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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-26 03:55:38

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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San Antonio Spurs at Boston Celtics – 1:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Boston Celtics
sanantonionba Vegas Total 202.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 99.8
Pace +/- -0.6 Pace +/- -3.9
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Marcus Smart Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 10 12 29 21 29 2016-17 5 24 1 5 8

San Antonio Spurs

We have a massive 15 game slate on tap tonight and in the spirit of being concise, we’ll keep the team analysis short and sweet. The Spurs draw a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. They are listed as 2.5-point favorites with an implied total of 102.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. The Spurs have been a tough team to target in daily fantasy this season, but there are two players on my radar against Boston. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 40.4 fantasy points per game and has a true usage rate over 30%. Jae Crowder is a competent defender, but he has been nursing an ankle injury. Pau Gasol minutes and production are both trending in the right direction and he draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked 29th against centers and 24th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Tony Parker $4,600 $4,200 0.74 25.9 0.7 19.1 9.4 21.7% 3.2% 10
Danny Green $4,100 $3,800 0.68 25.4 2.6 17.2 4.2 12.5% 0.3% 12
Kawhi Leonard $8,500 $8,100 1.19 33.8 1.2 40.4 2.1 30.4% -3.7% 29
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,900 $6,400 0.94 32.5 2.2 30.5 8.7 24.5% -1.1% 21
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,800 1.02 25.9 3.3 26.5 4.8 22.3% 5.4% 29
Patty Mills $4,000 $3,900 0.77 23.9 -0.8 18.4 -2.6 20.6% 2.4% 10

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have really slowed their pace of play down recently and are now ranked below the league average in possessions per 48 minutes. In addition to the slow pace, they also draw a difficult matchup against the Spurs. On the season, San Antonio is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics have an implied total of only 99.8 points, which is the eighth lowest in the slate and 3.8 points below their season average. Isaiah Thomas is having a career season and has one of the highest true usage rates in the NBA, but the Spurs aren’t exactly an exploitable matchup and there are a ton of viable point guards in this slate. Thomas is worth a look in tournaments, while the rest of the Celtics can be avoided.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Isaiah Thomas $8,200 $7,400 1.18 33.1 -1.3 38.9 -3.9 35.4% -1.7% 5
Avery Bradley $6,400 $6,100 0.91 35.7 -1.2 32.5 -8.5 22.6% -4.4% 24
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,200 0.71 32.0 -3.2 22.9 -5.4 19.7% -0.3% 1
Amir Johnson $3,600 $3,600 0.76 22.2 -4.9 16.8 -8.7 14.5% -1.1% 5
Al Horford $7,400 $6,500 1.12 31.6 3.3 35.3 9.9 21.0% 3.5% 8
Jae Crowder $5,100 $5,000 0.83 27.0 -1.9 22.3 -10.9 17.8% -1.1% 1

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (GPP)

Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Orlando Magic
washingtonnba Vegas Total 202.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 100.8
Pace +/- -2.4 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Jeff Green Serge Ibaka Nikola Vucevic
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 17 20 13 14 16 2016-17 6 22 23 18 9

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are ranked below the league in pace of play and points scored per game this season. While the Magic seem like a favorable opponent given their bad record, they are actually ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied total of 101.8 points, which is the tenth lowest in the slate and slightly lower than their season average. The Magic have been most susceptible to opposing back-courts, which puts both John Wall and Bradley Beal in play. It’s tough to pay the price for Wall in cash games, but he is certainly worth a look in tournaments in a matchup against Elfrid Payton. Beal is coming off of back-to-back 45 fantasy point outings and he played 40 minutes in each game. While I like the matchup, his price has come up enough that he makes more sense as a GPP play than a cash game option. Markieff Morris has really struggled of late, but his price on FanDuel is awfully appealing.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $9,600 $8,800 $13,100 1.27 33.5 2.0 42.6 6.0 37.1% -1.8% 17
Bradley Beal $6,300 $6,400 $10,600 0.87 32.9 3.4 28.7 10.4 26.1% 3.4% 20
Otto Porter $6,100 $6,200 $9,600 0.89 34.4 -1.3 30.5 -2.0 17.0% -1.5% 13
Markieff Morris $4,900 $5,300 $9,100 0.79 30.7 -7.2 24.2 -10.9 20.9% -3.2% 14
Marcin Gortat $6,400 $5,900 $9,700 0.87 35.0 0.3 30.4 2.6 13.9% 0.3% 16

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Orlando Magic

The Magic don’t have the best record overall, but they have been playing better in the last couple of weeks. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Wizards and they get to face them at home. On the season, Washington is ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Magic have an implied total of 100.8 points, which may not seem high, but it is actually 8.5 points above their season average. Their projected point differential is the best in the entire slate. Elfrid Payton is one of the most inconsistent starting point guards in the NBA, but he should benefit from an uptempo game against the Wizards. As always, I will have a little exposure to Payton in tournaments. Evan Fournier is one of the best cash game options that is continuously under-owned. He should see 35+ minutes against a Wizards’ team that struggles to defend wing players.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Elfrid Payton $5,800 $5,800 $9,800 0.86 30.0 -1.6 25.8 -2.0 23.4% -4.6% 6
Evan Fournier $5,300 $5,500 $9,900 0.71 34.0 0.1 24.2 -1.7 23.9% 0.4% 22
Jeff Green $3,700 $3,400 $7,100 0.65 22.3 2.2 14.5 -1.3 19.1% -0.2% 23
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $6,000 $9,900 0.85 29.9 2.8 25.5 5.9 20.7% 0.8% 18
Nikola Vucevic $6,200 $5,700 $10,100 1.06 27.0 0.0 28.7 -1.4 24.2% 0.9% 9
Aaron Gordon $4,500 $4,600 $8,600 0.77 27.0 -2.8 20.8 -7.2 19.6% -0.1% 23

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Philadelphia 76ers
chicagonba Vegas Total 203.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Team Total 105.5 Team Total 98.0
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- -1.7
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Jerryd Bayless Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Jahlil Okafor
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 14 29 12 28 2016-17 4 8 15 24 23

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls draw one of the best possible matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball. They get to face the Sixers and they get to face them in Philadelphia, which helps the blowout risk. On the season, the Sixers are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bulls have an implied total of 105.5 points, which seems a bit low given the fact that they are averaging 105.3 points per game this season. Rajon Rondo has been terrific in his last three games and he gets to face a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 25th against point guards. He is an elite play on FanDuel and a viable tournament play on DraftKings. Dwyane Wade price has come up across the industry and given the wealth of options, is more of a secondary play. Jimmy Butler is averaging over 47 fantasy points per game in his last three and deserves to be considered an elite play on FanDuel. Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez are both decent mid-range options against a Sixers’ team that doesn’t rebound well.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Rajon Rondo $5,700 $6,300 $10,100 0.88 30.6 4.3 26.9 8.0 22.6% -1.9% 25
Dwyane Wade $6,700 $6,600 $10,600 0.99 30.6 4.6 30.3 8.6 28.5% 1.9% 14
Jimmy Butler $8,800 $9,300 $12,800 1.17 35.5 3.7 41.5 6.7 29.4% 1.6% 29
Taj Gibson $5,300 $5,800 $9,100 0.87 28.7 4.6 25.1 -0.2 19.1% -0.4% 12
Robin Lopez $4,900 $5,700 $8,300 0.84 28.1 1.5 23.5 6.2 16.4% -2.0% 28
Nikola Mirotic $4,300 $4,800 $8,300 0.85 22.8 2.5 19.4 0.8 19.4% 0.1% 12

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo (FD), Jimmy Butler (FD)

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (DK), Jimmy Butler (DK), Dwyane Wade, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been a lot more entertaining this season thanks to Joel Embiid, but he isn’t expected to play tonight against the Bulls. That puts a big dent in the Sixers’ chances to win the game and possibly to even keep it close. They are listed as 7.5-point underdogs at home with an implied total of only 98 points, which is the sixth lowest in the slate. Jerryd Bayless is expected to draw the start at point guard and he played 30 minutes the other night. He makes a nice value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Robert Covington finally showed some signs of life the other night against the Grizzlies, but that was a game where the Sixers were without Gerald Henderson. With him expected back in the lineup tonight, I see Covington as a deep tournament play at best. Jahlil Okafor shed his minute restriction and could see minutes in the mid to upper-20s with Embiid out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jerryd Bayless $3,500 $3,800 $8,100 0.77 15.5 0.0 11.9 0.0 31.3% 0.0% 4
Gerald Henderson $4,100 $3,700 $8,500 0.69 25.1 -2.3 17.3 0.1 17.8% -1.3% 8
Robert Covington $4,400 $4,000 $8,800 0.69 27.2 -1.6 18.7 -0.8 16.8% 2.9% 15
Ersan Ilyasova $4,200 $4,200 $7,000 0.78 23.8 1.5 18.7 2.0 19.4% -0.7% 24
Jahlil Okafor $4,400 $4,300 $8,600 0.91 19.9 2.1 18.2 -3.1 24.6% -7.1% 23
Nik Stauskas $3,700 $3,400 $6,000 0.61 24.0 0.0 14.5 4.4 16.4% 2.4% 8

Elite Plays – Jerryd Bayless

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (GPP), Jahlil Okafor

Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Detroit Pistons
laclippersnba Vegas Total 201.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 97.5
Pace +/- -2.4 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 24 9 7 7 23 2016-17 15 2 3 1 3

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have won nine of their last ten games and own the best record in the NBA. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in what should be a defensive battle. On the season, Detroit is ranked sixth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The good news is that the spread is at only 6.5 points, so we could the Clippers’ starters get a full complement of minutes. The matchup may not be ideal, the full minute allotment is more than enough to offset it. Chris Paul is averaging 41.9 fantasy points per game and draws the best matchup of the five starters. The Pistons are ranked 24th against point guards, which should remain constant as long as Reggie Jackson is out. Blake Griffin has been a per-minute monster, but it’s hard to pay up for him in cash games with so many superstars in the slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Chris Paul $9,400 $8,300 $13,700 1.36 30.9 3.3 41.9 0.1 28.0% 0.1% 24
J.J. Redick $4,700 $4,800 $8,400 0.78 26.3 0.5 20.4 4.5 21.2% 0.9% 9
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 $6,800 0.52 23.7 1.8 12.2 -0.5 10.3% 1.1% 7
Blake Griffin $9,600 $8,200 $13,800 1.26 33.2 4.0 41.8 7.2 28.2% -0.6% 7
DeAndre Jordan $6,700 $6,200 $11,400 0.94 30.8 2.1 28.9 -0.8 14.7% -1.6% 23
Jamal Crawford $3,600 $3,800 $7,900 0.70 23.8 2.8 16.8 -7.6 22.1% -4.6% 9

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are ranked 24th in pace of play and 26th in points scored game. That’s not exactly the combination that we are looking for in daily fantasy. To make matters worse, they have to face a Clippers’ defense that is ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied total of only 97.5 points, which is the fourth lowest in the slate. Even though I expect the starters to log a ton of minutes here, the matchup is too difficult to warrant fantasy consideration. With 14 other games in the slate, we can avoid the Pistons altogether.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ish Smith $5,400 $4,900 $8,100 0.83 29.9 -0.7 24.7 1.7 23.9% -2.5% 15
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,900 $5,000 $8,400 0.68 33.3 -1.9 22.7 -2.5 19.8% 0.9% 2
Marcus Morris $5,000 $4,800 $8,600 0.74 32.2 0.8 23.8 -1.2 20.1% -0.7% 3
Tobias Harris $5,200 $5,500 $9,300 0.78 32.6 -4.9 25.3 -9.8 21.8% -0.9% 1
Andre Drummond $8,100 $7,300 $12,400 1.18 30.2 0.4 35.6 -1.3 23.7% 2.6% 3
Jon Leuer $4,500 $4,500 $7,100 0.82 26.5 -1.7 21.6 -2.8 17.4% 2.4% 1

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:30 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Cleveland Cavaliers
dallasnba Vegas Total 202.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Spread 14.5 Vegas Spread -14.5
Team Total 94.0 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- -95.8 Pace +/- -5.0
Proj. Starter Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 14 16 20 2 11 2016-17 1 19 4 4 13

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have had a rough go of things lately. They have lost seven games in a row and now own the worst record in the NBA. They are ranked 29th in pace of play and dead last in points scored per game. They draw one of the most difficult matchups on the board tonight, as they have to take on the Cavaliers in Cleveland. The Mavericks are listed as 14.5-point underdogs in a game that could easily turn into a blowout. Seth Curry and Harrison Barnes have both been popular DFS plays this season, but we don’t need to take the risk on either in a 15 game slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Seth Curry $4,800 $5,400 $8,000 0.68 27.6 7.5 18.7 4.4 20.5% 3.4% 14
Wesley Matthews $4,800 $4,600 $8,300 0.60 36.9 -1.1 22.1 -1.1 19.9% 0.1% 16
Harrison Barnes $6,100 $6,000 $10,300 0.78 38.1 -0.1 29.7 -3.9 24.7% -0.9% 20
Dirk Nowitzki $6,000 $5,200 $9,200 0.88 27.8 24.5 23.2% 2
Andrew Bogut $4,300 $3,900 $7,800 0.76 25.6 2.1 19.5 -0.7 13.6% -1.7% 11

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA, which helps them succeed regardless of the matchup. While they have the sixth highest implied total in the slate, the Mavericks are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA and they are ranked seventh in points allowed per game. The matchup isn’t exactly ideal, especially when you consider the fact that the Cavaliers are 14.5-point favorites. If you are playing in a turbo slate, you can look at Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love (STUFFING). However, in the main slate, I am just going to cross this game off my list and focus my attention elsewhere.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,600 $7,600 $12,000 1.04 33.8 -2.0 35.3 3.9 31.8% 1.1% 1
J.R. Smith $4,300 $4,000 $8,500 0.63 31.2 -6.2 19.6 -1.4 14.6% -0.8% 19
LeBron James $9,800 $9,400 $14,800 1.28 36.2 -3.1 46.3 -3.3 32.1% -1.1% 4
Kevin Love $7,800 $7,800 $11,900 1.12 32.3 -0.6 36.3 0.5 26.5% 1.3% 4
Tristan Thompson $4,900 $4,900 $7,500 0.84 28.2 0.8 23.6 5.9 8.3% 2.4% 13

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious