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NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-07 00:15:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Orlando Magic
phoenixnba Vegas Total 214.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 113.8
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 20 5 20 19 10 Opp. Season 29 30 27 16 8
Last 3 Weeks 15 1 16 24 15 Last 3 Weeks 28 30 15 27 24

Phoenix Suns

Record: 15-45 — Road: 4-24 — Last 10: 1-9

The Suns were competitive last night against the Heat, but may have exhausted themselves in the process. They are listed as 13-point underdogs tonight against the Magic in the tail tend of a back-to-back. The Suns are projected to score 100.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Magic are a middle-of-the-pack defense, ranking between 14th and 20th in the four statistics listed above. The concern here is twofold – this game has the potential to turn into a blowout and the Suns’ starters played significant minutes last night against the Heat.

Elite Plays

Alex Len
alex-len-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.6 25.8 5.2 31.2 10.6
FPPG (FD) 18.8 27.7 8.9 30.2 11.4
TO-Adj. Usage 15.3 21.2 5.9 21.3 5.9

Len has been en fuego over his last three games, averaging 38 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He logged 40 minutes last night against the Heat though, which does concern me a little. He still grades out as an excellent play tonight, but his minute projection should be more in the 30-32 tonight against the Magic.

Secondary Plays

Mirza Teletovic
mirza-teletovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$5,600
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.4 25.2 5.8 25.8 6.4
FPPG (FD) 16.7 24.9 8.3 26.8 10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 21.7 2.1 21.8 2.1

Teletovic is a little too expensive on DraftKings, but is worth a look on FanDuel at a price of only $4,700. If you look at the table above, his statistics are all green. That means that his minutes, fantasy points, and production are all way up over his last ten games. The upside is there for tournaments, but there are better value plays for cash games.

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.67 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.4 32.7 8.3 33.5 9.1
FPPG (FD) 16.3 21.2 4.9 20.3 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 18.7 1.7 20.6 3.5

Booker disappeared for a few weeks, but had a huge outing against the Heat last night. He played 39 minutes and scored 39 fantasy points. Maybe that performance can get him going again. His price is at it’s cheapest point in months, as he is well under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Orlando Magic

Editor’s Note: Victor Oladipo has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Record: 27-33 — Home: 17-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Magic have won five of their last ten games, but are still on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Suns, as they are the largest favorites on the schedule. The Magic are projected to score 113.8 points, which is the highest team total on the board. They also have the highest projected point differential at +12.9.

The Suns are right there with the Lakers and Kings for honors as the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are now ranked 29th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Magic offense should see a sizable boost as a whole, but there is certainly the possibility that the starters could all play limited minutes. Not only is the spread set at 13 points, but Scott Skiles loves to mess with his rotation.

Elite Plays

Aaron Gordon
aaron-gordon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.9 29.9 7.0 30.5 7.6
FPPG (FD) 20.6 31.9 11.3 31.9 11.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 15.7 1.2 16.5 2.1

The entire Magic starting lineup make excellent tournament plays tonight at home. However, given the large spread, I may limit my exposure to them in cash games. Gordon is my favorite play of the bunch, as he just continues to crush. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 31.9 fantasy points per game. His minutes are also on the rise, as he has played at least 33 in three of his last four games.

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic
nikola-vucevic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,500
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.9 33.1 1.2 28.7 -3.2
FPPG (FD) 34.5 39.6 5.0 33.5 -1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 26.0 3.3 28.3 5.6

The one position that the Suns have had success against this season is center. With Hassan Whiteside and Karl-Anthony Towns in such great spots, Vucevic is more of a tournament play tonight. He has obviously been in great form recently, averaging 39.6 fantasy points in 33.1 minutes over his last ten games.

Editor’s Note: Victor Oladipo has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$7,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 36.2 4.2 33.7 1.7
FPPG (FD) 28.2 31.1 2.8 28.5 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.6 19.3 -0.3 19.8 0.2

Oladipo has been quiet in his last two games, but is averaging 33 fantasy points in 36 minutes in his last ten outings. I expect his ownership to be down tonight, making him a strong tournament play. He draws one of the top matchups on the board, as the Suns are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards.

Elfrid Payton
elfrid-payton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.83 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.5 30.1 0.6 29.3 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 24.5 25.1 0.6 25.7 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 18.0 15.7 -2.3 15.6 -2.4

Even though Evan Fournier is expected to play tonight, Payton still offers great upside at his price point. His minutes have been volatile recently, which is why we shouldn’t use him in cash games. However, he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he draws a terrific matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 29th against point guards.

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Philadelphia 76ers
miaminba Vegas Total 205.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd -9.5 Vegas Sprd 9.5
Team Proj. 107.3 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 24 16 28 28 30 Opp. Season 2 2 17 4 6
Last 3 Weeks 21 18 28 28 29 Last 3 Weeks 5 7 17 22 2

Miami Heat

Record: 34-26 — Road: 15-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and are now eight games above .500 overall. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, as they take on the Sixers in Philadelphia. The Heat are listed as 9.5-points favorites with an implied team total of 107.3 points.

The Sixers have struggled defensively all season, ranking 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Chris Bosh remains out for the Heat, but it sounds like everyone else will be available to play tonight. I have a hard time using Dwyane Wade in a back-to-back after he played 33 minutes last night, but the rest of the Heat are in play in this favorable matchup.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.6 28.8 0.2 29.4 0.8
FPPG (FD) 34.5 40.5 6.1 42.0 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 18.7 3.5 17.4 2.2

Whiteside only played 23 minutes last night against the Suns. He was obviously not happy about it, as they kept showing him on the end of the bench. While we can never feel 100% secure about his minutes, he has been playing big minutes recently. If we project him for 30+ minutes tonight against the Sixers, we have to like his raw projection. The Sixers don’t rebound well and they allow 5.6 blocked shots per game, which is the third most in the NBA.

Secondary Plays

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 34.0 1.4 34.0 1.4
FPPG (FD) 25.8 33.5 7.7 32.5 6.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.9 22.5 4.6 22.5 4.6

The Dragon has been on a nice run without Chris Bosh in the lineup, averaging 33.5 fantasy points in his last ten games. I am a little worried about the large spread and the back-to-back, but he has a good chance of reaching value even if he only plays 30 minutes. On the season, the Sixers have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.7 34.0 2.3 33.0 1.3
FPPG (FD) 22.0 31.5 9.5 28.6 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 19.1 4.5 18.3 3.7

Deng is another player that has benefitted from Chris Bosh being out. Over his last ten games, his minutes, fantasy points, and usage are all way up over his season averages. He is also rebounding at a higher rate. He’s not my favorite play at small forward in a points per dollar sense, but he is certainly worth a look as a secondary play tonight.

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 8-53 — Home: 5-24 — Last 10: 0-10

The Sixers have lost ten games in a row and now have a four game lead over the Lakers for the worst record in the NBA. They are listed as 9.5-point underdogs tonight against a stout Miami defense. The Sixers are only projected to score 97.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Heat are not a team that we should actively target players against in daily fantasy basketball. They play at a slow pace and are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Jahlil Okafor is listed as questionable tonight. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, and Robert Covington.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jerami Grant
jerami-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,900
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.1 29.5 3.4 30.4 4.3
FPPG (FD) 20.5 23.0 2.5 23.8 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 13.9 12.2 -1.7 13.2 -0.8

This pick hinges on the availability of Jahlil Okafor. In eight games without Okafor this season, he is averaging 21.2 fantasy points per contest. Grant is coming off of a subpar outing against the Hornets, but we have seen what he can do when he is given extended minutes.

Isaiah Canaan
isaiah-canaan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.6 24.3 -0.3 26.6 2.0
FPPG (FD) 16.3 14.6 -1.7 16.5 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 17.5 0.7 18.6 1.9

Canaan is an interesting punt play tonight. He has played at least 32 minutes and has scored at least 19 fantasy points in each of his last three games. His matchup against the Heat is less than appealing, but if you need a cheap GPP flier, you could certainly do worse than Canaan.

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Charlotte Hornets
indiananba Vegas Total 200.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 99.30 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 13 13 22 22 11 Opp. Season 10 14 5 13 12
Last 3 Weeks 4 10 26 12 6 Last 3 Weeks 20 2 24 11 9

Indiana Pacers

Record: 32-29 — Road: 14-18 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers are 5-5 in their last ten games, but are still three games above .500 on the season. Tonight they travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in a game that features a low total of 200 points. The Pacers are only projected to score 98.5 points in this matchup. Indiana has the lowest projected point differential of any team on the schedule tonight.

The Hornets have played some solid defense over the last couple of months. They are now ranked ninth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. Given the low team total for the Pacers, I will have very little exposure to their players tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$8,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 35.1 -0.3 34.1 -1.3
FPPG (FD) 38.5 38.9 0.4 37.5 -1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 25.0 25.9 0.9 26.2 1.2

George has really played well since the All-Star break. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 38.9 fantasy points in just over 35 minutes per contest. He has a nice track record against the Hornets this season, averaging 44 fantasy points in their first two meetings. However, given the bad game environment, I see him as more of a secondary play tonight.

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 32-28 — Home: 20-9 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets have won eight of their last ten games and are now four games above .500 on the season. They are listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Pacers at home. The Hornets implied team total of 101.5 points is right around their scoring average, but they have the sixth worst projected point differential on the board.

The Pacers have played some great defense this season, ranking tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Spencer Hawes is not expected to suit up tonight, but the Hornets’ frontcourt is an easy one to avoid anyway. There are too many players splitting minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 37.3 1.3 36.5 0.5
FPPG (FD) 36.0 39.7 3.6 38.0 1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 24.2 1.1 24.0 0.9

Walker always sees a small boost when he is playing at home. In his career, he has averaged right around five more fantasy points per game at home than he has on the road. His matchup against the Pacers isn’t great, but he does come into this game in good form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 39.7 fantasy points per contest.

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 37.1 1.8 34.4 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 30.0 30.1 0.1 23.7 -6.4
TO-Adj. Usage 17.1 14.6 -2.5 12.7 -4.4

Batum went on a little slide for a few games, but has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last two games. Given his matchup against Paul George, he could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight. I don’t love that his usage rate has dipped over his last ten games though, which is why he is more of a secondary play tonight.

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

New York Knicks Boston Celtics
newyorknba Vegas Total 209.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 101.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 8 19 26 26 Opp. Season 18 17 10 6 17
Last 3 Weeks 10 12 11 23 26 Last 3 Weeks 24 28 13 6 25

New York Knicks

Record: 25-37 — Road: 10-19 — Last 10: 2-8

The Knicks have lost eight of their last ten games and are basically out of the equation when it comes to the playoffs. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Celtics in Boston. The Knicks are only projected to score 100 points. They have the seventh lowest team total and the eighth lowest projected point differential.

The Celtics are ranked third in defensive efficiency this season. While their pace of play hinders their defensive rankings, they are still an above-average defense. The Knicks have not been playing well recently and it wouldn’t surprise me to see this game turn into a rout. With ten games on the schedule, the Knicks are secondary fantasy options at best.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony
carmelo-anthony-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 37.3 2.2 36.7 1.6
FPPG (FD) 37.7 41.3 3.6 38.2 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 26.9 1.2 27.6 1.9

Anthony is an intriguing tournament play tonight. For cash game purposes, I’d rather have LeBron James, Paul George, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, but Anthony could be the lowest owned of the three. If the Knicks are going to have any shot in this game, they will need a big outing from Anthony. Oh, and if you didn’t see him get stuffed by the rim the other night, click here.

Kristaps Porzingis
kristaps-porzingis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.1 28.9 0.8 28.0 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 28.5 30.3 1.8 28.8 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 20.0 21.5 1.5 21.9 1.9

I always like to target bigs against the Celtics. They are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to both power forwards and centers. Porzingis has been great when given minutes, but his playing time is too volatile to use in cash game. He does make a nice tournament play though, as he is averaging an elite 1.01 fantasy points per minute this season.

Boston Celtics

Record: 37-25 — Home: 21-10 — Last 10: 7-3

The Celtics are coming off of an impressive blowout win over the Blazers. They have now won seven of their last ten games and are 37-25 overall. Tonight they host the Knicks in a game that features a spread of 9.5-points. The Celtics are projected to score 109.5 points, which is the second highest team total on the board and 3.4 points above their scoring average.

The Knicks have been an average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked between 11th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Celtics will be without Kelly Olynyk again tonight. His absence solidifies the minutes for Jared Sullinger and Amir Johnson.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.3 31.9 -0.4 31.0 -1.3
FPPG (FD) 34.8 36.6 1.8 32.1 -2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 27.8 1.9 29.0 3.0

Thomas is one of those players that I’m always high on when I first break down the slate, but then end up going in a different direction once I start to build my lineups. I have a feeling that could be the case again tonight. Thomas is an elite play though, as he is averaging 36.6 fantasy points over his last ten games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to points guards over the last three weeks.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,100
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.8 26.2 2.4 27.3 3.5
FPPG (FD) 26.1 32.2 6.1 31.1 4.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 19.6 0.9 17.8 -0.9

Sullinger continues to play well for the Celtics. In the eight games that Olynyk has missed, Sullinger has averaged 30.8 fantasy points in 26.2 minutes per contest. The issue is that he doesn’t have that minute upside that we are looking for. He basically caps out at around 30 minutes, which makes it tough for him to have those monster fantasy outings.

Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Toronto Raptors
portlandnba Vegas Total 208.5 torontonba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 107.0
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan James Johnson Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 3 12 4 3 18 Opp. Season 17 18 6 21 24
Last 3 Weeks 2 6 18 3 17 Last 3 Weeks 19 22 14 26 23

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 33-29 — Road: 14-17 — Last 10: 8-2

The Blazers have won eight of their last ten games and are looking to bounce back after a lopsided loss against the Celtics. They are going to have their hands full tonight though, as they face another red-hot team in the Raptors. The Blazers are only projected to score 101.5 points, which is two points below their scoring average.

The Raptors have been stout defensively this season, ranking eighth or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. They are also ranked fourth or better against point guards, small forwards, and power forwards. My plan is to fade the Blazers altogether tonight, as they are better matchups to exploit.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,100 Salary:$9,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.6 -0.3 34.5 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 40.2 44.4 4.2 38.2 -2.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 30.4 2.7 29.2 1.4

I’m probably going to be fading the Blazers altogether, but Lillard’s recent play has me interested. Over his last ten games, he is averaging an elite 44.4 fantasy points per game. If you are building a lot of GPP lineups tonight, you may want to pair Lillard with Kyle Lowry and hope that these two put on a show.

Toronto Raptors

Record: 40-19 — Home: 22-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the last two months. They are now 40-19 overall with an impressive 22-6 record at home. The spread of 5.5 points seems a little low, but we should expect a competitive game. The Raptors are projected to score 107 points and they have the seventh highest projected point differential.

The Blazers have played better defense recently, but are still ranked 15th in points allowed per game and 19th in defensive efficiency. With their high team total, we should consider this a slightly favorable matchup for the Raptors. As usual, there are only two players on my radar from Toronto.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,100 Salary:$8,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 39.0 2.0 39.4 2.4
FPPG (FD) 39.7 45.3 5.6 50.6 10.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.6 22.9 0.3 23.7 1.1

Anytime the Raptors have a high team total and the spread is relatively close, Lowry is going to be on my radar. He has been in great form recently, averaging 50.6 fantasy points in 39.4 minutes over his last five games. The Blazers are a mediocre matchup for point guards, but Lowry could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight at home. He is a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 35.4 -0.7 34.4 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 35.0 34.9 -0.1 33.8 -1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 26.3 0.6 24.5 -1.2

DeRozan is a little expensive on FanDuel, but he deserves a look tonight on DraftKings. He is one of the safest plays at shooting guard, as he rarely ever has a bad outing that will sink your lineup. DeRozan also draws a pretty nice matchup against the Blazers, who are ranked 18th against shooting guards this season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious