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NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-24 14:31:55

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Orlando Magic
charlottenba Vegas Total 192.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 192.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 96.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Jeremy Lin P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Spencer Hawes Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 20 8 12 16 11 Opp. Season 19 14 14 27 10
Last 3 Weeks 25 4 16 23 24 Last 3 Weeks 24 9 30 24 2

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 19-23 — Road: 4-15 — Last 10: 2-8

Happy Friday everyone! Welcome to another edition of the NBA Grind Down. As always, thanks for reading. We have a nine-game slate on tap tonight. The first game of the night is between two struggling teams in the Hornets and Magic. The Hornets are 3.5-point underdogs with a low implied team total of 94.5 points. This is the fourth lowest total on the board and it is seven points lower than their season average.

The Magic have been stout defensively this season, ranking sixth if points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. While this is not a great matchup on paper, injuries open up a number of different plays on the Hornets. Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller have already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Jeremy Lamb is listed as questionable.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

With Nicolas Batum and possibly Jeremy Lamb out tonight, the Hornets’ offense is going to run through Walker. He provides good upside against the Magic and his price is more than reasonable across the industry. There are better point guard options in cash games, but Walker makes a nice contrarian play for tournaments.

FD — $8,400 — PG
DK — $8,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.3 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 41.1

Jeremy Lin

With Nicolas Batum out, Lin is expected to draw the start at shooting guard. In six starts this season, Lin has averaged 18.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.0 blocks/steals in an 35.3 minutes per game. Lin deserves consideration regardless, but would see an even bigger boost if Jeremy Lamb is also ruled out.

FD — $5,200 — PG
DK — $5,100 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 21.5

Frank Kaminsky

Spencer Hawes is going to start at center, but Kaminsky is a safe bet to play similar or more minutes. He has been in good form recently, averaging 24.8 fantasy points in 27.9 minutes in his last five games. I prefer to use him on FanDuel, as he is PF-eligible tonight.

FD — $4,500 — PF
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 16.7
Min/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 27.9
FP/Game — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 24.8

Spencer Hawes

I’m torn on Hawes tonight. With Cody Zeller out, he is going to draw the start at center. While that opens the door for more minutes, I’m not sure how many we can actually project him to play. If you feel confident that he will see 25+ minutes, he could offer great value. I see him as more of a tournament play tonight.

FD — $3,500 — C
DK — $3,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 12.8
Min/Game — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 18.1
FP/Game — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 12.7

Orlando Magic

Record: 20-21 — Home: 12-10 — Last 10: 2-8

The Magic have lost eight of their last ten games and are now one game below .500 on the season. Despite their recent struggles, they are small favorites tonight at home against the Hornets. The Magic are projected to score 98 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Hornets have been the definition of mediocre on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking between 14th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Victor Oladipo is expected to return to the lineup tonight, after missing two games with a knee injury. It has not been announced whether he will start or come off the bench behind Elfrid Payton.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Vucevic has been in solid form recently, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last five games. His usage may take a small dip with Victor Oladipo back, but he is still one of the top targets at center. He should dominate tonight against a Hornets’ frontcourt that is missing both Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 37.0

Aaron Gordon

Scott Skiles has been hinting at a lineup change for weeks now. Everyone expects Gordon to enter the starting lineup eventually and it sounds like that could happen tonight. If that’s the case, he becomes one of the top value plays on the board. Even if he comes off the bench, he could still be worth a look. He has played at least 27 minutes in three of his last four games.

FD — $4,200 — PF
DK — $4,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 13.3
Min/Game — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 23.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 19.6

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

Harris has been playing elite minutes recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29.6 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. He offers good value tonight on FanDuel, but is more of a secondary play tonight with Victor Oladipo back in the mix.

FD — $5,800 — SF
DK — $6,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.1 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 38.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 29.6

Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Utah Jazz Brooklyn Nets
utahnba Vegas Total 189.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 189.0
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 91.8
Team Pace 93.30 Team Pace 97.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 27 23 19 19 27 Opp. Season 8 3 7 3 5
Last 3 Weeks 29 11 11 27 9 Last 3 Weeks 2 22 8 2 5

Utah Jazz

Record: 18-24 — Road: 6-15 — Last 10: 3-7

The Jazz have lost seven of their last ten games and have played three overtimes in their last two outings. Luckily, they draw an easier matchup tonight against the Nets. The Jazz are listed as 5.5-point favorites with their team total set at 97.3 points.

The Nets are always an exploitable matchup when we expect the game to be competitive. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Derrick Favors is listed as questionable yet again, however, we shouldn’t expect him to play until we hear otherwise.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood have played well recently, but both are a little too expensive tonight. Gobert is the only Jazz player on my radar and he could be considered a borderline elite play on DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nets and he should see minutes in the low to mid-30s.

FD — $7,000 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.3 | Last Five Games: 10.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 31.8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 11-32 — Home: 7-16 — Last 10: 1-9

The Nets have lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to 11-32 on the season. Tonight they draw one of the worst fantasy matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball. The Nets are only projected to score 91.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

With Rudy Gobert back in the lineup, we should consider the Jazz a top three or four defense in the NBA. To make matters worse, they also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. I generally try to avoid taking players against the Spurs, Cavaliers, and Jazz – especially when we have a full slate of games like tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Los Angeles Clippers at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers New York Knicks
laclippersnba Vegas Total 204.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 95.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 11 12 6 9 17 Opp. Season 6 17 16 6 26
Last 3 Weeks 9 13 9 20 17 Last 3 Weeks 5 26 15 5 30

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 27-15 — Road: 12-8 — Last 10: 8-2

The Clippers have won eight of their last ten games, which is an impressive feat with Blake Griffin out. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back though, after losing to the Cavaliers last night. The Clippers are 2-point favorites tonight against the Knicks with their team total set at 103 points.

The Knicks have been an average defensive team this season, ranking 12th in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency. Blake Griffin is getting close to his return, but has already been ruled out of tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan is a tad bit expensive on FanDuel, but sitting at a very playable $7,500 on DraftKings. In his ten starts with Blake Griffin out of the lineup, Jordan has averaged 13.8 points, 14.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 2.4 blocks/steals. He has a high floor and a high ceiling tonight against Robin Lopez and the Knicks.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.6 | Last Five Games: 11.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 38.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 31.9

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

While I’d love to list Paul as an elite play tonight, we have to look at the slate as a whole. It’s going to be tough to fit more than one or two superstars in your lineup tonight. Paul has been on fire recently, but James Harden is my top player to pay up for tonight in cash games. Paul makes a nice tournament play, but I will probably be looking elsewhere in cash games.

FD — $9,800 — PG
DK — $9,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 24.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.3 | Last Five Games: 48.9

Jamal Crawford

Crawford is a viable punt play tonight at shooting guard. His minutes and usage have both been up with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. Over his last five games, Crawford is averaging 22.8 fantasy points in 30.3 minutes per contest.

FD — $4,400 — SG
DK — $4,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 17.7 | Last Five Games: 22.8

New York Knicks

Record: 22-22 — Home: 13-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Knicks have been playing some great basketball recently, winning seven of their last ten games. They are 13-8 at home and are back to .500 overall. Tonight they host the Clippers in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Knicks are projected to score 101 points, which is 1.3 points higher than their season average.

The Clippers may not be the best matchup on the board, but they aren’t a team that we need to avoid taking players against either. On the season, they are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency. Lance Thomas is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, Derrick Williams would see a small fantasy boost.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has played well recently, averaging 37 fantasy points over his last five games. After a big outing against the Jazz the other night, he appears to be over his ankle injury. He is a viable option tonight at small forward, but again, we can only fit so many superstars into our lineup.

FD — $8,900 — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 37.0

Kristaps Porzingis

Porzingis has been in great form recently, averaging 36.3 fantasy points over his last five games. The issue has been his minutes. With Carmelo Anthony in the lineup, Porzingis will likely see 28-32 minutes, which makes him more of a tournament play at his price point.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $7,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 36.3

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Chicago Bulls Boston Celtics
chicagonba Vegas Total 206.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 100.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 9 24 25 18 Opp. Season 28 10 23 16 24
Last 3 Weeks 3 7 25 30 19 Last 3 Weeks 30 17 23 22 18

Chicago Bulls

Record: 24-17 — Road: 8-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have lost five of their last ten games, but are still seven games above .500 this season. The Bulls have been very beatable on the road though, sporting an 8-9 record. They are projected to score 101.8 points tonight, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Celtics have been one of the most efficient defenses in the NBA this season, but their quick pace of play makes them more of an average matchup for fantasy purposes. On the season, they are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 20th in rebounding differential. The Bulls will be without Joakim Noah, Mike Dunleavy, and Kirk Hinrich tonight. Jimmy Butler is listed as probable. He has a bet with a trainer that he can play all 82 games and he fully intends to win that bet.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol

Gasol (and most of the Bulls’ players) put up a dud against the Warriors the other night. Look for him to bounce back tonight against the Celtics, whose frontcourt is undersized. With Joakim Noah out for the season, we can project Gasol to play 32-34 minutes moving forward, which gives him a higher floor than he had earlier in the season.

FD — $8,500 — PF
DK — $8,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 37.5 | Last Five Games: 36.7

Taj Gibson

A lot of people were on Gibson the other night against the Warriors, but the play didn’t make a ton of sense, as the Warriors love to play small. Tonight is a good time to hop back on the Gibson bandwagon, as the Celtics are ranked 25th against power forwards this season. He is a little expensive on DraftKings, but an elite power forward option on FanDuel.

FD — $4,800 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.6 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 29.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.8

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler

Butler didn’t play that well against the Warriors the other night and now draws a difficult matchup against Avery Bradley and the Celtics. I’ve included him here because his price is reasonable on DraftKings. However, if I am spending up on a shooting guard tonight, it is going to be on James Harden.

FD — $8,900 — SG
DK — $8,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 38.1 | Last Five Games: 39.8
FP/Game — Season: 38.0 | Last Five Games: 41.5

Boston Celtics

Record: 22-21 — Home: 11-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Celtics have not played their best basketball recently, losing six of their last ten games. Tonight they host the visiting Bulls in what is expected to be a close, fast-paced game. The Celtics are projected to score 104.8 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board.

It’s a bit surprising how bad the Bulls have been defensively this season. While they are ranked ninth in defensive efficiency, they have allowed the fifth most fantasy points per game. The Celtics are in a good spot as a whole. They will be at full strength tonight, as they are one of the few teams with a blank injury report.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas continues to play well for the Celtics and he continues to fly under the radar in daily fantasy. He is a top tournament target tonight on DraftKings, as he is underpriced at $7,800. He draws a terrific matchup against Derrick Rose and the Bulls, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards this season.

FD — $8,400 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 25.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 34.5

Jae Crowder

If you are stuck and need a small forward in this price range, Crowder is a serviceable play tonight. He’s not a player that I will be starting my lineups with, but he provides a high floor. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.9 fantasy points in 33.8 minutes per contest.

FD — $6,800 — SF
DK — $6,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.7 | Last Five Games: 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 33.8
FP/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 32.9

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Toronto Raptors
miaminba Vegas Total 186.0 torontonba Vegas Total 186.0
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 87.5 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 94.30 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tyler Johnson Gerald Green Justise Winslow Chris Bosh Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 2 11 5 10 16 Opp. Season 5 2 20 2 7
Last 3 Weeks 18 10 6 11 15 Last 3 Weeks 20 3 18 7 14

Miami Heat

Record: 23-20 — Road: 8-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Heat have lost seven of their last ten games and have more injuries than a 40 year and up men’s basketball rec team. They are large underdogs tonight against the Raptors on the road. Miami is only projected to score 89 points, which is easily the lowest team total on the board.

The Raptors have been very good defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. As far as the Heat’s injuries, hopefully you have a minute, because this may take a while. Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts, and Chris Andersen are all out tonight. Beno Udirh is also expected to miss the game, as he is listed as doubtful.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

With so many injuries to the Heat, this could be a nice source of value. Tyler Johnson, Gerald Green, Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, and Chris Bosh should all log heavy minutes. It could be a similar situation to the Suns last night where the matchup wasn’t great, but the starters still reached value thanks to how many minutes they played.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 27-15 — Home: 13-6 — Last 10: 8-2

The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and are now 27-15 on the season. They are currently listed as 11-point favorites against the Heat, but that spread will likely go up now that the entire Heat team is basically out. This is not a great matchup overall, as the Raptors are only projected to score 98.5 points.

The Heat won’t be the same dominant defense with Hassan Whiteside out, but that shouldn’t impact their pace of play. They are the second slowest paced team in the NBA, which really hurts the fantasy production of their opponents. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan could be interesting low-owned tournament plays, but I will be avoiding all Raptors tonight in the potential blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious