pitcher that notoriously yields more power to right-handed bats. Play the game in Fenway Park, and Boston righties seem like nice targets for home run darts.

Chase Anderson owns a 2.0 HR/9 to right-handed hitters over the last three seasons. Xander Bogaerts finished 2019 with a .241 ISO and 40.4 FB% against right-handed pitching. Good enough for me. Book it!

Thanks for reading. Good luck with your betting plays and home run picks.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images