NBA Grind Down: Friday, October 20th

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ


Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Indiana Pacers
Article Image Vegas Total 225.5 Article Image Vegas Total 225.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Implied Team Total 114.5 Implied Team Total 111.0
Pace Projection +/- 13.0 Pace Projection +/- 0.5
Projected Starters Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Maurice Harkless Jusuf Nurkic Projected Starters Darren Collison Victor Oladipo Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Domantas Sabonis
Opponent DRPM -1.67 1.64 -2.76 1.69 1.92 Opponent DRPM -1.39 -1.93 -0.28 0.33 2.56

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

Noah Vonleh (Out)

The Blazers made quick work of the Suns in their opener. We didn’t quite get to see how their rotation is going to shake out. Not only was the game a one-sided affair, but they were playing without C.J. McCollum, who was suspended. McCollum will be back in the lineup tonight, as the Blazers take on the Pacers in Indiana. This game has all the makings of a shootout. Both teams want to push the tempo, the spread is close (3.5 points), and we have a massive total of 225.5 points on our hand. The Blazers are tied with the Warriors for the highest implied total of the slate.

Despite only playing only 29 minutes against the Suns, Damian Lillard still managed to top 50 fantasy points. His usage will take a slight hit with C.J. McCollum back in the lineup, but there should be plenty of production to go around against the Pacers, who gave up 131 points to the Nets on Wednesday night. Lillard’s price is up enough that I wouldn’t consider him a core play, but I’ll certainly have some exposure to him in tournaments and in game stacks. C.J. McCollum should be ready to go after watching the first game from the sidelines. He may get overlooked tonight (especially if the sites keep that red “O” next to his name). He’ll likely draw the defense of Victor Oladipo, but we’ve seen McCollum play well in tougher matchups. On a site like FanDuel where we have to roster two shooting guards, he is firmly in play.

Evan Turner may take the biggest production hit with McCollum back in the lineup, especially if he stays in the starting lineup. Turner should still see 28-30 minutes a night and his price is still reasonable, but I’m not forcing him into any lineups in a ten game slate. Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu will be tough to predict as long as they are both healthy. They will continue to cut into each other’s minutes and fantasy production. This is a potential blowup spot for Jusuf Nurkic if he can stay out of foul trouble. It sounds like Myles Turner is closer to doubtful tonight, so Nurkic will matchup against the likes of Domantas Sabonis and Al Jefferson.

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 131.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 116.6 (1 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,500 $9,300 $17,300 52.5 29.7 1.77 30.8% -1.67
C.J. McCollum $7,200 $7,200 $13,600 1.64
Evan Turner $4,400 $4,500 $8,800 25.3 25.3 1.00 16.9% -2.76
Maurice Harkless $4,800 $4,400 $8,700 18.0 25.6 0.70 16.4% 1.69
Jusuf Nurkic $7,900 $7,000 $13,300 23.7 23.0 1.03 20.3% 1.92
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,900 $4,800 $9,400 24.4 27.7 0.88 6.7% N/A

Elite Plays – C.J. McCollum (FD), Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum (DK & FDRFT), Evan Turner, Jusuf Nurkic (Cash)


Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Doubtful)

I’m not surprised by much in the NBA these days, but I was not expecting the 140-131 shootout between the Nets and Pacers on Wednesday. Looking back, we shouldn’t have been too surprised. When we have two bad teams that like to push the pace, we can get shootouts, even if the Vegas total suggests otherwise. Tonight’s game against the Blazers has shootout potential with one of the highest totals on the board. The Pacers come into the game as 3.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 111 points.

I was kicking myself for getting away from Darren Collison in the opener. I wrote him up in the Grind Down and suggested him as an elite play. When it came down to lineup building time, I ended up going another direction. It was obviously the wrong call, as Collison finished the game with over 40 fantasy points. Historically, he’s not a high-ceiling point guard, but he should see around 30 minutes a night and he draws another favorable matchup this time around. Last season, Damian Lillard finished with a DRPM of -1.39 (negative is not good). Collison remains a fine cash game play, but as always, point guard is loaded with options.

The play that everyone will gravitate to tonight is Victor Oladipo. With Myles Turner expected to miss the game, that will only help the usage of Oladipo in an offense that is already starved for talent. He played very well in the opener and his price is more than reasonable across the industry. He also gets to square off against C.J. McCollum (-1.93 DRPM). Bojan Bogdanovic has some volatility to his game (like most shooters do), but $3,700 for a starting small forward in a game that features a huge total is too cheap to pass up. If we end up needing the value, Bogdanovic could be a lock and load type of play on FanDuel.

It will be interesting to see what the Pacers decide to do as far as their starting lineup goes. The obvious choice is Al Jefferson, but he’s not really capable of playing more than 20 minutes at this stage in his career. Domantas Sabonis should see a boost in minutes regardless of whether or not he starts. The way I see it, Thaddeus Young is the player to roster in this frontcourt. He’s cheap on DraftKings ($5,800) and could play minutes in the mid to upper 30s. Lance Stephenson had one of the highest usage rates of any player on Wednesday night (32.3%). His price has come up, but he’s a sneaky tournament play against the Blazers.

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 76.0 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 73.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.1 (12 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Darren Collison $5,600 $5,800 $11,500 45.1 30.2 1.49 20.0% -1.39
Victor Oladipo $7,100 $6,900 $13,000 43.0 24.5 1.76 25.7% -1.93
Bojan Bogdanovic $3,700 $4,100 $8,000 11.0 29.4 0.37 12.5% -0.28
Thaddeus Young $6,300 $5,800 $11,500 44.7 33.3 1.34 19.1% 0.33
Domantas Sabonis $3,800 $3,500 $6,900 24.9 19.2 1.30 16.0% 2.56
Cory Joseph $4,300 $4,000 $7,800 28.6 24.7 1.16 17.6% N/A
Lance Stephenson $4,800 $5,000 $9,800 26.7 24.2 1.10 32.6% N/A

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (Cash), Victor Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic (FD), Thaddeus Young (DK)

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (GPP), Bojan Bogdanovic (DK & FDRFT), Thaddeus Young (FD & FDRFT), Lance Stephenson (GPP)


Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Milwaukee Bucks
Article Image Vegas Total 208.5 Article Image Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Implied Team Total 105.3 Implied Team Total 103.3
Pace Projection +/- -2.4 Pace Projection +/- -1.6
Projected Starters Derrick Rose Dwyane Wade LeBron James Jae Crowder Kevin Love Projected Starters Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent DRPM -0.73 -0.79 0.54 1.49 -0.53 Opponent DRPM -2.53 -0.63 1.57 1.37 1.93

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Isaiah Thomas (Out)

The Cavaliers barely held on to beat the Celtics in their season opener. They go from having an exploitable matchup at home to a very difficult one on the road. The Bucks will likely end up near the league average in terms of pace and they should end up in the top five in defensive efficiency. They are a very athletic team that has bought into Jason Kidd’s system. On the surface, an implied total of 105.3 points doesn’t seem terrible, but it’s the ninth lowest of the 20 teams in action tonight.

When we have small slates like last night, it’s harder to make a stand against teams because there are only so many that we can choose from. When we have larger slates like tonight, we can afford to fade entire teams and even entire games. There isn’t a lot that interests me from Cleveland outside of Kevin Love. After the game on Tuesday, head coach Tyronn Lue mentioned that they need to get Love more looks in their offense. When he’s playing the five, the Bucks are going to have a hard time matching up against him, whether it’s Thon Maker or Greg Monroe on the floor. I expect him to see a lot of open shots in this one and I’m a big fan of him being listed as a center on FanDuel ($6,800).

The rest of the Cavaliers are secondary options at best. Derrick Rose is cheap across the industry, but I’m not going to waste one of my coveted point guard spots on the injury-prone Rose. LeBron James is as matchup-proof as they come, but there are better options to pay up for tonight. Dwyane Wade did not look good in his first game with the Cleveland. I suppose Jae Crowder is worth a look on DraftKings. He is priced about a thousand dollars too cheap and he always brings a high floor to the table.

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.9 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Derrick Rose $5,300 $4,900 $9,800 19.8 31.3 0.63 21.3% -0.73
Dwyane Wade $5,600 $5,000 $9,800 16.9 28.5 0.59 16.9% -0.79
LeBron James $10,900 $10,500 $18,900 63.7 41.2 1.55 23.4% 0.54
Jae Crowder $5,300 $4,700 $9,200 25.0 34.7 0.72 14.5% 1.49
Kevin Love $6,800 $7,500 $13,800 26.2 28.4 0.92 17.3% -0.53
Tristan Thompson $4,000 $3,900 $7,700 13.2 19.6 0.67 10.3% N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – LeBron James, Jae Crowder (DK)


Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Jabari Parker (Out)

The Bucks aren’t quite to the level of the Sixers yet, but they are still one of my favorite teams to watch. They picked up a nice win over the Celtics in their season opener and now have their sights set on the Cavaliers. There’s a decent chance that they could start the year by beating the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee comes into the game as 2-point underdogs with an implied total of 103.3 points. I know it’s early, but Vegas seems to have more faith in this Cavaliers’ defense than I do. The Bucks have plenty of talent on offense and if anything, the Cavaliers got worse on the defensive end of the floor.

Jason Kidd has long been an enemy of DFS players. For years we have dealt with inconsistent rotations, random benchings, and late scratches. Perhaps he has learned the error of his ways. There weren’t nearly as many instances last season (at least that I can remember) and he’s giving his best players as many minutes as they can handle. Giannis Antetokounmpo price went up, but he’s still underpriced for what he brings to the table, especially on FanDuel where blocks and steals are worth three points each. In his last four games against the Cavaliers, Giannis has scored 69, 56, 48, and 30 fantasy points. He’s a core play for me tonight on FanDuel where he is listed as a power forward.

Outside of Antetokounmpo, there isn’t a lot to love with the Bucks. Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton both played over 40 minutes against the Celtics, but there are plenty of options at point guard and Middleton will draw the defense of either Jae Crowder or LeBron James. I will note that Middleton is slightly underpriced on DraftKings at $6,400.

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.1 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.0 (17 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,500 $5,000 $9,800 24.2 41.4 0.58 12.9% -2.53
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,500 $6,900 11.3 29.5 0.38 6.0% -0.63
Khris Middleton $7,700 $6,400 $12,600 35.8 43.4 0.82 18.7% 1.57
Giannis Antetokounmpo $11,300 $10,800 $19,200 61.1 36.9 1.66 31.9% 1.37
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,600 $7,000 7.6 13.8 0.55 11.9% 1.93
Greg Monroe $4,700 $4,800 $9,500 18.7 16.8 1.11 17.3% N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (DK)


Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Philadelphia 76ers
Article Image Vegas Total 217.0 Article Image Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Implied Team Total 108.0 Implied Team Total 109.0
Pace Projection +/- 4.4 Pace Projection +/- -2.0
Projected Starters Kyrie Irving Terry Rozier Jaylen Brown Jayson Tatum Al Horford Projected Starters Ben Simmons Jerryd Bayless J.J. Redick Robert Covington Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Opponent DRPM -0.47 -1.80 4.38 2.30 Opponent DRPM -2.16 -0.34 -0.10 N/A 1.59

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Gordon Hayward (Out)
Marcus Morris (Out)
Marcus Smart (Doubtful)
Jaylen Brown (Probable)

It’s been a rough start for the Celtics. They have lost their first two games, Gordon Hayward is out for the season, and now Marcus Smart is banged up. We are only two games into the season and we can already start to see their championship aspirations being pushed back a year. I’m not going to rule them out just yet, but they need to get back on track. Tonight they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in what should be a tremendous basketball game. The spread is set at a single point and the game features a total of 217 points.

Kyrie Irving is averaging 40.6 fantasy points through two games and yet it feels like he has underwhelmed. It’s only a matter of time before he breaks out and I’m banking on that to happen tonight. He leads the team in usage at 25% and that number is only going to go up with Marcus Smart expected to sit. Irving is going to be the big kid at recess that steals the lunch money from poor Jerryd Bayless. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate and I’m considering him in cash games as well depending on how my lineup construction shakes out.

Even if Terry Rozier doesn’t get the start at shooting guard, he should immediately step into a role where he is playing 30+ minutes. This is a favorable matchup for Boston and Rozier is cheap across the industry. Strictly from a lineup building standpoint, I’d rather use him at shooting guard, which sort of takes him out of consideration on FanDuel. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum has both played well to start the season, but their salaries have jumped up dramatically. Al Horford is a stat-stuffing center that almost always gets overlooked in DFS. The problem is that he is facing the GOAT himself, Joel Embiid.

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 120.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 108.0 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,600 $15,900 40.6 39.1 1.04 25.1%
Terry Rozier $4,600 $4,200 $8,400 33.0 23.2 1.42 19.7% -0.47
Jaylen Brown $6,200 $5,500 $10,900 31.9 33.9 0.94 22.9% -1.80
Jayson Tatum $6,500 $5,800 $11,500 26.2 36.5 0.72 13.5% 4.38
Al Horford $7,400 $6,800 $12,700 33.6 32.8 1.02 15.2% 2.30
Terry Rozier $4,600 $4,200 $8,400 33.0 23.2 1.42 19.7% N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Terry Rozier (DK & FDRFT)

Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier (FD), Jaylen Brown


Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Richaun Holmes (Out)

Coaches can be so frustrating. I don’t know if Brett Brown was trying to dupe the Wizards or what, but saying that Joel Embiid would only play 16 minutes was awfully specific. Regardless of how great Embiid is, we can’t roster a player whose ceiling is 16 minutes. Brown then decided to play Embiid 27 minutes, which apparently came as a surprise to Embiid himself. The worst part is that we will likely be dealing with these random minute restrictions all year. Rant over. The Sixers come into tonight’s game as a one point favorite against the Celtics with an implied total of 109 points. With all of the injuries to the C’s and with this game being played in Philadelphia, it should be a great spot to roster the Sixers.

Depending on where you look, Ben Simmons is either a point guard or a power forward. He may be the size of a power forward and he might matchup against the other team’s power forward, but he’s the Sixers’ point guard. After an impressive preseason, he came out of the gates firing against the Wizards. He played 34 minutes, finishing the game with 18 points, ten rebounds, and five assists. His price shot up across the industry, but his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet gives him a high floor and a high ceiling. I have a feeling that his salary is only going to go up from here, so target him at this price while you still can.

Jerryd Bayless and J.J. Redick both played significant minutes in the opener, but neither one is particularly involved in the offense. For now, I will be avoiding both in all formats. Robert Covington is one of the best defenders in the NBA, so the upside is always there with steals and blocks. He runs hot and cold with his shot though, which makes him fairly volatile in DFS. I’ll have some exposure to him in tournaments tonight, but there are safer options in cash games. I really hope the Sixers come out and say that Joel Embiid is going to play 25 or more minutes. If they do, I’m hopping on board. He is a per-minute production monster and he’s facing an undersized Celtics’ frontcourt that had one of the worst rebounding differentials in the NBA last season.

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.9 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (18 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Ben Simmons $7,700 $7,500 $13,800 45.5 34.7 1.31 21.3% -2.16
Jerryd Bayless $4,000 $4,000 $7,800 22.1 27.9 0.79 15.1% -0.34
J.J. Redick $4,700 $4,500 $8,800 21.4 32.4 0.66 13.4% -0.10
Robert Covington $6,800 $5,700 $11,200 42.9 29.1 1.47 22.5% N/A
Joel Embiid $8,300 $8,000 $14,700 37.1 27.0 1.37 25.2% 1.59
Dario Saric $5,100 $5,400 $10,600 12.6 22.7 0.56 10.3% N/A

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid (25+ minutes)

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (DK), Joel Embiid (less than 25 minutes)


Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Washington Wizards
Article Image Vegas Total 211.0 Article Image Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Implied Team Total 102.5 Implied Team Total 108.5
Pace Projection +/- 4.4 Pace Projection +/- -3.1
Projected Starters Reggie Jackson Avery Bradley Stanley Johnson Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Projected Starters John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Jason Smith Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Opponent DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 0.15 1.33 Opponent DRPM -2.98 -1.13 0.19 -0.53 1.37

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Reggie Bullock (Out)
Stanley Johnson (Questionable)

The Pistons picked up a win in their season opener and nearly gave me a heart attack in the process. After declaring my love for Andre Drummond, he picked up two quick fouls in the first quarter and his third in the second quarter. Luckily, he had a big second half to salvage some value. Detroit comes into tonight’s game as six point underdogs against the Wizards. I generally side with the home team being able to impose their style of play on the opponent, which could be good for the Pistons. If that’s the case, they should see a few extra possessions in this one.

In the opener, Reggie Jackson played 27 minutes and Ish Smith played 21 minutes. Jackson had a nice game, but will always be a risky option as long as Smith is in the fold. In a ten game slate, we want guaranteed 30+ minutes from our coveted point guard spots. Avery Bradley got into early foul trouble and ended up playing only 23 minutes. While he is a great on-ball defender, he has a narrative that he’s a one-way player. He’s very underrated on the offensive end of the floor, which leads to low ownership in DFS. I will be loading up on Bradley tonight at a bargain bin price across the industry. The Pistons will need his defense on John Wall and/or Bradley Beal, so don’t be surprised if Bradley plays 35 minutes in this one.

Stanley Johnson missed this morning’s shootaround and his status is still up in the air. If he’s forced to miss the game, bump up Bradley and Tobias Harris. If we’ve learned anything from Harris over the years, it’s that he’s going to show up when you don’t expect him to and he’s going to underwhelm when he’s the chalk. It’s funny, there are players like this in every DFS sport. I’ll have a little interest if Johnson is ruled out, but will be fading him otherwise. Andre Drummond had a monster 1.72 FP/min in the opener. He’s going to breakout this season as long as he can stay out of foul trouble and keep his free throw percentage at a respectable level. Stan Van Gundy is using him as facilitator this season and we all know Drummond’s block and rebound upside. I will continue to buy him at this price point, even in a difficult matchup against Marcin Gortat.

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 115.0 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 108.0 (7 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,500 $5,400 $10,600 34.0 27.2 1.25 21.2% -0.83
Avery Bradley $5,100 $5,400 $10,600 16.9 23.3 0.73 19.1% -0.94
Stanley Johnson $4,500 $3,700 $7,400 20.3 40.3 0.50 14.5% 0.03
Tobias Harris $6,800 $5,900 $11,600 42.5 34.1 1.25 23.5% 0.15
Andre Drummond $8,500 $7,600 $13,900 38.6 22.4 1.72 20.6% 1.33
Ish Smith $4,100 $4,100 $8,100 14.2 20.8 0.68 21.8% N/A

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley, Andre Drummond (DK)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (FD & FDRFT), Tobias Harris (DK)


Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

Markieff Morris (Out)
Jason Smith (Questionable)

Despite an ugly shooting performance from John Wall (10-for-28), the Wizards held on to beat the Sixers in their season opener. With everything that has happened to the Celtics, the Wizards could make some noise in the Eastern Conference if they can ride the momentum that carried them to a strong second half of the season a year ago. They come into tonight’s game as six point favorites with an implied total of 108.5 points. The fact that their total is this high against a stout Pistons’ defense is eye-opening. This is a much better spot for Washington than most will realize.

John Wall was close to a monster fantasy performance against the Sixers, he just couldn’t seem to buy a basket. I’m more than willing to overlook a poor shooting performance, especially when he still managed to score 50 fantasy points. The key statistic from that first game was his 35.7% usage rate. Much like Kyrie Irving, I expect Wall’s ownership to be a lot lower than it should be tonight. I will be investing heavily in tournaments and see him as cash viable on DraftKings ($9,800). Bradley Beal is extremely talented, but until he can prove that his peripheral stats (rebounds, assists, blocks, steals) are here to stay, I have a hard time paying this price for him. It doesn’t help that he should matchup against Avery Bradley, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball.

Markieff Morris is out for the foreseeable future and his backup, Jason Smith, is listed as a game-time decision. Otto Porter is going to see all of the minutes that he can handle here, especially if Smith ends up sitting out. Porter is a player that I try to target when he’s at home and when he’s priced under $6,000. He checks both of those boxes tonight. Kelly Oubre may step into the starting lineup tonight and after scoring 39 fantasy points in the opener, people will gravitate to him. At this price, I’m going to be underweight compared to the field. If Oubre is the player that burns me in a ten game slate, so be it. Marcin Gortat is very intriguing tonight on DraftKings at a price of $5,600. The Wizards’ frontcourt is thin and they’ll need him to play 30+ minutes against Andre Drummond. I expect a lot of pick and roll action from Wall and Gortat, so pairing those two makes some sense tonight.

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 90.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 90.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (23 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
John Wall $10,500 $9,800 $18,200 50.0 37.2 1.34 35.7% -2.98
Bradley Beal $7,800 $7,100 $13,300 48.2 35.6 1.35 27.3% -1.13
Otto Porter $5,900 $5,500 $10,900 31.6 33.2 0.95 12.7% 0.19
Jason Smith $3,600 $4,100 $8,100 1.2 7.1 0.17 5.4% -0.53
Marcin Gortat $6,100 $5,600 $11,200 45.9 34.4 1.33 15.2% 1.37
Kelly Oubre $5,300 $4,400 $8,700 38.6 32.5 1.19 14.1% N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall (GPP), Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (Cash), Kelly Oubre, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat (FD & FDRFT)


Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Charlotte Hornets
Article Image Vegas Total 202.0 Article Image Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Implied Team Total 98.5 Implied Team Total 103.5
Pace Projection +/- -3.1 Pace Projection +/- -2.7
Projected Starters Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Taurean Prince Ersan Ilyasova Dewayne Dedmon Projected Starters Kemba Walker Jeremy Lamb Dwayne Bacon Marvin Williams Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Opponent DRPM -1.14 -0.88 -0.13 2.92 Opponent DRPM -2.53 -1.09 2.66 0.63 4.86

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

None

I was thoroughly impressed with the Hawks on Wednesday night. Despite a lot of turnover on their roster, they went into Dallas and beat the Mavericks. Maybe this team is better than I gave them credit for. As I often mention, a strong coach and a good system in place can do wonders for teams that aren’t quite as talented. The Hawks are only five point underdogs tonight against the Hornets, which seems a bit low, but again, maybe I’m wrong on Atlanta. The issue with this game is the pace. Both teams are expected to rank in the bottom half in pace of play and that’s evidenced in the 202 point total for tonight’s game.

I’m starting to think that I was a year too early on my Dennis Schroder breakout season call. With Paul Millsap in Denver, this is clearly Schroder’s team now. He played very well in the opener, scoring 45 fantasy points in 34 minutes of action. I’ve already mentioned a handful of point guards that I love tonight and we aren’t even halfway through the games. Tough decisions have to be made at point guard tonight. Schroder is certainly viable in tournaments, but I’m going to lean on players in better game environments.

Outside of Schroder in tournaments, I’m not seeing a lot that I like here. The Hawks’ rotation was 12 players deep in the first half against the Mavericks. Schroder was the only player that saw more than 26 minutes of action, which is something to monitor moving forward. I’m a big fan of Taurean Prince this season, but I’d like to see him play 30+ minutes on a consistent basis before targeting him as a core play in DFS.

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (23 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Dennis Schroder $8,100 $7,600 $14,000 44.9 34.3 1.31 35.0% -1.14
Kent Bazemore $4,800 $5,000 $9,800 18.3 26.6 0.69 12.3% -0.88
Taurean Prince $4,800 $5,000 $9,800 25.5 25.9 0.98 17.8%
Ersan Ilyasova $5,000 $4,500 $8,800 19.2 23.8 0.81 8.4% -0.13
Dewayne Dedmon $5,000 $4,700 $9,200 23.9 25.6 0.93 13.0% 2.92

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP)


Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Nicolas Batum (Out)
Cody Zeller (Out)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out)
Michael Carter-Williams (Out)

The Hornets are extremely banged up to start the season. While that’s bad for their ability to win basketball games, it’s great for the fantasy production of the healthy players. The Hawks aren’t exactly a great matchup for fantasy production, but they are far from a shut-down defense. They allowed 111 points to the Mavericks in their opener. When teams are playing short-handed, we can throw out low implied totals because the rotation is condensed and the offense is more concentrated.

There are too many point guard options in play tonight. Kemba Walker is in a dream spot tonight. He’s had good splits at home throughout his career, his usage rate sees a bump with Nicolas Batum out, and he draws one of the best individual matchups in the slate. Dennis Schroder had a DRPM of -2.53 last season, which is one of the worst in the entire league. After a mediocre outing on Wednesday, Walker’s ownership will naturally be lower than it should. This is definitely shaping up to be a three point guard night on DraftKings. I will take all of the Walker shares that I can get my hands on.

Jeremy Lamb has played very well in spot starts over the last two seasons, but didn’t have that high minute ceiling that we were hoping for on Wednesday. He was still productive, but only played 28 minutes. With the salary bump, he’s more of a secondary play in tonight’s slate. With Cody Zeller out, Frank Kaminsky could see minutes in the upper 20s tonight. He’s not a core play by any means, but he’s cheap and deserves a look in tournaments. I’m a big fan of Dwight Howard salary at the moment, but not of his matchup. Dewayne Dedmon is one of the best low post defenders in the NBA. Last season, Dedmon had a DRPM of 4.86, which only trailed Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (20 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game Minutes FP/Min Usage % Opp. DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,000 $7,800 $14,400 33.2 35.4 0.94 23.4% -2.53
Jeremy Lamb $5,500 $5,700 $11,200 23.8 28.4 0.84 20.6% -1.09
Dwayne Bacon $3,500 $3,200 $6,300 11.4 20.5 0.56 13.4% 2.66
Marvin Williams $5,000 $4,400 $8,700 9.4 26.7 0.35 9.1% 0.63
Dwight Howard $7,400 $6,700 $12,600 35.5 31.5 1.13 13.4% 4.86
Frank Kaminsky $4,100 $4,300 $8,500 11.8 23.2 0.51 18.7% N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb, Frank Kaminsky


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious