NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-03-23 19:35:30

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

It’s Friday.

We made it. I always like to start my day with a laugh. If you are a fan of “The Office” (everyone should be) and/or of Kanye West, you have to see this two minute video describing Kanye’s albums over the years. As far as basketball is concerned, we have ten games on the schedule. As always, I highly recommend targeting teams that have something to play for or individual players with something to prove. Without further adieu, let’s get to the first game.

Denver Nuggets at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		107.5					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.7					Pace Projection +/-		-0.4
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Will Barton	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic		Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	14	11	20	5	6		DvP	26	5	17	25	18
DRPM Rat.	7	14	2	20	9		DRPM Rat.	27	26	22	3	11

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets picked up a much-needed win over the Bulls on Wednesday, but still find themselves two games behind the Jazz and Timberwolves for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. They will treat tonight’s game against the Wizards as a must-win. While the matchup isn’t ideal, the game features a 2.5-point spread and a healthy total of 217.5 points. The Nuggets have an implied total of 107.5 points, which is right around the average of the 20 teams in action tonight.

Jamal Murray is overpriced and draws a difficult matchup against Tomas Satoransky, who is an underrated defender (at least by popular opinion). Will Barton will continue to soak up minutes at shooting guard with Gary Harris out. He may draw the defense of Otto Porter (that’s what I would do if I were the Wizards’ coach), but Barton will play 35+ minutes at a reasonable price point. Wilson Chandler is a low usage player, but the minutes have certainly been in his favor. Over his last five games, he has averaged 38 minutes and 32 fantasy points.

Paul Millsap is currently listed as questionable with an illness. He’s one of the tougher players in the NBA, so I expect him to suit up. If that’s the case, he makes an intriguing tournament play against the Wizards, who are ranked 21st in efficiency against power forwards. If Millsap is ruled out, Mason Plumlee would become an elite value play in all formats. My two favorite centers to pay up for tonight are Nikola Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns. For whatever reason, Jokic is much cheaper on FanDuel ($9,300), while Towns is the better buy on DraftKings ($9,800). In a must win game, I expect Jokic to play 35+ minutes, regardless of Millsap’s availability.

Notable Injuries

Gary Harris (Out)
Paul Millsap (Questionable)

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 109.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (16 of 20)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Mason Plumlee (if Millsap is out)

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap (GPP – if active), Will Barton, Wilson Chandler

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and have dropped to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings. With the Raptors, Celtics, and Cavaliers looking like the top three seeds, the Wizards will try their best to get up to the fourth or fifth seed. They draw a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. Washington has an implied total of 110 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and three points above their season average.

While the Wizards need a win and have a favorable matchup, there isn’t a lot to love from a fantasy perspective. The two players that I have the most interest in are Tomas Satoransky and Bradley Beal. Satoransky has the best matchup of the five starters, as the Nuggets are ranked 28th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. If you have read the Grind Down often in the past, you are probably familiar with my frustration with Beal — the struggle is real. I never seem to be on the right side of him, but he sees a major boost with Gary Harris out for Denver. Will Barton and Wilson Chandler are both below-average defenders.

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Out)
Jodie Meeks (Questionable)
Mike Scott (Questionable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.3 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (9 of 20)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tomas Satoransky (DK GPP), Bradley Beal (FD GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tomas Satoransky (DK Cash), Bradley Beal (FD Cash)

Los Angeles Clippers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		217.0					Vegas Total		217.0
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		107.0					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.2					Pace Projection +/-		1.7
Projected Starters	Milos Teodosic	Austin Rivers	Wesley Johnson	Tobias Harris	DeAndre Jordan		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	4	14	11	26		DvP	15	29	27	21	24
DRPM Rat.	19	1	24	5	12		DRPM Rat.	18	24	3	18	8

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are still fighting for their playoff lives and the Pacers are trying to get home-court advantage in the first round, so both teams in this game have a lot at stake. We have a three-point spread and a total of 217 points. With that said, the Pacers are better defensively than most people realize. On the season, they are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. The Clippers have an implied total of 107 points, which is 2.5 points below their season average.

The best way to attack the Pacers is down low. They have been tough on point guards and shooting guards, ranking eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to both positions. Austin Rivers is going to play 35+ minutes, but I’m not sure this is going to be his most efficient outing. I have more interest in Lou Williams, who is priced down on FanDuel ($6,800). Tobias Harris has been a popular target over the last few weeks, but I’ve had a hard time getting on board. He is priced in the mid-$7,000 range, despite averaging 32 fantasy points over his last five outings. DeAndre Jordan is by far my favorite play from the Clippers. He is coming off of a 25-point, 22-rebound performance against the Bucks and draws a similarly favorable matchup against the Pacers, who are ranked 21st in efficiency and 26th in DvP against centers.

Notable Injuries

Danilo Gallinari (Out)

Los Angeles Clippers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (17 of 20)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeAndre Jordan (FD), Lou Williams (FD GPP)

Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan (DK), Lou Williams (FD Cash), Austin Rivers, Tobias Harris

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games, but have been passed by the Sixers in the standings. Indiana would love to host a first-round playoff series, especially given the fact that they will likely be facing the Sixers in the first round. Tonight’s matchup against the Clippers is an exploitable one. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers have an implied total of 110 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate.

This is a good spot for the Pacers as a whole, but I don’t love any of their players in cash games. For tournaments, this is a great game to target, as it should go under-owned. Darren Collison is no longer priced at a discount, but he should play 30-32 minutes in a favorable matchup. Victor Oladipo has yet to break out of his slump, but his price is down and the Clippers have allowed the second most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Lance Stephenson has 28-30 minute upside, but as evidenced by the last game, he also has a low floor. Thaddeus Young has been playing well, but has the toughest matchup of the five starters. Myles Turner has plenty of upside at his price point. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he could see 32-34 minutes with Domantas Sabonis out of the lineup.

Notable Injuries

Domantas Sabonis (Out)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.6 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 (5 of 20)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (6 of 30)

Elite Plays – Lance Stephenson (FD GPP)

Secondary Plays – Lance Stephenson (FD Cash), Darren Collison (GPP), Victor Oladipo (GPP), Myles Turner (GPP)

Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							New York Knicks
			Vegas Total		225.5					Vegas Total		225.5
			Vegas Spread		-7.0					Vegas Spread		7.0
			Implied Team Total		116.3					Implied Team Total		109.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.5
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Andrew Wiggins	Nemanja Bjelica	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Emmanuel Mudiay	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Michael Beasley	Enes Kanter
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	17	23	15	12		DvP	17	19	2	8	10
DRPM Rat.	30	16	20	25	28		DRPM Rat.	18	N/A	9	12	24

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have lost five of their last ten games and are clinging onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have a lot more to play for at this point of the season than the Knicks, but the game is being played in New York. We have a seven-point spread, so hopefully this one stays competitive throughout. The Wolves have a massive implied total of 116.3 points, which is the third highest on the board and six points above their season average.

Jeff Teague is priced up across the industry, which should keep his ownership under 10% in tournaments. He offers plenty of upside against the Knicks, who are ranked 24th in DvP against point guards. I tend to avoid players that rely heavily on scoring and Andrew Wiggins certainly fits the mold. There are better shooting guard targets for both cash games and tournaments. Nemanja Bjelica has been the chalk at small forward for the last few weeks, but that could change after his dud against the Clippers. This matchup sets up much better for him, as the Knicks are ranked 29th in efficiency against small forwards. Bjelica should get back to his 36-40 minute role and his price on FanDuel ($5,800) is more than palatable.

Jamal Crawford offers decent value at shooting guard, but he’s typically a better play in smaller slates where we don’t have as many options. Dollar for dollar, I would rather play Justin Holiday at a discount. Taj Gibson used be a player that I locked into my FanDuel lineup every night, but his recent form makes him an easy fade in all formats. Karl-Anthony Towns has been playing close to 40 minutes a night recently. While the Knicks are a good rebounding team, they do not have a good low-post defender. This is a blowup spot for KAT and I love his price point on DraftKings ($9,800).

Notable Injuries

Derrick Rose (Out)

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 110.0 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.3 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 6.3 (2 of 20)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nemanja Bjelica (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Secondary Plays – Nemanja Bjelica (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD), Jeff Teague (GPP)

New York Knicks

Targeting players from teams with nothing to play for is a bit like playing with fire. Those that rostered Tyreke Evans and/or Dennis Schroder can certainly attest to this. The Knicks have no incentive to win at this point, but they do draw a favorable matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Knicks have an implied total of 109.3 points, which is the ninth highest of the slate and five points above their season average.

The high team total is enticing, but who can we trust on the Knicks right now? Emmanuel Mudiay and Trey Burke are stuck playing minutes in the low to mid-20s. Michael Beasley will play 20 minutes one game and 35 minutes the next. He offers plenty of upside for tournaments, but I certainly don’t feel great about the play. Enes Kanter finally saw a full complement of minutes against the Heat and he responded with a 49-fantasy point outing. This seems like a matchup where they will need his size, but Kyle O’Quinn can come off the bench and steal his minutes at any time. The safest play is probably Tim Hardaway, who is the only player on the Knicks to average more than 30 minutes over the last five games. Steer clear of the Knicks in cash games, but feel free to take some shots on them in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Lance Thomas (Out)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0 (4 of 20)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway (GPP), Michael Beasley (GPP), Enes Kanter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (Cash), Michael Beasley (Cash), Enes Kanter (Cash)

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		221.5					Vegas Total		221.5
			Vegas Spread		12.0					Vegas Spread		-12.0
			Implied Team Total		104.8					Implied Team Total		116.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		1.4
Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Jarrett Allen		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	3	5	7	19		DvP	28	10	12	27	30
DRPM Rat.	3	24	5	13	18		DRPM Rat.	29	21	4	14	26

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have been playing their best basketball of the season. With no incentive to lose (they don’t own their first-round pick), they are actually trying to win basketball games. The problem is twofold — they have one of the deepest rotations in the NBA and they draw an awful matchup against the Raptors. On the season, Toronto is ranked seventh in points allowed per game. In addition to being double-digit underdogs, the Nets come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest implied total (104.8 points) of the slate.

We have a bad matchup to begin with and the potential for the game to turn into a blowout. Even if I knew that this game was going to stay competitive, I still wouldn’t feel great about any of the Nets’ players in a ten-game slate. D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, and DeMarre Carroll are all cutting into each other’s minutes and fantasy production. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is my favorite play of the bunch, but the Raptors have held power forwards to the seventh-fewest fantasy points this season.

Notable Injuries

None

Brooklyn Nets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.2 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (15 of 20)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors currently hold a 4.5-game lead over the Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference. They are not going to catch the Warriors for the best record in basketball and with Boston hobbling, they should be locked into the number one seed. I fully expect Toronto to start limiting their starter’s minutes or even start resting players. As for tonight’s matchup, this is a favorable one. The Raptors have an implied total of 116.8 points, which is the second highest on the board and four points above their season average.

The name of the game here is tournament plays only. With a 12-point spread, the Raptors are risky cash game targets. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both viable tournament plays if you are making multiple lineups, but I don’t see either as core targets tonight. I have more interest in Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet as cheap tournament punts, especially if C.J. Miles is unable to suit up. Miles is a high usage bench player that would open up more shots for the likes of Wright and VanVleet. We saw Dwight Howard post a 30/30 game against the Nets the other night, so it’s hard not to have interest in Jonas Valanciunas in large-field GPPs.

Notable Injuries

C.J. Miles (Questionable)

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.8 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (6 of 20)

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (FD GPP), Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Fred VanVleet (GPP), Delon Wright (GPP)

Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns							Cleveland Cavaliers
			Vegas Total		229.0					Vegas Total		229.0
			Vegas Spread		13.0					Vegas Spread		-13.0
			Implied Team Total		108.0					Implied Team Total		121.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		3.2
Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Dragan Bender	Alex Len		Projected Starters	George Hill	Rodney Hood	LeBron James	Jeff Green	Kevin Love
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	22	29	18	21		DvP	30	30	24	30	27
DRPM Rat.	26	29	25	16	19		DRPM Rat.	25	28	29	27	21

Phoenix Suns

This is one of those games that you have to get right if you are going to win tournaments tonight. It features a massive total of 229 points, but likely has the most blowout potential of any game in the slate. The Suns have no incentive to win at this point of the season and could be without their two best players, as Devin Booker and T.J. Warren are both questionable. Phoenix has a high implied total (108), but there isn’t a lot we can break down until we know the status of Booker and Warren.

Elfrid Payton is not playing enough minutes to warrant consideration. Even with Booker and Warren out on Wednesday, he only played 22 minutes in a blowout loss. Booker and Warren would both become excellent tournament plays if active. If one or both are ruled out, Josh Jackson would become an intriguing play in all formats. Jackson would likely play 30+ minutes regardless of the game’s outcome. Dragan Bender and Alex Len provide good upside at their respective price points and should be low owned in tournaments.

Notable Injuries

Tyson Chandler (Out)
T.J. Warren (Questionable)
Devin Booker (Questionable)

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 104.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (7 of 20)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.4 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Josh Jackson (GPP – if Booker and/or Warren are out)

Secondary Plays – Josh Jackson (Cash – if Booker and/or Warren are out), Devin Booker & T.J. Warren (GPP – if active), Dragan Bender (GPP), Alex Len (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers

If I had the opportunity to see the box score of any team tonight and could only see the minute breakdown, I would pick the Cavaliers. This is one of the most difficult games to predict that I can remember this season. On paper, we should like the Cavaliers in a matchup against the Suns, who are ranked dead last in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The problem is that Cleveland is listed as a 13-point favorite, which is a number that could go up if Devin Booker and/or T.J. Warren are ruled out.

The Cavaliers still have a lot to play for, but they would like to get LeBron James some rest before the playoffs start. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Cleveland rest one of their starters tonight, especially if Booker and Warren are out. Rodney Hood and Larry Nance both participated in shoot-around, which could add two more bodies to the rotation. I honestly have no idea what to expect with this rotation. There will be four or five players that reach or exceed value from Cleveland, but figuring out which ones is the difficult part. Before making any final decisions, I need an update on which players are going to be available tonight. Not only for the Cavaliers, but for the Suns as well. For an update, tune into my Grind Down video that is usually posted around 6:00 PM ET.

Notable Injuries

Kyle Korver (Out)
Cedi Osman (Out)
Rodney Hood (Questionable)
Tristan Thompson (Questionable)
Larry Nance (Questionable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 110.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 121.0 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 10.2 (1 of 20)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.9 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.7 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

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