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NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-15 22:07:50

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Toronto Raptors Indiana Pacers
torontonba Vegas Total 202.0 indiananba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 96.10 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Terrence Ross Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 4 29 5 16 19 Opp. Season 3 20 8 12 14
Opp. Last 7 29 30 5 21 29 Opp. Last 7 1 22 11 6 6

Toronto Raptors

Record: 16-9 — Road: 8-5 — Last 10: 7-3

The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and are now 16-9 on the season. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in what should be a competitive game between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are projected to score 98.5 points tonight, which is slight below their average points per game this season.

On paper, this is not a great matchup, but it’s not one that we necessarily have to avoid. The Pacers have been slightly above-average defensively, ranking between ninth and 13 in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The good news is that this should be a pace-up game for the Raptors, as the Pacers average nearly four possessions more per game this season.

Elite Plays

DeMar DeRozan

DeRozan is coming off of a strong five game stretch, where he averaged 34.1 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against Monta Ellis and the Pacers, who are ranked 29th against shooting guards this season.

FD — $7,600 — SG
DK — $7,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 35.6
FP/Game — Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 34.1

Secondary Plays

Kyle Lowry

Lowry has two things working against him tonight – a tough matchup and an elevated price tag. Lowry is always in play for tournaments, but there are better plays dollar for dollar at the point guard position.

FD — $9,000 — PG
DK — $8,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 23.7
Min/Game — Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 39.8 | Last Five Games: 40.6

Terrence Ross

With DeMarre Carroll out, Ross has averaged 31.5 minutes per game in his four starts. Carroll traveled with the Raptors for their road trip, but is not expected to play. Ross is a decent punt play at a price under $4,000.

FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $3,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.4 | Last Five Games: 10.5
Min/Game — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 27.6
FP/Game — Season: 10.9 | Last Five Games: 15.2

Luis Scola

Scola continues to thrive in Jonas Valanciunas absence. He is coming off of a big game last night and he has the revenge narrative in his favor, as he is facing his former team.

FD — $4,300 — PF
DK — $4,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 25.5
FP/Game — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 21.1

Patrick Patterson

The production hasn’t been there recently, but Patterson has averaged over 30 minutes per game in his last five. He is by no means a must start tonight, but he is a quality punt play at power forward.

FD — $3,700 — PF
DK — $4,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.9 | Last Five Games: 7.8
Min/Game — Season: 22.7 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 13.4 | Last Five Games: 16.0

Indiana Pacers

Record: 13-9 — Home: 7-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive 7-3 record at home this season. Tonight they host the visiting Raptors. The Pacers are listed as 5-point favorites tonight with the total for the game set at 202 points. The Pacers have an implied team total of 103.5 points, which is the fourth highest on the board.

The Raptors have played great on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the tough matchup on paper, Vegas still expects the Pacers to score a lot of points tonight at home.

Elite Plays

Paul George

George’s production has been down over his last five games, but luckily that has resulted in a lower price. He draws a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Raptors, who will likely be without their best perimeter defender in DeMarre Carroll.

FD — $9,800 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 27.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 43.2 | Last Five Games: 40.1

Secondary Plays

NONE

Los Angeles Clippers at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Detroit Pistons
laclippersnba Vegas Total 202.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 202.5
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 99.20 Team Pace 98.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 5 12 3 19 10 Opp. Season 12 13 15 6 18
Opp. Last 7 12 4 11 17 14 Opp. Last 7 21 16 16 12 16

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 14-10 — Road: 5-5 — Last 10: 7-3

The Clippers are coming off of their best ten game stretch of the season, winning seven games. They are still only 5-5 on the road though. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons. This will likely be a pace-down game for the Clippers, who are projected to score 102 points tonight.

Vegas doesn’t seem overly concerned with this matchup, but the Pistons have an underrated defense. On the season, they are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. If you look at the DvP table above, the Pistons are ranked 12th or better against point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and centers this season.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

Griffin is by far the top play on the Clippers tonight. His price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a terrific matchup against Ersan Ilyasova. Griffin should be able to get whatever he wants at the rim tonight.

FD — $9,300 — PF
DK — $9,100 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 24.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 35.0
FP/Game — Season: 42.0 | Last Five Games: 41.1

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan has played well over his last five games, averaging 36.3 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He is a rebounding machine and even though the matchup against Andre Drummond is less than ideal, he may see a minutes boost to make up for it.

FD — $7,600 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 10.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 36.3

Detroit Pistons

Record: 14-11 — Home: 9-3 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and have improved to 9-3 at home for the season. Tonight they host the Clippers in what is expected to be a close game. The Pistons are listed as 1.5-point favorites. They have an implied team total of 100.5 points, which is slightly higher than their average points scored this season.

The biggest surprise with the Clippers this season has been their inability to rebound the basketball. They have the fifth worst rebounding differential in the NBA. The rest of their defensive statistics are mediocre, as they are ranked 15th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

My favorite times to target Drummond are when he is facing a bad rebounding team and when the opposing center rarely strays far from the basket. Drummond has both of those in his favor tonight against DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers.

FD — $9,100 — C
DK — $9,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 29.1
FP/Game — Season: 43.3 | Last Five Games: 37.4

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

There are quite a few options at point guard tonight, which takes Jackson out of cash game consideration. However, he always has that 45-50 fantasy point upside, making him an intriguing, low-owned tournament play.

FD — $7,400 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 26.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 28.7

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Caldwell-Pope is coming off of his best game of the season. He almost put up a 50-burger against the Pacers. KCP is a decent cash game option tonight, as he should see between 35-38 minutes of action.

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.2 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 30.3

Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic Brooklyn Nets
orlandonba Vegas Total 198.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 98.40 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 27 26 22 7 23 Opp. Season 19 7 17 13 22
Opp. Last 7 20 28 3 23 15 Opp. Last 7 5 21 24 14 18

Orlando Magic

Record: 12-11 — Road: 5-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games and are now 12-11 on the season. I bet if you asked a casual NBA fan what their record was, very few would know that they are above .500 this season. The Magic are 2.5-point favorites tonight against the Nets in Brooklyn. Orlando has an implied team total of 100.3 points, which is right around their average points scored this season.

The Magic draw one of the most favorable matchups on the schedule tonight. The Nets are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. There is one injury situation that we need to monitor tonight. Tobias Harris is questionable with a lower leg contusion. If he is unable to play, give a small boost to both Victor Oladipo and Andrew Nicholson.

Elite Plays

Elfrid Payton

We need to give Payton a break for his bad outing against the Cavaliers. Their entire team was awful that night and he only ended up playing 20 minutes. He had scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of the previous four games.

FD — $6,700 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 22.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 32.0

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

Brook Lopez has never been known for his play on the defensive end of the floor. Vucevic deserves strong consideration tonight, especially on DraftKings. His minutes appear to be trending upward, as he has played at least 32 in five of his last seven games.

FD — $7,300 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 19.3
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 31.8

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 7-16 — Home: 6-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Nets may not be a great basketball team, but they are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They don’t play a ton of defense and they don’t mind pushing the tempo every now and then. The Nets are listed as 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Magic.

The Magic have been better than advertised on defense, ranking 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Vegas doesn’t seem too worried about the matchup though, as the Nets’ implied team total is higher than their average points scored this season.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

Lopez has been one of the most consistent centers in the NBA this season. If you take out the game against the Sixers, he has basically been a lock for 30+ fantasy points. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Nikola Vucevic.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 19.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

Young is a borderline elite play tonight at home, but his price has caught up to his production. He is now at or above $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Young is in play, but is by no means a must play.

FD — $7,000 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 20.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 34.1

Jarrett Jack

This pick hinges on the availability of Shane Larkin. If Larkin is unable to suit up, Jack could see upwards of 35 minutes tonight.

FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 24.3

Bojan Bogdanovic

Bogdanovic is much cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. He has filled in nicely as a starter, averaging 21.2 fantasy points in 29.7 minutes per game in his last five outings.

FD — $3,900 — SF
DK — $4,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.1 | Last Five Games: 13.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 21.2

Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Chicago Bulls
philadelphianba Vegas Total 194.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 90.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 99.20 Team Pace 99.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Wroten Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Jerami Grant Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 23 8 21 14 25 Opp. Season 15 4 30 29 24
Opp. Last 7 14 6 7 28 21 Opp. Last 7 17 5 13 29 24

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 1-24 — Road: 0-14 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers are now 1-24 on the season. It’s a good thing they picked up that win against the Lakers. Can you imagine how much pressure would be on them if they were 0-25? That 25th loss will likely come tonight against the Bulls. The Sixers are 13-point underdogs in this matchup and they have the second lowest team total on the board.

The Bulls have really improved on the defensive end of the floor. Even though they play at a fast pace, they are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout, as the Sixers are the largest underdogs on the schedule. With nine other games to choose from tonight, we can safely avoid the Sixers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Chicago Bulls

Record: 13-8 — Home: 9-3 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have only won five of their last ten games, but it’s safe to pencil them in for a win tonight. They are 9-3 at home and they are facing the NBA’s worst team, who just so happens to be playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Bulls are projected to score 103.5 points tonight, which is 5.4 points higher than their average points scored this season.

If we could be assured that the Sixers will keep tonight’s game close, this would arguably be the best matchup on the board. The Sixers are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The problem is that this game could easily be over by halftime. The Bulls are certainly in play tonight, but they do have some inherent risk attached to them.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

This is a game that Gasol should dominate on both ends of the floor. The problem is that I always have a hard time paying a premium for a player in a potential blowout. I see Gasol more as a tournament play tonight.

FD — $8,500 — PF
DK — $7,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 36.2 | Last Five Games: 40.1

Jimmy Butler

Butler is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but he is sitting at a very playable price on DraftKings. He has averaged 35.4 fantasy points per game in his last five, but there is the concern that his minutes may be limited tonight.

FD — $8,300 — SG
DK — $7,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 37.2 | Last Five Games: 37.7
FP/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 35.4

Joakim Noah

Noah has played well over his last five games, averaging 25.2 fantasy points per contest. While I generally don’t like to pay $5,000 for a player that doesn’t see more than 23 minutes per game, Noah could actually see a minutes boost tonight in the potential blowout.

FD — $5,000 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.5 | Last Five Games: 11.3
Min/Game — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 22.7
FP/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 25.2

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Atlanta Hawks
miaminba Vegas Total 191.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 191.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 18 17 19 15 20 Opp. Season 2 3 26 3 9
Opp. Last 7 23 3 30 13 3 Opp. Last 7 10 24 26 8 9

Miami Heat

Record: 13-9 — Road: 2-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Heat are only 5-5 in their last ten games and they have a disappointing 2-5 record on the road. They are also playing in the second half of a back-to-back. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat put up a dud tonight against the Hawks in Atlanta. They are currently listed as 5.5-point underdogs with a very low team total of 92.8 points.

The Hawks haven’t been great defensively this season. They are ranked 12th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. While the matchup may not look bad on paper, the Heat have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight. With a full slate of games, I will likely be fading the Heat altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 14-11 — Home: 8-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, losing five of their last ten. They do have a nice 8-5 record at home though, and they catch the Heat in a vulnerable spot tonight. The Hawks are sizable favorites tonight in a game that features a low total of 191 points.

The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This is not a great spot to target the Hawks, as the Heat are ranked ninth or better against point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and centers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap isn’t my favorite play dollar for dollar, but he is worth mentioning thanks to his incredibly high floor. He is a player that we can generally count on for 30 fantasy points, even in his bad outings. He is a secondary play tonight against the Heat.

FD — $8,400 — PF
DK — $7,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.3
FP/Game — Season: 38.5 | Last Five Games: 35.7

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious