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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-15 15:44:17

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Minnesota at Indiana – 7:00 PM

Minnesota Indiana
minnesotanba Vegas Total 197.5 indiananba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 101.20 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George C.J. Miles Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 2 21 14 10 19 Opp. Season 12 14 4 21 5
Opp. Last 7 2 12 10 19 3 Opp. Last 7 18 9 12 27 5

Minnesota

The Wolves were yet another small building in the way of the wrecking ball that is the Golden State Warriors. Minnesota put up a fight last night, but they dropped to 4-4 on the season. They now have a quick turnaround, as they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in the second half of a back-to-back. Ricky Rubio missed last night’s game and should be considered questionable. Kevin Garnett status is also in doubt, as he has yet to play back-to-back games this season.

The Pacers have really improved on the defensive side of the ball. It really just goes to show how important a sample size is. After a few games, the Pacers looked like one of the worst defenses in the season, even though most of us knew that was due to the small sample. Now that the Pacers have played nine games, they are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wolves are in a tough spot tonight and with an implied team total of 94.8 points, they are risky fantasy options in a full slate.

If Ricky Rubio is unable to suit up tonight, Zach LaVine would draw another start at point guard. He is a little too expensive on FanDuel ($5,600), but he would make a nice value play on DraftKings ($3,900). Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have both had big fantasy performances this season, but both players are a bit overpriced for their matchups. Nemanja Bjelica is worth a look in all league formats. He could see 30+ minutes of action tonight if Kevin Garnett sits this game out.

Elite Plays

Nemanja Bjelica

FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 29.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.3
FP/Game: 23.2 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $7,100 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 29.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.7
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min.: 1.18

Andrew Wiggins

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 32.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 25.6
FP/Game: 26.6 — FP/Min.: 0.82

Zach LaVine

FD: $5,600 — DK: $3,900
Min/Game: 21.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.7
FP/Game: 19.1 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Indiana

The Pacers have won five of their last six games, largely in part thanks to their play on the defensive end of the floor. Tonight they host the Wolves, who may be short-handed in the second half of a back-to-back. This game has the potential to turn into a rout, as the Pacers are favored by eight points at home.

The Wolves looked like an improved defense this season until, of course, they faced the Warriors. We should put very little stock into last night’s performance defensively, because the Warriors do that to everyone that they play. Even after last night, the Wolves are ranked 12th or better in defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have a mediocre implied team total of 102.8 points tonight.

In his last five games, Paul George has scored 45, 59, 50, 38, and 39 fantasy points (FD scoring). He is a multi-dimensional player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He also has an elite turnover-adjusted usage rate of 26.0 this season. He remains an elite play at small forward and he is preferred over the more expensive LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony. It will be interesting to see if the Pacers go with a big starting lineup tonight, or if they stick with C.J. Miles. As always, he is a nice tournament option thanks to his ability to put points on the board quickly.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $9,100 — DK: $9,200
Min/Game: 36.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 26.0
FP/Game: 40.9 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Secondary Plays

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 28.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.4
FP/Game: 19.1 — FP/Min.: 0.68

Utah at Orlando – 7:00 PM

Utah Orlando
utahnba Vegas Total 190.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 94.5
Team Pace 95.00 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Derrick Favors Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 27 6 10 7 15 Opp. Season 6 4 9 1 2
Opp. Last 7 23 11 1 7 17 Opp. Last 7 13 4 15 13 7

Utah

The Jazz have lost two close games to two tough opponents in the Cavaliers and the Heat. They will look to end their losing streak tonight, as they square off against the Magic in Orlando. Rudy Gobert missed last night’s game with an ankle injury and he is listed as a game-time decision tonight. If he is unable to suit up, Derrick Favors would see a major fantasy boost.

The Jazz draw a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 14th or worse in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Jazz basically dictate the pace though, so we shouldn’t expect much of a pace boost, even though the Magic average four more possessions per game than the Jazz do this season. Utah has an implied team total of 95.5 points, which is nearly identical to their average points per game scored this season.

Derrick Favors deserves consideration tonight regardless of whether or not Rudy Gobert is in the lineup. The only difference is whether he will be an elite play or a secondary play. We saw the type of upside that he possesses last night after an incredible stat line of 25 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 7 blocks, and 3 steals. Gordon Hayward finally appears to be out of his early season slump, but he is not a must on a night with 11 games on the schedule. Rodney Hood and Alec Burks join Hayward as secondary options tonight.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 31.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 36.4 — FP/Min.: 1.17

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 34.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.7
FP/Game: 26.2 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Alec Burks

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 28.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.3
FP/Game: 24.5 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 28.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 21.1 — FP/Min.: 0.75

Orlando

The Magic have been a fun team to watch this season, although their rotation has been tough to peg down. A player that sees 40 minutes one night isn’t guaranteed to see 30 minutes the next night. The Magic will be without Victor Oladipo tonight against the Jazz, as he suffered a concussion against the Lakers on Wednesday.

The Jazz are stout defensively even without Rudy Gobert in the lineup, but they are the BEST defense in the NBA with Gobert in the lineup. If Gobert is unable to play tonight, give a small boost to the Magic as a whole. Overall, this is one of the worst matchups in daily fantasy basketball. The Jazz are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season.

This would typically be a great spot to fade the Magic, but with Victor Oladipo out, it opens up two intriguing plays tonight. Elfrid Payton has been his usual stat-stuffing self this season, but his minutes have been very up and down, as he continues to struggle with his shot. With Oladipo out, he should see at the very least around 30 minutes tonight. Evan Fournier will also be asked to carry the load with Oladipo out. He should see an increase in both minutes and usage. Nikola Vucevic could make an interesting tournament play if Rudy Gobert is ruled out.

Elite Plays

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,600 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 38.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.2
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min.: 0.73

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 30.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.1
FP/Game: 32.3 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Elfrid Payton

FD: $6,500 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 29.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 23.2 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Channing Frye

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 15.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.8
FP/Game: 14.5 — FP/Min.: 0.93

New Orleans at Toronto – 7:30 PM

New Orleans Toronto
neworleansnba Vegas Total 200.0 torontonba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 102.70 Team Pace 98.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Eric Gordon Luke Babbitt Ryan Anderson Omer Asik Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas
Opp. Season 4 19 18 13 24 Opp. Season 30 20 11 23 29
Opp. Last 7 4 18 21 15 28 Opp. Last 7 14 10 16 29 23

New Orleans

The Pelicans put up a fight against the Hawks on Wednesday, but they ultimately fell short in their bid for their second win of the season. Anthony Davis is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game against the Raptors, which means the entire team will need to step up in his absence.

The Pelicans draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Without Anthony Davis in the lineup, the Pelicans are only projected to score 95.5 points, which is one of the lowest implied team totals on the board tonight.

Jrue Holiday will return to the starting lineup tonight, after sitting out Wednesday’s game in the second half of a back-to-back. Ish Smith will head back to the bench and can be avoided tonight. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon will both be asked to carry the load offensively for the Pelicans. If you think the Pelicans can keep this game close, they should both be considered elite plays tonight. However, if you don’t think they can keep up with the Raptors, the two are better secondary options.

Elite Plays

Ryan Anderson

FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 31.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 28.6 — FP/Min.: 0.91

Eric Gordon

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 35.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 27.8 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Secondary Plays

NONE

Toronto

The Raptors are 6-3 to start the season, which is right around where we expected them to be at this point. They should be able to pick up another win tonight at home, as they host the short-handed Pelicans. The Raptors are nine-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 200 points.

Through the first eight games of the season, the Pelicans are ranked 27th or worst in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Those numbers are a little hard to believe when three of the Pelicans five starters are known as above-average defenders – Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, and Omer Asik. The Raptors have one of the highest implied team totals on the board tonight at 104.5 points.

The question isn’t whether or not this is a favorable matchup, it’s whether or not the game will be over by the end of the third quarter. If the Pelicans can keep this one within striking distance, the Raptors’ starters should have a field day. DeMarre Carroll should be considered questionable tonight and with Terrence Ross out, James Johnson could make a nice value play once again. Cory Joseph would also see a nice boost if Carroll is ruled out. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both elite plays at their respective positions, but you have to be willing to take the risk that they may only see three quarters of action.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 34.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.8
FP/Game: 38.1 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Demar DeRozan

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 35.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.6
FP/Game: 32.1 — FP/Min.: 0.91

James Johnson – If DeMarre Carroll is out

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,700
Min/Game: 16.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 9.1
FP/Game: 10.3 — FP/Min.: 0.63

Secondary Plays

Jonas Valanciunas

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 28.1 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.0
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min.: 1.00

Cory Joseph

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 24.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.2
FP/Game: 17.5 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Cleveland at New York – 7:30 PM

Cleveland New York
clevelandnba Vegas Total 201.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 97.5
Team Pace 97.30 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mo Williams J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 16 16 13 14 13 Opp. Season 5 18 19 4 4
Opp. Last 7 16 28 13 8 11 Opp. Last 7 10 25 24 11 6

Cleveland

The Cavaliers seem like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference and they are still playing without one of their best players in Kyrie Irving. Cleveland is looking for their eighth win in a row tonight, as they square off against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden.

The Knicks present a mediocre fantasy matchup for the Cavaliers. On the season, New York is ranked 15th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even with the average matchup, the Cavaliers are still projected to score 103.5 points tonight.

Star players love to play in Madison Square Garden. The intrigue of playing in the Big Apple has probably worn off for LeBron James at this point in his career, but we shouldn’t be surprised if he puts on a show tonight in New York. He’s not my favorite play in the points per dollar sense, but I will have plenty of exposure to him in tournaments. Kevin Love is a borderline elite play tonight against Kristaps Porzingis and company. Love has averaged 36.5 fantasy points per game this season with a turnover-adjusted usage rate of 21.4.

Elite Plays

Kevin Love

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 33.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.4
FP/Game: 36.5 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

FD: $10,200 — DK: $9,900
Min/Game: 34.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 30.0
FP/Game: 45.3 — FP/Min.: 1.30

Mo Williams

FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 31.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.8
FP/Game: 28.7 — FP/Min.: 0.91

New York

The Knicks are only 4-5 to start the season, but there are actually people talking about this team. And surprisingly, the conversation isn’t about whether or not they should shut Carmelo Anthony down for the season. Kristaps Porzingis has brought excitement back into the Garden and a win tonight over the Cavaliers would really grab some headlines.

The Cavaliers are one of the toughest matchups in daily fantasy basketball. They play at a slow pace and they are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Knicks are only projected to score 97.5 points tonight, which is well below the average of the 22 teams in action tonight. While I will be tuning into this game as a basketball fan, I will likely be avoiding the Knicks in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 24.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.1
FP/Game: 25.9 — FP/Min.: 1.05

Atlanta at Boston – 7:30 PM

Atlanta Boston
atlantanba Vegas Total 205.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 99.80 Team Pace 103.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Evan Turner Jae Crowder Jared Sullinger Amir Johnson
Opp. Season 1 30 21 12 16 Opp. Season 11 24 8 17 23
Opp. Last 7 3 22 19 5 22 Opp. Last 7 17 29 2 21 13

Atlanta

The Hawks haven’t exactly played their best basketball in their last two games, but they are still 8-2 on the season. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game. The Hawks are one-point favorites in this one with the total set at 205.5 points.

The Celtics have really improved their play on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking ninth of better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying in just yet though, as the Hawks have an implied team total of 103.3 points, which is right around their average points scored this season.

Paul Millsap continues to lead the way for the Hawks. He has consistently outperformed his salary, averaging 38.9 fantasy points per game this season. His price is starting to catch up to that production though, so I would consider him more of a fringe elite play tonight at power forward. Kent Bazemore has also been exceeding value with his play recently. As long as he continues to get minutes, he will continue to provide both a high floor and a high ceiling at his price point.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.8
FP/Game: 38.9 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 31.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.2
FP/Game: 34.8 — FP/Min.: 1.10

Kent Bazemore

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 29.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.7
FP/Game: 24.2 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Boston

The Celtics may be without Avery Bradley tonight (questionable), but they will otherwise be at full strength. They are always a difficult team to predict on a nightly basis because they have such a deep and inconsistent rotation. Vegas expects them to keep it close tonight against the Hawks though, as they are installed as one-point underdogs at home.

The Hawks have yet to establish their dominant defense that they had last season. Part of that has to do with a small sample size and part of that has to do with the departure of DeMarre Carroll. They are still an above-average defense though, as they are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency this season.

If Avery Bradley is out tonight, Evan Turner would likely draw another start at shooting guard. He is far from a cash game option, but he does provide good upside in tournaments. The Celtics have not announced who will start at point guard, but at this point, it’s probably best to avoid both Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Smart.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Evan Turner

FD: $6,000 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 25.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 21.9 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 30.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.5
FP/Game: 24.7 — FP/Min.: 0.82

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious