NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/4/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-11-04 23:03:54

If you look up “chaos” in the dictionary, you might just see the NBA logo as today’s 12-game slate is going to be absolutely insane with a lot of big names already out and a bunch more that are questionable. There are definitely some guys I’m already locking into my cash game lineup, but it’s a guarantee there will be plenty of other great new options as the day goes on and we learn the statuses of all these Q guys. Only the Warriors are on a back-to-back and at 1:30PM they ruled out Curry, Klay, Wiggins, and Draymond so they are going to be the top team for value now.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested. All while adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Let’s start with the Cavs who have their top two guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell both questionable today but we will know their statuses before lock as they are in the first wave of games at 7 PM. If one of them is out but the other plays then I will definitely be looking at the active guy as a cash game option, especially Garland who just dropped over 60 FP in his return last game. If both guys end up out then Caris LeVert would be a cash game lock for me while Osman, Wade, and both of the starting big men would get nice usage bumps and would be in play depending on your positional needs. (Update: Garland and Mitchell are both OUT)

• Minnesota also has a pair of superstars questionable in Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert who are both dealing with a non-covid illness. If Edwards sits then Russell would be a solid cash game target while Jaylen Nowell could join the starting five and be in play for value. If Gobert sits then Towns would be looking at a 60+ FP ceiling as he’s been consistently over 40 FP with Gobert.

• Joel Embiid has missed the last couple games and is questionable tonight with his illness. With the 76ers already missing Harden I would expect Tyrese Maxey, DeAnthony Melton, and Tobias Harris to be three of the highest owned players of the slate if Embiid ends up out, especially on DK where all three are way underpriced. Matisse Thybulle is also Q for Philly, and if out, they would be down to Niang, House, and Reed for help at the forward spots. (Update: Embiid is OUT)

• We have another big questionable center in Bam Adebayo who is dealing with a right knee contusion. The Heat are already without Jimmy Butler and if Adebayo joins him on the sidelines I’d expect Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro to be extremely popular plays. Meanwhile Strus, Martin, and the likely starter Dewayne Dedmon would all be in play for value, especially Dedmon who is close to min price on both sites and is a solid FPPM producer. Dedmon was downgraded to questionable at 12:30PM so the Heat could be very thin at C if he and Adebayo end up out. (Update: Adebayo and Dedmon are IN)

• Fred VanVleet is still dealing with lower back stiffness and is questionable tonight and as we’ve seen in the other games he’s missed Koloko would likely start but not be in play for DFS while Gary Trent, OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam would all be looking at major minutes and nice usage bumps especially in what should be a close game with the Mavs. (Update: VanVleet is OUT)

• I really hope we learn more about Anfernee Simons and his left foot inflammation early in the day as he’s questionable and has a 10PM tipoff. If Simons ends up being sidelined, I’d expect Keon Johnson to join the starting five and be a decent value play while Shaedon Sharpe would likely push towards 35 minutes and be a top value play. Hart, Grant, and Nurkic would all get nice usage bumps as well as the top three offensive weapons. (Update: Simons is OUT)

• In the last game of the night we have Anthony Davis questionable with his lower back tightness and if out LeBron James would be a top play of the slate with a 50 FP floor and a 70+ FP ceiling in what should be a close game with Utah. Westbrook and Walker would also be much more appealing plays if Davis is out.

• Jaylen Brown was downgraded to questionable around 6PM and if he ends up out Jayson Tatum would have an immense ceiling while all the starters would get usage bumps. (Update: Brown WILL PLAY)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Warriors are resting Curry, Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins today so Jordan Poole becomes a top play of the slate as the clear top offensive weapon. Moses Moody, Jonathan Kuminga, and JaMychal Green all get huge boosts in minutes and usage as likely starters now as GSW will only have 10 players available if Anthony Lamb gets called up from the G-League.

• With Jimmy Butler out we should see Max Strus start again and on the other side of that game Aaron Nesmith was deemed “unlikely to play” today by his coach so Chris Duarte will likely start for him again.

• DeAnthony Melton missed last game but is off the injury report today and should start for James Harden who is out indefinitely with a foot injury.

• Kyrie Irving has been suspended for at least 5 games and with Ben Simmons out today as well I’d expect Edmond Sumner to draw the start at PG with Patty Mills helping a lot there as well. Seth Curry is also out today so Joe Harris could be looking at 30+ minutes as the likely starter for Simmons with just Mills, Duke, and Thomas as guard depth.

• Jalen Duren is on track to return for the Pistons to help backup Stewart (Duren was downgraded to Q at 2:30PM) while the Bulls will be without Drummond and White as well so Patrick Williams remains a very strong value play and Vucevic has less competition at C still.

• Gordon Hayward is out with a shoulder injury joining LaMelo Ball and likely Terry Rozier and Cody Martin as well and currently Charlotte has just 11 bodies available in a tough matchup in Memphis. Jalen McDaniels has been fantastic off the bench this year and he will likely start for Hayward making him one of my favorite value plays of the slate.

• Kawhi Leonard and Robert Covington remain out for the Clippers so Luke Kennard continues to start while their opponent San Antonio will get back Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson making it hard to trust any Spurs player to have a ceiling game.

• New Orleans will get back Brandon Ingram and potentially Herb Jones as well so guys like Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy lose their value appeal and the other NOP studs take usage and ceiling hits.

• Deandre Ayton is on track to return from his ankle sprain making Biyombo and Landale irrelevant again while Paul, Booker, and the other starters take slight usage hits.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• We have a ton of unknowns right now so make sure to refresh HQ after every new piece of big news drops as the top p/$ plays will likely change a few times throughout the day and even after lock. What we can do now though is look at guys that are still elite plays regardless of other news and also structure our lineups to best prepare us for potential swaps throughout the night. Make sure to always order your team from the earliest lock time to the latest lock time especially on DK with the G/F/UTIL spots.

• With Irving and Simmons out Kevin Durant ($10,400) is my favorite spend up today and the first guy I’m locking into cash games while Royce ONeale ($5,200), Joe Harris ($4,000), and Edmond Sumner ($3,500), if he starts, are all in play as solid value options.

• Jalen McDaniels ($5,300) should draw the start for Hayward and after seeing 35 minutes and scoring over 40 FP last game I’d expect that be a very likely outcome for him again today. There is a chance of a Grizzlies blowout but I think McDaniels would still get big run even if it got out of hand early making him one of my favorite value plays of the slate.

• Kyle Lowry ($6,500) and Tyler Herro ($7,000) both had one of their best games of the season last game with Jimmy Butler out and in the same situation today and potentially no Adebayo as well both should be on your cash game radars in a great matchup with the Pacers. If Adebayo ends up out then Dewayne Dedmon ($3,700) would likely start and he’d be a top value play of the slate.

• Evan Mobley ($6,000) has seen a $400 price drop from last game and is the cheapest he’s been all year so keep him on your cash game radar if Garland and/or Mitchell are out as he’s already a solid play at that price and would an elite play if either of the questionable guards sit.

• Tyrese Maxey ($8,200) is going to have to carry a lot more of the offense with Harden out and even though he’s seen a huge price increase he still has 50+ FP upside especially if Embiid sits again. DeAnthony Melton ($6,000) and Tobias Harris ($7,400) are also priced up due to the Harden news and are less of a priority for me unless Embiid sits.

• If Simons is out then I’d look at Shaedon Sharpe ($4,200) for value while Patrick Williams ($4,100) and Cameron Johnson ($4,500) remain solid plays for the price if you need more value at the SF/PF spots.

• With the Warriors ruling out four starters I have to make Jordan Poole ($6,500) a cash game priority now while Moses Moody ($3,600), Jonathan Kuminga ($3,600), and JaMychal Green ($3,800) are all excellent value targets.

Looking at DraftKings:

• DK either released this slate before the James Harden news or really doesn’t care about pricing as Tyrese Maxey ($6,500), Tobias Harris ($5,800), and DeAnthony Melton ($4,400) are all egregiously underpriced and I’d expect 2-3 of them to be in almost every single entry and cash game lineup today. If Embiid ends up out as well then it will be hard to not use all three in cash games at those prices.

• Jalen McDaniels ($4,500) is $800 cheaper than he is on FD and remains one of my top value plays of the slate while Kyle Lowry ($6,300) is $200 cheaper than FD and is my preferred Heat guard for cash games as Herro is $600 pricier than FD but he would definitely be in play still if Adebayo ends up out with Butler.

• If Darius Garland ($6,900) is active he will be a top cash game target today as he saw 42 minutes (including overtime) in his first game back from his eye injury and went for over 60 FP. His price somehow only went up $300 after that monster game so he is an excellent value and will be one of the most popular plays of the slate if he’s active and Donovan Mitchell gets ruled out.

• Kevin Durant ($10,300) remains my favorite spend up on DK while Royce ONeale ($5,400), Joe Harris ($4,400) and Edmond Sumner ($3,300) are all in play for value still.

• Evan Mobley ($6,100), Patrick Williams ($4,000), Mason Plumlee ($4,900), Shaedon Sharpe ($4,500), Justise Winslow ($4,300), and Lonnie Walker ($5,300) are some other names I like for value at the moment but I’m sure this list will grow if any of the big Q names end up out.

• With the Warriors ruling out four starters I have to make Jordan Poole ($6,500) a cash game priority now while Moses Moody ($3,400), Jonathan Kuminga ($3,000), and JaMychal Green ($3,600) are all excellent value targets.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn