NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 2nd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | James Ennis | Blake Griffin | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 27 | 23 | 26 | 23 | DvP | 10 | 10 | 25 | 19 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 24 | 30 | 22 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 7 | |
Detroit Pistons
Congratulations on making it through another workweek. We kick tonight’s ten-game slate off with the Pistons and Magic in a game that may get overlooked by the masses. Detroit clearly has the better draw of these two teams, as Orlando is ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. If the Suns are the Coors Field matchup of the NBA, the Magic are like Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out to center (can you tell that I’m excited for baseball to start?). The Pistons have an implied total of 108 points, which is nearly five points higher than their season average.
Ish Smith has quietly played well over his last five games, averaging 29 minutes and 28 fantasy points. In addition to his elite matchup against the Magic, his price has come down on DraftKings ($5,300). There are plenty of options available in this slate, but Smith is on my short list of targets at point guard. Reggie Bullock is the preferred wing to target on Detroit, but that’s not exactly saying much. I prefer the likes of Denzel Valentine, David Nwaba, and Jeremy Lamb at similar price points.
What on earth do we do with Blake Griffin? This is some kind of slump. Not only has he shot the ball poorly, but playing next to Andre Drummond has cut into his rebounding rate. With that said, Griffin’s price is all the way down to $7,400 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Magic are as good of a slump-busting matchup as any, so I will be taking a few shots on Griffin in tournaments. Drummond has 20-20 type of upside in this matchup. Orlando is ranked 26th in efficiency against centers and 29th rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Reggie Jackson (Out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (6 of 20)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,300 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 22.6 | 5.5 | 24.7 | 4.1 | 0.91 | 22.6% | 29 | 30 | 18 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 17.0 | 4.9 | 26.4 | 3.2 | 0.64 | 13.3% | 26 | 27 | 24 |
| James Ennis | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 14.9 | -1.6 | 22.8 | -3.4 | 0.65 | 11.6% | 27 | 23 | 30 |
| Blake Griffin | $7,400 | $7,400 | $14,200 | 39.0 | -14.0 | 34.1 | -2.1 | 1.14 | 27.4% | 17 | 26 | 22 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,500 | $9,900 | $17,500 | 46.2 | -2.6 | 33.3 | -1.3 | 1.39 | 18.8% | 26 | 23 | 7 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 13.9 | -1.5 | 21.2 | -0.4 | 0.65 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 18.8 | 1.9 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.67 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ish Smith (DK), Blake Griffin (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Blake Griffin (Cash), Andre Drummond (Cash), Reggie Bullock
Orlando Magic
The Magic own their first-round draft pick in 2018, so every win from here on out will cost them a shot at moving up in the lottery. They are currently tied with the Grizzlies for the fewest number of wins (18) in the league. Their matchup against the Pistons doesn’t look great on paper, but they are playing at home and Detroit hasn’t been as effective on the defensive end of the floor after their big trade. The Magic have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
For the longest time, the Magic were a great source of value. They’ve been bit hard by the injury bug, but are finally starting to get healthy. The latest addition to the rotation is Jonathan Isaac, who is expected to be active and play close to 15 minutes tonight. With so many healthy bodies, I don’t see any of the Magic players as elite options. The three that deserve consideration in tournaments are Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic. With this game featuring such a low spread, we can expect a full complement of minutes from Orlando’s starters.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Probable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (16 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.1 (15 of 20)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Augustin | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 17.4 | 4.6 | 21.6 | 7.0 | 0.80 | 18.2% | 23 | 10 | 16 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,800 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 27.7 | 0.0 | 32.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 21.0% | 3 | 10 | 25 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,900 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 23.2 | 1.4 | 29.0 | 1.2 | 0.80 | 19.5% | 22 | 25 | 26 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,700 | $7,300 | $14,400 | 34.6 | 1.2 | 33.6 | -3.6 | 1.03 | 21.3% | 14 | 19 | 25 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,500 | $7,600 | $13,800 | 37.8 | -3.7 | 29.8 | -0.8 | 1.27 | 22.8% | 15 | 5 | 7 |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 17.6 | 10.4 | 19.8 | 4.7 | 0.89 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Shelvin Mack | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 15.7 | 1.8 | 18.3 | 1.7 | 0.86 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (GPP), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 14 | DvP | 14 | 11 | 24 | 14 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 26 | 1 | 25 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 15 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 9 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have lost five of their last ten games and are currently four games behind the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte has not played well on the road this season and they draw a difficult matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and first in rebounding differential. There are only a handful of teams that have implied totals below their season average and the Hornets are one of them.
Kemba Walker price has come down to a playable level, but he’s an easy fade against Ben Simmons. Not only does he have the second best DRPM of any point guard in basketball, but the Sixers as a whole are ranked first in efficiency against the position. Nicolas Batum has been playing well, but he’ll likely draw the defense of Robert Covington. We have to take a wait and see approach with Jeremy Lamb. While he didn’t play well in the absence of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist on Wednesday night, he did log 25 minutes. If MKG is ruled out, Lamb would become an elite tournament play and a borderline cash game option.
Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky are decent sources of value in smaller slates, but we should be able to find better options tonight. Dwight Howard minutes have taken a big hit recently, averaging only 26 minutes per game in his last five. While that’s a concern, there are two reasons why we might expect his playing time to increase tonight. The first is a matchup against Joel Embiid (the Hornets will need Howard’s defense and rebounding on the floor) and the second is the fact that Cody Zeller is questionable. At the very least, Howard should be on your radar in tournaments tonight, especially if Zeller is ruled out.
Notable Injuries
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Questionable)
Cody Zeller (Questionable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (17 of 20)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,800 | $7,800 | $14,200 | 38.1 | -1.2 | 34.7 | -3.9 | 1.10 | 27.3% | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Nicolas Batum | $7,300 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 27.1 | 10.2 | 31.4 | -1.5 | 0.86 | 18.7% | 23 | 20 | 26 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,700 | $3,800 | $8,500 | 19.4 | -5.6 | 25.7 | -6.9 | 0.76 | 14.8% | 13 | 20 | 1 |
| Marvin Williams | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 19.3 | -1.6 | 25.9 | -1.2 | 0.75 | 13.0% | 8 | 16 | 25 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,500 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 37.1 | -2.0 | 30.6 | -4.2 | 1.21 | 19.4% | 5 | 14 | 2 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,700 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 24.3 | -2.7 | 24.8 | -0.9 | 0.98 | 21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 19.1 | 5.3 | 23.2 | 0.4 | 0.83 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb (GPP – if MKG is out)
Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (Cash – if MKG is out), Dwight Howard (GPP)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Cavaliers in Cleveland last night. They are now 33-27 on the season and only two games behind the Wizards for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight’s matchup against the Hornets looks mediocre on paper, but Charlotte has struggled on the road the entire season. The Sixers come into the game with an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the sixth highest overall and two points above their season average.
Ben Simmons has plenty of upside, so I won’t talk anyone out of playing him in tournaments. Personally, there are quite a few superstars that I would rather play in this slate. J.J. Redick minutes have been hurt by the acquisition of Marco Belinelli, who is playing 24-26 minutes a night off the bench. Robert Covington is an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings. He played well against the Cavaliers last night and the Hornets are ranked 26th in efficiency against small forwards.
Ersan Ilyasova made his Sixers’ debut last night and played 18 minutes. He’s just another healthy body that will soak up minutes off the bench. The only Sixers’ player that piques my interest tonight is Joel Embiid. People will be hesitant to target him in the second half of a back-to-back without actually diving into the numbers. Embiid has played in the second half of back-to-backs three times this season, averaging 33 minutes and just under 50 fantasy points per game. He’s more than affordable on DraftKings ($9,400) and should come with low ownership.
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Probable)
Justin Anderson (Questionable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (13 of 20)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,900 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 41.4 | -1.7 | 34.6 | -3.6 | 1.20 | 23.2% | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| J.J. Redick | $4,900 | $5,200 | $10,700 | 25.0 | -5.8 | 31.4 | -4.6 | 0.80 | 19.6% | 6 | 11 | 15 |
| Robert Covington | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 27.1 | -6.3 | 32.2 | -2.0 | 0.84 | 15.0% | 26 | 24 | 9 |
| Dario Saric | $7,100 | $6,400 | $13,900 | 27.9 | -2.7 | 30.6 | -1.5 | 0.91 | 18.4% | 24 | 14 | 15 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,700 | $9,400 | $17,100 | 45.5 | 2.1 | 31.2 | -1.5 | 1.46 | 27.9% | 11 | 16 | 9 |
| T.J. McConnell | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 20.6 | -4.8 | 24.3 | -1.1 | 0.85 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 17.9 | -3.8 | 23.5 | 1.2 | 0.76 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,500 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 21.8 | -2.2 | 25.3 | -4.6 | 0.86 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (DK)
Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (FD GPP), Robert Covington (DK)
Golden State Warriors at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 226.5 |  | Vegas Total | 226.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -13.0 | Vegas Spread | 13.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 119.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | JaVale McGee | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | John Collins | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 19 | 30 | 28 | 29 | DvP | 15 | 24 | 6 | 25 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 11 | 18 | 1 | 21 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have won four games in a row but still trail the Rockets for the honor of having the best record in the NBA. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Hawks and their fantasy appeal is boosted by the fact that the game is being played in Atlanta. While a 13-point spread is never ideal, it’s certainly lower than it would be at home. The Warriors have an implied total of 119.8 points, which is the highest on the board and four points above their season average. As I always say, predicting blowouts is difficult and I tend to ignore them if there is enough upside.
The four stars for the Warriors will all be in the lineup tonight. When you couple that with the high spread, it should lead to low ownership for Stephen Curry. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the board, as he squares off against Dennis Schroder, who is arguably the worst on-ball defender in basketball. Curry has massive upside in this matchup and his ownership won’t reflect it. Klay Thompson offers decent upside in tournaments, but is not a player that I’m looking to force into my lineups. The absence of Shaun Livingston and Patrick McCaw may not seem like much, but we can bump the minute projection for Andre Iguodala into the upper 20s and potentially give him a small usage bump as well.
Kevin Durant draws the best matchup of the five starters if we are looking strictly at efficiency (30th) and DvP (30th). He’s been in good form recently, but his price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Much like his teammates, Durant is best suited as a tournament play. Draymond Green has averaged 36 minutes and 41 fantasy points over his last five games. The Hawks do not defend the paint well and are ranked 26th in rebounding differential this season. Green is safer than Blake Griffin and considerably cheaper than Ben Simmons if you are considering paying up at power forward.
Notable Injuries
Patrick McCaw (Out)
Shaun Livingston (Out)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 116.1 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 119.8 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (10 of 20)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,400 | $9,800 | $18,700 | 44.6 | -1.4 | 32.9 | 0.5 | 1.35 | 27.7% | 20 | 20 | 30 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,500 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 30.1 | -3.7 | 34.1 | 0.9 | 0.88 | 20.1% | 14 | 19 | 2 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,200 | $10,200 | $18,200 | 47.2 | 0.6 | 34.4 | 0.1 | 1.37 | 25.9% | 30 | 30 | 27 |
| Draymond Green | $8,100 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 37.5 | 3.3 | 32.9 | 2.8 | 1.14 | 16.9% | 20 | 28 | 12 |
| JaVale McGee | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 1.22 | 15.5% | 21 | 29 | 13 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,300 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 18.3 | 1.8 | 25.5 | -0.1 | 0.72 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Young | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 10.2 | -1.4 | 14.3 | -0.5 | 0.71 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (GPP), Draymond Green (GPP), Kevin Durant (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (Cash), Draymond Green (Cash), Kevin Durant (Cash), Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks will be busy prepping for the draft this offseason. In addition to their own first round pick, they also have the first round picks from the Rockets and Wolves. They are in full rebuilding mode (tank mode), as they take on the defending champion Warriors. This is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production. While Golden State is good from an efficiency standpoint, they play at the league’s second-fastest pace. The Hawks have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is three points above their season average.
Dennis Schroder is the Hawks’ best chance of keeping this game competitive. With the tank in progress, that could actually hurt his fantasy appeal. It doesn’t help that Tyler Dorsey, Isaiah Taylor, and Malcolm Delaney are all playing significant roles off the bench. Kent Bazemore has been quiet over his last five games, but warrants consideration in large-field tournaments given his upside. One lesson that we’ve learned the hard way is no matter the form is to never trust Taurean Prince in cash games. John Collins has the most fantasy appeal here, but he is priced up enough that I will look elsewhere at power forward.
Notable Injuries
DeAndre’ Bembry (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (13 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (11 of 20)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,100 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 33.5 | -5.4 | 31.1 | -1.7 | 1.08 | 29.3% | 13 | 15 | 22 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,600 | $5,400 | $11,200 | 27.5 | -3.8 | 27.8 | -0.4 | 0.99 | 20.0% | 4 | 24 | 11 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,400 | $6,000 | $11,700 | 23.9 | 4.9 | 29.9 | 0.6 | 0.80 | 17.4% | 9 | 6 | 18 |
| John Collins | $6,300 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 24.3 | 3.0 | 22.6 | 4.5 | 1.08 | 15.6% | 10 | 25 | 1 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 23.2 | -0.6 | 23.4 | 0.3 | 0.99 | 14.8% | 21 | 20 | 21 |
| Tyler Dorsey | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 13.4 | 8.6 | 0.72 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Muscala | $4,200 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 15.0 | 4.6 | 17.2 | 5.0 | 0.87 | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (GPP), John Collins (GPP)
Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Dwight Powell | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Zach LaVine | David Nwaba | Lauri Markkanen | Cristiano Felicio | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 28 | 16 | 24 | 21 | DvP | 21 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 12 | 26 | 12 | 26 | 30 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 4 | |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks and Bulls have both given up on the season and are now looking to the future. We’ve seen both teams cut down on their veterans’ minutes over the last few games and that should be a trend that continues the rest of the way. As for the Mavericks’ matchup, this is a favorable one. The Bulls are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Dallas has an implied total of 107 points, which is five points higher than their season average.
The closer we get to the end of the season, the less I am willing to play veterans on teams with nothing to play for. While Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea, and Dirk Nowitzki all have nice matchups tonight, I’m hesitant to look their way in cash games. If you feel confident that they will play a full complement of minutes, feel free to fire them up in tournaments. Personally, I am looking at the two younger players — Dennis Smith and Dwight Powell. Smith has an elite true usage rate (26.5%) and a solid matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 25th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Powell has played 32 and 37 minutes in the last two games, scoring 27 and 42 fantasy points. His price is palatable on FanDuel ($5,600), which puts him on my radar in cash games and tournaments. Keep an eye on Nerlens Noel, as he could be a sneaky value play moving forward.
Notable Injuries
None
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.9 (5 of 20)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,200 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 27.3 | -2.3 | 29.4 | 1.1 | 0.93 | 26.5% | 25 | 25 | 12 |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 23.7 | -1.0 | 34.0 | -1.7 | 0.70 | 16.4% | 30 | 28 | 26 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,200 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 30.0 | -0.8 | 34.4 | -1.7 | 0.87 | 21.5% | 24 | 16 | 12 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $5,400 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 24.1 | 2.7 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 0.96 | 18.5% | 27 | 24 | 26 |
| Dwight Powell | $5,600 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 19.3 | 10.0 | 20.4 | 9.1 | 0.95 | 13.9% | 20 | 21 | 30 |
| J.J. Barea | $6,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 24.6 | 8.5 | 23.5 | 5.0 | 1.04 | 25.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nerlens Noel | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.95 | 11.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,200 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 19.2 | -0.6 | 29.0 | -1.8 | 0.66 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Smith (GPP), Dwight Powell (FD)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith (Cash), Dwight Powell (DK), Wesley Matthews (GPP), Harrison Barnes (GPP)
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have been one of the most upfront of the teams that are tanking. Unlike the Kings, they have actually told us their plans on when they are going to rest players. Justin Holiday and Robin Lopez have both been ruled out of tonight’s game and while Jerian Grant will be active, he is not expected to see the floor. The Mavericks may play at a slow pace, but they are still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency and 30th in rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is two points above their season average.
Kris Dunn has played 30 minutes in back-to-back games, so we can safely say that he is no longer on a minutes restriction. I love picking on Dennis Smith, as he is one of the worst defenders at point guard. As a whole, the Mavericks are ranked 26th in efficiency against point guards. Zach LaVine is a little too rich for my blood, at least on FanDuel. He offers upside, but is my fourth or fifth favorite play from the Bulls tonight. I have plenty of interest in the two small forwards – David Nwaba and Denzel Valentine. Nwaba should see minutes in the low 30s and Valentine should play 28-30 minutes. Both are viable tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 25th in efficiency against small forwards.
Cameron Payne has been terrific on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.16 FP/min. While we can’t project him to play more than 18-20 minutes in this one, he’s worth a look on DraftKings at a price of only $3,500. I really want to play the Bulls’ bigs in this matchup. The Mavericks have an under-sized frontcourt and are the worst rebounding team in basketball. The problem with Cristiano Felicio is that Chicago may not need his size in this matchup. The Mavericks play very few lineups with a true center on the floor. This could be great news for Bobby Portis and Lauri Markkanen, who are both on my radar in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Paul Zipser (Out)
Robin Lopez (Out)
Justin Holiday (Out)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (16 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (14 of 20)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $6,700 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 32.6 | -7.0 | 29.4 | -2.0 | 1.11 | 24.3% | 26 | 21 | 29 |
| Zach LaVine | $7,900 | $7,100 | $12,500 | 29.0 | 0.7 | 26.7 | 4.5 | 1.09 | 28.9% | 8 | 9 | 26 |
| David Nwaba | $4,800 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 17.5 | 9.3 | 22.4 | 7.7 | 0.78 | 12.6% | 25 | 13 | 29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,000 | $6,000 | $11,600 | 27.7 | -5.4 | 30.4 | 0.1 | 0.91 | 19.1% | 4 | 18 | 24 |
| Cristiano Felicio | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 0.66 | 11.1% | 24 | 12 | 4 |
| Bobby Portis | $6,600 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 24.7 | 6.1 | 21.3 | 2.5 | 1.16 | 23.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.2 | 0.9 | 27.7 | -1.0 | 0.80 | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cameron Payne | $4,100 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 20.4 | 0.0 | 18.6 | 0.0 | 1.10 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn, Denzel Valentine, David Nwaba (FD), Lauri Markkanen (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Zach LaVine (DK), Cameron Payne (DK)
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.5 | Vegas Spread | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.3 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Cory Joseph | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Sterling Brown | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 26 | DvP | 9 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 1 | 27 | 8 | 19 | |
Indiana Pacers
We arrive at one of my least favorites games on the schedule. The Pacers are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, but will have their hands full with a Bucks’ team that has really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor. After being a bottom ten defense earlier in the year, Milwaukee is now ranked 12th in points allowed per game this season. The Pacers have the third lowest implied total (105.3 points) and the third lowest projected point differential (-1.6) of the slate.
Cory Joseph underwhelmed in his first few starts for Darren Collison, but has picked up his play recently. Over his last five games, he has averaged 30 minutes and 23 fantasy points. The price point is reasonable, but I don’t love the matchup against Eric Bledsoe. Victor Oladipo remains underpriced on DraftKings ($8,900) and he’s been under-owned in tournaments for quite some time. I’m not sure I’d use him in cash games with so many great superstars in this slate, but Oladipo is an excellent GPP play.
Targeting Myles Turner is not for the faint of heart. After his 50 fantasy point outing against the Mavericks, he followed it up with a 15 fantasy point outing against the Hawks. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, he offers plenty of upside against the Bucks, who are ranked dead last in efficiency against centers this season. Turner doesn’t fit the mold of what most consider a cash game play, but he’s on my short list of cash game targets at center on FanDuel ($6,000).
Notable Injuries
Darren Collison (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (18 of 20)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 18.3 | 5.1 | 26.4 | 3.8 | 0.69 | 14.7% | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Victor Oladipo | $10,000 | $8,900 | $16,700 | 43.0 | 7.7 | 34.3 | -1.4 | 1.25 | 27.5% | 19 | 8 | 1 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,300 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 21.1 | 3.9 | 30.8 | 3.5 | 0.68 | 16.4% | 7 | 2 | 24 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,400 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 27.5 | 7.6 | 32.7 | -0.2 | 0.84 | 15.3% | 1 | 9 | 2 |
| Myles Turner | $6,000 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 29.7 | -1.1 | 28.0 | -2.0 | 1.06 | 17.7% | 30 | 26 | 6 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,500 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.3 | -2.4 | 25.4 | 0.2 | 1.04 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,800 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 21.4 | 2.6 | 23.4 | 0.0 | 0.91 | 19.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Myles Turner (FD), Victor Oladipo (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (DK), Victor Oladipo (DK Cash), Cory Joseph
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have lost three games in a row and have dropped down to seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight’s matchup against the Pacers is mediocre, as Indiana is ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the eighth highest of the slate and four points above their season average.
I was thrilled on Wednesday when I saw Giannis Antetokounmpo at 10% ownership in tournaments. He then proceeded to post one of his worst fantasy performances of the last two seasons. He did leave the game late thanks to an eye injury but is expected to suit up tonight. His ownership should be low once again, making him a nice tournament pivot off of the other superstars in the slate. Eric Bledsoe should play minutes in the mid-30s at a reasonable price point on DraftKings ($7,200).
With Matthew Dellavedova and Tony Snell unlikely to play, Khris Middleton should log as many minutes as he can handle. While his matchup against Victor Oladipo is less than ideal, Middleton’s price point on DraftKings ($6,700) is intriguing. Jabari Parker played 26 minutes and 17 minutes in the back-to-back set on Tuesday and Wednesday. If he can push for 26-28 minutes tonight, he has the potential to hit 6x-7x. John Henson has the best matchup of the five starters and is priced down on DraftKings ($4,600) if you need some savings at center.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Doubtful)
Tony Snell (Doubtful)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (8 of 20)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,600 | $7,200 | $15,400 | 33.1 | 3.5 | 31.1 | 4.1 | 1.06 | 23.7% | 5 | 9 | 23 |
| Sterling Brown | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 11.2 | 3.7 | 15.3 | 4.6 | 0.73 | 12.3% | 21 | 7 | 1 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 34.4 | -4.0 | 36.6 | -1.7 | 0.94 | 22.4% | 8 | 12 | 27 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,000 | $10,100 | $17,700 | 52.3 | -1.7 | 37.1 | 1.6 | 1.41 | 28.2% | 16 | 12 | 8 |
| John Henson | $5,600 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 23.8 | -3.2 | 25.5 | 2.7 | 0.93 | 13.1% | 27 | 28 | 19 |
| Jabari Parker | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 18.1 | 3.0 | 19.5 | 1.8 | 0.93 | 21.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |