NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 12th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.5 |  | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.3 | Implied Team Total | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Domantas Sabonis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 10 | 4 | 16 | 30 | DvP | 21 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 11 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 1 | 29 | 15 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 11 | 24 | 19 | 27 | 25 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Fridays are great. Not only is it the last workday of the week for most, but we always have one of the best NBA slates of the week. We start with the Cavaliers, who forgot to show up last night in Toronto. They would love to bounce back with a win here before their next game against the Warriors. The Pacers are an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate.
Isaiah Thomas has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, as he’s not quite ready to play in back-to-back situations. Jose Calderon will draw the start at point guard, but the biggest boost may go to Dwyane Wade off the bench. With Derrick Rose nearing a return, this could be one of the last times to shine for Wade before his minutes come down. With that said, Wade is still a deep tournament play in a nine-game slate.
LeBron James can’t be happy with the way that his team played last night. He will shoulder the load offensively, especially since Thomas is ruled out. James is a solid anchor for cash game lineups and should see a full complement of minutes in a game that features a low spread. Kevin Love underwhelmed last night, but is still underpriced on FanDuel ($7,100) if you want to take a shot on him in tournaments. Tristan Thompson has scored at least 16 fantasy points in six straight games and is only $3,900 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s not a core play by any means, but he makes for a nice GPP punt at center.
Notable Injuries
Isaiah Thomas (Out)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,500 | $3,600 | 10.2 | -2.2 | 17.7 | -4.0 | 0.58 | 10.5% | 8 | 14 | 21 | |
| J.R. Smith | $3,600 | $3,700 | 16.6 | -6.3 | 29.8 | -4.4 | 0.56 | 11.8% | 11 | 10 | 1 | |
| LeBron James | $11,500 | $11,500 | 54.6 | -7.0 | 36.9 | -4.4 | 1.48 | 29.6% | 6 | 4 | 29 | |
| Jae Crowder | $3,900 | $3,800 | 16.2 | 3.4 | 25.8 | -2.6 | 0.63 | 13.7% | 27 | 16 | 15 | |
| Kevin Love | $7,100 | $7,900 | 34.8 | -13.0 | 29.0 | -5.4 | 1.20 | 23.2% | 28 | 30 | 29 | |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,400 | $4,800 | 24.8 | -2.4 | 23.6 | -2.0 | 1.05 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Jeff Green | $4,400 | $4,100 | 19.3 | 1.5 | 22.6 | 2.0 | 0.86 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Tristan Thompson | $3,900 | $3,900 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 18.8 | 3.7 | 0.75 | 9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade (GPP), Kevin Love (GPP), Tristan Thompson (GPP)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers catch the Cavaliers at an opportune time. The Cavaliers haven’t been in the best of form over their last few games and are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Cleveland is also ranked in the bottom eight in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and two points above their season average.
Given his recent form, you might think I’m crazy, but this feels like a Darren Collison type of game. He has been losing fourth quarter minutes to Cory Joseph, but that’s largely because the Pacers have been involved in blowouts in four of their last five games. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Collison top 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Jose Calderon. In his two games against the Cavaliers this season, Collison put up 45 and 15 fantasy points.
Victor Oladipo is averaging 1.56 fantasy points per minute since returning from injury, but like Collison, his minutes have been down due to the lopsided wins and losses. His price is up across the industry, but I see him as an elite play in a potential shootout against Cleveland. Lance Stephenson and LeBron James have a storied past and his minutes have been trending upward. While I don’t hate the play, I won’t be going there in a nine-game slate.
Myles Turner has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens the door for both Domantas Sabonis and Thaddeus Young. Both players should eclipse 30 minutes tonight against a Cavaliers’ frontcourt that was hammered by the likes of Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, and Pascal Siakam last night. Sabonis and Young are priced up across the industry, but they will help keep their ownership down.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (7 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 (7 of 18)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,000 | $4,900 | 26.9 | -5.6 | 30.1 | -4.3 | 0.89 | 18.4% | 20 | 21 | 11 | |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,500 | $9,000 | 42.5 | 3.1 | 34.2 | -2.8 | 1.24 | 27.2% | 25 | 24 | 24 | |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,300 | $4,200 | 21.1 | -0.4 | 31.1 | -5.0 | 0.68 | 16.3% | 22 | 23 | 19 | |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,900 | $5,400 | 26.6 | -7.3 | 32.2 | -5.4 | 0.83 | 15.3% | 27 | 24 | 27 | |
| Domantas Sabonis | $7,100 | $6,400 | 25.9 | 2.4 | 24.6 | 4.2 | 1.05 | 19.5% | 15 | 11 | 25 | |
| Cory Joseph | $4,200 | $3,900 | 18.5 | 2.9 | 25.6 | 2.1 | 0.72 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Lance Stephenson | $5,000 | $4,700 | 20.2 | 0.9 | 23.6 | 1.9 | 0.85 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo (GPP), Domantas Sabonis (DK)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Domantas Sabonis (FD), Thaddeus Young
Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.0 |  | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 114.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 8 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 24 | 28 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 27 | 30 | 26 | 26 | |
Orlando Magic
The Magic are one of the most frustrating teams in the entire league. They will randomly show up against good teams and get blown out against bad teams. They have basically been my arch nemesis all year, although there are a few candidates up for that award. The Magic come into tonight’s game as 10-point underdogs against the Wizards, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Orlando has an implied total of 104 points, which is the fifth lowest of the slate.
Elfrid Payton has been efficient over his last five games, averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute. The problem is that we don’t know if he’s going to play 25 or 35 minutes. He has GPP-winning type of upside and the ability to crater your lineups. This is shown in his last three games against Washington — 63, 28, and 56 fantasy points. I’ll have a few shares in tournaments, but I can’t quite call Payton a core play tonight.
Evan Fournier and Jonathon Simmons have underwhelmed recently, which has led to a bigger role for Mario Hezonja off the bench. Mario provides some tournament appeal, but I’ve always been more of a Luigi fan. Aaron Gordon is a great fit for the Magic because he has the inconsistency role down as well as anyone. He is a tough sell in cash games where we are looking for a high floor, but you can certainly make a case for him in tournaments. He draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Wizards are ranked 21st in efficiency against power forwards.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,700 | $6,500 | 29.0 | -1.4 | 28.9 | -3.8 | 1.00 | 21.3% | 5 | 12 | 8 | |
| Evan Fournier | $5,500 | $5,500 | 27.9 | -4.8 | 32.5 | -0.1 | 0.86 | 20.5% | 8 | 6 | 11 | |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,500 | $5,000 | 22.6 | -9.6 | 28.5 | -6.8 | 0.79 | 20.2% | 10 | 18 | 1 | |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,100 | $7,700 | 34.6 | -4.8 | 33.3 | 0.2 | 1.04 | 20.8% | 21 | 6 | 17 | |
| Bismack Biyombo | $5,500 | $5,600 | 15.4 | 9.3 | 17.5 | 6.6 | 0.88 | 11.0% | 10 | 8 | 8 | |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,500 | $4,900 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 17.1 | 11.2 | 0.78 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Mario Hezonja (GPP)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have tremendous upside in tonight’s matchup against the Magic. They are playing at home and they get to face one of the worst defenses in basketball. On the season, Orlando is ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The concern is the high spread, but there is plenty of upside in this game if the Magic can stay competitive. The Wizards have the highest projected point differential on the board at +7.6 and they also have the third highest team total.
John Wall is coming off of a huge game against the Jazz and was a great example of why we should trust our first instincts. I wrote him up in the Grind Down as an excellent tournament play, but by the time I started to build lineups, I forgot all about him. He’s in an even better matchup tonight, but we do have to pay a premium for him. Wall is an elite tournament play, but there are slightly better point-per-dollar plays at point guard.
Bradley Beal is a player that I rarely get right. He’s basically a more expensive version of Avery Bradley when I take him. With that said, you couldn’t ask for a better matchup. The Magic are ranked dead last in efficiency against shooting guards. I will likely be avoiding Beal (one of the only biases I have), but I’ll label him as an elite tournament play. Otto Porter should be able to break out of his slump here. His DraftKings salary ($6,000) is awfully tempting.
Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have both seen a boost in minutes recently. Morris is averaging 29 minutes and 28 fantasy points over his last five games, while Gortat is averaging 28 minutes and 26 fantasy points over his last five. Both stand out as solid value plays on FanDuel. The question for the Wizards isn’t whether the matchup is favorable, it’s whether the Magic are going to keep this game close enough for the starters to play a full complement of minutes.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 7.6 (1 of 18)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $10,300 | $9,400 | 41.2 | 10.7 | 34.0 | 5.1 | 1.21 | 28.7% | 27 | 30 | 24 | |
| Bradley Beal | $8,500 | $8,000 | 37.1 | 9.6 | 35.7 | 4.3 | 1.04 | 26.5% | 30 | 28 | 27 | |
| Otto Porter | $7,100 | $6,000 | 30.2 | -5.7 | 31.5 | 2.3 | 0.96 | 16.6% | 29 | 24 | 30 | |
| Markieff Morris | $5,000 | $5,200 | 20.3 | 7.4 | 24.9 | 4.8 | 0.82 | 16.3% | 19 | 28 | 26 | |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,500 | $4,900 | 24.3 | 1.8 | 27.3 | 0.9 | 0.89 | 13.7% | 23 | 22 | 26 | |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,100 | $4,400 | 21.9 | -5.5 | 26.9 | -5.6 | 0.82 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (GPP), Bradley Beal (GPP), Otto Porter (DK), Marcin Gortat (FD)
Secondary Plays – John Wall (Cash), Bradley Beal (Cash), Otto Porter (FD), Marcin Gortat (DK), Markieff Morris (FD)
Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Thabo Sefolosha | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 12 | 27 | 15 | 3 | DvP | 24 | 1 | 14 | 9 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 13 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 8 | |
Utah Jazz
If we only look at the total (205.5 points), this is one of the least appealing games of the slate. We have two defenses ranked 11th or better in defensive efficiency and we are expecting a fairly slow paced game. The Hornets have played well at home this season and are far from an ideal matchup. The Jazz are currently listed as 4-point underdogs on the road with an implied total of only 100.8 points, which is the third lowest mark of the 18 teams in action tonight.
While the spot as a whole isn’t great, there are three Jazz players that deserve consideration tonight. The first is Ricky Rubio, who is still underpriced on FanDuel ($5,100), despite averaging 31 fantasy points over his last five games. The second is Donovan Mitchell, who is projected to be low owned in tournaments. Mitchell has 40+ fantasy point upside, even though his matchup against Nicolas Batum is a difficult one. Derrick Favors is averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game with Rudy Gobert in the lineup and 32.7 per game without him. Favors is affordable on FanDuel ($6,000) and he draws a nice matchup against his former teammate, Marvin Williams.
Notable Injuries
Raul Neto (Out)
Rudy Gobert (Out)
Derrick Favors (Probable)
Rodney Hood (Probable)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 101.0 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (16 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (12 of 18)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,100 | $5,600 | 25.8 | 5.2 | 29.1 | 0.9 | 0.89 | 20.6% | 19 | 18 | 13 | |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,100 | $7,000 | 31.0 | 6.1 | 31.2 | 4.8 | 0.99 | 25.0% | 12 | 12 | 7 | |
| Joe Ingles | $4,800 | $4,800 | 23.5 | 1.7 | 30.7 | 2.8 | 0.76 | 14.6% | 21 | 27 | 9 | |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $4,600 | $4,200 | 18.7 | 5.9 | 21.3 | 1.3 | 0.88 | 15.1% | 21 | 15 | 21 | |
| Derrick Favors | $6,000 | $6,300 | 26.3 | 6.0 | 28.1 | 4.8 | 0.93 | 16.8% | 6 | 3 | 8 | |
| Rodney Hood | $4,900 | $5,100 | 23.8 | -6.1 | 28.4 | -1.3 | 0.84 | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio (FD), Derrick Favors (FD)
Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (DK), Derrick Favors (DK), Donovan Mitchell
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have a much better record at home than they do on the road. While the Jazz still play at a very slow pace, they aren’t nearly as efficient on defense without Rudy Gobert in the lineup. The Hornets come into the game with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. The main issue with the Hornets is that nobody has a great individual matchup. All five of the Jazz starters have above-average defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades and as a whole, the only position that the Jazz have struggled to contain is point guard. Kemba Walker has been on fire over his last five games, averaging 45 fantasy points per contest, but he is priced up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In a nine-game slate, I have a hard time making room in my lineups for any of the Hornets’ players.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (13 of 18)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,500 | $7,600 | 37.4 | 7.6 | 34.6 | -1.5 | 1.08 | 26.7% | 17 | 24 | 9 | |
| Nicolas Batum | $5,300 | $5,500 | 24.3 | -1.6 | 30.9 | -0.8 | 0.79 | 17.4% | 10 | 1 | 9 | |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,400 | $4,000 | 21.4 | -2.5 | 26.3 | -3.4 | 0.81 | 15.6% | 11 | 14 | 10 | |
| Marvin Williams | $3,600 | $3,900 | 18.7 | -3.3 | 25.8 | -4.8 | 0.73 | 12.4% | 15 | 9 | 1 | |
| Dwight Howard | $8,800 | $7,300 | 34.9 | 3.1 | 30.0 | 3.3 | 1.16 | 19.7% | 1 | 13 | 8 | |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,600 | $4,400 | 19.0 | 4.1 | 23.3 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,800 | $5,300 | 26.0 | 2.2 | 26.4 | -2.9 | 0.98 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (DK), Dwight Howard (DK)
Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 27 | 29 | 21 | 28 | DvP | 25 | 20 | 16 | 29 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 1 | 19 | 20 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 16 | 4 | 21 | 13 | |
Brooklyn Nets
We have two subpar teams squaring off tonight in Atlanta, but that doesn’t mean that there won’t be plenty of fantasy production to go around. Both of these teams are ranked in the top 12 in pace of play and in the bottom eight in points allowed per game. The best part is that the spread is set at only three points. We never quite know what’s going to happen when two bad teams play each other, but hopefully this one will stay close. The Nets have an implied total of 104 points, which is two points below their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie was a huge bust the other night against the Pistons, scoring fewer than ten fantasy points for the first time all season. I know because I was aboard that sinking ship. His ownership will take a huge hit tonight, even though he has a dream matchup against Dennis Schroder. His minutes have also been trending upward, as he has played at least 36 in three of his last four games. I’m not going to call Dinwiddie a core play, but I will certainly give him another chance in tournaments.
Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, and Joe Harris would all see a significant boost if DeMarre Carroll is ruled out tonight. If that happens, I would consider Harris to be an elite play on FanDuel, while LeVert and Crabbe would be secondary plays on both sites. If Carroll is active, I will be avoiding all three. This would be a revenge game for Carroll and he was playing well before the injury if you want to give him a look in tournaments. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is typically a favorite target of mine on DraftKings, but he feels a bit overpriced. The one position that the Hawks are decent at defending is power forward.
Notable Injuries
DeMarre Carroll (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.9 (17 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 28.7 | 2.7 | 27.9 | 6.1 | 1.03 | 22.5% | 23 | 19 | 30 |
| Allen Crabbe | $5,600 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 21.3 | 6.9 | 28.7 | 1.3 | 0.74 | 16.4% | 17 | 27 | 1 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $4,800 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 25.3 | -2.3 | 28.8 | 1.7 | 0.88 | 17.8% | 30 | 29 | 19 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,600 | $6,700 | $12,900 | 29.3 | 0.1 | 28.5 | 3.0 | 1.03 | 20.2% | 11 | 21 | 20 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 16.1 | -0.6 | 17.9 | -5.0 | 0.90 | 15.3% | 24 | 28 | 16 |
| Caris LeVert | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.3 | -1.5 | 26.9 | 0.0 | 0.94 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,900 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 17.0 | 3.1 | 24.9 | 4.8 | 0.68 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (Cash), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK), DeMarre Carroll (if active)
Atlanta Hawks
Even though the Nets have slowed their pace of play and have improved on the defensive end of the floor, they are still one of the best matchups for fantasy production. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked fifth in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game. The Hawks come into tonight’s game as 4-point favorites (which is rare) with an implied total of 107 points. Their team total may not look like much compared to the other teams on the schedule, but it is three points higher than their season average.
Marco Belinelli doesn’t play a ton of minutes, but he does have a high usage while on the floor. His absence will give small minute and/or usage bumps to Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, and Malcolm Delaney. While Delaney is best suited as a large-field tournament dart, Schroder and Bazemore are firmly in play in all formats. Schroder has an elite true usage rate and a solid matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 25th in efficiency against point guards. Bazemore has always been productive on a per-minute basis and has a chance to crack the 30 minute mark tonight.
After Schroder and Bazemore, I don’t have a ton of interest in the Hawks. Taurean Prince draws the toughest matchup of the five starters and I have no idea what to expect from this Hawks’ frontcourt now that everyone is healthy. There are too many bodies splitting the minutes for only two positions. If I had to choose one, it would be Ersan Ilyasova. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29 minutes and 31 fantasy points and the Nets have struggled to contain power forwards this season.
Notable Injuries
Marco Belinelli (Out)
DeAndre Bembry (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (10 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,400 | $7,200 | $13,600 | 34.2 | -3.4 | 32.0 | -2.1 | 1.07 | 29.1% | 25 | 25 | 4 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,400 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 28.3 | -2.3 | 28.3 | -1.0 | 1.00 | 19.4% | 24 | 20 | 16 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 26.5 | -1.8 | 31.2 | -0.5 | 0.85 | 17.1% | 3 | 16 | 4 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,600 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 23.4 | 6.8 | 25.8 | 3.8 | 0.91 | 16.6% | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $4,900 | $5,400 | $11,200 | 24.1 | -4.6 | 23.9 | -4.8 | 1.01 | 15.2% | 27 | 29 | 13 |
| John Collins | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 24.5 | -4.9 | 22.2 | -4.5 | 1.10 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Malcolm Delaney | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.5 | 3.1 | 19.0 | 1.0 | 0.71 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore
Secondary Plays – Ersan Ilyasova
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 18 | DvP | 6 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 24 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 11 | 25 | 14 | 12 | 3 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as they head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. This is not only a pace-up spot for Portland, but they are facing a defense that is ranked 24th in defensive efficiency and 21st in rebounding differential. The Blazers have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is two points above their season average.
Damian Lillard played 31 minutes in his first game back from injury and showed no signs of rust, scoring 51 fantasy points. He’s not expected to be on a minute restriction tonight, but I’m not expecting him to play more than 34-36 against the Pelicans. While I like the matchup and the price point, Lillard is more of a deep tournament play in my eyes. There are a handful of point guards that I would rather play in cash games. C.J. McCollum has an excellent matchup, but is overpriced with Lillard back in the lineup.
If Evan Turner is unable to suit up, Maurice Harkless would likely draw the start at small forward. He hasn’t been playing many minutes recently, but is averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute over his last five games. If Turner is out, Harkless could push for 30 minutes and make an excellent value play in all formats. Al-Farouq Aminu offers nice value on DraftKings ($4,500) and will likely see minutes in the low to mid-30s if Anthony Davis is able to suit up. Jusuf Nurkic has been playing some tremendous basketball lately, but he has an awful track record against DeMarcus Cousins. In their last three meetings, he has scored 7, 20, and 13 fantasy points.
Notable Injuries
Evan Turner (Questionable)
Damian Lillard (Probable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 (6 of 18)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,000 | $8,600 | $15,900 | 41.8 | -3.7 | 36.5 | -5.3 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 21 | 17 | 24 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,800 | $7,700 | $14,900 | 33.9 | 6.4 | 36.7 | -1.5 | 0.92 | 24.3% | 28 | 26 | 7 |
| Evan Turner | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 18.4 | 2.0 | 26.8 | -0.1 | 0.69 | 14.9% | 17 | 26 | 29 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 23.0 | -3.4 | 30.4 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 12.6% | 23 | 26 | 2 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,800 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 30.2 | 3.4 | 27.2 | -2.0 | 1.11 | 23.7% | 24 | 18 | 7 |
| Shabazz Napier | $4,400 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 19.1 | 2.7 | 21.1 | 4.4 | 0.90 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Maurice Harkless | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 14.2 | 0.9 | 21.4 | -5.0 | 0.66 | 11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu (DK), Maurice Harkless (if Turner is out)
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans draw one of the most difficult matchups of the slate, but they are at least playing at home. Their implied total is currently set at 109.5 points, which is only a point lower than their season average. With that said, I still don’t love the idea of targeting players against the Blazers. Rajon Rondo is one of the most inconsistent players in fantasy basketball, but he does have tremendous upside when he’s engaged. He has seen a bump in playing time recently and is still a nice buy-low candidate on FanDuel.
Jrue Holiday is an elite play if Anthony Davis is ruled out and an easy fade if Davis is active. Holiday averages ten more fantasy points per game this season with Davis out. Speaking of Davis, he is listed as questionable, but it sounds like the Pelicans are expecting him to play. Given how often he is injured, I will be looking elsewhere in a nine-game slate. DeMarcus Cousins draws a difficult matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked second in efficiency and DvP against centers this season. Overall, I have very little interest in the Pelicans tonight.
Notable Injuries
Anthony Davis (Questionable)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,300 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 25.5 | 0.2 | 25.3 | 1.6 | 1.01 | 17.2% | 3 | 6 | 11 |
| Jrue Holiday | $7,200 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 33.8 | -3.1 | 36.6 | 0.4 | 0.92 | 20.3% | 15 | 17 | 25 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,900 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 22.3 | 0.4 | 32.3 | -0.1 | 0.69 | 14.5% | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Anthony Davis | $10,700 | $9,800 | $19,000 | 49.4 | 1.5 | 35.2 | -0.2 | 1.40 | 23.8% | 7 | 13 | 12 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,000 | $10,800 | $19,300 | 52.6 | -5.0 | 35.7 | 2.4 | 1.47 | 27.2% | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 12.8 | -1.5 | 22.4 | -0.6 | 0.57 | 9.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |