MLB Predictions and Betting Picks — Tuesday, May 18th
Take the mound with Sloan Piva as he breaks down some MLB predictions and betting picks for Tuesday, May 18, with lines from our best online sportsbooks. For more baseball betting picks, visit ScoresAndOdds!
SPORTS! It’s impossible not to be excited if you’re a sports fan right now. We just had the Preakness, the opening round of the NHL Playoffs is underway, and the NBA Play-In Tournament begins tonight, and not to mention the 2021 PGA Championship tees off on Thursday. (Sidenote: check out my NBA Play-in Tournament Betting Preview)
And, of course, we have the national pastime. The beautiful thing about Major League Baseball is that each season is uniquely different in so many ways. Certain teams always seem to surprise us, like they used magical powers to put it all together (see Red Sox, Boston and Giants, San Francisco). Stars like Nicholas Castellanos become superstars in front of our eyes. Pitchers like Kevin Gausman find their way into the Cy Young conversation.
There are always going to be storylines in professional baseball that nobody saw coming. Our job is to constantly keep our finger on the pulse of the MLB, so we can help you stay one step ahead of the sportsbooks. We have succeeded in that goal (and then some) this season, with a 28-14 record on our Bets of the Day. And while Friday was a little unkind to us, we are more than happy to have two times more wins than losses on the year.
Let’s dive into Tuesday, and keep this exciting stretch of sports going. There are 15 games scheduled for this evening, so let’s started with some MLB predictions and best bets of the day. SPORTS!
All MLB odds for this article are from BetMGM and PointsBet. All stats via MLB.com and Baseball Reference.
MLB Predictions — Tuesday, May 18
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup: Anthony DeSclafani vs. Luis Castillo
MLB Pick: Giants +100 (PointsBet), +100 (BetMGM)
I couldn’t very well mention the red-hot Giants in my intro and not pick the Giants as a Bet of the Day. Besides, this one feels like a gift. DeSclafani has been solid for San Fran this season, and Castillo has been horrid for Cincy. What am I missing here?
Loads of analysts in the industry seem to be clinging to the notion that Castillo always starts slow and ends up fine. However, the fifth-year starter has never endured a start like this. With eight games down, Castillo has a 1-5 record, a 7.71 ERA, and a 1.795 WHIP. He leads the majors with 32 earned runs. Usually a strikeout machine, the 28-year-old has just 29 Ks in 37.1 innings. This is all downright awful, and particularly troubling in what has so clearly been the Year of the Pitcher.
Then there’s DeSclafani, who like Gausman has put together a solid beginning of a career year. The seven-year vet, who spent five years with Cincy, has a 3-1 record, a 2.14 ERA, and an 0.885 WHIP. Usually not known as a strikeout pitcher, the 31-year-old has logged two games with at least eight strikeouts. He pitched a complete game shutout versus Colorado on April 26, surrendering just three hits. He is cooking with gas, whereas Castillo has a broken break room microwave.
The Reds started the season out of this world, but their offense has come back down to Earth recently. They are 4-5 in their last nine games, and they just made Logan Webb look like Bert
Blyleven in the series opener Monday. The Giants won 6-3, in a game that was never really in doubt.
The Reds are now 19-20, and if they keep losing one or two games of each series, they might end up in the NL Central cellar under Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the Giants are not just atop the NL West at 25-16, they are atop the entire National League. They are 7-3 in their last ten games, and don’t appear too fazed by oddsmakers continually counting them out.
Pick San Fran’s moneyline, and raise a toast to a great storyline: an underdog looking back at the favorites—like LA and San Diego—in the rear-view mirror as they drive away. If a team has the best record in the NL, and nobody in the nation seems to notice, did it really happen? Yes it did, and yes it is.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching Matchup: JT Brubaker vs. John Gant
MLB Pick: Pirates +115
There must be something clinically wrong with me. I have now picked the Pirates straight up in multiple games this season. But I just can’t quit JT Brubaker, the second-year Bucs starter in the midst of a full-on breakout season.
Maybe I love Brubaker because he’s the same height and weight I was five years ago, before I got fat: 6’3, 180. Maybe it’s because he limits hard contact despite maintaining a chase rate in the 85th percentile. Nah, it’s because he has five pitches—including the best slider in baseball—and he rarely walks anyone (nine walks in seven games/38.1 innings).
Brubaker has a 2.58 ERA, a 1.122 WHIP, and 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed just one run in four of his starts, and has yet to surrender more than three runs in any outing. And yet, the poor guy is just 3-2. This guy would probably lead the majors in wins if he had some run support. But I’m confident he will net his fourth win today, given the fact that St. Louis struggles mightily against right-handed pitchers who specialize in off-speed pitches.
Gant has had a great year himself, but his 1.83 ERA is preposterous given his propensity towards walking batters. Rarely do you see a guy on the ERA leaderboards while also leading the MLB in free passes (27 BB on the season). Methinks his 4.36 FIP, 1.631 WHIP, and 40.6 percent hard-hit rate will catch up to Gant sooner than later.
I never bet on the Pirates knocking the cover off the ball—I just pick them to win when I feel there is a clear pitching advantage. That’s the case today. Let’s bring sexy back with JT, whom I just acquired on my fantasy team!
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Pitching Matchup: Cristian Javier vs. Sean Manaea
MLB Pick: Athletics -1.5 (+170)
Don’t look now, but Oakland is 25-17, a half-game ahead of Houston in first place in the AL West. Here’s betting that division lead stretches to 1.5 games after tonight’s home tilt with the Trash Can Bangers.
The Athletics will hand the ball to Manaea, who just got rocked by the Sox last week. But overall, the veteran lefty has fared well this season, and he kept Houston in check when these two teams last met April 9. In six innings that day, Manaea allowed just one run on six hits and a walk.
As for Javier, the young righty has hit a rough patch after starting the season on cruise control. After allowing just two runs in his first four games this season (20.2 IP), the 24-year-old has surrendered 11 runs in his last three starts (17.1 IP). He’s struggling with command, failing to get out of jams, and he’s allowed four homers (after not allowing any in those first four games).
That’s not great news for Houston, considering the Athletics are hitting the cover off the ball this season. I’m betting the A’s on the run line for added value, but grab them on the moneyline if you don’t trust Manaea as much as I do here.
More MLB Picks for Tuesday
Milwaukee Brewers (ODDS TBD) at Kansas City Royals (Brandon Woodruff vs. Kris Bubic) – The Brewers are a good offense and Woodruff is one of the five best pitchers in the NL. The Royals are inconsistent offensively and are starting a long reliever.
New York Yankees (-165) at Texas Rangers (Jameson Taillon vs. Mike Foltynewicz) – Taillon has looked pretty good this season, and he was especially good the last time he faced the Rangers. Folty may still be kicking the rust off the spurs by the time this one is decided.
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-191) at Seattle Mariners (Spencer Turnbull vs. Justin Dunn) – The M’s have lost six of their last nine, and the Tigers have won six of their last eight. And Turnbull is better than most sportsbooks realize—no bull! I’ll take Detroit with a one-run lead here.
MLB Odds for Tuesday
Image Credit: Imagn
Image Credit: Imagn