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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-11 02:41:17

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Charlotte Hornets
orlandonba Vegas Total 206.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 14 17 16 28 22 Adj. DvP 24 18 12 12 26
DRPM -0.84 -0.66 2.43 0.76 2.98 DRPM -0.70 -0.69 -0.69 -0.57 0.61

Orlando Magic

We have a smaller slate than usual for a Friday, but there are still eight games and plenty of big contests across the industry. The Magic are coming off of a win against the Bulls, but still have lost six of their last ten games. They draw a difficult matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked inside the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Orlando has an implied total of 99.3 points, which is the second lowest in the slate.

A lot of tonight’s slate hinges on one player – Nikola Vucevic. If he is unable to suit up, the Magic starting five would all become viable options once again. I’m happy to announce that Elfrid Payton and I are officially out of the friend zone. After scoring 66 fantasy points on Wednesday, we have taken our relationship to the next level. It always feels good to be on the right side of Payton, but I’m hopping off the bandwagon tonight. His price is all the way up to $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s still averaging less than 30 minutes per game in his last five. Evan Fournier is also coming off of a big game, but his price didn’t take the same leap as Payton’s. If Vucevic is out, Fournier will be on my radar in all formats. Terrence Ross is still $4,500 on FanDuel, despite averaging 34 minutes and 22 fantasy points in his last five games. Aaron Gordon has strung together some nice fantasy outings and would also become a borderline elite play without Vucevic in the lineup. Bismack Biyombo struggled against the Bulls on Wednesday, but scored 28 and 35 fantasy points in his previous two games. As long as Vucevic is out again, we can go back to the Biyombo well on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,000 $7,000 0.94 29.1 0.5 27.3 9.9 25.3% -2.6% 14 -0.84
Evan Fournier $5,600 $5,700 0.77 33.3 1.4 25.6 1.5 24.0% -0.4% 17 -0.66
Terrence Ross $4,500 $5,200 0.74 23.7 10.4 17.5 4.3 18.6% -2.1% 16 2.43
Aaron Gordon $5,600 $5,900 0.77 27.8 2.0 21.3 5.3 19.7% 3.0% 28 0.76
Bismack Biyombo $4,900 $5,500 0.76 23.6 6.1 18.0 2.7 13.2% 1.2% 22 2.98

Elite Plays (Assuming Vucevic is Out) – Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross (FD), Aaron Gordon (FD), Bismack Biyombo (FD)

Secondary Plays (Assuming Vucevic is Out) – Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross (DK), Aaron Gordon (DK), Bismack Biyombo (DK)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost six of their last ten games and are a full three games out of the playoff picture in the East. Even though they have had their struggles, they draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic at home. On the season, Orlando is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets come into the game with an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the eighth highest in the slate and 2.6 points above their season average.

I’ve been off of Kemba Walker for the last few games because his price went way up because of three cupcake matchups against the Nuggets, Lakers, and Suns. To my detriment, he also put up at least 40 fantasy points against the Heat and Pacers as well. It’s time to start believing in this hot streak and I love the matchup at home against the Magic, who are ranked 24th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Walker is my favorite point guard play above $6,000 tonight. Nicolas Batum has taken a backseat to Walker recently, but carries some GPP appeal tonight at home against Evan Fournier. Frank Kaminsky, Miles Plumlee, and Johnny O’Bryant have all been ruled out of tonight’s contest. We can expect big minutes for Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller. Of the two, I prefer Zeller, who averaging 0.86 fantasy points per minute this season. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb could also see a bump in minutes tonight with the Hornets being so short-handed.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,400 $8,100 1.06 34.7 1.3 36.9 6.9 30.2% 2.9% 24 -0.70
Nicolas Batum $7,200 $6,900 0.93 34.8 -0.6 32.5 -4.3 23.9% 1.8% 18 -0.69
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,400 $4,900 0.79 29.5 -2.7 23.3 0.6 14.3% 1.8% 12 -0.69
Marvin Williams $5,900 $5,600 0.75 29.6 5.9 22.2 6.8 16.3% -2.6% 12 -0.57
Cody Zeller $5,100 $5,200 0.86 27.0 2.0 23.2 -0.1 16.5% -1.9% 26 0.61
Jeremy Lamb $3,800 $3,300 0.92 18.0 2.7 16.6 -2.8 22.4% -6.1% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Cody Zeller

Secondary Plays – Marvin Williams, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeremy Lamb (GPP)

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Minnesota Timberwolves
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 213.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 109.3 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- -1.8 Pace +/- 4.0
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Patrick McCaw Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 5 7 10 4 20 Adj. DvP 16 13 14 23 12
DRPM 0.89 0.39 -2.40 3.46 -0.98 DRPM 0.14 -0.96 -1.30 4.76 3.77

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors suffered a rare loss at home the other night against the Celtics. They need to be careful in the final month of the season, as the Spurs have cut their lead to two games for first place in the West. Tonight the Warriors head to Minnesota to take on a Wolves’ team that has played well since the All-Star break. A lot of it has to do with Kevin Durant being out, but the Warriors’ implied total (109.3) is 7.8 points below their season average. Of the 16 teams in action tonight, that is the second worst mark in the slate.

While the negative projected point differential isn’t great news, the Warriors are still projected to score 109 points in a game without Kevin Durant. The Wolves have been tough on point guards and shooting guards this season, but Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can get hot in any matchup. I see them both as secondary cash game plays and elite tournament plays. Thompson shoots the ball much better at home, but he did have a big game against the Wolves earlier this season. I expect Matt Barnes to play a few extra minutes tonight, as the Warriors will want to use his defense on Andrew Wiggins. That should also lead to around 30 minutes for Andre Iguodala, who is averaging 23 fantasy points in his last five games. Draymond Green may not see a big usage boost with Durant out, but the production has been up since his injury. Over his last five games, Green is averaging 37 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,200 $9,900 1.21 33.6 1.6 40.6 1.5 30.6% 2.5% 5 0.89
Klay Thompson $6,900 $7,000 0.88 34.2 1.1 30.1 -3.5 24.4% 1.8% 7 0.39
Patrick McCaw $3,600 $3,700 0.55 13.7 11.7 7.6 8.1 12.6% -2.9% 10 -2.40
Draymond Green $8,100 $8,000 1.07 32.9 2.9 35.3 2.2 19.0% 0.2% 4 3.46
Zaza Pachulia $4,300 $3,800 0.96 18.5 -1.7 17.8 -1.1 15.5% 4.7% 20 -0.98
Andre Iguodala $5,100 $5,100 0.72 26.1 4.0 18.8 4.5 12.4% 1.0% 10 N/A
Matt Barnes $4,200 $3,500 0.75 24.6 -9.2 18.4 -6.9 16.2% -0.6% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (GPP), Klay Thompson (GPP), Draymond Green (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (Cash), Klay Thompson (Cash), Draymond Green (Cash), Andre Iguodala

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have won six of their last ten games and have really shown up against elite teams in the last few weeks. The fact that they are only listed as 5.5-point underdogs against the Warriors says a lot about the way that they’ve been playing. Even though Golden State plays at a torrid pace, they are one of the best defenses in terms of efficiency. The Wolves have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is slightly lower than their season average.

Ricky Rubio defied all odds and put up a monster game against Chris Paul on Wednesday. He has been in great form since the All-Star break and is averaging 37 fantasy points in his last five games. Rubio is one of those players that we shouldn’t worry too much about the matchup, as most of his fantasy points come from peripheral stats anyway. Andrew Wiggins has had a string of difficult matchups, but has breakout potential tonight against the Warriors. If you are considering Wiggins tonight, then you want the Warriors to start Patrick McCaw, who has a DRPM of -1.30 this season. I may not pull the trigger in cash games, but I will certainly have some Wiggins’ exposure in tournaments. This is not the type of game for Gorgui Dieng, as he doesn’t really fit when the Warriors’ play small ball. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 52 fantasy points in his last five games and has a decent track record against the Warriors this season. On a night when everyone is going to pay down at center, using Towns in tournaments will help create a unique lineup construction.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $7,100 $6,900 0.88 32.3 1.4 28.5 8.3 20.4% 3.0% 16 0.14
Brandon Rush $3,500 $3,000 0.47 19.5 7.4 9.1 3.3 10.4% -1.6% 13 -0.96
Andrew Wiggins $7,700 $7,400 0.87 37.2 -0.7 32.2 -1.4 28.0% 2.9% 14 -1.30
Gorgui Dieng $5,600 $5,200 0.80 31.9 -0.7 25.4 3.0 14.9% 1.5% 23 4.76
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,600 $10,600 1.22 36.7 1.5 44.7 6.9 27.1% -0.3% 12 3.77
Shabazz Muhammad $3,700 $3,600 0.70 19.5 -0.6 13.7 1.9 19.5% 5.0% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (Cash), Karl-Anthony Towns (Cash)

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Milwaukee Bucks
indiananba Vegas Total 206.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- -1.3 Pace +/- 0.0
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 5 18 21 25 Adj. DvP 15 20 23 16 11
DRPM -0.56 -0.98 0.19 2.05 -0.02 DRPM -0.16 -0.54 -0.27 2.15 2.19

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games, but are still in danger of falling out of the playoff picture. There are four teams in the East fighting for the last two spots in the playoffs and this game features two of them. Tonight’s game could end up being the difference maker when all is said and done. In terms of potential fantasy production, a matchup against the Bucks is mediocre. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency. Indiana has an implied total of 101.8 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate. I’m not particularly bullish on any Pacers’ players tonight. The Bucks are ranked inside the top five against point guards and shooting guards and Paul George will likely draw the defense of Giannis Antetokounmpo. A case can be made for Thaddeus Young on DraftKings ($4,200) after playing 34 minutes against the Pistons. Myles Turner is also underpriced on DraftKings if you want to give him a look in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,000 $6,500 1.02 32.4 -2.0 33.1 -3.0 26.2% -1.4% 4 -0.56
C.J. Miles $4,100 $4,000 0.73 23.4 3.4 17.2 3.3 17.5% 0.6% 5 -0.98
Paul George $7,900 $7,800 1.00 35.2 -1.7 35.1 3.6 27.8% 2.6% 18 0.19
Thaddeus Young $4,900 $4,200 0.77 30.2 -7.6 23.3 -8.2 16.1% 2.2% 21 2.05
Myles Turner $6,300 $5,400 0.98 30.8 -1.6 30.1 -5.9 19.1% -6.3% 25 -0.02
Monta Ellis $4,600 $3,700 0.65 26.9 -1.6 17.4 0.2 18.3% 4.5% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young (DK), Myles Turner (DK)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are making a strong push for the postseason, winning four games in a row and seven of their last ten. A win against the Pacers would be huge, as they would jump them in the standings. This is an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, as Indiana is ranked 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks come into the game as 3-point favorites with an implied total of 104.8 points.

Malcolm Brogdon has been effective when given playing time in his rookie season, but has played less than 23 minutes in back-to-back games. With eight games on the schedule tonight, I don’t think we need to look at Brogdon in any format. Khris Middleton is finally priced correctly on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While it feels like we are paying a premium, the price isn’t bad for a player that is averaging 33 fantasy points in his last five games. The minute restriction is off and I actually prefer Middleton over Giannis Antetokounmpo when you factor in their salaries. With that said, you can still play Giannis tonight, especially on DraftKings, where he is $10,100 and small forward eligible. Greg Monroe is always on my radar for tournaments. In two games against the Pacers this season, he is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $4,800 $5,000 0.78 25.8 2.6 20.0 0.6 20.5% 0.7% 15 -0.16
Tony Snell $4,100 $3,800 0.52 28.9 1.8 15.0 2.2 11.8% 2.4% 20 -0.54
Khris Middleton $6,800 $6,600 1.00 25.9 4.8 26.0 7.4 24.0% -0.3% 23 -0.27
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,100 $10,100 1.31 35.5 -0.1 46.4 1.8 29.3% -2.3% 16 2.15
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.85 8.2 3.5 7.0 0.7 17.7% 1.4% 11 2.19
Greg Monroe $6,300 $5,800 1.12 22.3 3.9 25.0 2.2 23.7% -0.2% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK)

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD), Greg Monroe (GPP)

Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Atlanta Hawks
torontonba Vegas Total 201.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 99.3 Team Total 101.8
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- -1.5
Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 21 28 5 8 Adj. DvP 7 6 9 8 7
DRPM -2.83 -0.84 2.41 3.36 2.66 DRPM -2.79 -2.38 1.18 0.60 0.14

Toronto Raptors

It seems like the Raptors have been struggling, but they’ve actually won six of their last ten games. They haven’t been a great team to target in DFS though, as they have slowed their pace of play down and relied more on their defense since Kyle Lowry’s injury. Tonight they head to Atlanta in what is expected to be a low scoring game against the Hawks. This is not an ideal matchup, as the Hawks are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Raptors have an implied total of only 99.3 points, which is the second lowest in the slate. They also have the worst projected point differential at -8.5.

I plan to have very little exposure to Toronto tonight, but you can look to their backcourt in tournaments. Cory Joseph draws an excellent matchup against Dennis Schroder, who has a DRPM of -2.83 on the season. Joseph doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he provides a nice floor if you are looking for a cheap point guard for cash games. DeMar DeRozan has been dreadful in his last two outings. Teams are starting to send double teams his way and forcing his teammates to beat them. I like DeRozan’s price on DraftKings, but would only use him in tournaments. The Hawks have an excellent perimeter defender in Thabo Sefolosha. DeMarre Carroll is questionable again tonight. If he is unable to play, P.J. Tucker and Norman Powell would become intriguing punt plays. I will not be targeting either of the Raptors’ bigs against Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard, who may be the best defensive frontcourt duo in basketball.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,000 $5,300 0.73 23.8 8.8 17.3 5.6 20.3% -1.8% 22 -2.83
DeMar DeRozan $9,700 $8,500 1.11 35.6 0.0 39.6 -4.0 33.9% -3.6% 21 -0.84
DeMarre Carroll $4,000 $3,800 0.65 27.3 -1.2 17.8 -3.6 15.1% -2.2% 28 2.41
Serge Ibaka $6,800 $6,300 0.92 31.0 3.2 28.4 0.6 20.3% 0.6% 5 3.36
Jonas Valanciunas $5,400 $4,800 0.98 26.3 -4.8 25.8 -3.8 19.0% 2.6% 8 2.66
Norman Powell $4,000 $4,300 0.74 17.5 3.7 13.0 7.2 20.0% 2.5% 21 N/A
P.J. Tucker $4,100 $4,000 0.66 28.3 -0.8 18.6 -3.4 12.1% -0.8% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan (DK), P.J. Tucker and Norman Powell (if Carroll is out)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are currently three games behind the Raptors for the fourth seed in the East. If they want to have any chance of catching them, they need a win tonight at home. This is not he best spot for fantasy purposes, as Toronto is ranked eighth in points allowed per game. Since acquiring Serge Ibaka, they have been close to a top five defense. Even at home, the Hawks have an implied total of only 101.8 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate and 2.2 points below their season average.

The Hawks have been a favorite target of mine in their last few games, but I’m not sure this is the matchup to load up on their players. The Raptors are ranked ninth or better in adjusted DvP against all five positions on the floor. Dennis Schroder’s price has come up across the industry, although he does have an intriguing matchup against Cory Joseph, who is a much worse defender than Kyle Lowry. Thabo Sefolosha should play 30+ minutes tonight, as he will likely be tasked with defending DeMar DeRozan. Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway have flashed some upside recently, but both are tournament fliers at best in an eight game slate. Paul Millsap remains cheap on DraftKings. He is in play for cash games, but I don’t love the matchup against Serge Ibaka. I usually like to target Dwight Howard in tournaments, but tonight I find myself paying up or paying down at center in most of my lineups.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,100 $6,800 0.95 31.0 1.3 29.6 3.1 29.9% 1.4% 7 -2.79
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $4,400 0.75 27.3 0.0 20.5 -0.9 20.8% 2.0% 6 -2.38
Thabo Sefolosha $3,900 $4,200 0.72 26.1 6.0 18.8 3.4 13.8% -2.0% 9 1.18
Paul Millsap $7,900 $7,400 1.05 34.2 3.8 35.8 2.6 24.9% 1.0% 8 0.60
Dwight Howard $7,100 $6,900 1.12 29.4 1.1 32.8 0.8 18.1% -0.6% 7 0.14
Tim Hardaway $5,700 $5,800 0.79 25.7 5.3 20.4 8.2 22.6% 2.1% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap, Dennis Schroder (GPP), Thabo Sefolosha

Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Chicago Bulls
houstonnba Vegas Total 224.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 224.0
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 114.8 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- 3.0
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Bobby Portis Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 26 10 11 26 3 Adj. DvP 13 22 25 22 29
DRPM 0.23 -0.10 1.99 -0.14 0.28 DRPM 1.68 -1.47 1.41 -0.34 0.63

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have lost two games in a row, but can’t really move up or down in the standings. They are basically locked into the three seed in the West, so health will be more important than anything down the stretch. Houston heads to Chicago tonight to take on the Bulls, who haven’t been great defensively over the last couple of weeks. On the season, Chicago is ranked seventh in points allowed per game, but Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned with the matchup. The Rockets have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the highest in the slate.

James Harden has averaged five less fantasy points per game since the Rockets acquired Lou Williams. I tend to think that it’s an aberration more than anything, but Williams is a ball-dominant player like Harden. Odds are that the Bulls will put Jimmy Butler on Harden, which is obviously a difficult matchup. Harden is close to matchup-proof, but I’m not sure I can pay close to $12,000 for him tonight, at least not in cash games. I was hoping that Ryan Anderson would be out again, because I’d be interested in Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon. However, Anderson is expected to play, so I will likely be avoiding all three. Patrick Beverley has quietly averaged 26 fantasy points in his last five games and is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. We know that the Bulls have struggled against point guards this season. Clint Capela is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He is averaging a shade under 27 minutes in his last five games and the Bulls typically play with two bigs on the floor at all times.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,500 $5,100 0.84 30.6 1.3 25.6 0.5 16.4% -1.8% 26 0.23
James Harden $11,800 $11,600 1.47 36.5 0.3 53.6 -3.4 38.7% -0.9% 10 -0.10
Trevor Ariza $4,900 $4,500 0.72 34.4 -0.3 24.8 -6.2 14.5% -1.3% 11 1.99
Ryan Anderson $4,700 $4,400 0.72 30.3 -4.6 21.8 -4.9 17.2% 1.5% 26 -0.14
Clint Capela $5,300 $5,200 1.09 23.5 3.5 25.5 3.5 19.2% 2.4% 3 0.28
Lou Williams $5,600 $5,000 1.09 24.1 -1.7 26.2 -7.2 30.1% -4.3% 10 N/A
Eric Gordon $5,000 $5,000 0.80 30.7 1.9 24.6 -4.2 23.0% -5.6% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Clint Capela (GPP)

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Patrick Beverley, Clint Capela (GPP)

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls would be in the playoffs if the regular season ended today, but they have the Heat and the Bucks right on their tail. Depending on how tonight’s games shake out, they could find themselves on the outside looking in. Even though Chicago is listed as a 5.5-point underdog tonight, their matchup against the Rockets is a favorable one. In addition to being the fourth fastest paced team in the NBA, Houston is ranked 24th in points allowed per game. The Bulls have the second best projected point differential in the slate at +7.0.

There are too many bodies splitting minutes at point guard in Chicago, especially now that Dwyane Wade is back in the mix. We saw the Bulls throw out some two point guard lineups the other night, but I doubt we see that with Wade back. It sounds like Wade is a full go tonight, so feel free to target him in tournaments. My guess is that he will see Patrick Beverley and that the Rockets will opt to put James Harden on whoever the Bulls roll out there at point guard. Jimmy Butler struggled in the second half against Orlando, but finds himself in a breakout spot tonight. I expect his ownership to be down with Wade back, so this is the perfect time to target Butler in tournaments. I hate trying to predict the power forward minutes in Chicago, but the matchup is a favorable one. I plan to have some shares of both Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,700 $3,400 0.69 16.4 0.1 11.3 2.6 17.4% -2.0% 13 1.68
Dwyane Wade $7,700 $6,800 1.06 30.5 1.0 32.5 -7.8 30.8% -4.6% 22 -1.47
Jimmy Butler $9,100 $9,400 1.12 36.8 0.1 41.2 -4.6 28.9% -2.6% 25 1.41
Bobby Portis $4,100 $4,400 0.81 13.7 11.2 11.1 10.0 18.0% 0.7% 22 -0.34
Robin Lopez $4,800 $4,500 0.78 28.1 0.8 22.0 0.2 17.0% 4.9% 29 0.63
Nikola Mirotic $3,900 $3,900 0.80 22.7 -2.6 18.3 -4.3 18.9% -1.7% 22 N/A
Rajon Rondo $5,000 $5,100 0.90 26.1 -2.5 23.5 0.9 22.4% 5.0% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (Cash), Dwyane Wade (DK), Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious