NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/25/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-25 22:22:24

Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and is ready to get back on the DFS NBA grind as we have a massive 13 game slate today with one of the longest injury reports I can remember with almost 100 guys listed in the Situation Room currently. The lineups we like early in the day will almost certainly not be what we like closer to lock time with so many big questionable names so load up on leftovers, watch the USA vs. England world cup match, and check RG’s tools and updates throughout the day so you can follow who’s in or out and how every piece of news will affect the optimal plays and your lineups.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• LeBron James is officially questionable but all signs point to him returning today so AD will lose some usage and take a ceiling hit along with all the other starters if LBJ does play.

• Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, and Rui Hachimura are all questionable for the Wizards and last game all three were out and we saw Jordan Goodwin and Corey Kispert join the starting five. Deni Avdija was the biggest beneficiary though going for over 40 FP while Kuzma and Porzingis would have higher ceilings with no Beal. Corey Kispert only put up about 15 FP but still saw 39 minutes and would be in play for value if Beal and Morris sit.

• Wendell Carter and Chuma Okeke are questionable for the Magic but with Paolo Banchero on track to return I won’t be super eager to use Bol Bol or Mo Bamba at their current prices if Carter and Okeke are out. Moe Wagner is also off the injury report to help with PF/C minutes.

• Mitchell Robinson, Cam Reddish, and Derrick Rose are all questionable for the Knicks so we’d likely see Isaiah Hartenstein start if Robinson sat and Quentin Grimes start if Reddish sits. Derrick Rose being out would just give more minutes to Quickley and McBride.

• Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, Cory Joseph, and Hamidou Diallo are questionable for Detroit so we could be looking at huge minutes for Alec Burks. Bojan Bogdanovic would also be an even better play if Ivey or Hayes we’re out as he’s been extremely solid with Bey out so an even bigger usage bump would keep him in play at his current salary.

• Michael Porter and Ish Smith are questionable for the Nuggets and while Smith’s status isn’t that important Porter being out would make Murray, Gordon, and Jokic more appealing plays looking at usage bumps while Bruce Brown would likely start.

• Tyler Herro, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Dewayne Dedmon, and Jamal Cain are questionable for Miami so depending on who is out the starting lineup could be looking at massive minutes if the Heat end up with the minimum players available.

• Steven Adams & John Konchar are questionable for Memphis and if Adams sits we’d likely see Brandon Clarke draw the start while David Roddy or Jake LaRavia would likely start for Konchar. Trey Murphy is questionable for the Pelicans and his minutes would be absorbed by Nance and Marshall if out. Drew Eubanks is Q so Little and Watford would get his minutes while Doug McDermott and Zach Collins are Q for the Spurs and if out we’d see Bates-Diop, Bassey, and Roby all get minutes bumps as the top bench bigs. (Update: Collins is IN, McDermott is OUT)

• Bruno Fernando is Q for Houston and his return is much needed with Sengun likely out but I would expect Fernando to be eased in after missing so much time with Jabari Smith and Usman Garuba getting most of the center time today.

• Clint Capela is now questionable with “dental pain” and if he is out look for Onyeka Okongwu to start at C and be a solid value play while all the starters get usage bumps.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Harden, Embiid, Maxey, and Thybulle all remain out for Philly so they should continue to go with the starting five they have been while Niang, Korkmaz, and House will get Thybulle’s bench minutes. Their opponent Orlando will get back Paolo Banchero and Moe Wagner.

• Justise Winslow got the start over Shaedon Sharpe last game for POR so that will likely continue along with Derrick White starting over Grant Williams for BOS and with CJ McCollum going into H&S Protocols look for Jose Alvarado to start again for New Orleans and be a very solid value play today.

• With Alperun Sengun doubtful we should see either KJ Martin or Usman Garuba join the starting five with either Jabari Smith or Garuba starting at C while Bruno Fernando could be back to help there as well. Eric Gordon is also out for Houston so KJ Martin and Tari Eason could both start today and are very strong value targets.

• Jimmy Butler and Duncan Robinson remain out for the Heat so Lowry and Adebayo have big time ceilings today especially if Tyler Herro (Q) and Max Strus (Q) also end up out.

• Patrick Beverley has been suspended for three games so we’ll likely see either Dennis Schroder or Kendrick Nunn start at PG for the Lakers with Westbrook remaining in his 6th man role but with LeBron James likely returning I won’t be looking to play any fringe Lakers guys today.

• Saddiq Bey and Chris Paul remain out so look for Isaiah Livers and Cameron Payne to continue to start for them respectively while Collin Sexton should continue to start for the injured Conley.

• Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Luke Kennard remain out for LAC so we’ll likely see Terance Mann and Amir Coffey start again and both are definitely in play for value at their current prices.

• Lamar Stevens is likely out with an illness so look for Wade, Osman, and Okoro too all get minute bumps with one of those three likely joining the starting five.

• Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Jeff Green, Josh Richardson, Santi Aldama, and Bones Hyland are the important bench players who are out or likely out today.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Jose Alvarado ($4,700) and Collin Sexton ($4,700) are looking like excellent p/$ value plays and at least one of them if not both will be in most cash game lineups today.

• Amir Coffey ($3,500) saw 35 minutes as a starter last game going for over 25 FP and is a very solid value play today with George, Kawhi, and Kennard all still out while Terance Mann ($4,600) should see 30+ minutes as a starter too and is a fine value target.

• With Sengun likely out and Gordon definitely out the Rockets are a top team to target today in a nice matchup with Atlanta and while they could go a few different ways as far as a starting lineup I will be on KJ Martin ($4,400) and Tari Eason ($4,200) for value regardless if one comes off the bench. Jabari Smith ($5,500) is also a bit too cheap for the usage bump he’ll see today and is a solid play at that price.

• Deni Avdija ($4,400) has been excellent lately with four games over 30 FP in his last six including a 42+ FP game with Beal, Morris, and Hachimura all out last game. All three could be out again today too so Avdija could jump into top value play consideration along with Corey Kispert ($3,700) who saw 39 minutes last game and is in play if Beal sits.

• UTA/GSW has the highest projected total of the slate so I’d look to get exposure to that game with either Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,800), Kelly Olynyk ($5,300), Malik Beasley ($5,700), or Draymond Green ($5,800) for cheap (along with the already mentioned Sexton).

Looking at DraftKings:

• I’d consider Jose Alvarado ($3,800) the “free square” of the slate as he’s just way too cheap for a starting PG likely to see 29+ minutes while Collin Sexton ($4,600), Amir Coffey ($3,200), and Terance Mann ($3,800) all remain excellent value plays.

• Tari Eason ($4,000) and KJ Martin ($4,300) remain top value options and with his $1,100 discount compared to FD I’d include Norman Powell ($4,700) as a top DK value target too.

• Klay Thompson ($5,800), Andrew Wiggins ($6,400) and Draymond Green ($5,900) are all high upside plays at great prices for the Warriors and their highest projected team total on the slate while Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,100), Kelly Olynyk ($5,200), and Malik Beasley ($4,900) are all in play at great prices as well in that same game.

• Some other names that I really like for the price are Shake Milton ($6,000), Aaron Gordon ($6,000), Justise Winslow ($4,100), Jabari Smith ($5,400), Patrick Williams ($4,200), Deni Avdija ($4,600), and Marvin Bagley ($4,500).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn