NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-12-19 03:07:16

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Welcome back to Monday’s edition of the NBA Grind Down. In the spirit of the holidays, I decided to write today’s article with a Christmas theme. I did this last season for Thanksgiving and a lot of people seemed to enjoy it, so I’ll try it again this year for Christmas. If you aren’t a fan of the Christmas fluff, have no fear — just scroll down to the game breakdown.

New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		6.0					Vegas Spread		-6.0
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		106.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	24	18	23	11	4		DvP	28	15	6	6	2
DRPM Rat.	18	7	5	16	7		DRPM Rat.	14	21	20	19	22

New York Knicks

The Knicks have won six of their last ten games and currently sit three games above .500 on the season. In this Christmas edition of the Grind Down, the Knicks are much like my next door neighbor. The neighbor in question does some good by decorating his house with lights (trading away Carmelo Anthony), but makes some questionable calls like sweeping his driveway for hours, even after he already shoveled the snow (signing Tim Hardaway to a $71 million contract after finally shedding some bad contracts). The Knicks draw a fairly difficult matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked 11th in defensive efficiency. New York has an implied total of 100.5 points, which is one of the lowest on the board and 4.3 points below their season average.

We have to treat each slate individually and given the fact that there are at least ten value plays that stand out, we shouldn’t settle for decent point-per-dollar options. This takes Jarrett Jack, Frank Ntilikina, and Courtney Lee out of consideration. The situation to monitor in this game is the availability of Kristaps Porzingis. If he is unable to suit up, Michael Beasley would draw another start at power forward. In 37 minutes against the Thunder, Beasley scored 46 fantasy points and single-handedly ruined Carmelo Anthony return to New York. Enes Kanter and Kyle O’Quinn would also see a boost if Porzingis is unable to suit up, but there isn’t a ton of fantasy appeal in this game as a whole.

Notable Injuries

Kristaps Porzingis (Questionable)

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.8 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (15 of 20)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Michael Beasley (DK – if Porzingis is out)

Secondary Plays – Michael Beasley (FD – if Porzingis is out)

Charlotte Hornets

It didn’t take long to come up with a comparison for the Hornets. With a record of 2-11 on the road, they are clearly the family members that clearly travel well. Don’t get me wrong, I love seeing everyone in my extended family around the holidays, but I don’t need to hear about how long the flight took, how annoying the uber driver was, how sore your back is from the bed, or how much you miss your seven cats. Luckily, the Hornets are playing at home tonight. They draw an exploitable matchup against the Knicks, who have a mediocre defense and could be without their anchor, Kristaps Porzingis. Charlotte has an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and 2.5 points above their season average.

Kemba Walker hasn’t shown his upside over the last four games, but he has scored at least 28 fantasy points and has played at least 33 minutes in every game during that stretch. He has good splits at home throughout his career and a favorable matchup to boot — the Knicks are ranked 29th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against point guards. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are both playing major minutes right now, but shooting guard and small forward are two positions that are loaded with value plays. Dwight Howard’s game log is quite volatile. He’s like the aunt that is the life of the party one minute and then crying the next. We should only look to target Howard in tournaments given his low floor and high ceiling.

Notable Injuries

None

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 104.0 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (6 of 20)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (FD), Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Dwight Howard (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		206.0					Vegas Total		206.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		104.5					Implied Team Total		101.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	12	4	22	29		DvP	1	3	10	7	12
DRPM Rat.	8	1	28	6	10		DRPM Rat.	21	1	2	2	1

Boston Celtics

The Celtics remind me of Ebenezer Scrooge. It’s not that they go around saying “bah humbug,” but they have wildly exceeded all expectations. After losing Gordon Hayward for the year, they could have easily wrote off their season and looked forward to the future. As Tiny Tim in the Christmas Carol can attest, we shouldn’t always make assumptions about people. Much like Scrooge, the Celtics have been a pleasant surprise this season. On a related note, I’m 99% positive that Danny Ainge has been visited by the ghosts of free agency’s past, present, and future. The Celtics have one of the best matchups on the schedule tonight, as they take on a Pacers’ team that is ranked 11th in pace of play and 21st in points allowed per game.

Kyrie Irving has an elite true usage rate (29%) and comes into tonight’s game in good form, averaging 42 fantasy points over his last four games. Darren Collison is an above-average defender, but the Pacers struggle to defend point guards as a team (20th in DvP). Irving has some tournament appeal, especially if we expect his ownership to be low. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are having excellent seasons, but both seem a bit overpriced in a ten game slate. The best way to attack the Pacers this season has been in the frontcourt. Indiana is ranked below the league average in rebounding differential and are ranked 27th and 28th in efficiency against power forwards and centers, respectively. Al Horford is an excellent option on DraftKings at a price under $7,000.

Notable Injuries

None

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.6 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (7 of 20)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Al Horford (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Al Horford (DK Cash)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Pistons for the fourth best record in the Eastern Conference. Nothing came to mind with the Pacers and Christmas, so they can be the hot chocolate and/or coffee (any hot beverage will do). Hot cocoa is underrated during the holidays, especially if you are spending more than a few minutes at a time outside. The Pacers are underrated when it comes to fantasy basketball, as their players tend to have low ownership even in favorable matchups. Unfortunately, this is not a spot where we should be loading on up on the Pacers. The Celtics are currently ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Pacers’ implied total is nearly seven points below their season average.

Despite the slow pace of the game and the poor matchup, there are still two Pacers’ players on my radar in tournaments. The first is Victor Oladipo, who is averaging 40 minutes and 48 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s been fairly matchup-proof up to this point and leads the team with a true usage rate of 27%. Oladipo should have low ownership in tournaments and a price of only $8,700 on DraftKings. If he’s able to suit up, Myles Turner is also viable on DraftKings at a price of $6,200. His minutes and fantasy production are both trending upward over his last five games. If Turner is ruled out, Thaddeus Young and Domantas Sabonis would both become viable fantasy options. Think of the matchup against the Celtics as a brutal snowstorm and the Pacers’ players as some spiked coffee (just add a little Baileys).

Notable Injuries

Myles Turner (Questionable)

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.2 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -6.7 (19 of 20)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.7 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK GPP), Myles Turner (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Myles Turner (DK Cash)

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		203.5					Vegas Total		203.5
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		100.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-2.1
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	Jordan Mickey	Kelly Olynyk		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Tyler Cavanaugh
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	26	26	25	26		DvP	10	9	11	16	3
DRPM Rat.	30	2	20	9	22		DRPM Rat.	21	25	5	22	16

Miami Heat

The Heat have battled the injury bug all season. They are already expected to be without three of their key players and there’s a chance that Dion Waiters and/or Goran Dragic will join them. The Heat are much like my Christmas tree — half of the lights are out. I’ve gone through two or three artificial trees in the last five years that have the lights built in. Every year I pull it out and cross my fingers that all of the lights work and every year I am disappointed. I’ve tried to buy the little light gun that tells you which light bulb is out, but to no avail. I’m convinced that these trees have it out for me. After a large portion of this year’s tree went out, I simply rotated that part of the tree to face the corner. Even after all of my light problems, I have no interest in a real tree. I have much respect for those of you that go out and get a real tree each year (especially if you cut it down yourself), but that’s not for me. I’ll take the convenience of a fake tree any day. If it’s the smell of a real tree that you are missing, I hear there are air fresheners that you can clip to the branches of the artificial trees.

The half-lit Heat draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The lights that are still working need to shine extra bright, as they’ll need to make up for the production of the unlit bulbs. We have to take a wait and see approach with the backcourt, as we still don’t know if Dragic or Waiters are going to play. If one is out, the other becomes an excellent fantasy option. If they are both out, Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington would become elite plays in all formats. Either way, Josh Richardson should play 35+ minutes in a nice matchup against a Hawks’ defense that is ranked 30th in efficiency against small forwards.

With Hassan Whiteside and James Johnson both out, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and Jordan Mickey will see a lot of minutes in the frontcourt. Olynyk has the most upside of the three, as he should see the most minutes and has shown 40+ fantasy point upside this season. Olynyk is an excellent tournament play, especially on DraftKings ($5,000). Even if Mickey draws the start, Adebayo is going to be the preferred target for fantasy production. He’s a great rebounder and an elite shot blocker, which bodes well in a matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Out)
James Johnson (Out)
Justise Winslow (Doubtful)
Dion Waiters (Questionable)
Goran Dragic (Questionable)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (5 of 20)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk (DK), Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington (if Dragic and Waiters are out)

Secondary Plays – Kelly Olynyk (FD), Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters (if active)

Atlanta Hawks

How many office Christmas parties have you been to over the years? How many of them did you enjoy? It’s probably close to the same winning percentage that the Hawks have this season (21%). Most of them are disappointing. You show up and have to make small talk with Bill from accounting and Susan from human resources. You eat some food that looks better than it tastes, you drink your two beers (because they only give you two drink tickets), and you wait around for the raffle where the grand prize is an iPod Nano. However, every once in a while you show up to an office party and pick up a win. Maybe they have casino night, maybe they have an open bar, and maybe you win that iPod Nano that you’ve had your eyes on.

The Hawks come into tonight’s game as only three point underdogs against a short-handed Heat team. While Miami has been stout defensively this season, we can throw those numbers out the window. They are going to be without at least three of their best defenders. The issue with the Hawks is that they seem a bit overpriced in a ten game slate that is loaded with value plays. Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, and Taurean Prince all have decent matchups, but there are cheaper options at their respective positions that have just as much upside. I’m expecting a boring office party from the Hawks tonight, so I will not be in attendance.

Notable Injuries

Mike Muscala (Out)

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (19 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (12 of 20)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		102.3					Implied Team Total		113.3
			Pace Projection +/-		2.1					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Joe Johnson	Ekpe Udoh		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	13	25	8	16		DvP	15	1	14	5	7
DRPM Rat.	3	11	8	27	5		DRPM Rat.	5	19	11	5	5

Utah Jazz

The Jazz can’t seem to catch a break right now. After losing Gordon Hayward in the offseason, they have struggled to stay healthy this season. After Rudy Gobert was finally back to playing a full complement of minutes, he hurt his knee against the Celtics and is expected to miss another month of action. The Jazz might end up being a story of what could have been. I am a big Jazz fan, so perhaps I am akin to the girl that is hoping that her boyfriend will propose on Christmas. I had my hopes up this season, but they were quickly dashed. The little small box that could have contained an engagement ring turned out to be an iPod Nano that he won at his Christmas party.

This game has the highest the largest spread on the schedule and has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Rockets have one of the best offenses in basketball and also have an underrated defense — seventh in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential. The question that we have to ask is whether the risk of a potential reward justifies playing the short-handed Jazz. In these situations, I’m more willing to play the cheaper players in cash games and the more expensive players in tournaments. Donovan Mitchell should lead the team in usage and he has 35+ minute upside if the game stays close. He makes for an elite tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In cash games, there are safer targets at shooting guard.

Ricky Rubio and Joe Ingles grade out as decent point-per-dollar targets, but as I’ve mentioned a few times already, this slate is filled with great value plays. Joe Johnson is close to minimum salary across the industry and played 29 minutes the other night against the Cavaliers. With Derrick Favors and Gobert both out, he should see close to 30 minutes again tonight. Ekpe Udoh had one of the best games of his career the other night, scoring 49 fantasy points in a spot start. He’s one of the top value plays at any position tonight on DraftKings. Jonas Jerebko is also worth a look off the bench, as his ownership will be suppressed after putting up a dud against Cleveland.

Notable Injuries

Rudy Gobert (Out)
Derrick Favors (Out)
Raul Neto (Out)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 103.0 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (9 of 20)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.7 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell (GPP), Ekpe Udoh

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell (Cash), Ricky Rubio, Joe Ingles, Joe Johnson, Jonas Jerebko (GPP)

Houston Rockets

Amazon has taken over the world and don’t get me wrong, I am not complaining. I can procrastinate buying gifts all I want and still have guaranteed two-day delivery this holiday season. I can look at reviews, compare prices, and I don’t have to put pants on. The Rockets are essentially the Amazon of the NBA. They are outperforming the big stores that have been running things for years (Spurs, Warriors, Cavaliers) and sending mom and pop shops to the lottery (Kings, Grizzlies, Mavericks). Houston has been extremely efficient on both ends of the floor and their style of play is the way of the future. They draw a difficult matchup on paper against the Jazz, but Utah will be without Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors. The Rockets have the highest implied total on the board at 113.3 points.

Chris Paul has been on a tear since coming back from injury, averaging 53 fantasy points over his last four games. In fact, he is averaging one more fantasy point per game than James Harden is during that stretch. Paul is significantly cheaper than Harden, especially on DraftKings. Paul is viable in all formats, while Harden is more of a tournament play. This certainly sets up as a stars and scrubs type of slate, which enhances the appeal of Harden on a site like FanDuel where we have to roster two shooting guards. Trevor Ariza grades out as a decent value on DraftKings ($4,800), but with the multi-position eligibility, we can find better plays in a slate this size. Clint Capela is shaping up to be a game-time decision tonight. If he is unable to suit up, Nene Hilario would become another value play that we can add to the list of potential targets.

Notable Injuries

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 115.1 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (1 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (11 of 20)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Chris Paul (DK)

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (FD), James Harden (GPP), Trevor Ariza (DK)

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		103.3					Implied Team Total		108.3
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-0.1
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Torrey Craig	Wilson Chandler	Nikola Jokic		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Dakari Johnson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	5	7	9	15		DvP	26	2	9	28	10
DRPM Rat.	4	1	1	17	8		DRPM Rat.	25	3	8	23	3

Denver Nuggets

We took my two-year old son to one of those drive-through light shows last weekend. If you aren’t familiar with them, you basically pay an outrageous fee to drive two miles per hour through a bunch of different Christmas lights. The idea of it always sounds great and during the first ten minutes, we were having a blast. My son had his head out of the sunroof, he was dancing, and he couldn’t believe how many lights there were (he kept saying, “wow, wights!”). Unfortunately, that quickly wore off and he got bored. He was also sick and it was getting late. We spent the next half hour stuck behind a line of cars with a screaming toddler and no way out. The Nuggets are similar to the light show in that the idea of playing them sounds great, but it tends to lead to more frustration than anything else. They have a deep and inconsistent rotation and have been involved in too many blowouts, which has led to a lot of frustrating nights of fantasy basketball.

The Nuggets draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Nuggets’ implied total of 103.3 points is nearly five points below their season average, so we can downgrade their offense as a whole. Trying to predict the point guard rotation for Denver has been tough this season, but that shouldn’t be an issue tonight. Emmanuel Mudiay is not expected to play, which opens the door for Jamal Murray to play 35 minutes. The matchup isn’t great, but I have interest in Murray in both cash games and tournaments. Mudiay’s absence could also result in a few extra minutes for Will Barton and Gary Harris. They don’t have the best matchups against Andre Roberson and Paul George, but both are worth a look in tournaments. With Nikola Jokic back in the mix, the Nuggets’ frontcourt should be avoided. There are too many bodies splitting minutes right now.

Notable Injuries

Emmanuel Mudiay (Doubtful)

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.9 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (17 of 20)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jamal Murray, Will Barton (GPP), Gary Harris (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Will Barton (Cash), Gary Harris (Cash)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell the Red-Nosed Westbrook has a nice ring to it. No matter the weather, he is the light that will guide Oklahoma City’s sled. Whether you put Dasher (Paul George) or Dancer (Carmelo Anthony) or any of the other reindeer behind him, it doesn’t really matter as long as the Red-Nosed Westbrook is leading the way. The Thunder draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City has an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the third highest of the 20 teams in action tonight.

Westbrook is clearly the top point guard to target tonight and he’s arguably the top play at any position. He has an elite true usage rate, he fills up all areas of the stat sheet, and he has one of the best matchups a point guard could ask for. On the season, the Nuggets are ranked 27th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. He’ll likely draw the defense of Gary Harris, but I’m not overly concerned. Westbrook is matchup-proof and he should benefit from the uptempo game environment.

Paul George has not played well since returning from injury, but his price has come down to playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Carmelo Anthony spent many years in Denver and may have a little revenge narrative brewing in his mind. Anthony doesn’t fill the stat sheet like Westbrook and George, but he may have the best individual matchup. Wilson Chandler has a low defensive real plus-minus grade this season and as a team, the Nuggets are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. With Steven Adams out tonight, the Thunder will employ a number of smaller lineups. George and Anthony could both end up playing 35+ minutes against the Nuggets.

Notable Injuries

Steven Adams (Out)

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 102.1 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 6.2 (2 of 20)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Carmelo Anthony (Cash)

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