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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-19 03:37:57

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Hornets
atlantanba Vegas Total 207.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 105.0
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 3.4
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 14 20 11 7 16 2016-17 18 14 13 5 5

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are winners of six straight and currently sit atop the Eastern Conference standings. The presence of Dwight Howard has improved their defense slightly, but his real impact has been the glass. The Hawks were ranked near the bottom of the NBA in rebounding differential in each of the last few seasons. This year they are ranked fourth in that category at +4.0 rebounds per game over their opponents. Speaking of Howard, he is expected to play tonight after missing Wednesday’s game with a quad injury. Thabo Sefolosha has already been ruled out with a knee injury. The Hawks draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets in what could be a defensive struggle. The Hornets are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency this season. The Hawks some into the game as 3-point underdogs with an implied total of 102 points.

Dennis Schroder hasn’t been a big drop off from Jeff Teague as the Hawks’ starting point guard, but he hasn’t taken that leap forward that many expected him to this season. In just over 30 minutes per game, he is averaging 27.2 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 28.2%. Point guard is almost always the deepest position in fantasy basketball and tonight is no exception. With a mediocre matchup against Kemba Walker, Schroder is an easy fade. Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway should both see boosts in minutes and usage with Thabo Sefolosha out, although their matchup against the Hornets’ wings isn’t ideal. Paul Millsap is the top target from Atlanta tonight. His price is down across the industry and we know he can fare well in difficult matchups. If for some reason Dwight Howard is unable a late scratch, Mike Muscala would become one of the top values in the slate. In his spot start the other night, Muscala put up 25.5 fantasy points in 33 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Dennis Schroder $6,000 $5,900 $10,400 0.90 30.3 0.2 27.2 0.2 28.2% -1.3% 14
Kyle Korver $3,800 $3,900 $7,300 0.63 26.6 1.4 16.8 3.6 15.7% 0.6% 20
Kent Bazemore $4,800 $5,200 $8,900 0.81 28.3 1.5 23.0 1.6 19.6% 1.4% 11
Paul Millsap $7,400 $7,800 $13,700 1.02 32.8 0.5 33.4 -5.7 25.3% -5.2% 7
Dwight Howard $7,700 $7,200 $12,500 1.25 28.3 -2.0 35.3 -7.9 21.4% -3.5% 16
Thabo Sefolosha $4,400 $4,000 $6,000 0.85 24.0 -3.5 20.3 -7.6 14.4% -2.1% 11
Mike Muscala $4,300 $4,800 $7,600 0.92 21.6 3.3 19.8 4.0 15.9% 1.1% 7

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have gotten off to as good of start as anyone could have expected, boasting a 7-3 record with a point differential of +5.7 per game. They have played at a slightly above-average pace and are ranked 14th in points scored per game. The biggest reason for their success has been their stellar play on the defensive end of the floor. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are also a stout defensive team. Atlanta is ranked seventh in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. The good news is that the Hornets are playing at home. They have an implied total of 105 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

Kemba Walker has had some serious home/road splits in his career and in a short sample this year, that’s the case yet again. If you pull up his profile on DraftKings and click on the splits tab, you can see that he is averaging 12 more fantasy points per game at home than he is on the road (I bet a lot of you didn’t know you could see home/road splits on DK did you?). Even though the Hawks have a good defense as a whole, their weakest spot has been defending point guards. Walker is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board, as he should get lost in the shuffle with all of the great point guard options. Nicolas Batum has really stepped up his play in the last three games, averaging 29.2 fantasy points per game. He’s far from a must play, but he is a viable option at shooting guard. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been too inconsistent to use on a ten-game slate. As for the bigs, I haven’t been burned by fading them yet this season. With so many bodies splitting minutes, I will continue to avoid the situation entirely.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $8,500 $8,200 $12,000 1.24 32.7 1.1 40.6 7.6 31.7% -0.5% 18
Nicolas Batum $6,700 $6,700 $10,700 0.91 34.0 2.0 31.0 8.2 21.0% 0.6% 14
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,200 $5,100 $8,600 0.76 31.1 6.1 23.6 -3.0 12.6% -0.2% 13
Marvin Williams $4,800 $4,800 $8,200 0.78 28.5 -0.5 22.4 -1.1 18.5% 3.1% 5
Cody Zeller $4,200 $4,000 $7,100 0.92 22.7 1.0 20.9 -2.0 17.8% -2.8% 5
Frank Kaminsky $4,100 $4,000 $7,300 0.85 23.1 -0.7 19.6 0.0 22.7% 0.6% 5

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Nicolas Batum

Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Indiana Pacers
phoenixnba Vegas Total 218.0 indiananba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 105.3 Team Total 112.8
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- 5.6
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 13 8 11 17 23 2016-17 24 16 27 29 11

Phoenix Suns

The Suns may not have the worst record in the NBA, but they have been a dumpster fire this season. Despite having a wealth of young talent, they have not played well together and struggle to give a consistent effort night in and night out. The good news is that they are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game, which basically makes them the equivalent of Coors Field in MLB or the Saints in the NFL. The Suns draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. If this game stays close, it could turn into a shootout. The Suns are currently listed as 7.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 105.3 points.

After a nice stretch of games, Eric Bledsoe has come crashing back down to Earth. In his last three outings, he is averaging 27.7 fantasy points. I don’t mind his matchup against Jeff Teague, but Bledsoe may not crack the list of top ten point guard plays tonight. Devin Booker leads the Suns’ starters in true usage and is priced fairly across the industry. He should have an exploitable height advantage over Monta Ellis at shooting guard. T.J. Warren was a great play earlier in the season, but his minutes and fantasy production are trending in the wrong direction. Marquese Chriss isn’t seeing enough minutes, even though he is a talented young player. Tyson Chandler has been ruled out tonight, which means Alex Len will draw another start at center. In four starts this season, he is averaging ten points and ten rebounds. He is a top value in this slate. Jared Dudley is also worth a look in tournaments, as he could push for 30 minutes off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Eric Bledsoe $7,200 $6,600 $11,200 0.95 33.2 -2.5 31.7 -4.0 25.4% -2.2% 13
Devin Booker $6,500 $6,500 $10,400 0.79 35.3 -1.4 28.0 1.2 26.1% -0.3% 8
T.J. Warren $6,000 $6,100 $9,100 0.88 34.3 -6.1 30.2 -4.2 22.3% 0.9% 11
Marquese Chriss $3,500 $3,000 $6,800 0.74 14.4 1.0 10.7 0.5 20.1% 2.2% 17
Tyson Chandler $4,700 $4,700 $9,000 0.83 27.8 -7.1 23.1 -8.1 9.6% -3.7% 23
Alex Len $4,800 $4,200 $9,100 0.99 21.5 1.5 21.2 -2.4 17.4% -0.6% 17
Brandon Knight $4,800 $4,300 $8,700 0.79 25.2 0.0 20.0 7.7 26.7% 2.2% 8
Jared Dudley $3,800 $3,700 $7,600 0.67 24.7 2.4 16.6 3.2 13.9% 2.3% 17

Elite Plays – Alex Len

Secondary Plays – Devin Booker, Jared Dudley

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are 6-6 on the season, but sport a 6-1 record at home. They have a good chance to add to their impressive home resume with a win tonight over the Suns. The Pacers have made an effort to push the pace this season, but they are still ranked 12th in points scored per game. They draw arguably the best matchup in all of fantasy basketball tonight. As I mentioned earlier, the Suns are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game at 116. The only concern here is a potential blowout, but the spread is set at only 7.5 points. The Pacers have an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 6.5 points above their season average.

Jeff Teague has really played well for the Pacers this season and it may surprise you to find out that he leads their team in true usage rate. He is averaging 33.9 fantasy points in his last three games and gets a great matchup against the Suns’ backcourt. The only downside with Teague is that his price is at a season-high of $6,500 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m still off of the Monta Ellis train as long as he is in the starting lineup. His usage with the first unit just isn’t high enough for my liking. Paul George couldn’t be in a better spot tonight. His price is affordable across the industry, his fantasy production has been trending upward, and the Suns are ranked 27th against small forwards this season. Myles Turner and Thaddeus Young would have some appeal in a smaller slate, but there are better options at each of their respective positions. C.J. Miles is an interesting SF2, as he is still $4,400 on FanDuel.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $6,500 $6,500 $10,400 0.94 31.6 1.5 29.7 4.2 26.7% -1.2% 24
Monta Ellis $5,600 $5,300 $9,500 0.71 33.9 1.2 24.1 1.5 18.1% -1.0% 16
Paul George $8,600 $8,100 $13,200 1.04 34.7 0.8 36.2 2.1 26.4% -1.3% 27
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,000 $9,900 0.79 29.5 0.8 23.3 3.0 15.4% 1.9% 29
Myles Turner $6,100 $6,000 $11,000 1.08 27.5 1.3 29.6 -1.6 20.1% -1.0% 11
C.J. Miles $4,400 $5,000 $8,200 0.93 24.0 2.3 22.2 -1.9 19.9% -4.1% 27

Elite Plays – Paul George

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, C.J. Miles

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers
detroitnba Vegas Total 204.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 97.5 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 19 23 20 1 12 2016-17 23 10 5 10 22

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are 6-6 to start the season and are one of the only teams in the NBA to average less than 100 points per game, while also holding their opponents to less than 100 points per game. Basically, they haven’t been a great team to see on the schedule when it comes to daily fantasy. They are ranked 23rd in pace of play and they have been excellent defensively. Tonight they head to Cleveland to take on the defending-champion Cavaliers, who are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Pistons are a tough sell tonight, as they are 9-point underdogs with the third lowest implied total in the slate. The one position to attack the Cavaliers with in the past has been at point guard, but Ish Smith doesn’t grade out as a great play tonight. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could push for 38-40 minutes tonight if he is asked to defend LeBron James. KCP could be worth a look as a GPP flier in tournaments. I will be avoiding the rest of the Pistons.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ish Smith $5,400 $5,500 $8,800 0.80 30.1 1.4 24.2 2.6 24.5% -2.9% 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,900 $5,300 $8,400 0.68 33.8 1.6 23.0 2.9 19.4% 5.1% 23
Marcus Morris $5,100 $5,000 $8,600 0.75 32.1 1.5 24.2 -3.2 20.1% -3.3% 20
Tobias Harris $6,100 $6,100 $9,300 0.82 33.8 3.4 27.6 7.5 21.9% -0.8% 1
Andre Drummond $8,000 $7,700 $12,400 1.20 30.1 -2.1 36.1 -6.8 22.8% -1.6% 12
Jon Leuer $4,700 $5,100 $7,100 0.83 26.9 0.7 22.3 6.4 17.1% 3.1% 1

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (GPP)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers are coming off of a bad loss against the Pacers, but we have to remember that they gave LeBron James the night off. They should get back to their dominating ways tonight against the Pistons at home. This game features a low over/under and the potential to turn into a blowout. That’s typically not the combination that we like to see when analyzing games for potential fantasy targets. The Cavaliers’ offense is as efficient as any in the NBA, but this is still a subpar matchup. The Pistons are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency this season.

Kyrie Irving draws the best matchup of the five starters. Ish Smith is far from an elite defender, as evidenced by the Pistons’ DvP ranking against point guards. Irving remains a viable play in all formats, but he’s far from a must play in a ten-game slate. J.R. Smith is questionable for tonight’s game, although I expect him to play after going through shoot-around this morning. LeBron James should be well rested and he provides one of the highest floors in the slate. My main issue is that the matchup doesn’t bode well for his ceiling. I can make the argument for four players having a higher ceiling than James tonight. Kevin Love continues to dominate at his price point, but this could be a nice spot to fade him. The Pistons have been stout against power forwards and the game in general lacks fantasy appeal. Tristan Thompson is a sneaky punt at center. I always like targeting good rebounding centers against Andre Drummond.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,400 $7,600 $12,000 1.02 34.3 -3.1 34.9 -0.9 32.1% 1.8% 23
J.R. Smith $4,300 $4,300 $8,500 0.62 31.9 19.9 14.8% 10
LeBron James $10,100 $10,000 $14,800 1.30 37.0 1.4 48.0 1.2 32.4% 0.9% 5
Kevin Love $7,800 $8,000 $11,700 1.13 32.8 -1.5 37.0 3.5 26.6% 0.9% 10
Tristan Thompson $4,700 $4,700 $7,500 0.80 28.0 1.0 22.3 3.3 7.9% 0.6% 22
Iman Shumpert $3,600 $4,000 $6,900 0.63 24.3 5.1 15.4 -2.0 13.7% 0.6% 10

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Boston Celtics
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 224.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread -7.0 Vegas Spread 7.0
Team Total 115.8 Team Total 108.8
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 4.0
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Marcus Smart Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 6 12 27 23 29 2016-17 26 21 15 27 21

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors seem to have worked out the kinks. They have won nine of their last ten games and currently sport a five-game winning streak. The buzz about their immediate demise has calmed down considerably. In a surprise to no one, they are ranked third in pace of play and they league the league in points scored per game at 117.4. Tonight they take on a Celtics’ defense that is ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Warriors have the highest implied total in the slate at 115.8 points and even that seems a bit low. This is one of the few times this season where you can make a case to play four Warriors.

Stephen Curry is back to being the Steph that we all know and love. In his last three games, he is averaging 47.7 fantasy points with a true usage of 31.8%. On average, he plays the fewest minutes of the big four, but he should push for 35 minutes tonight against the Celtics. It will be interesting to see how the Celtics match up against the Warriors, because they can’t really afford to put Avery Bradley on Curry because it would leave Isaiah Thomas on Klay Thompson. Assuming Bradley sticks with Thompson defensively, he’s probably my least favorite target of the big four, but he is still worth a look in tournaments. Kevin Durant is too cheap across the industry and has a huge mis-match against Marcus Smart. While Smart is an excellent defender, Durant will be able to post him up and shoot over him every time down the floor. Draymond Green is averaging 39 fantasy points per game and draws a nice matchup against a Celtics’ frontcourt that is ranked 23rd against power forwards and 24th in rebounding differential. You can stack the Warriors tonight in tournaments and can even use two or three of them paired up in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Stephen Curry $9,100 $9,400 $14,300 1.23 33.1 1.6 40.8 6.9 31.6% 0.2% 6
Klay Thompson $5,700 $6,100 $10,900 0.75 34.2 -2.0 25.7 -0.7 23.2% 1.4% 12
Kevin Durant $9,700 $9,500 $15,100 1.34 35.1 -0.8 47.0 -0.8 28.3% 2.2% 27
Draymond Green $8,200 $8,000 $12,300 1.17 33.4 0.2 39.0 -0.2 19.3% 0.6% 23
Zaza Pachulia $3,500 $3,300 $8,000 0.86 16.9 -3.0 14.5 -1.2 13.1% 0.6% 29
Andre Iguodala $3,900 $3,600 $7,700 0.66 24.8 -0.8 16.3 2.8 11.6% -0.4% 27

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are one of the few teams that matches up well with the Warriors, but that’s only when they are healthy. With Jae Crowder out and Al Horford questionable, they aren’t exactly at full strength. This is still a game that I expect Boston to get up for though, and Vegas is expecting it to be competitive. The Celtics are only 7-point underdogs with an implied total of 108.8 points. There are very few times when a 7-point underdog can have the fifth highest implied total in a ten-game slate. This is a favorable matchup to exploit in daily fantasy, as the Warriors are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency.

Isaiah Thomas is going to be a liability on the defensive end of the floor tonight, but Brad Stevens may have to play him 35 minutes if they are going to keep the game close. Thomas has been incredible this season, averaging 39.8 fantasy points per game with a true usage of 35.5% (sixth highest in the NBA). He is arguably my favorite tournament play in the entire slate and he is cash playable on DraftKings at $7,900. Avery Bradley price is a bit higher than what we are used to, but he could also push for 38-40 minutes if this game stays close. His ownership will be lower than it should be in a matchup against the uptempo Warriors. Marcus Smart is also in play in all formats, as he is the cheapest of the three Celtics’ guards. Kelly Olynyk has really let us down in the last two games, but I will gladly go back to the well on FanDuel ($4,000) if Al Horford is ruled out tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Thomas $8,300 $7,900 $11,200 1.19 33.4 -0.4 39.8 0.7 35.5% 3.5% 26
Avery Bradley $7,000 $7,000 $10,900 0.97 36.1 -1.1 34.9 -3.4 23.5% 1.1% 21
Marcus Smart $5,600 $5,500 $8,100 0.74 33.2 2.3 24.6 -0.8 19.7% -3.7% 15
Amir Johnson $4,300 $4,300 $7,700 0.80 23.6 5.3 18.8 5.7 14.8% 0.5% 27
Al Horford $6,700 $6,000 $11,700 0.97 29.5 28.7 17.9% 21
Kelly Olynyk $4,000 $4,600 $7,400 0.65 29.6 1.0 19.3 -1.0 18.1% 0.5% 21

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (GPP), Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk (if Al Horford is ruled out)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (Cash), Kelly Olynyk (if Al Horford is active)

Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans
portlandnba Vegas Total 214.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 106.3
Pace +/- 1.7 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Allen Crabbe Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Tim Frazier E’Twaun Moore Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 16 28 26 27 10 2016-17 11 17 22 26 28

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers were blown out last night against the Rockets and now have to play the second leg of back-to-back road games. The good news is that they are facing a very beatable Pelicans’ team that could potentially be without Anthony Davis. Portland has fared well offensively this season, ranking eighth in pace of play and tenth in points scored per game. They come into tonight’s contest as 2-point favorites in a game that features an over/under of 214.5 points. The Blazers have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 1.7 points above their season average.

Damian Lillard was quiet in last night’s loss, but has a great chance to bounce-back tonight against the Pelicans. Tim Frazier is far from a top-notch defender and Jrue Holiday could be a little rusty after missing the first few weeks of the season. I don’t see Lillard as an elite play in a points-per-dollar sense, but I will certainly have some exposure to him in tournaments. C.J. McCollum draws an excellent matchup against the likes of Buddy Hield and E’Twuan Moore. The Pelicans are currently ranked 28th against shooting guards this season. Allen Crabbe started last night’s game at small forward, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blazers go big tonight to match up against Anthony Davis. I would much rather target Maurice Harkless at the three than if he has to face Davis.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Damian Lillard $9,600 $9,100 $13,800 1.13 35.9 -0.8 40.7 -1.3 32.7% 0.4% 16
C.J. McCollum $7,500 $7,400 $11,000 0.97 34.5 0.0 33.4 -3.6 27.2% 2.9% 28
Allen Crabbe $3,800 $4,200 $7,300 0.56 29.4 -1.4 16.4 -2.1 13.2% 0.7% 26
Maurice Harkless $4,600 $5,000 $7,800 0.69 30.6 0.2 21.3 4.5 14.9% 0.3% 27
Mason Plumlee $5,100 $5,200 $8,100 0.94 26.2 -1.1 24.6 1.2 18.8% -1.4% 10
Evan Turner $3,900 $3,800 $8,300 0.67 24.1 1.6 16.1 7.1 18.8% 5.9% 26

Elite Plays – C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless (FD)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, Maurice Harkless (DK), Allen Crabbe

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are 2-10 on the season, but they do have some good news coming their way. Jrue Holiday is back with the team, he went through practice, and he is expected to make his season debut tonight. Holliday is expected to come off the bench and play less than 30 minutes. His return will cut into the minutes of Tim Frazier, Langston Galloway, and potentially E’Twaun Moore. The big question mark surrounding the Pelicans is the availability of Anthony Davis. He missed Wednesday’s game with a quad injury, but is reportedly expected to play tonight. The Pelicans catch the Blazers at a perfect time, as they are in the second half of back-to-back road games. New Orleans has an implied total of 106.3 points, which is the tenth highest in the slate and 6.2 points above their season average.

With Jrue Holiday back in the mix, the time for using Tim Frazier in DFS may have come to an end. He should still play between 25-30 minutes, but that’s not nearly enough at his price point. For now, Anthony Davis is the only option that I am considering from the Pelicans until we know how their rotation is going to shake out. Davis is a risky fantasy option when healthy and now he comes into this game with two separate injuries (back and quad) in the last week. While I’m not sure I can take the risk in cash games, he makes a tremendous tournament play against a Blazers’ defense that is ranked 26th against power forwards and dead last in rebounding differential. This is the best matchup Davis has had in a couple of weeks and I want to get at least some exposure to him if he is cleared to play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Tim Frazier $5,100 $4,900 $9,600 0.88 29.7 -0.9 26.0 -9.7 23.5% -1.0% 11
Buddy Hield $3,900 $3,500 $7,600 0.74 21.1 1.4 15.6 2.1 24.1% -3.2% 17
Dante Cunningham $3,600 $3,400 $6,000 0.55 22.6 1.9 12.4 1.1 12.5% -1.2% 22
Anthony Davis $11,400 $10,800 $15,900 1.43 37.7 -1.1 53.8 -4.4 31.6% 5.2% 26
Omer Asik $3,500 $3,000 $7,400 0.68 18.1 -3.0 12.3 -3.4 9.6% -1.5% 28
E’Twaun Moore $4,500 $4,400 $7,500 0.68 30.1 -2.0 20.5 -2.4 20.4% 3.5% 17
Solomon Hill $3,500 $3,700 $7,700 0.58 26.0 -2.7 15.1 -3.6 12.4% -0.6% 22

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (Cash)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious