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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 13th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-13 19:07:00

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Charlotte at Chicago – 8:00 PM

Charlotte Chicago
charlottenba Vegas Total 198.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 96.0 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 101.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Al Jefferson Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Doug McDermott Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 21 9 23 3 30 Opp. Season 8 12 12 27 12
Opp. Last 7 11 6 6 9 29 Opp. Last 7 15 21 22 25 14

Charlotte

The Hornets are looking to get above .500 tonight, as they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls. This is expected to be one of the lowest scoring games of the night, as the total is set at only 198.5 points.

The Bulls are no longer an elite defense under Fred Hoiberg, but they are still ranked above the league average in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Hornets are only projected to score 96 points, which is the sixth-lowest team total on the board tonight. This is a situation where we shouldn’t force any Hornets’ players into our lineups. Marvin Williams and Nicolas Batum are both decent plays, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nicolas Batum

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 33.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.4
FP/Game: 28.4 — FP/Min.: 0.85

Marvin Williams – Bump him up to an elite play if Cody Zeller is out

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 31.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 12.0
FP/Game: 25.1 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Chicago

The Bulls reminded of what can go wrong in daily fantasy basketball. On Tuesday night, Joakim Noah was announced as a starter around 20 minutes before lineups locked. At his depressed price point, a lot of people decided to take a chance on him. Shortly after lineups locked, Noah was then on the bench and Nikola Mirotic was in the starting lineup. Shortly after that, Noah was ruled out for the game. It was a tough break for many, but it is just a part of DFS.

The Bulls draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked between 10th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Bulls have an implied team total of 102.5 points, which is slightly higher than their average points scored on the season.

While I don’t mind the matchup, there aren’t any play that really stand out tonight. Jimmy Butler has seen a decline in usage the last few games with Derrick Rose taking every shot that he can. Rose himself has been too inconsistent to use in cash games. And for the front-court, it’s difficult to trust any single player in a four-man rotation. Pau Gasol is obviously the safest play of the group, but he is overpriced for his matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 30.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.3
FP/Game: 32.9 — FP/Min.: 1.09

Jimmy Butler

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 35.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.6
FP/Game: 33.8 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Derrick Rose

FD: $6,900 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 32.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.6
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min.: 0.74

Philadelphia at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM

Philadelphia Oklahoma City
philadelphianba Vegas Total 209.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Sprd 14.0 Vegas Sprd -14.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 111.8
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 102.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kyle Singler Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 7 29 15 18 7 Opp. Season 25 3 29 26 26
Opp. Last 7 6 27 3 12 1 Opp. Last 7 26 8 27 24 27

Philadelphia

The Sixers are now the only team in the NBA without a win on their resume. I’d love to tell you otherwise, but they aren’t going to pick up that elusive first win tonight against the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes have both been ruled out for tonight’s game, but the Sixers will have Nerlens Noel back in the lineup.

The Thunder have been an average team in terms of defensive efficiency, but their extremely fast pace of play has led them to allow the sixth most points per game this season. Despite the favorable matchup, the Sixers are still only projected to score 97.8 points tonight. In a game where they are 14-point underdogs, they are risky fantasy options. Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Nik Stauskas, and T.J. McConnell are all viable tournament plays, but I will be avoided the Sixers in cash games tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,400 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 32.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.8
FP/Game: 30.1 — FP/Min.: 0.93

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 33.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 24.1
FP/Game: 31.6 — FP/Min.: 0.94

T.J. McConnell

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 29.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.6
FP/Game: 24.4 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Nik Stauskas

FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 31.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.6
FP/Game: 20.8 — FP/Min.: 0.66

Oklahoma City

The Thunder will be without Kevin Durant for the next 7-10 days. Ladies and gentleman, welcome to the Russell Westbrook Show, starring none other than Mr. Westbrook himself. The Thunder are 14-point favorites tonight at home against the Sixers.

The Thunder draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. The Sixers are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. With an implied team total of 111.8 points, the Thunder are expected to be one of the highest scoring teams of the night.

Even in a potential blowout, we should not break the daily fantasy basketball commandments. Rule 1: Thou shall not fade Russell Westbrook in the absence of Kevin Durant. Rule 2: Thou shall not allow a friend to fade Russell Westbrook in the absence of Kevin Durant. Rule 3: Rinse and repeat. Even though Westbrook will be astronomically high-owned tonight, he should be in your lineup, especially if you are playing cash games. Serge Ibaka and Dion Waiters also see a boost tonight and both find themselves in favorable matchups of their own.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $11,200 — DK: $11,600
Min/Game: 34.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 29.9
FP/Game: 50.4 — FP/Min.: 1.45

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 33.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.2
FP/Game: 29.3 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Dion Waiters

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 25.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.0
FP/Game: 18.5 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Portland at Memphis – 8:00 PM

Portland Memphis
portlandnba Vegas Total 195.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Ed Davis Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 23 5 27 25 6 Opp. Season 26 22 1 15 27
Opp. Last 7 20 1 18 17 4 Opp. Last 7 28 13 4 14 30

Portland

The Blazers are 4-5 to start the season. They will try to get back to .500 tonight, as they head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies. This game has one of the lowest totals on the board tonight and with a full slate of games on tap, it is one that we can easily avoid for fantasy purposes. Meyers Leonard has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Ed Davis will draw a spot start at power forward.

Even though the Grizzlies have been awful defensively here in the early part of the season, most people expect them to turn it around shortly, including the oddsmakers. Despite averaging 103.4 points per game this season, the Blazers have an implied team total of 95.4 points, which is tied for the lowest of any team in play tonight. Many people will be drawn to Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, but I will be avoiding both in what should be a pace-down game for Portland. Ed Davis is the one play that may be worth a look here. He will draw the start at power forward and he has the revenge narrative in his favor against his former team.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Ed Davis

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 20.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 10.2
FP/Game: 18.6 — FP/Min.: 0.90

Memphis

The Grizzlies have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA so far this season, but at 3-6, they are only a game and a half behind the Jazz, who are tied for the fifth-best record in the Western Conference. There is still plenty of time for them to turn things around. That could very well start tonight at home against the visiting Blazers.

The Blazers have played at an average pace this season, but they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Grizzlies have an implied team total of 101 points tonight, which is 11 points higher than their average points scored this season. That 11 point difference is the highest of any team on the board tonight, so we should give a nice boost to the Grizzlies’ offense as a whole.

While I do expect a nice outing from Memphis, they are going to be low-owned, which means we don’t have to take a chance on any of them in cash games. That said, I will have some exposure to Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, and Mike Conley in tournaments. All three are in favorable matchups tonight, especially Gasol.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 30.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.7
FP/Game: 26.9 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Zach Randolph

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 31.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.2
FP/Game: 26.8 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Mike Conley

FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 31.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.5
FP/Game: 26.1 — FP/Min.: 0.83

L.A. Lakers at Dallas – 8:30 PM

L.A. Lakers Dallas
lalakersnba Vegas Total 209.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 108.8
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Deron Williams Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 18 7 2 29 10 Opp. Season 22 11 24 28 28
Opp. Last 7 24 7 9 22 8 Opp. Last 7 9 17 17 23 26

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers don’t seem to be going anywhere fast. They are like the old guy that is driving in the fast lane on the freeway. You aren’t supposed to be in that lane if you are going to drive slower than the speed limit. The Lakers are getting a lot of heat from the media, but did anyone really expect them to be better than they are?

The Lakers draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 17th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. However, as with most Lakers’ games, this has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Lakers are 8.5-point underdogs on the road.

Kobe Bryant missed this morning’s shootaround and is listed as questionable to play tonight. If he is unable to suit up, we can give a small boost to Metta World Peace, Jordan Clarkson, and Lou Williams. Even if Bryant is ruled out, I’m not going to target anyone in the Lakers’ backcourt. Julius Randle is an interesting play here. The Mavericks have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to power forwards this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 28.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.7
FP/Game: 26.7 — FP/Min.: 0.94

Dallas

The Mavericks are coming off of emotional win against the Clippers. They are back to .500 for the season and they have a good chance to improve upon their record tonight with an easy matchup against the Lakers at home.

The Lakers are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at a fast pace and they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks have an implied team total of 108.8 points, which is nearly seven points higher than their average points scored per game on the season.

It had been a while, but we finally had a Wesley Matthews sighting. After a porous start to the season, he came alive against the Clippers, finishing with 25 points, six rebounds, and three assists. He is close to a borderline elite play tonight on DraftKings, where he is listed at a bargain price of $4,500. Dirk Nowitzki is also worth a look here, as the Lakers have allowed the third most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

Elite Plays

Wesley Matthews

FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 26.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.8
FP/Game: 16.3 — FP/Min.: 0.62

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 27.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.2
FP/Game: 31.0 — FP/Min.: 1.12

Zaza Pachulia

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 25.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.1
FP/Game: 25.0 — FP/Min.: 0.97

Houston at Denver – 9:00 PM

Houston Denver
houstonnba Vegas Total 210.0 denvernba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 107.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 100.80 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ty Lawson Marcus Thornton James Harden Trevor Ariza Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried J.J. Hickson
Opp. Season 29 28 6 11 22 Opp. Season 24 17 28 30 21
Opp. Last 7 29 19 14 4 20 Opp. Last 7 22 15 28 30 18

Houston

The Rockets have a disappointing 4-4 record to start the season, but no one seems to have noticed thanks to how bad the Grizzlies have been playing. They should send the Grizzlies a Christmas card for their efforts. Dwight Howard is going to sit out either tonight’s game against the Nuggets or tomorrow’s game against the Mavericks. Given the caliber of the two opponents, I would guess that they will save him for tomorrow, but we shall see.

The Rockets draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight. The Nuggets play at a fast pace and they are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Rockets have an implied team total of 107.5 points tonight, which is the third highest of the 22 teams playing tonight.

James Harden is in play either way, but he would obviously see a boost if Dwight Howard is out tonight. If Howard plays, both players make nice options against this paltry Nuggets’ defense. Ty Lawson has been underwhelming through the first eight games, but he heads back to Denver to take on his former team. He will have a little added motivation to play well tonight. He is still a risky cash game option, but fire him up in tournaments. Marcus Thornton remains a nice fantasy play as long as he remains in the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Trevor Ariza and Terrence Jones would both see a small boost if Howard is out.

To sum it up, all five Rockets’ starters are in play tonight, regardless of what their lineup looks like.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,000 — DK: $10,100
Min/Game: 39.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 28.9
FP/Game: 44.9 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Dwight Howard – DraftKings specific and only if he plays tonight

FD: $8,400 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 30.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.7
FP/Game: 38.6 — FP/Min.: 1.25

Marcus Thornton

FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 35.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.9
FP/Game: 29.7 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Secondary Plays

Ty Lawson

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 38.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.9
FP/Game: 24.3 — FP/Min.: 0.63

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 36.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.6
FP/Game: 23.4 — FP/Min.: 0.64

Terrence Jones – If Dwight Howard is out

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 20.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.2
FP/Game: 14.8 — FP/Min.: 0.71

Denver

The Nuggets have played better than most would have expected. They are 4-4 to start the season and they are looking for their third win in a row tonight. This is expected to be a fast-paced, high-scoring game, which is always good for fantasy production.

The Rockets have been very bad defensively this season, ranking 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nuggets are small underdogs tonight at home, but they still have a respectable team total of 102.5 points.

As long as the Nuggets can keep this game close, this game should provide some great fantasy outings. Emmanuel Mudiay has struggled with consistency, but he is coming off of three strong outings. He is a borderline elite play tonight against Ty Lawson. Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried are also in play in what should be a fast-paced game, although they are secondary options at their respective positions. Many people may look to J.J. Hickson as a value option tonight, but the Rockets play a lot of small ball and if Dwight Howard is out, Hickson could see very limited action tonight.

Elite Plays

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 30.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.2
FP/Game: 26.8 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Secondary Plays

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 34.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 19.3
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min.: 0.81

Kenneth Faried

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 28.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.8
FP/Game: 29.8 — FP/Min.: 1.05

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious