NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values For 3/23/2022
Today is going to be a doozy with eleven games full of huge injury news and more to come with four teams on a back-to-back (ORL, GSW, NYK, ATL). Nine of the eleven games tip off at 8:30PM EST or earlier so at least we should get most of the injury news before lock, but any slate this big it’s so crucial to order your players from top to bottom in your lineups by earliest lock time for maximum flexibility for late-swaps and to be re-checking all of the tools mentioned in this article, as the best plays are going to be changing rapidly throughout the day. There’s so much to cover that I’m not even going to try to think of anything else interesting to say here other than it’s Kyrie Irving birthday and he actually gets to play today!
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinder’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
The biggest name out today is Luka Doncic and looking at NBA Starting Lineups it’s going to be the Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson show at guard in an excellent matchup with Houston. Not that we need data to be targeting them, but looking at the CourtIQ with the available Mavs today we see Dinwiddie and Brunson getting 11% and 8.7% usage bumps respectively and both going to around 1.20 FPPM. I probably won’t be on the other Mavs starters, but I do like Reggie Bullock’s price on DK, Dorian Finney-Smith price on FD, and Dwight Powell price on FD.
Sticking with big PGs missing, we have Ja Morant out again in what should be a very fun matchup with the Nets. Tyus Jones should start and will be the first name I lock in on every site today as he’s just too cheap for a starting PG in one of the highest projected game totals of the day. Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, and Jaren Jackson are all reasonably priced as well and I will be strongly considering them depending on positional needs and other news throughout the day.
LeBron James was ruled out around 3:30PM EST so Russell Westbrook gets a big usage bump and is a top play while Monk, Reaves, Gabriel, and Anthony are all solid plays as well.
The Kings will be without Domantas Sabonis and DeAaron Fox so look for Damian Jones and Davion Mitchell to start for them and be very strong plays today. Mitchell is my must-play on the Kings as like Tyus Jones he is just too cheap for a starting PG in one of the highest projected game totals, especially coming off a 40+ FP game. I prefer Damian Jones on DraftKings for $1k less than FanDuel, and he will almost certainly end up in my main build unless we get some absolutely crazy news that opens up a better value center.
Julius Randle is out so look for Obi Toppin to start again and be a strong value play while RJ Barrett and Alec Burks get big usage bumps are squarely in play especially on FanDuel where both are very cheap. Mitchell Robinson has been ruled out as well so Gibson and Sims will handle the center minutes tonight.
The Warriors have ruled out Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Otto Porter while Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala are also still out. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins get big usage bumps and will have to carry most of the offense while Jonathan Kuminga could start and is a great value play looking at 30+ minutes.
Malcolm Brogdon was ruled out at 2:30PM EST and Chris Duarte is now out as well so Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield will handle most of the guard minutes in a revenge game for both and should be in serious consideration for your main FanDuel builds as they are very cheap there. Justin Anderson could draw the start at SF and is a decent value play coming off a very solid game. Jalen Smith is also out with an illness tonight so Jackson and Bitadze will handle the C spot.
In the final game of the night Josh Hart is out again for Portland so we should see CJ Elleby start for him and he has to be in consideration for value today coming off a 37+ FP game in 25 minutes. Brandon Williams is priced up to almost $7k, but he does see a 31.4% usage rate with the available players today (seen in this CourtIQ) while Ben McLemore is second with a 26.2% usage rate which is +4.5% higher without Hart.
Those are the major lineup changes of the day, but there are still plenty of other news to go through, so let’s go game by game starting with ATL-DET. John Collins is still out and Danilo Gallinari will be out as well along with Lou Williams so DeAndre Hunter will get a boost in forward minutes while Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot will start at PF. Detroit will get back Jerami Grant, Cory Joseph, and Kelly Olynyk, who all missed their last game but will remain without Hamidou Diallo and Frank Jackson and probably Isaiah Livers, who is doubtful. We already covered the Kings but their opponent Indiana will get back Isaiah Jackson but are still without Chris Duarte.
Moving to the 7:30 games, we see Kyrie Irving available to play as it’s a road game, but Goran Dragic and Seth Curry are both out and Kessler Edwards will start tonight. Andre Drummond will return after missing last game with an illness. The Jazz remain without Bojan Bogdanovic and Danuel House, so Juancho Hernangomez should continue to start while Boston will get back Marcus Smart and Robert Williams after they rested a game. The Heat remain without Gabe Vincent and potentially more as they have four players questionable that we’ll cover later.
In the 8/8:30 games the Suns will get Cameron Payne back from his one-game absence, while Minnesota is currently projected to have the same group as their last game. Jalen Suggs is still out for Orlando, so RJ Hampton should continue to start and for now OKC could get Olivier Sarr back from his illness that cost him a game. We covered the Doncic news, but Davis Bertans will also remain out for Dallas while Houston will have the same group as their previous game.
In the two 10PM games, the 76ers will get James Harden and Joel Embiid back from their one-game rest and the Lakers only have Talen Horton-Tucker as a potential return from a missed game. I already mentioned Hart out for Portland along with their usual guys missing, while the Spurs will remain without Doug McDermott, Lonnie Walker, and Romeo Langford but should get Keita Bates-Diop back. Josh Primo should start again with Josh Richardson off the bench, and at $3.5k and seeing over 30 minutes his last two games Primo is in consideration for value.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
The Situation Room poster boy LeBron James is again questionable with knee soreness and it’s anyone’s guess what their starting lineup would be without him as they seem to change it every night, but Russell Westbrook would be a top play if James sits while Reaves, Gabriel, Monk, and Anthony would all be in consideration as well.
UPDATE: James is OUT
Karl-Anthony Towns is still dealing with his forearm contusion and if ruled out it would be a very tough choice between Naz Reid and Damian Jones for top center value. DAngelo Russell and Anthony Edwards would immediately be in consideration for must-plays if Towns sits, especially Russell at just $6,200 on FanDuel.
UPDATE: Towns is IN
It’s looking like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be questionable every game now, and if out today Tre Mann would be a top play for me on DK at just $5,200 coming off a 50+ FP game with a great matchup in Orlando today. Other Thunder I’d consider with no SGA are Darius Bazley and Aleksej Pokusevski on DK and Isaiah Roby on FD who would be in serious consideration if Olivier Sarr remained out (currently Q).
UPDATE: SGA is OUT
It would be a shame if Tyrese Haliburton didn’t get to face his former team but that could be the case as he’s questionable with back soreness. Brogdon is already out so if Haliburton sat I’d definitely be locking in Buddy Hield on FanDuel at just $5,900. Isaiah Jackson is also Q for the Pacers and if he returns I won’t be using any Pacers big men, but if he’s out Goga Bitadze would likely start and is very cheap on DK at just $5,000 with huge upside as he displayed two games again vs. HOU with almost 50 FP.
UPDATE: Haliburton and Jackson are IN, Duarte is OUT
Miami has four guys questionable in Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Caleb Martin. If Butler sits I’ll consider Kyle Lowry on FD and Bam Adebayo on both sites while the other questionable Heat plays aren’t very relevant for me today unless Butler is out along with two or all of the other Q guys in which case Max Strus could start and would be a decent value play.
UPDATE: Herro is OUT.
If Wendell Carter sits with his wrist and ankle sprains Chuma Okeke will likely start and should see 30+ minutes in a great matchup with OKC and for under $4,600 on both sites would have to be in consideration as a top value play along with Mo Bamba on FanDuel.
UPDATE: Carter is OUT
Bogdan Bogdanovic was announced as questionable around 1PM EST and if out there would be a lot of guard minutes for Young, Wright, and Huerter with Lou Williams also still out.
UPDATE: Bogdanovic is IN
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Three names are absolutely jumping out on FanDuel in Davion Mitchell ($4,600), Jalen Brunson ($5,300), and Tyus Jones ($4,300) all with over 7.0 p/$ projections and they will certainly be the first guys I lock in there. The bad news is that Spencer Dinwiddie is only PG eligible on FD so going with Jones/Mitchell locks him out but for a $6,600 Dinwiddie I think the price difference between the other two PG’s is worth it and we’re still getting Brunson for Dallas exposure. After those top 3 plays we see a huge group of value plays projecting very strongly today but we’re left with over $7,600 per position after Mitchell/Brunson/Jones so I’m not sure we need any of these super cheap guys and can instead use a top stud and some solid $6k+ plus guys to round our team out. With Randle and Robinson out RJ Barrett at $7,300 against Charlotte is looking like a great play in that price range along with Robert Williams at $5,900 which is the cheapest he’s been since December. Obi Toppin is also an excellent play at $3,500 with Randle and Robinson out even though he only saw 24 minutes as a starter yesterday. There’s so much news to come out still so I will be editing some picks here throughout the day but at the moment I’m also looking at Alec Burks ($4,900), Dillon Brooks ($4,800), Cole Anthony ($5,600), Trey Lyles ($5,000), and Justise Winslow ($5,300).
Two of my three FD must-plays are also immediate locks for me on DraftKings in Davion Mitchell ($5,200) and Tyus Jones ($4,600) while Jalen Brunson at $6,700 is not as much of a must play as he is on FD but still could pay off that price. Spencer Dinwiddie at $6,400 is an excellent play especially if he isn’t in your main FD build as you get him at a discount on DK. Damian Jones at $3,700 will also be in my main DK build as he’s just way too cheap for the likely 25+ minutes he’ll see with no Sabonis or Holmes and Obi Toppin at $3,400 will also likely make my main build. Some other DK names I’m considering before we get all the news later are Ben McLemore ($3,400), Joshua Primo ($3,500), RJ Hampton ($4,100), Reggie Bullock ($4,200), and Harrison Barnes ($5,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn