NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/28/22
Today is going to be full of tricks and treats as we have a big eleven game slate with a bunch of big names that are questionable and other big names that are already ruled out. The treats are going to be the value all of these injuries has opened up while the tricks are knowing which value to be prepared to swap to as some big Q players have games that start way after lock time. The good news is that no teams are on a b2b so we have all of the current injury reports while the bad news is that they are loaded with unknowns including nine questionable players with impact ratings of 8 or higher in the Situation Room. Be prepared to make adjustments all day and even after lock today as news is going to be ever-changing and the highest scores are going to be the teams that adjust to the late news.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- I have to start with the Pelicans as they have five questionable players and their game starts three hours after lock so this game is probably the most crucial to the slate. Brandon Ingram is already out while CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Jose Alvarado, and Dyson Daniels are all questionable so at the moment the best plays that will for sure be available are Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, Larry Nance, Naji Marshall, and Devonte Graham which could end up being the starting lineup if all five Q players end up out. Overall this is a team that could offer very little value or a ton of value depending how these Q players break and with a 10pm start time I think it’s smart to leave a few positions available to swap to in case excellent value opens up at lower ownership as a lot of others might not be able to swap to them.
- Joel Embiid is questionable for rest as the 76ers play tomorrow so we could see Montrezl Harrell or Paul Reed start at C if Embiid sits while Harden, Maxey, and Harris get big usage bumps and will have to carry a lot more of the offense.
- Anthony Davis is questionable with back tightness and if out I would consider LeBron James one of the top overall plays of the slate.
- Zach LaVine is questionable with his knee maintenance as the Bulls have a game tomorrow and if he they choose to rest him today we should see Alex Caruso draw the start and I will be much more inclined to play DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic in a great matchup with the Spurs.
- If Jaden Ivey sits again with his illness then Cade Cunningham would be looking at a much higher ceiling as he had his best game of the season when Ivey sat last game and he gets the same matchup with the Hawks today.
- Michael Porter and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both questionable for Denver and if either of them are out we should see Bruce Brown get the start and he’d be a great value option as he saw 33 minutes and scored over 36 FP last game when Porter sat. If both Q guys end up out then Nikola Jokic would have an even higher ceiling while Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon would be more appealing plays. (Update: Porter is now expected to play)
- Lastly Collin Sexton and Walker Kessler are questionable for the Jazz so guys like Beasley, Horton-Tucker, and Azubuike could be looking at more bench minutes but none are on my DFS radar.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Spurs will be without Devin Vassell and Joshua Primo again so look for Josh Richardson to start and be a top value option while Jones, Johnson, and Poeltl will all have to carry more offense.
- The Magic will be without Cole Anthony so Wagner, Ross, Harris, and Hampton will all help at PG tonight. On the other side of that game Dennis Smith will continue to start at PG with Ball and Rozier out.
- Darius Garland remains out for the Cavs so Dean Wade will likely start again and Grant Williams will serve his one game suspension today for the Celtics.
- In the last game of the night Portland will be without Damian Lillard which opens up a ton of usage for all of the other starters which could include Shaedon Sharpe while Anfernee Simons will move to PG.
- CHI/SAS, HOU/POR, and CHA/ORL are my favorite game stacks while ATL, DEN, and NOP are other teams I like targeting players from.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Josh Richardson ($4,800) is the top p/$ projected play as he will start and likely see 30+ minutes and he just put up almost 40 FP in the same spot last game. Also under $5k is Monte Morris ($4,900) who should push for 30+ minutes with Delon Wright out which should hopefully lead to 30+ FPs making him a very solid cheap PG play.
- With Lillard out I really like Shaedon Sharpe ($4,200) who has a good chance of starting tonight but regardless he should see at least 25 minutes in a great matchup with Houston and potentially 30+ minutes if he starts and plays well.
- With all of the questionable Pelicans players and Ingram already out I love Trey Murphy ($5,600) today as he will almost certainly start and could be looking at monster minutes and usage if a couple of the other big name Pelicans end up out. Jose Alvarado ($4,000) will be in play if McCollum sits while Larry Nance ($5,100) will be a solid play if Zion sits.
- If Kevon Harris ($3,500) draws the start for the Magic I’m sure he will draw some solid ownership but there is some risk as RJ Hampton ($4,800) may end up splitting time or even playing more or the other four starters may end up taking all the extra usage. Speaking of the other starters I like the prices of Terrence Ross ($5,000) and Wendell Carter ($6,400) if you want ORL exposure.
- Other plays I like for the price today include Buddy Hield ($5,500), Dean Wade ($3,900), Jaden McDaniels ($5,000), Mitchell Robinson ($5,200), Ayo Dosunmu ($5,400), Aaron Gordon ($5,600), Mikal Bridges ($5,400), and Cameron Johnson ($4,300).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Josh Richardson ($5,400) remains a top p/$ projected play while Franz Wagner ($6,400) and Paolo Banchero ($7,800) are slightly cheaper than FD and I prefer them on DK compared to Ross and Carter who I prefer on FD while Kevon Harris ($3,000) is an OK option if you need a stone minimum player to fill out your lineup.
- Shaedon Sharpe ($4,400) remains a favorite value option along with Trey Murphy ($5,600) but Monte Morris ($5,500) is a bit too expensive compared to FD with so many other great plays in that price range.
- Anfernee Simons ($7,100) and Dennis Smith ($6,300) are two of my favorite mid-range PGs to target as both have little competition at PG while Tre Jones ($6,000), Keldon Johnson ($7,200), and Jakob Poeltl ($6,800) are all in play for the Spurs at solid prices.
- More names to consider at super cheap prices are Dean Wade ($3,900), Justise Winslow ($3,900), Patrick Williams ($3,900), Naji Marshall ($3,900), Aaron Nesmith ($3,900), Deni Avdija ($4,200), Jeremy Sochan ($4,200), and Doug McDermott ($4,100).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn