NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 31st
Jump to Page 1 2 3
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 204.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.0 | Team Total | 105.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.5 | Pace +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Proj. Starter | Cory Joseph | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 11 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | Adj. DvP | 12 | 9 | 24 | 13 | 24 | |
DRPM | -2.45 | -2.04 | 1.09 | 0.62 | 0.16 | DRPM | 0.01 | -1.86 | 0.01 | 2.39 | 2.20 |
Indiana Pacers
- Notable Injuries:
Glenn Robinson (Out)
- Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (19 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (19 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (17 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.5 (15 of 22)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.6 (6 of 30)
The Pacers currently hold a one game lead over the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, so every game will be treated as a must win moving forward. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who have been the best defensive team in the NBA since the All-Star break. The Pacers have an implied total of only 99 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate and 5.3 points below their season average. The only player with a decent matchup is Jeff Teague, but point guard is loaded with viable plays in this 11 game slate. Paul George and Monta Ellis have flashed some upside in recent weeks, but both are overpriced in this matchup. The Pacers are an easy fade on a night with so many options.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeff Teague | $7,000 | $6,400 | 1.01 | 32.2 | -1.4 | 32.6 | -2.2 | 26.3% | 0.3% | 11 | -2.45 |
Monta Ellis | $4,500 | $4,500 | 0.67 | 27.0 | 3.0 | 18.1 | 3.8 | 18.3% | -0.3% | 4 | -2.04 |
Paul George | $8,900 | $8,000 | 1.02 | 35.5 | 1.9 | 36.2 | 8.5 | 28.2% | 2.1% | 4 | 1.09 |
Thaddeus Young | $4,500 | $4,800 | 0.76 | 30.0 | -3.3 | 22.8 | -2.4 | 15.9% | 0.7% | 5 | 0.62 |
Myles Turner | $6,500 | $6,000 | 0.96 | 31.1 | 1.7 | 29.9 | 2.2 | 18.8% | -2.2% | 8 | 0.16 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Toronto Raptors
- Notable Injuries:
NONE
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 107.2 (9 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (12 of 22)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (22 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.3 (12 of 22)
- Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.8 (16 of 30)
The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games thanks to their stifling defense since the All-Star break. The acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker have helped defensively, but they have also slowed the pace of play down without Kyle Lowry in the lineup. Their matchup against the Pacers is a slightly favorable one, as Indiana is ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency. The Raptors are listed as 6-point favorites with an implied total of 105 points.
Cory Joseph is coming off of potentially his best five-game stretch of the season, averaging 34 minutes and 27 fantasy points. While he grades out as a decent value play, I’d rather find the few hundred extra dollars to go up to Ish Smith and/or T.J. McConnell. DeMar DeRozan is one of my favorite sleepers tonight. He should get overlooked in a slate that features James Harden and a number of value shooting guard. DeRozan’s usage rate is through the roof with Kyle Lowry out and he is averaging 47 fantasy points in his last five games. Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, and P.J. Tucker are secondary plays at best in this slate.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cory Joseph | $5,400 | $5,400 | 0.74 | 25.0 | 9.3 | 18.4 | 8.4 | 20.5% | -0.5% | 12 | 0.01 |
DeMar DeRozan | $9,200 | $8,500 | 1.12 | 35.4 | 2.8 | 39.6 | 7.7 | 34.1% | 1.8% | 9 | -1.86 |
DeMarre Carroll | $3,800 | $3,600 | 0.67 | 26.7 | -5.7 | 17.9 | -5.1 | 15.2% | -1.0% | 24 | 0.01 |
Serge Ibaka | $5,600 | $5,600 | 0.89 | 30.7 | -1.4 | 27.3 | -2.2 | 20.4% | 1.7% | 13 | 2.39 |
Jonas Valanciunas | $5,500 | $5,200 | 0.98 | 25.9 | -1.3 | 25.4 | -2.5 | 18.9% | -3.8% | 24 | 2.20 |
P.J. Tucker | $4,100 | $4,300 | 0.66 | 27.9 | 3.3 | 18.5 | 3.6 | 11.9% | -1.2% | 24 | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan
Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph
Denver Nuggets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 219.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 108.8 | Team Total | 110.8 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.7 | Pace +/- | 1.8 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Jameer Nelson | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Nikola Jokic | Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 15 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 16 | Adj. DvP | 28 | 29 | 17 | 10 | 12 | |
DRPM | -0.94 | -0.37 | 2.21 | 0.28 | 3.08 | DRPM | -0.66 | -2.19 | 0.29 | -1.45 | 1.93 |
Denver Nuggets
- Notable Injuries:
Darrell Arthur (Out)
- Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (14 of 22)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.7 (13 of 22)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.3 (18 of 30)
The Nuggets appeared to be a shoe-in for the eight seed in the Western Conference, but trail the Blazers (—->Trailblazers) by a game and a half. They will be treating every game as a must win moving forward. Tonight they draw a mediocre matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked slightly above the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Nuggets have the eighth highest implied total in the slate (108.8 points), but it is 2.7 points below their season average.
The Nuggets have been a favorite team to target in the DFS community this season, but only when they are missing players. When fully healthy, they have a very deep rotation. In fantasy basketball, we want to be able to predict minutes and that becomes tough with teams that have so many good players. I’m not particularly interested in any of the Nuggets outside of Wilson Chandler and Nikola Jokic on DraftKings. Chandler is averaging 34 minutes in his last five games and is only $6,000, while Jokic is averaging 40 fantasy points in his last five games and is only $9,100. The rest of the Nuggets are priced appropriately.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jameer Nelson | $5,100 | $5,000 | 0.73 | 27.2 | 2.9 | 19.8 | 1.4 | 19.1% | -2.8% | 15 | -0.94 |
Gary Harris | $6,100 | $5,500 | 0.78 | 30.5 | 1.9 | 23.9 | 1.5 | 19.2% | 0.5% | 27 | -0.37 |
Danilo Gallinari | $6,600 | $5,900 | 0.82 | 33.5 | -3.2 | 27.5 | 0.3 | 19.8% | 3.2% | 20 | 2.21 |
Wilson Chandler | $6,700 | $6,000 | 0.88 | 31.3 | 2.9 | 27.7 | -2.2 | 22.4% | -3.7% | 17 | 0.28 |
Nikola Jokic | $10,000 | $9,100 | 1.30 | 27.4 | 4.0 | 35.7 | 4.9 | 25.3% | 0.9% | 16 | 3.08 |
Will Barton | $6,100 | $4,700 | 0.88 | 28.4 | -2.8 | 25.0 | 1.3 | 22.6% | 1.9% | 27 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Wilson Chandler (DK), Nikola Jokic (DK)
Charlotte Hornets
- Notable Injuries:
NONE
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.8 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 (4 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (19 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.8 (5 of 22)
- Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.3 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.8 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.9 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.0 (27 of 30)
The Hornets are still technically alive in the playoff hunt, but they are three games back with only seven to play. They would need to win out and a lot of help from the teams ahead of them in the standings. Tonight’s game against the Nuggets is important for both teams and Vegas is expecting a shootout. The The Hornets are listed as 2-point favorites with the over/under set at 219.5 points. The Hornets have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate.
Kemba Walker is a streaky player and he has played well in his last five games, averaging 38 fantasy points per contest. The Nuggets are one of the best possible matchups for a point guard, as they play at a quick pace and are ranked 28th in adjusted DvP. Walker is an elite play in all formats on FanDuel and an elite tournament play on DraftKings. Nicolas Batum has really struggled over the last two weeks, but draws a tremendous matchup against Denver and is priced at a steep discount on FanDuel ($6,300). I expect him to get overlooked with all of the options at shooting guard. This may be the deepest the shooting guard position has been all season. Marvin Williams continues to log big minutes and is worth a look in tournaments as a low-owned option. Frank Kaminsky has 30 minute upside and is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $7,600 | $8,100 | 1.05 | 34.6 | 1.0 | 36.5 | 1.2 | 30.3% | 1.1% | 28 | -0.66 |
Nicolas Batum | $6,300 | $6,900 | 0.93 | 34.3 | -3.7 | 32.0 | -6.0 | 24.2% | 2.1% | 29 | -2.19 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,600 | $4,800 | 0.79 | 29.1 | -2.3 | 22.9 | -4.5 | 14.2% | -0.5% | 17 | 0.29 |
Marvin Williams | $6,400 | $6,100 | 0.78 | 30.5 | 4.2 | 23.7 | 4.2 | 16.1% | -3.0% | 10 | -1.45 |
Cody Zeller | $4,900 | $5,000 | 0.84 | 27.7 | 2.3 | 23.3 | 2.3 | 15.8% | -2.5% | 12 | 1.93 |
Frank Kaminsky | $5,400 | $5,100 | 0.82 | 26.2 | 0.9 | 21.6 | -0.5 | 21.5% | -0.5% | 10 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum (FD GPP)
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (FD Cash), Marvin Williams (GPP), Frank Kaminsky, Cody Zeller
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
Orlando Magic | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 217.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.5 | Vegas Spread | -10.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 103.5 | Team Total | 114.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.4 | Pace +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Terrence Ross | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Al Horford | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 17 | 13 | 12 | 23 | 21 | Adj. DvP | 26 | 23 | 15 | 26 | 22 | |
DRPM | -4.25 | -1.04 | 1.14 | 3.54 | 1.58 | DRPM | -0.49 | -0.81 | -1.30 | -0.79 | 2.03 |
Orlando Magic
- Notable Injuries:
Jeff Green (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Questionable)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 100.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (14 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.9 (8 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (15 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.4 (8 of 22)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.4 (15 of 30)
The Magic have lost seven of their last ten games and have the second worst record in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics used to be a matchup that we could exploit, but they have really picked up their play on the defensive end of the floor. They are now ranked above the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Vegas doesn’t seem to care though, as the Magic’s implied total is actually 2.9 points above their season average.
At this point of the season, the Magic should not be targeted in cash games, at least not in an 11 game slate. The risk of a blowout is too great to trust any of them in a cash game setting. With that said, Elfrid Payton is an outstanding tournament play. There are two things to look for with Payton – 1. Does he have a good matchup? and 2. Does the opponent have an elite rim protector? The answers to those questions are yes and no. Isaiah Thomas is the worst defender in the entire NBA and Al Horford is not a great rim protector. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross have been up and down this season, but both would see a boost if Aaron Gordon (questionable) is unable to suit up. Nikola Vucevic should be able to dominate the paint tonight, as the Celtics are ranked 21st against centers and 26th in rebounding differential. However, like Payton, he should only be used in tournaments.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elfrid Payton | $7,100 | $7,400 | 0.96 | 29.3 | 3.1 | 28.3 | 5.2 | 25.3% | -1.0% | 17 | -4.25 |
Evan Fournier | $5,600 | $5,600 | 0.78 | 32.9 | -0.6 | 25.5 | 1.7 | 24.0% | 1.4% | 13 | -1.04 |
Terrence Ross | $4,400 | $5,100 | 0.73 | 24.7 | 7.4 | 17.9 | 8.7 | 18.6% | 2.9% | 12 | 1.14 |
Aaron Gordon | $5,200 | $5,400 | 0.78 | 28.2 | 5.1 | 22.0 | 1.2 | 19.6% | -3.4% | 23 | 3.54 |
Nikola Vucevic | $8,100 | $7,700 | 1.17 | 28.8 | 2.1 | 33.8 | 7.3 | 25.4% | -0.6% | 21 | 1.58 |
Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Terrence Ross (GPP)
Boston Celtics
- Notable Injuries:
NONE
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 107.7 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 114.0 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 6.3 (2 of 22)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (13 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.1 (10 of 22)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.2 (26 of 30)
The Celtics currently hold a half-game lead over the Cavaliers for the one seed in the East. They likely know that their only shot of knocking off the champs is if they have home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston should be able to take care of business tonight at home against the Magic. The Celtics are listed as 10.5-point favorites with an implied total of 114 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 6.3 points above their season average.
Isaiah Thomas continues to play well for the Celtics, but he doesn’t seem to have the same upside when Avery Bradley is starting next to him. If I’m targeting either point guard in this game, I’d rather take a shot on Elfrid Payton, who can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Bradley has been quiet in his last five games, but is only $5,900 on DraftKings. The Magic are ranked 23rd in adjusted DvP against shooting guards and Bradley is a lot more involved offensively than most people realize. Jae Crowder has played well recently, but is a tough sell at his price point. The same can be said for Al Horford, who is up to $7,100 on FanDuel. I like the spot as a whole for the Celtics, but don’t really see any standout plays given their salaries.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | $8,500 | $8,100 | 1.19 | 34.1 | 0.3 | 40.5 | -2.1 | 34.9% | -0.4% | 26 | -0.49 |
Avery Bradley | $6,200 | $5,900 | 0.86 | 33.4 | 1.6 | 28.8 | -1.4 | 21.9% | -2.7% | 23 | -0.81 |
Jae Crowder | $5,900 | $6,000 | 0.79 | 32.5 | 2.3 | 25.6 | 2.3 | 16.8% | 2.6% | 15 | -1.30 |
Amir Johnson | $4,000 | $4,100 | 0.81 | 20.2 | 3.7 | 16.4 | 3.2 | 14.4% | 1.1% | 26 | -0.79 |
Al Horford | $7,100 | $6,700 | 1.00 | 32.6 | -0.2 | 32.7 | 2.9 | 21.7% | -2.7% | 22 | 2.03 |
Elite Plays – Avery Bradley (DK)
Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley (FD), Jae Crowder (FD), Al Horford (DK)
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 218.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 104.0 | Team Total | 114.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -0.2 | Pace +/- | 2.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | T.J. McConnell | Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | Justin Anderson | Dario Saric | Richaun Holmes | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 23 | 30 | 25 | 16 | 20 | Adj. DvP | 16 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 30 | |
DRPM | -1.99 | -0.47 | 1.22 | 2.20 | 1.22 | DRPM | 0.69 | 0.30 | -2.67 | -0.80 | 0.47 |
Philadelphia 76ers
- Notable Injuries:
Sergio Rodriguez (Out)
Jahlil Okafor (Out)
Robert Covington (Out)
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.0 (13 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (9 of 22)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (5 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.2 (11 of 22)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.8 (22 of 30)
The Sixers draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Cavaliers in Cleveland and they will be playing short-handed. Sergio Rodriguez, Jahlil Okafor, and Robert Covington have all been ruled out of tonight’s game. The Sixers are listed as 10-point underdogs with an implied total of 104 points. Even though their is the potential for this game to turn into a blowout, the Sixers have no reason to sit their young players at the end of the game.
T.J. McConnell has played 35 and 37 minutes and has scored 30 and 27 fantasy points in his last two games. He should continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle and the Cavaliers are ranked 23rd in adjusted DvP against point guards. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Justin Anderson, and Nik Stauskas could all play 30+ minutes again tonight and all three are viable plays at their respective positions. DraftKings has priced these players up, but they are all still under $4,000 on FanDuel. Dario Saric is getting cheap enough that we need to start considering him in all formats. He is the number one option offensively and should push for 35+ minutes tonight. Richaun Holmes is averaging a fantasy point per minute this season and has shown 30+ minute upside when he stays out of foul trouble. It’s not a great matchup against Tristan Thompson, but Holmes is worth a look in tournaments.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T.J. McConnell | $5,600 | $6,200 | 0.83 | 25.9 | 3.0 | 21.5 | 4.1 | 19.2% | -0.4% | 23 | -1.99 |
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | $3,900 | $4,500 | 0.59 | 15.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 16.7% | -0.7% | 30 | -0.47 |
Justin Anderson | $3,600 | $4,000 | 0.82 | 15.1 | 3.2 | 12.3 | 0.8 | 19.9% | 0.4% | 25 | 1.22 |
Dario Saric | $7,200 | $7,500 | 0.90 | 26.5 | 6.3 | 23.9 | 5.6 | 24.1% | 3.3% | 16 | 2.20 |
Richaun Holmes | $5,800 | $6,400 | 0.99 | 19.5 | 7.0 | 19.3 | 4.2 | 18.0% | 1.0% | 20 | 1.22 |
Nik Stauskas | $3,800 | $4,600 | 0.60 | 27.3 | 2.6 | 16.4 | 1.7 | 16.8% | -0.9% | 30 | N/A |
Shawn Long | $3,700 | $3,900 | 1.28 | 11.7 | 4.9 | 15.0 | 5.1 | 23.8% | -0.2% | 20 | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Nik Stauskas (FD), Justin Anderson (FD), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (FD)
Secondary Plays – Nik Stauskas (DK), Justin Anderson (DK), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (DK), Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes (GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Notable Injuries:
Kyle Korver (Out)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.0 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 114.0 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (5 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (16 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 2.3 (3 of 22)
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 208.6 (24 of 30)
It’s crazy to think that the Cavaliers are at full strength, they are playing at home, and they are facing a Sixers’ team that is missing two of its best players, and they are still only ten point favorites. While I have my concerns with the Cavaliers moving forward, they have a massive implied total of 114 points tonight. If this game stays close, the big three should all have success. I see them all as elite tournament plays, although they may be a little risky in cash games. The potential of this turning into a blowout is high and the Cavaliers aren’t going to be able to rest their stars down the stretch as often as they would like to. Of the big three, my favorite is Kevin Love. Game log watchers are going to see his minutes in the last two games and be scared off, but the game against the Spurs was a blowout and he fouled out of last night’s game against the Bulls. Love should play 30+ minutes against a very beatable Sixers’ frontcourt.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $9,000 | $8,200 | 1.09 | 35.0 | -2.4 | 38.1 | -7.0 | 32.2% | 1.7% | 16 | 0.69 |
J.R. Smith | $3,500 | $4,300 | 0.53 | 28.0 | 1.9 | 15.0 | -1.5 | 14.6% | -3.1% | 16 | 0.30 |
LeBron James | $10,900 | $10,000 | 1.30 | 37.5 | -0.8 | 48.7 | -3.7 | 33.0% | -1.1% | 18 | -2.67 |
Kevin Love | $7,400 | $7,600 | 1.15 | 31.0 | -4.7 | 35.6 | -7.6 | 25.3% | -3.7% | 9 | -0.80 |
Tristan Thompson | $4,900 | $5,000 | 0.77 | 30.0 | -1.5 | 23.2 | -2.7 | 11.1% | 0.2% | 30 | 0.47 |
Elite Plays – Kevin Love (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), LeBron James (GPP)
New York Knicks at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
New York Knicks | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 208.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 99.0 | Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.2 | Pace +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Ron Baker | Courtney Lee | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Willy Hernangomez | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Rodney McGruder | Josh Richardson | Luke Babbitt | Hassan Whiteside | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | Adj. DvP | 13 | 19 | 22 | 19 | 28 | |
DRPM | -1.50 | -0.83 | -0.21 | 1.66 | 2.35 | DRPM | -0.27 | -1.02 | -1.66 | 2.01 | 0.68 |
New York Knicks
- Notable Injuries:
Lance Thomas (Out)
Carmelo Anthony (Questionable)
Derrick Rose (Questionable)
- New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 99.0 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.8 (20 of 22)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (14 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.2 (14 of 22)
- Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.2 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.2 (5 of 30)
The Knicks and Heat played each other on Wednesday night and now get to do it again in Miami. The Knicks come into the game as 10-point underdogs in an awful matchup for fantasy production. On the season, Miami is ranked fifth in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Knicks have an implied total of only 99 points, which is the fifth lowest in the entire slate. Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony are both listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Even if they are ruled out, Kristaps Porzingis would still be a risky play given the potential for the game to turn into a blowout. The only play on my radar here is Mindaugas Kuzminskas and that is only if Anthony is ruled out.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ron Baker | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.60 | 14.0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 17.0% | -1.6% | 6 | -1.50 |
Courtney Lee | $4,600 | $4,300 | 0.61 | 32.1 | 3.9 | 19.7 | 2.7 | 14.6% | -0.5% | 1 | -0.83 |
Carmelo Anthony | $6,700 | $6,600 | 1.00 | 34.5 | -1.4 | 34.4 | -9.2 | 28.7% | -6.4% | 5 | -0.21 |
Kristaps Porzingis | $7,200 | $7,500 | 1.00 | 32.8 | 0.8 | 32.7 | 2.6 | 23.8% | 0.9% | 6 | 1.66 |
Willy Hernangomez | $5,100 | $5,600 | 1.05 | 17.6 | 7.0 | 18.5 | 10.3 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 9 | 2.35 |
Elite Plays – Mindaugas Kuzminskas (if Anthony is out)
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)
Miami Heat
- Notable Injuries:
Dion Waiters (Out)
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.0 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 6.2 (3 of 22)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (20 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.3 (9 of 22)
- New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.7 (21 of 30)
The Heat have won six of their last ten games and hold a one game lead over the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the East (Miami is tied with Indiana). They should be able to pick up an easy win tonight against the hapless Knicks, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Heat have an implied total of 109 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 6.2 points above their season average.
This can go one of two ways – if you think this game stays close, the Heat players are in an excellent matchup and provide plenty of upside. If you think the Knicks forget to show up (which is highly likely at this point of the season), the Heat starters could end up sitting out the fourth quarter. Given the unknown, I prefer the likes of Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside in tournaments. Their upside is massive, but there is a chance that they could play less than 30 minutes in a blowout. I’d rather take a shot on one of the cheaper options such as James Johnson or Josh Richardson. Over the last five games, Johnson is averaging 29 fantasy points and Richardson is averaging 24 fantasy points.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goran Dragic | $7,800 | $7,400 | 1.00 | 33.5 | -0.6 | 33.5 | -0.4 | 29.3% | 1.1% | 13 | -0.27 |
Rodney McGruder | $3,500 | $3,300 | 0.54 | 25.1 | 0.9 | 13.6 | 2.3 | 12.6% | 1.6% | 19 | -1.02 |
Josh Richardson | $4,700 | $5,300 | 0.65 | 29.5 | 5.6 | 19.3 | 4.7 | 18.2% | -0.4% | 22 | -1.66 |
Luke Babbitt | $3,500 | $3,000 | 0.55 | 15.7 | 0.2 | 8.6 | -1.1 | 13.0% | -1.2% | 19 | 2.01 |
Hassan Whiteside | $8,400 | $7,900 | 1.18 | 32.6 | -2.5 | 38.5 | -0.5 | 21.1% | 1.9% | 28 | 0.68 |
James Johnson | $6,300 | $6,500 | 0.96 | 26.8 | 1.7 | 25.7 | 2.8 | 23.8% | 5.4% | 19 | N/A |
Tyler Johnson | $5,600 | $5,400 | 0.86 | 29.9 | -1.5 | 25.8 | -2.3 | 22.2% | 2.6% | 13 | N/A |