NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 24th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.0 |  | Vegas Total | 208.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | John Collins | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 20 | DvP | 26 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 7 | |
| DRPM | -2.71 | 0.39 | 0.08 | -0.24 | 0.41 | DRPM | -0.67 | -1.21 | -0.74 | 0.27 | 0.31 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks have won seven of their last ten games and are playing with a ton of confidence. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Other than the slow pace, this is a great matchup for the Knicks. They come into the game with an implied total of 105 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Jarrett Jack hasn’t been particularly effective as the starting point guard, but he is averaging 28 minutes in his last three games. We know that the Hawks struggle against point guards, so Jack makes a decent value on DraftKings ($3,800). Courtney Lee also grades out as a nice value DraftKings, but I’m not sure I will be going there in a nine game slate.
Tim Hardaway has been on a tear over the last few weeks and has the added bonus of facing his former team. Whether or not you put any stock into the whole revenge narrative, Hardaway has topped 40 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He does have a fairly difficult individual matchup against Taurean Prince, but I will be loading up on Hardaway in all formats.
The Knicks’ frontcourt is intriguing against a Hawks team that struggles to defend the paint and is one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Kristaps Porzingis has taken a backseat to Hardaway in the last two games, but still has an elite true usage rate of 30.5%. Enes Kanter has played well on both ends of the floor this season (no, that is not a typo). While there are a handful of centers I would rather target in cash games, Kanter is viable in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Ron Baker (Out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (11 of 18)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.3 | 3.3 | 26.1 | 1.9 | 0.66 | 15.5% | 45.4% | 16 | -2.71 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,200 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 24.3 | 4.6 | 32.4 | -0.6 | 0.75 | 15.1% | 56.0% | 30 | 0.39 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,600 | $6,600 | $13,800 | 31.4 | 9.2 | 33.7 | -1.6 | 0.93 | 23.0% | 54.4% | 25 | 0.08 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,300 | $8,900 | $18,400 | 43.8 | -5.0 | 32.9 | 0.2 | 1.33 | 30.5% | 57.3% | 25 | -0.24 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,400 | $6,100 | $11,900 | 29.4 | 1.2 | 26.2 | 3.2 | 1.12 | 17.6% | 66.7% | 20 | 0.41 |
Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter (GPP), Jarrett Jack (DK), Courtney Lee (DK)
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have lost eight of their last ten games and have the worst record in the NBA. The big concern when they are on the schedule is that they haven’t been able to keep many games close. Hopefully, that won’t be an issue tonight, as the spread is set at only 2.5 points against the Knicks. New York has been decent defensively, but the Knicks have an implied total of 103 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Dennis Schroder always seems to stand out as a great play in my NBA model. Perhaps it is because he has a true usage rate of 29%, which is the third highest of any point guard in the slate (only Russell Westbrook and Kyrie Irving have higher rates). Schroder is affordable across the industry and he draws an excellent matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 26th against point guards this season.
If you played daily fantasy basketball on Wednesday, there’s a good chance that you were burned by Taurean Prince. He wasn’t playing very well to begin with, but was benched after blowing a defensive assignment. We can’t have biases in DFS and I don’t mind going right back to Prince with both Mike Muscala and Luke Babbitt out. The best part is that his ownership will be down. Kent Bazemore presents an intriguing tournament play, but I’d rather use him in a smaller slate.
John Collins became an elite play in all formats the other night when he was announced as the starter. With Muscala and Babbitt out, he has the chance to play 30+ minutes once again. The one concern is his propensity to get into foul trouble. He is averaging 6.1 fouls per 36 minutes and will be asked to defend Kristaps Porzingis. I feel fine playing him (especially on DK), but don’t say that I didn’t warn you.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
Luke Babbitt (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.2 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,400 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 34.5 | 2.3 | 32.3 | 1.4 | 1.07 | 29.0% | 52.2% | 26 | -0.67 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,300 | $5,400 | $10,500 | 28.4 | -4.3 | 28.6 | -0.6 | 0.99 | 20.8% | 52.2% | 10 | -1.21 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,800 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 26.3 | -4.6 | 31.5 | -0.5 | 0.84 | 17.0% | 52.9% | 14 | -0.74 |
| John Collins | $5,700 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 25.0 | 10.6 | 23.0 | 9.9 | 1.09 | 17.8% | 61.3% | 4 | 0.27 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,500 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 24.6 | -0.9 | 24.4 | 1.7 | 1.01 | 14.4% | 67.4% | 7 | 0.31 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 13.8 | -9.3 | 18.3 | -11.9 | 0.75 | 13.7% | 35.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, John Collins (DK), Taurean Prince (GPP)
Secondary Plays – John Collins (FD), Taurean Prince (Cash)
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Terrence Ross | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 3 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 2 | DvP | 28 | 29 | 13 | 24 | 16 | |
| DRPM | 0.38 | 1.45 | 1.08 | 0.19 | 1.97 | DRPM | -0.57 | -0.65 | 0.55 | -0.70 | 1.75 | |
Orlando Magic
The Magic are looking to end a six game losing streak tonight against the Celtics, who reeled off 16 straight wins before finally losing on Wednesday night. For two teams trending in such opposite directions, I’m a bit surprised to see the spread set at only 7.5 points. In terms of the actual matchup, the Magic may have the worst one on the schedule tonight. Boston is ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Orlando has an implied total of only 100.8 points, which is the third lowest on the board.
With such a difficult matchup on the road, we can keep the analysis for the Magic short and sweet. Elfrid Payton has been a boom or bust fantasy option all year, but he did play 34 minutes and score 42 fantasy points his last time out. If nothing else, he’s worth a look in tournaments on DraftKings ($5,700). Evan Fournier production continues to trend downward, Terrence Ross is too inconsistent, and there are better values at small forward than Jonathon Simmons. With the Celtics being ranked first against power forwards, second against centers, and third in rebounding differential, I have little to no interest in Aaron Gordon or Nikola Vucevic.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (16 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -6.6 (17 of 18)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.3 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,200 | $5,700 | $12,000 | 25.6 | 2.6 | 25.7 | 1.9 | 0.99 | 20.1% | 44.8% | 3 | 0.38 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,000 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 30.5 | -9.3 | 32.4 | -2.1 | 0.94 | 21.1% | 61.5% | 2 | 1.45 |
| Terrence Ross | $4,300 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 19.4 | 1.4 | 27.1 | -0.8 | 0.72 | 15.2% | 51.2% | 17 | 1.08 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,400 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 34.0 | 0.9 | 32.1 | 1.8 | 1.06 | 18.7% | 63.3% | 1 | 0.19 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,800 | $6,600 | $11,500 | 34.1 | 0.5 | 29.7 | -0.9 | 1.15 | 21.8% | 57.2% | 2 | 1.97 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,500 | $4,200 | $9,800 | 21.6 | -7.4 | 24.8 | -2.7 | 0.87 | 21.3% | 59.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (DK GPP)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics’ winning streak finally came to an end on Wednesday, after losing to the Heat in Miami. They should be able to start a new streak tonight, as they host the struggling Magic, who are ranked 26th in both points allowed per game and rebounding differential. This is also a pace-up game for Boston, as the Magic are ranked sixth in pace of play. The Celtics have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the sixth highest on the board and six points above their season average.
Kyrie Irving continues to play well on both ends of the floor. On the season, he is averaging 38 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 29%. He draws an excellent matchup against Elfrid Payton and the Magic, who are ranked 28th against point guards this season. The only concern that I have with Irving is that he’s taken on more of a facilitator role in easier matchups. He’s still a borderline elite play tonight, but I’m not going to purposely build my lineups around him.
Aron Baynes and Terry Rozier are slowly being phased out of the rotation, which has opened up more minutes for Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Morris. Of the three, I prefer Tatum, as he is averaging 36 minutes and 33 fantasy points in his last three games. He’s also significantly cheaper than Brown on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Al Horford is one of those players that I don’t mind using if I’m down to my last position and I need a player at his price point, but he’s not someone that I will be forcing into my lineups. Nikola Vucevic is an underrated defender.
Notable Injuries
None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.6 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,500 | $8,300 | $14,400 | 38.0 | 7.7 | 31.6 | 2.9 | 1.20 | 29.2% | 57.6% | 28 | -0.57 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,700 | $6,500 | $13,600 | 28.3 | 0.2 | 32.5 | 2.0 | 0.87 | 18.7% | 57.0% | 29 | -0.65 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 30.5 | 3.1 | 0.90 | 16.0% | 63.2% | 13 | 0.55 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,900 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 23.7 | 2.5 | 23.4 | 0.5 | 1.01 | 21.4% | 56.3% | 24 | -0.70 |
| Al Horford | $6,900 | $6,900 | $12,100 | 32.9 | -4.8 | 32.7 | 2.7 | 1.00 | 16.9% | 62.8% | 16 | 1.75 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 25.5 | -1.9 | 30.9 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 19.1% | 39.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Aron Baynes | $3,000 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 15.4 | -8.5 | 18.0 | -5.2 | 0.86 | 14.3% | 47.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (DK), Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.5 |  | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 112.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Jeremy Lamb | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 27 | 19 | 16 | 15 | DvP | 20 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 6 | |
| DRPM | -0.16 | -1.56 | -1.02 | -0.61 | 0.10 | DRPM | -1.01 | -0.63 | 1.12 | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have struggled on the road all season (1-7), but we may have to push that aside tonight, as they have one of the best two matchups on the board. They get to square off against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Hornets’ implied total of 107.8 points isn’t much higher than their season average, but it’s significantly higher than what they average on the road. It’s also worth noting that their total is this high even though they are going to be without one of their best offensive players in Nicolas Batum.
Kemba Walker home/road splits are often exaggerated. We should certainly take note of them, but it’s not like we can never use him on the road. He has a true usage rate of 26%, he is averaging 37 fantasy points per game this season, and he gets to face a Cavaliers’ defense that is ranked 24th against point guards. While I like Kemba tonight, I absolutely love Jeremy Lamb. In fact, I am head over heels. Lamb averages over a fantasy point per minute and is going to draw the start for the injured Batum. In this situation and in this matchup, Lamb should be priced at $6,500 and I’d still consider using him. He is a lock and load play for me tonight.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist should also see a few extra minutes with Batum out and since he’ll be tasked with defending LeBron James. There’s a decent chance MKG plays 35 minutes here and if that happens, it’s hard to see him not reaching value on DraftKings ($4,000). On FanDuel, he’s more of a secondary option. Dwight Howard has scored at least 42 fantasy points in three straight games, but he did only score 13 against Cleveland in their last meeting. While I love Dwight’s upside, he’s best suited as a tournament play.
Notable Injuries
Nicolas Batum (Out)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (7 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (9 of 18)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,200 | $8,200 | $15,100 | 36.9 | -4.1 | 35.3 | 1.4 | 1.05 | 26.2% | 59.2% | 24 | -0.16 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,500 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 29.3 | 5.2 | 28.8 | -1.9 | 1.02 | 22.2% | 58.4% | 27 | -1.56 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,100 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.4 | 3.0 | 24.3 | 8.9 | 0.76 | 13.2% | 55.0% | 19 | -1.02 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 18.3 | 1.6 | 25.9 | 2.2 | 0.71 | 12.7% | 58.7% | 16 | -0.61 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,600 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 34.1 | 14.5 | 30.1 | 2.2 | 1.13 | 18.7% | 57.1% | 15 | 0.10 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,100 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 19.4 | 1.0 | 24.9 | -3.5 | 0.78 | 19.0% | 52.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker (GPP), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK)
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD), Dwight Howard (GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have won six games in a row, but they haven’t exactly done it in dominating fashion. Their point differential on the season is the worst of any of the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference. They come into tonight’s game as 5-point favorites against the Hornets, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game this season. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the third highest on the board and 1.3 points above their season average.
Jose Calderon has been serviceable in the last two games, but there’s a zero percent chance that I play him in a nine game slate. If Iman Shumpert is ruled out, Dwyane Wade could make for an excellent tournament play. We know the upside is there and we could see his minutes spike if Shumpert is unable to suit up. LeBron James is obviously the top play from Cleveland, but I may actually fade him tonight. I know that LeBron is matchup-proof, but Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an excellent defender and there are two superstars from New Orleans that I would rather target. LeBron’s price is at one of its highest points of the season and he always garners high ownership.
Jae Crowder has averaged 21 fantasy points in his last three games, but doesn’t really have that upside that we are looking for in tournaments. The only other play of note here is Kevin Love. He is averaging 33 minutes and 40 fantasy points over his last three games. He is a tough cover for Dwight Howard, who is not used to defending bigs on the perimeter. In their meeting last week, Love put up 22 points and ten rebounds in only 27 minutes of action.
Notable Injuries
Iman Shumpert (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (3 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $4,200 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 0.54 | 12.6% | 65.8% | 20 | -1.01 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 16.2 | -4.0 | 30.0 | 1.8 | 0.54 | 12.2% | 46.2% | 22 | -0.63 |
| LeBron James | $11,900 | $11,200 | $21,200 | 52.4 | -3.3 | 37.6 | -2.0 | 1.39 | 29.3% | 66.5% | 20 | 1.12 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,400 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 16.3 | 5.0 | 26.4 | 0.1 | 0.62 | 13.8% | 54.4% | 10 | 0.60 |
| Kevin Love | $7,900 | $7,700 | $14,600 | 35.2 | 4.6 | 29.8 | 3.3 | 1.18 | 22.3% | 59.4% | 6 | 1.40 |
| Dwyane Wade | $6,000 | $5,200 | $10,500 | 24.2 | 11.4 | 23.1 | 5.1 | 1.05 | 22.6% | 48.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 8:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 14 | 5 | 27 | 29 | DvP | 8 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 14 | |
| DRPM | -0.79 | 0.10 | -1.05 | 1.07 | 0.96 | DRPM | -0.28 | -1.08 | 0.73 | -0.27 | 0.10 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors draw one of the sneakiest matchups on the schedule. Everyone knows that the Suns and Cavaliers are elite matchups, but the Pacers aren’t far behind. They are ranked in the top ten in pace of play and in the bottom ten in points allowed per game. The Raptors come into the game as 2-point favorites with an implied total of 108.5 points. This is a game that could get overlooked by the masses, which makes it a great target for tournaments.
Kyle Lowry had a slow start to the season, but has scored at least 41 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He racks up peripheral statistics as well as just about any point guard in basketball and he draws a decent matchup against Darren Collison and the Pacers. His price feels a bit too expensive, but I will have some Lowry shares if I decide to stack this game. DeMar DeRozan is rarely owned in DFS and he has also been in good form, averaging 44 over his last three games. The one and final play on my radar isn’t an obvious one. Pascal Siakam is averaging 32 minutes and 28 fantasy points over his last three games and two of those outings were with Serge Ibaka playing. At $3,800 on DraftKings, Siakam is worth a look in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
C.J. Miles (Out)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 109.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (14 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,000 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 32.8 | 7.7 | 32.2 | 1.5 | 1.02 | 21.1% | 59.0% | 15 | -0.79 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $9,000 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 38.5 | 5.3 | 34.3 | -0.6 | 1.12 | 28.7% | 57.9% | 14 | 0.10 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,400 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 12.7 | -3.5 | 18.3 | 3.5 | 0.70 | 13.0% | 58.4% | 5 | -1.05 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 23.1 | -0.4 | 27.3 | 0.5 | 0.85 | 15.9% | 59.2% | 27 | 1.07 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 21.4 | -2.7 | 20.6 | -2.7 | 1.04 | 16.8% | 61.5% | 29 | 0.96 |
| Pascal Siakam | $4,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 18.4 | 10.0 | 20.5 | 11.1 | 0.90 | 14.9% | 56.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Norman Powell | $3,800 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.4 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 0.8 | 0.78 | 16.5% | 53.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam
Indiana Pacers
The are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight, as they take on the Raptors at home. Toronto has been an elite team defensively over the last few years, but are ranked close to the league average in pace of play, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season. With such a close spread, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game hit the over. These defenses aren’t as good as they have been in the past. The Pacers come into the game with an implied total of 106.5 points, which is right around the average of the 18 teams in action tonight.
Darren Collison has been extremely frustrating for DFS players. He seems to have letdown games in great spots and have breakout games in difficult matchups. Kyle Lowry and the Raptors have been tough on point guards this season, so if you want to play the difficult matchup angle, Collison has that going for him. I’d rather look to Rajon Rondo, Mario Chalmers, or Kris Dunn in this slate, but Collison does have some tournament appeal on FanDuel ($5,900). Victor Oladipo is priced up right now, but that’s because he is averaging 52 fantasy points in his last three games. He has an elite true usage rate and the Pacers have struggled against shooting guards. The only negative with Oladipo is that shooting guard is loaded in this slate.
I haven’t played nearly as much Bojan Bogdanovic as I should have so far this season. He continues to produce at a high level and I continue to expect his true shooting (66.5%) to regress. I suppose as long as he is playing big minutes and is priced below $5,000, we should have interest in both cash games and tournaments. As far as the Pacers’ frontcourt, I will continue to avoid them in all formats as long as everyone is healthy. They also have a difficult matchup against the likes of Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas, and Pascal Siakam.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Probable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (9 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.4 (16 of 18)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,900 | $6,000 | $12,100 | 28.3 | 1.7 | 31.8 | 0.7 | 0.89 | 18.7% | 58.2% | 8 | -0.28 |
| Victor Oladipo | $8,300 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 39.4 | 12.5 | 33.2 | 2.5 | 1.19 | 27.2% | 57.0% | 26 | -1.08 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 22.3 | 9.0 | 30.1 | 4.8 | 0.74 | 16.1% | 66.5% | 1 | 0.73 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,000 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 27.8 | 4.6 | 33.3 | 0.4 | 0.84 | 16.3% | 54.0% | 14 | -0.27 |
| Myles Turner | $7,700 | $6,700 | $12,000 | 32.9 | -1.3 | 29.0 | 0.8 | 1.14 | 18.4% | 53.5% | 14 | 0.10 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,400 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 19.6 | 0.6 | 24.3 | 1.6 | 0.81 | 16.7% | 54.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 16.8 | 1.3 | 20.3 | 0.9 | 0.83 | 17.5% | 41.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic
Miami Heat at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Justise Winslow | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 24 | DvP | 9 | 11 | 9 | 21 | 4 | |
| DRPM | -0.45 | 1.15 | -0.90 | 1.20 | -0.63 | DRPM | -1.03 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 0.55 | 2.86 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat are 8-9 on the year, which included a 4-4 record on the road. Much like the Pacers, the Wolves are an underrated matchup when it comes to fantasy production. They may play at an average pace (14th), but are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. Even though they are playing on the road, Miami has an implied total of 102 points, which is 1.5 points above their season average.
Tonight’s matchup suits the Heat well, as the two positions that the Wolves are best equipped to defend are small forward and power forward. This opens the door for Miami’s two best players, Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. Dragic is only $6,300 on FanDuel tonight, despite a nice matchup against Jeff Teague and a true usage rate of 24% on the season. He is a top five point-per-dollar option at point guard and you can make a case for him to be in the top three. Dion Waiters may end up drawing Jimmy Butler defense, which could be good news for Josh Richardson. However, in a nine game slate, I plan to avoid both.
Of the 18 starting centers in tonight’s slate, Karl-Anthony Towns has the worst DRPM at -0.63. I’ve been targeting centers against the Wolves all season and I don’t see a reason to stop now. Whiteside hasn’t been in the best of form recently and his price is a bit elevated, but that’s just going to drive down his ownership in tournaments. In his last two games against Towns, Whiteside put up lines of 19 points, 13 rebounds and 23 points, 14 rebounds. I’ll never pass on 50-fantasy point upside at low ownership in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.5 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (6 of 18)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,300 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 31.4 | -4.0 | 33.9 | -3.0 | 0.93 | 24.1% | 56.1% | 21 | -0.45 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 25.3 | -1.5 | 31.9 | -0.7 | 0.79 | 23.8% | 49.1% | 19 | 1.15 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.0 | -6.2 | 33.1 | -1.2 | 0.61 | 13.6% | 46.3% | 11 | -0.90 |
| Justise Winslow | $4,200 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.7 | 3.4 | 23.7 | -1.5 | 0.79 | 14.2% | 48.4% | 2 | 1.20 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $8,800 | $8,500 | $15,300 | 38.2 | -5.3 | 28.2 | -1.0 | 1.36 | 18.5% | 62.0% | 24 | -0.63 |
| James Johnson | $5,500 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 26.9 | -6.1 | 27.6 | -1.4 | 0.97 | 18.6% | 59.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 20.2 | -0.5 | 27.8 | -3.0 | 0.73 | 17.4% | 49.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (FD), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Hassan Whiteside (Cash)
Minnesota Timberwolves
I always have mixed feelings about the Wolves. On the one hand, they have four great players that can all take over a game offensively. This makes predicting fantasy production difficult on a nightly basis. On the other hand, Tom Thibodeau plays his starters as many minutes as anyone, which helps in the predictability of fantasy production. Tonight they host the Heat, who are ranked 19th in pace of play and eighth in points allowed per game. Minnesota has an implied total of 106.5 points, which is slightly below their season average.
Jeff Teague has been a go-to play of mine at point guard this season. He routinely plays minutes in the mid-30s, he has a relatively high true usage rate, and he doesn’t get as much attention from the opposing defense as a lot of star point guards. Teague is firmly in play in all formats tonight and I don’t mind pairing him with Goran Dragic in hopes that this game shoots out. Teague and Dragic are both below-average defenders. Andrew Wiggins will have big games every now and then, but he relies on scoring for such a high percentage of his fantasy production that he almost automatically has a bad fantasy night if his shot isn’t falling. With shooting guard being stacked tonight, I will pass on Wiggins.
Jimmy Butler is too expensive on FanDuel ($8,200) and too cheap on DraftKings ($6,800). We’ve seen him take on a larger role in the offense in the last couple of weeks and he’s finally starting to play like the MVP-candidate that he was in Chicago. The best part is that nobody seems to play him, so I will be loading up on Butler tonight on DraftKings. Taj Gibson is one of the only value power forwards that we can count on for 30+ minutes. He is a safe cash game target tonight, while I prefer the likes of John Collins and Bobby Portis in tournaments. Karl-Anthony Towns has scored 49 or more fantasy points in his last two games against Hassan Whiteside if you want to take a shot on him in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (9 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,900 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 32.6 | 3.5 | 33.9 | 3.4 | 0.96 | 21.1% | 53.5% | 9 | -1.03 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,200 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 34.1 | 5.2 | 36.2 | 0.8 | 0.94 | 20.7% | 53.5% | 11 | -0.43 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,100 | $6,300 | $13,500 | 30.0 | -0.4 | 36.4 | 3.0 | 0.82 | 21.2% | 52.6% | 9 | 1.27 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 25.8 | 2.8 | 31.2 | 2.3 | 0.83 | 12.5% | 59.0% | 21 | 0.55 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,300 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 40.5 | -6.6 | 34.3 | 0.5 | 1.18 | 20.0% | 63.4% | 4 | 2.86 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,200 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 15.1 | -1.5 | 17.2 | -5.0 | 0.88 | 22.7% | 56.2% | N/A | N/A |