NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 29th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.5 |  | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Nene Hilario | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 8 | 20 | 3 | 7 | DvP | 11 | 20 | 27 | 1 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 10 | 27 | 7 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets blew a 26-point halftime lead last night in Boston. Their offense stalled and James Harden was called for two offensive fouls in the last ten seconds of the game. They’ll want to get that bad taste out of their mouths quickly and luckily they are on the schedule again tonight. The Wizards have a mediocre defense, ranking 12th in points allowed per game and 21st in rebounding differential. The Rockets are 1.5-point favorites and have an implied total of 111 points, which is the third highest on the schedule.
Chris Paul has missed the last three games with a leg injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. He’s close enough to returning that the Rockets said that he will play Sunday if he doesn’t play against the Wizards. We have to take a wait and see approach here, as the rest of the Rockets would see a major boost in his absence. For our purposes, let’s assume that Paul is unable to suit up. In the last three games without CP3, Harden has scored 68, 67, and 54 fantasy points. If Paul is out, Harden will be a lock and load play in all formats.
Eric Gordon is viable is Paul is out and is an easy fade if Paul is active. Gordon is averaging 30 fantasy points per game without Paul in the lineup, compared to 22 fantasy points with him in the lineup. Trevor Ariza played 38 minutes last night and with Gerald Green in the mix moving forward, the Rockets may not need Ariza to play 40+ minutes a night. He’s still viable in an uptempo game against the Wizards, but far from a core play in a nine game slate. Ryan Anderson was a good value on FanDuel last night and his salary didn’t move ($4,200). He’s one of the top power forward targets on FanDuel tonight. Nene Hilario has only scored over 20 fantasy points two times in his last 12 games and can be avoided in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Clint Capela (Out)
Chris Paul (Questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.6 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $9,300 | $8,800 | $16,200 | 42.2 | -23.7 | 31.1 | -6.0 | 1.36 | 23.5% | 7 | 17 | 7 |
| James Harden | $11,800 | $11,600 | $21,900 | 54.9 | 9.9 | 36.4 | 4.2 | 1.51 | 34.0% | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 25.0 | 4.5 | 36.0 | 6.4 | 0.69 | 12.2% | 12 | 20 | 1 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,200 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 20.0 | 1.8 | 28.7 | 3.9 | 0.70 | 13.1% | 19 | 3 | 13 |
| Nene Hilario | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 14.6 | -0.4 | 15.3 | 3.8 | 0.95 | 16.6% | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 18.3 | 1.4 | 27.7 | 2.7 | 0.66 | 8.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Gordon | $5,800 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 26.0 | 4.6 | 32.3 | 5.9 | 0.80 | 22.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden, Eric Gordon (GPP), Ryan Anderson (FD)
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (Cash), Trevor Ariza
Note: The plays above are assuming that Chris Paul is out tonight.
Washington Wizards
After the three top teams in the East (Cavaliers, Celtics, and Raptors), there is only a game and a half separating the fourth seed from the eighth seed. The Wizards are one of those teams in the mix and I ultimately expect them to jump up and grab home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. We might be getting ahead of ourselves, but I always like to see where teams are in the standings. The Wizards draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are playing their second road game in as many nights and could be without their two best defenders. The Wizards have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fourth highest overall and four points above their season average.
John Wall played poorly the other night against the Hawks, but should be able to bounce back in a big way if Chris Paul is unable to suit up. Wall’s fantasy appeal hinges on the availability of Paul, as I much prefer a matchup against Eric Gordon. Wall is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he is no longer on a minute restriction. Bradley Beal is priced up on FanDuel, but firmly in play on DraftKings at a price of only $7,200. He’ll likely draw the defense of Trevor Ariza, but he’s not quite a shut-down defender like Andre Roberson or Jimmy Butler.
Mike Scott has been ruled out of tonight’s game. While that may not seem like a big deal for any one player in particular, I expect a small boost in playing time for Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, and Kelly Oubre. In a great matchup at home against the Rockets, all three are on my radar. Porter is more of a tournament play given his volatility, but Morris and Oubre are both on my radar for cash games and GPPs. Marcin Gortat typically plays more minutes when he’s facing a talented centers where they need his size in the paint. I expect both teams to play small tonight, which could hurt Gortat’s playing time.
Notable Injuries
Mike Scott (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.9 (6 of 18)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.3 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $8,600 | $8,600 | $17,800 | 39.0 | -7.0 | 33.0 | -3.1 | 1.18 | 28.6% | 3 | 11 | 3 |
| Bradley Beal | $8,100 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 36.1 | -4.0 | 35.2 | -1.8 | 1.03 | 26.7% | 24 | 20 | 16 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 30.6 | -2.5 | 31.0 | -3.6 | 0.99 | 17.1% | 23 | 27 | 10 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 19.2 | 3.6 | 23.9 | 4.7 | 0.80 | 17.1% | 5 | 1 | 27 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,400 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 24.3 | -8.7 | 27.4 | -7.1 | 0.89 | 13.4% | 13 | 17 | 7 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 22.4 | 0.6 | 27.8 | 0.0 | 0.80 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (if Paul is out), Bradley Beal (DK), Otto Porter (GPP), Kelly Oubre (FD), Markieff Morris
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (FD), Otto Porter (Cash), Kelly Oubre (DK)
Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.5 | Implied Team Total | 113.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 21 | 1 | 15 | 16 | DvP | 16 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 1 | 19 | 16 | 8 | |
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are riding a two-game winning streak, but they still own the worst record in the NBA. They draw a difficult matchup tonight on the road against the Raptors, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. The Hawks’ implied total (102.5 points) is below their season average and the fourth lowest on the board. The fact that they are 11-point underdogs doesn’t help the matter, as this game has the potential to turn into a blowout.
Dennis Schroder is averaging 38 fantasy points over his last four games, but draws a tough matchup against Kyle Lowry. The Raptors are currently ranked first in efficiency against point guards. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince have both flashed some upside recently, but seem overpriced in a game where they may not see the floor in the fourth quarter. The Hawks’ frontcourt has been an easy fade recently and that will continue tonight against Toronto.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,700 | $7,200 | $15,200 | 34.4 | 3.5 | 32.2 | 1.1 | 1.07 | 28.7% | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,900 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 29.0 | 0.1 | 28.5 | -1.5 | 1.02 | 19.6% | 30 | 21 | 25 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,100 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.5 | -3.5 | 31.1 | -0.5 | 0.82 | 16.9% | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,300 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 21.6 | 7.2 | 24.8 | 5.7 | 0.87 | 16.6% | 13 | 15 | 14 |
| Miles Plumlee | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 17.7 | 3.4 | 0.69 | 10.1% | 9 | 16 | 21 |
| John Collins | $5,700 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 24.9 | 2.8 | 23.0 | 1.3 | 1.08 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have lost two games in a row, but still own the second best record in the Eastern Conference. They should be able to snap their losing streak tonight against the Hawks, who are one of the worst defensive teams in basketball. On the season, Atlanta is ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors have an implied total of 113.5 points, which is the highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
If you think the Hawks can keep this game close, you should have interest in the Raptors. I’m a bit hesitant to expect a close game, but will certainly be looking to Toronto in tournaments. Kyle Lowry is averaging 38 fantasy points over his last four games. We’ve been streaming point guards against Atlanta all season and Lowry’s salary of $7,700 on DraftKings is more than palatable. DeMar DeRozan draws the toughest individual matchup of the five starters. Kent Bazemore has one of the highest DRPM grades of any wing defender and the Hawks as a whole are ranked eighth in efficiency against shooting guards.
Serge Ibaka has been playing at a high level over the last few weeks. The Hawks’ frontcourt is exploitable and it doesn’t hurt that they have the fifth worst rebounding differential in the NBA. I like pairing Ibaka with Lowry in tournaments in hopes that the game stays competitive. Jonas Valanciunas has a high ceiling, but a very low floor. Ideally, we want players with a high floor and a high ceiling. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Jakob Poeltl, who has scored at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last six games.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (1 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,300 | $7,700 | $15,900 | 35.5 | 2.7 | 32.7 | -0.2 | 1.09 | 21.4% | 27 | 16 | 30 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,500 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 38.4 | -0.2 | 34.4 | 1.7 | 1.12 | 27.9% | 8 | 25 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 12.7 | -4.1 | 20.9 | -0.4 | 0.61 | 11.0% | 30 | 28 | 19 |
| Serge Ibaka | $6,000 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 26.0 | -1.4 | 27.9 | 1.3 | 0.93 | 17.3% | 16 | 24 | 16 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,100 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 22.7 | -1.7 | 21.1 | 0.1 | 1.08 | 17.6% | 23 | 24 | 8 |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 17.4 | 7.2 | 17.4 | 3.4 | 1.00 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| C.J. Miles | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 15.7 | -2.0 | 18.4 | -2.1 | 0.86 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), Serge Ibaka (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), Serge Ibaka (Cash)
Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Lance Stephenson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 18 | DvP | 19 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 29 | 4 | 10 | |
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games and will be without their best player (Victor Oladipo) tonight, as they take on the Bulls in Chicago. This is a sneaky shootout and the low spread makes the game even more appealing. The Bulls aren’t an awful defensive team, but they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers’ implied total is 4.5 points lower than their season average, but that has more to do with Oladipo’s absence than the matchup.
Oladipo has such a high usage rate and is responsible for so much offensively that his absence gives a boost to everyone else in the lineup. Darren Collison isn’t going to grade out as the best point-per-dollar point guard option, but he’s viable in tournaments. Lance Stephenson was basically an auto play the other night and he didn’t disappoint, scoring 43 fantasy points in 36 minutes. His price is up across the industry, but I will be going right back to the well. If he plays 35 minutes and has his usual 0.87 FP/min, we can set his projection at close to 30 fantasy points.
Bojan Bogdanovic and Cory Joseph could also see a small boost in playing time with Oladipo out, but they are better lineup fillers than core plays. If you are stuck and need a player at their respective price points, I have no problem using them in cash games or tournaments. Thaddeus Young has been quiet over the last two weeks and Domantas Sabonis has stepped up, averaging 25 fantasy points over his last four games. Myles Turner is always underpriced on DraftKings ($6,800) and he draws a nice matchup against Robin Lopez.
Notable Injuries
Victor Oladipo (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -4.5 (16 of 18)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,300 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 27.2 | -6.5 | 30.4 | -1.9 | 0.89 | 18.6% | 24 | 21 | 5 |
| Lance Stephenson | $5,800 | $5,600 | $12,100 | 19.9 | 6.6 | 23.0 | 6.6 | 0.87 | 17.5% | 12 | 19 | 3 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.9 | 1.5 | 31.6 | 1.5 | 0.66 | 16.0% | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 27.5 | -10.5 | 33.0 | -5.0 | 0.83 | 15.3% | 28 | 25 | 23 |
| Myles Turner | $7,900 | $6,800 | $12,300 | 32.5 | 3.1 | 30.4 | 1.0 | 1.07 | 17.8% | 17 | 18 | 23 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 17.8 | -0.4 | 25.1 | 2.2 | 0.71 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.1 | 0.3 | 23.9 | -2.1 | 1.05 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lance Stephenson, Myles Turner (DK)
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have won eight of their last ten games and all of a sudden, they are only six games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 105.8 points, which gives them one of the highest projected point differentials of the slate.
Kris Dunn continues to play at a high level, averaging 35 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s been the main catalyst for this Bulls’ run and I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon. The issue is that his price is at an all-time high. He is $8,100 on FanDuel and $7,400 on DraftKings. While I’m a fan of Dunn, I don’t want to pay a premium for him in a nine game slate. Justin Holiday has now scored at least 22 fantasy points in nine straight games. He has a very high floor for his price point and deserves consideration in all formats tonight with Victor Oladipo out for the Pacers.
Denzel Valentine will show flashes at times, but his minutes are not nearly as secure as Dunn’s or Holiday’s. At a similar price point, I’d rather play Kelly Oubre, who is playing at home against the Rockets. The Bulls’ frontcourt has a great matchup against the Pacers, but is basically a fade for me until one of them gets injured or is phased out of the rotation. There are four players splitting the minutes for two positions, which makes predicting minutes and fantasy production difficult on a nightly basis.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 99.7 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (3 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $8,100 | $7,400 | $14,500 | 31.9 | 3.7 | 28.6 | 2.7 | 1.11 | 24.6% | 13 | 19 | 10 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,200 | $5,500 | $12,000 | 26.5 | -1.3 | 33.5 | -1.0 | 0.79 | 17.5% | 14 | 10 | 26 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.6 | 1.9 | 28.5 | 1.1 | 0.76 | 15.7% | 6 | 5 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,400 | $5,300 | $11,500 | 26.7 | -5.4 | 29.5 | -3.6 | 0.91 | 20.0% | 24 | 18 | 4 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 24.2 | -1.8 | 29.3 | -5.0 | 0.83 | 18.2% | 29 | 30 | 10 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,500 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 29.5 | -5.6 | 25.5 | -0.1 | 1.16 | 22.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.5 | -3.1 | 21.0 | -3.0 | 1.12 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Justin Holiday
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (DK)
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 5 | DvP | 26 | 18 | 25 | 28 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 23 | 4 | 21 | 16 | |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have lost three games in a row and eight of their last ten. To make matters worse, they draw a difficult matchup on the road against the slow-paced Heat. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production, as Miami is ranked sixth in points allowed per game and 11th in defensive efficiency. The Nets have the lowest implied total (99.8 points) and the lowest projected point differential (-7.7 points) on the board tonight.
Spencer Dinwiddie is a bit overpriced for the matchup and for a player that doesn’t play over 30 minutes very often. Allen Crabbe could be an appealing play on DraftKings ($4,300) if Caris LeVert is unable to suit up tonight, but this is far from an ideal matchup. The only other player of note here is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He is basically playing 32-35 minutes in close games and is averaging 35 fantasy points over his last four outings. I don’t love the spot as a whole for the Nets, but Hollis-Jefferson deserves consideration on DraftKings ($6,300).
Notable Injuries
Caris LeVert (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (18 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -7.7 (18 of 18)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,300 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 28.4 | -1.8 | 26.8 | 0.6 | 1.06 | 22.6% | 6 | 8 | 21 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 20.2 | -0.6 | 28.4 | 1.2 | 0.71 | 16.4% | 12 | 2 | 23 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,300 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 25.8 | -1.7 | 28.7 | -2.9 | 0.90 | 17.8% | 9 | 11 | 3 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,400 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 28.9 | 6.5 | 28.1 | -0.1 | 1.03 | 20.0% | 7 | 14 | 12 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 16.2 | -1.8 | 18.9 | -0.9 | 0.85 | 14.7% | 22 | 5 | 1 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,800 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 24.7 | 3.2 | 26.9 | 2.4 | 0.92 | 19.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK)
Miami Heat
The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw arguably the best matchup on the board, as they face a Nets’ team that is ranked fourth in pace of play and 28th in points allowed per game. We can safely give a sizable boost the offense as a whole, as the Heat have an implied total of 106.3 points. It’s not only the ninth highest total on the board, but it’s also six points higher than their season average.
Goran Dragic should play well tonight against a Nets’ team that is ranked 28th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. The concern is that he hasn’t topped 30 minutes since coming back from injury. If you told me that he would play 32-34 minutes, I would use him in all formats, but there’s a chance that he plays 29-30 minutes again. We don’t have to worry about the Heat limiting Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson, as they are averaging 35 and 37 minutes over their last four games. Both are elite plays tonight on FanDuel. I will gladly take 35+ minutes against the Nets, especially given their recent form. Wayne Ellington is playing starter-like minutes with all of the injuries Miami is dealing with. Over his last four games, he is averaging 35 minutes and 25 fantasy points. He’s viable off the bench again tonight and his ownership will be low.
Hassan Whiteside only played 17 minutes in his first game back from injury. The Heat are going to ease him back into the rotation, which makes him an easy fade for the next few games. It also cuts into the playing time of Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and Jordan Mickey. While I love the matchup against the Nets, I have a hard time playing anyone from this frontcourt. Olynyk is my favorite of the bunch, but he’s currently priced at a premium — $6,700 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
James Johnson (Out)
Dion Waiters (Out)
Justise Winslow (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (9 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 6.0 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $6,400 | $14,000 | 28.7 | -2.9 | 31.3 | -1.7 | 0.92 | 24.4% | 28 | 26 | 3 |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,900 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 22.1 | 10.0 | 28.6 | 6.5 | 0.77 | 17.6% | 27 | 18 | 23 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,300 | $7,100 | $13,000 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 33.3 | 3.5 | 0.70 | 15.4% | 8 | 25 | 4 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 22.1 | 12.2 | 22.7 | 7.5 | 0.97 | 17.2% | 26 | 28 | 21 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 35.6 | -17.0 | 26.3 | -8.6 | 1.35 | 19.2% | 26 | 28 | 16 |
| Bam Adebayo | $5,500 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 17.6 | 8.3 | 19.8 | 8.6 | 0.89 | 12.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 16.1 | 8.8 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 0.70 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson (FD), Josh Richardson (FD), Wayne Ellington (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson (DK), Josh Richardson (DK), Wayne Ellington (Cash), Goran Dragic
Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.5 | Vegas Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 15 | DvP | 9 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 23 | 27 | 3 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks picked up a win over the Wolves last night, but now travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production, as the Thunder are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks are sizable underdogs and their implied total (100 points) is the fifth lowest on the board. It’s also five points lower than their season average.
Eric Bledsoe has been terrific over his last four games, averaging 43 fantasy points per contest. He seems like an easy fade tonight, as he is overpriced and draws a tough matchup against Russell Westbrook. Khris Middleton is intriguing now that Paul George has been ruled out. Andre Roberson will likely cover Giannis Antetokounmpo, which will leave Alex Abrines and/or Carmelo Anthony on Middleton. Giannis is close to matchup-proof, but there are a handful of superstars that I would target before him in this slate. I have a ton of respect for Roberson’s defense and I can’t imagine the Thunder putting Anthony on Giannis.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -5.1 (17 of 18)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,400 | $7,000 | $15,100 | 34.6 | 8.8 | 31.5 | 1.3 | 1.10 | 24.9% | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 15.6 | -1.6 | 30.9 | -2.6 | 0.51 | 9.5% | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,300 | $7,300 | $14,500 | 35.1 | -0.7 | 37.3 | 2.1 | 0.94 | 22.6% | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,300 | $10,700 | $20,600 | 55.0 | -13.8 | 38.0 | -0.1 | 1.45 | 28.7% | 12 | 8 | 19 |
| John Henson | $5,200 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 22.9 | -1.1 | 24.0 | 0.1 | 0.95 | 12.5% | 3 | 15 | 15 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,500 | $4,900 | $11,600 | 24.0 | 3.2 | 30.3 | -0.6 | 0.79 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (Cash)
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have won six games in a row and have vaulted up to fifth place in the Western Conference standings. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City’s implied total may come down a little now that Paul George has been ruled out. At the time of writing this, their total is at 108.5 points, which is five points above their season average.
When I ran the CourtIQ with Paul George off the floor, I did a double take when I saw Russell Westbrook’s usage. He already has the highest usage of any player in basketball and it jumps up 10% when George is off the floor. I was already high on Westbrook before the news and now have him listed as an elite play in all formats. Carmelo Anthony has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five straight games, his price is down across the industry, and he sees a massive boost with George off the floor. On the season, Anthony sees a 6% usage boost and a 0.17 FP/min boost without George on the floor. I will be pairing Westbrook and Anthony together in a lot of lineups tonight.
Andre Roberson could be a sneaky value play. I was already expecting him to play 30+ minutes since they will need his defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo. Now that George is out, we can bump Roberson’s projection up to at least 35 minutes. I prefer Roberson over the likes of Alex Abrines, who could draw a spot start in George’s absence. The Bucks have struggled to contain centers all season (30th in efficiency) if you want to give Steven Adams a look in tournaments. Thanks to an inflated price point, he should have low ownership in GPPs.
Notable Injuries
Paul George (Out)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (7 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,500 | $11,500 | $20,200 | 52.6 | 8.0 | 36.3 | 0.2 | 1.45 | 34.1% | 5 | 9 | 19 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 17.2 | 4.6 | 26.7 | 2.3 | 0.64 | 8.0% | 11 | 5 | 23 |
| Paul George | $8,400 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 38.4 | 4.3 | 37.2 | 1.7 | 1.03 | 22.7% | 16 | 3 | 27 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,100 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 29.8 | -0.9 | 33.0 | 0.1 | 0.90 | 22.4% | 6 | 11 | 3 |
| Steven Adams | $7,400 | $6,300 | $11,900 | 30.9 | 5.2 | 32.2 | -0.3 | 0.96 | 14.1% | 30 | 25 | 3 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 16.9 | -4.4 | 21.0 | -2.4 | 0.81 | 14.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |