NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 8th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Malcolm Brogdon | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 30 | DvP | 13 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 27 | 28 | 3 | 3 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Happy, happy, happy Monday everyone!
We kick off tonight’s eight-game slate with the Bucks and Pacers in what should be a close, high-scoring game. The total is set at a healthy 214 points and we have a 1.5-point spread. The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and draw a nice matchup against a Pacers’ defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game and rebounding differential. Milwaukee has an implied total of 106.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Eric Bledsoe has played well over the last few weeks, but the mid-range is loaded at point guard tonight. Bledsoe doesn’t even crack my top ten list when it comes to the best point-per-dollar plays at his position. Keep an eye out for Milwaukee’s starting lineup. After losing to the Raptors, Jason Kidd decided to start Malcolm Brogdon against the Wizards. Brogdon has quietly scored at least 22 fantasy points in seven straight games and could see a few extra minutes if he draws another start at shooting guard.
Khris Middleton is almost always on my radar for cash games. He provides a high floor and he plays nearly as many minutes as anyone in the NBA. Wings have had plenty of success against the Pacers this season and Middleton’s price is under $7,000 on DraftKings for the first time in a while. Giannis Antetokounmpo is my preferred target if spending all the way up at small forward. LeBron James will have to deal with Jimmy Butler, while Giannis will draw matchups against Bojan Bogdanovic and Thaddeus Young. He has been quiet recently, but this is a blowup spot for the Greek Freak.
Notable Injuries
None
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (11 of 16)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 33.7 | -3.3 | 31.2 | -1.5 | 1.08 | 24.3% | 7 | 15 | 20 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 23.8 | 0.6 | 30.4 | 0.3 | 0.78 | 18.4% | 12 | 9 | 1 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,400 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 34.7 | -2.8 | 37.3 | -0.4 | 0.93 | 22.1% | 7 | 6 | 29 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,100 | $10,900 | $19,500 | 54.7 | -3.3 | 37.9 | -0.9 | 1.44 | 28.3% | 27 | 17 | 11 |
| John Henson | $5,500 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 23.1 | 2.1 | 24.3 | 2.0 | 0.95 | 13.0% | 29 | 30 | 11 |
| Thon Maker | $3,700 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 13.5 | 5.1 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 0.73 | 11.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (DK)
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (FD), Malcolm Brogdon (if starting)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have lost six of their last ten games and have been involved in four straight blowouts. If you are wondering why the starters’ minutes are all down, now you know. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. The only drawback is that Milwaukee plays at a very slow pace. Indiana has an implied total of 107.8 points, which is a half point higher than their season average.
With Victor Oladipo back in the lineup, we can safely avoid the likes of Darren Collison, Lance Stephenson, and Cory Joseph. All three are priced up and will resume their normal roles with Oladipo back in the mix. As for Oladipo himself, he played terrific in his first game back, scoring 58 fantasy points in only 23 minutes of action. He’s not expected to be on a minute restriction tonight. While his price seems a bit high on FanDuel, he makes an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings ($8,600).
In theory, this is an excellent matchup for Myles Turner. The Bucks are ranked dead last in efficiency against centers and they have the fifth-worst rebounding differential of any team in the NBA. Turner is also priced at a discount thanks to the fact that he is only averaging 21 fantasy points over his last five games. I’m not sure I can take the plunge in cash games, but Turner is an intriguing tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Domantas Sabonis has been playing well off the bench, but power forward has some nice value plays that we will cover.
Notable Injuries
Bojan Bogdanovic (Probable)
Matthew Dellavedova (Probable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (9 of 16)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.2 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,600 | $5,600 | $11,000 | 27.0 | -0.4 | 30.2 | -0.6 | 0.90 | 18.6% | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,400 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 43.1 | 14.6 | 34.1 | -10.5 | 1.26 | 27.4% | 17 | 7 | 27 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.8 | -1.6 | 31.3 | -1.7 | 0.67 | 16.2% | 9 | 1 | 28 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,200 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 26.5 | -7.1 | 32.3 | -4.2 | 0.82 | 15.3% | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Myles Turner | $6,300 | $6,100 | $12,200 | 30.2 | -9.3 | 29.4 | -4.8 | 1.03 | 17.9% | 30 | 22 | 3 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 18.7 | 6.1 | 25.5 | 3.4 | 0.73 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 25.6 | 3.9 | 24.5 | 2.7 | 1.05 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Myles Turner (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK)
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.0 |  | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 112.5 | Implied Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | Caris LeVert | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 26 | 15 | 17 | 28 | 28 | DvP | 7 | 19 | 2 | 14 | 12 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 25 | 3 | 15 | 20 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and now own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. Any time a team faces the Nets, we should give their entire offense a sizable boost. Brooklyn is ranked fifth in pace of play and 26th in points allowed per game. While there is always some blowout potential when the Nets are involved, this game is being played in Brooklyn which helps. The spread is set at only seven points, so hopefully the starters will see a full complement of minutes. The Raptors have the third-highest implied total on the board at 112.5 points.
Kyle Lowry will likely be the forgotten point guard in this eight-game slate. Despite a price tag under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, everyone will gravitate to more expensive or to cheaper point guards. I will be loading up on Lowry, as the Nets are ranked 24th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against his position. DeMar DeRozan is priced up, but deservedly so. Over his last five games, he is averaging 47 fantasy points. He also draws a nice matchup against Brooklyn. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Lowry over DeRozan, but the positional differences obviously come into play when building lineups.
The Nets are one of the best possible matchups for an opposing frontcourt. They are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to both power forwards and centers. We should know by now that Serge Ibaka doesn’t like to exceed value when we expect him to. He’s no George Hill (my new arch nemesis), but he seems to have let down games in good spots more often than most. With that said, it’s hard not to like Ibaka’s upside here. Jonas Valanciunas seems a bit overpriced for a center that is playing 22-23 minutes a night. There is another value center that I have my eyes on in this slate.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.1 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.4 (10 of 16)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,900 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 35.2 | -1.0 | 32.7 | -0.7 | 1.08 | 21.3% | 24 | 26 | 4 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $9,100 | $8,800 | $16,700 | 39.6 | 6.9 | 34.4 | 0.8 | 1.15 | 28.2% | 21 | 15 | 19 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 12.7 | -1.9 | 21.5 | 3.4 | 0.59 | 10.6% | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,900 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 26.9 | 1.8 | 28.2 | 1.9 | 0.95 | 17.6% | 24 | 28 | 22 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 23.0 | -0.9 | 20.8 | -2.0 | 1.11 | 17.4% | 27 | 28 | 16 |
| Delon Wright | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 20.0 | 11.7 | 20.9 | 1.9 | 0.96 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have slowed their pace of play down over the last month of play, which has helped with their play on the defensive end of the floor. While they are no longer in the same category as the Suns, they are still one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Luckily, they are playing at home and it’s worth noting that Toronto has picked up their pace of play recently. The Nets’ implied total of 105.5 points is close to their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie has played 36 minutes in back-to-back games and is averaging 30 fantasy points over his last five outings. At a price point of $6,000 on FanDuel, I really want to play him. The matchup against Kyle Lowry is what is holding me back from listing him as an elite play. Lowry is a great individual defender and as a whole, the Raptors are ranked second in efficiency against point guards. Allen Crabbe should be locked into a 30+ minute role and he draws the best matchup of the five starters.
Caris LeVert has missed the last two games with a groin injury, but is expected to play tonight. He had arguably his best four-game stretch of the year before getting hurt, as he scored at least 34 fantasy points in every game. As long as we don’t hear anything about a minute restriction, LeVert makes a nice play on DraftKings ($5,200). Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is grading out as one of the top power forward targets in my DraftKings model (which is featured in the Grind Down update video for anyone that is interested). He has the potential to play 35 minutes at a price of only $5,800.
Notable Injuries
Caris LeVert (Probable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (15 of 16)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $6,000 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 28.4 | 1.8 | 27.5 | 4.7 | 1.03 | 22.4% | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,800 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 20.9 | 2.7 | 28.6 | 1.6 | 0.73 | 16.5% | 29 | 19 | 25 |
| Caris LeVert | $6,100 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 26.9 | -0.3 | 0.96 | 20.1% | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $6,900 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 29.1 | -1.7 | 28.3 | 1.5 | 1.03 | 20.4% | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 16.2 | 1.8 | 18.3 | -2.7 | 0.88 | 15.0% | 6 | 12 | 20 |
| Joe Harris | $3,700 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 17.0 | 4.7 | 24.5 | 2.7 | 0.70 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK), Caris LeVert (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (FD), Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe, Caris LeVert (DK Cash)
Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 221.5 |  | Vegas Total | 221.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -5.5 | Vegas Spread | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 113.5 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 27 | 19 | 24 | 5 | DvP | 12 | 21 | 26 | 8 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 27 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 25 | 11 | 28 | 4 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have not fared well without James Harden in the lineup. They have lost seven of their last ten games and are in danger of falling down in the Western Conference standings. They come into tonight’s game as 5.5-point underdogs against the Bulls, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, as evidenced by the 221.5-point total. The Rockets have the second highest implied total on the board, even though they are playing without their top scorer.
Chris Paul has not lived up to expectations without Harden in the lineup. Over his last four games, Paul is only averaging 40 fantasy points, which is lower than his season average. Don’t jump ship just yet, as Paul is still averaging 1.63 fantasy points per minute without Harden on the floor this season. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Bulls and he should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s if tonight’s game stays competitive. I’d rather pay a premium for Paul than Eric Gordon, who is priced all the way up to $8,000 on FanDuel. Trevor Ariza is going to play 35+ minutes in a nice matchup against the Bulls. He’s not going to have a high usage rate, but he’s certainly viable in cash games if you need a small forward in his price range.
If you are looking for upside, Gerald Green deserves the nod over Ariza. Over his last five games, Green is averaging 28 minutes and 27 fantasy points. Ryan Anderson has scored at least 23 fantasy points in three of his last four road games and is only $4,100 on FanDuel. He’s one of my favorite values at power forward. I never seem to be on Clint Capela in the right spots. He always produces while he’s on the floor, but his minutes are volatile, which leads to unpredictability in his fantasy production. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls sets up fairly well for Capela, but I would only look his way in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
James Harden (Out)
Nene Hilario (Doubtful)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.8 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (16 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $10,200 | $10,000 | $17,800 | 41.6 | -1.8 | 31.8 | 2.3 | 1.31 | 24.4% | 26 | 24 | 5 |
| Eric Gordon | $8,000 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 26.6 | 3.1 | 32.6 | 1.8 | 0.82 | 22.3% | 27 | 27 | 5 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,300 | 24.8 | -2.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.69 | 12.4% | 26 | 19 | 16 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,100 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 20.0 | -1.3 | 28.3 | -2.3 | 0.71 | 13.3% | 28 | 24 | 25 |
| Clint Capela | $7,400 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 35.0 | -5.1 | 25.9 | 1.7 | 1.35 | 17.5% | 13 | 5 | 27 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.8 | -8.2 | 27.0 | -5.0 | 0.62 | 8.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gerald Green | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 22.8 | 4.3 | 25.1 | 2.8 | 0.91 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Ryan Anderson (FD), Gerald Green (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Ryan Anderson (DK), Gerald Green (Cash), Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls’ hot streak appears to be over, as they have lost six of their last ten games. They have been a fun team to target in DFS, but we shouldn’t jump the gun and call them a playoff team anytime soon. Chicago draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets, who haven’t been nearly as effective on the defensive end of the floor recently. The Bulls come into the game with an implied total of 108 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential (+6.3 points) on the board.
If you have read the Grind Down at any point over the last month of play, then you know how much I love Kris Dunn. He is a point guard that is reasonably priced and that can reach value in a number of ways. He can score, rebound, dish out assists, and rack up blocks and steals. While a matchup against Chris Paul is far from appealing, I still have some interest in Dunn in tournaments on DraftKings ($6,800). Justin Holiday has an exploitable matchup against Eric Gordon, his minutes have been trending upward, and he has a high floor. He’s an elite cash game play and I don’t mind targeting him in tournaments as well.
Nikola Mirotic is not expected to play tonight, which would open up 25 minutes in the frontcourt rotation. There isn’t a single player that would soak up that much playing time, but we can give small boosts to Denzel Valentine, Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis, and Robin Lopez. This may sound a bit crazy, but all four are on my radar tonight. Valentine could easily reach value in 30 minutes against the Rockets, Markkanen comes into the game in good form, Portis is a great per-minute producer that should see 20+ minutes, and Lopez offers great value at center. As long as Mirotic is ruled out, I might have to employ a Bulls’ onslaught and hope that this game stays competitive.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Mirotic (Doubtful)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.3 (1 of 16)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 32.3 | 3.1 | 29.0 | 2.2 | 1.12 | 24.6% | 5 | 12 | 6 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,800 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 26.6 | -1.2 | 33.8 | 1.7 | 0.79 | 17.1% | 24 | 21 | 25 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 21.7 | 1.8 | 28.3 | -0.6 | 0.77 | 15.7% | 24 | 26 | 11 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,200 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 27.6 | 1.5 | 29.6 | 0.7 | 0.93 | 19.9% | 7 | 8 | 28 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 24.0 | -2.0 | 28.6 | -4.1 | 0.84 | 18.4% | 14 | 14 | 4 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,500 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 23.2 | -1.5 | 20.4 | -2.1 | 1.14 | 22.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.5 | -4.9 | 23.0 | -3.1 | 0.80 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Justin Holiday, Robin Lopez, Denzel Valentine (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP), Lauri Markkanen (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Denzel Valentine (Cash), Bobby Portis (Cash), Lauri Markkanen (Cash), Kris Dunn (DK)
Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 25 | 30 | 27 | 11 | DvP | 5 | 13 | 29 | 10 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 9 | 26 | 2 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and have quite possibly the best matchup on the schedule tonight. The Pelicans are currently ranked seventh in pace of play, 28th in points allowed per game, and 24th in defensive efficiency. Despite this being a road game, the Pistons have an implied total of 103.8 points, which is two points above their season average. We rarely see Pistons’ games with an over/under of 214 points.
Ish Smith has played well as the Pistons’ starting point guard, but the sites were quick to adjust his price. He was really only an elite value play one time before he was priced up. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Rajon Rondo in a pace-up game for Detroit. There are plenty of options at point guard, but Smith is on my short list of targets on DraftKings ($5,700). Avery Bradley and I have not gotten along well this season. It’s to the point where we might need to call it quits and start seeing other people. I’ve never been a quitter though, so I’ll give him one final chance tonight against New Orleans. He should play 35+ minutes against a team that is ranked 28th in efficiency against shooting guards. He’s also underpriced on FanDuel ($4,900). I’ve put enough effort into this relationship. The ball is in your court now, Bradley.
If Stanley Johnson is unable to suit up, Reggie Bullock would become a decent value at small forward. He’s only averaging 0.60 fantasy points per minute on the season though, so we should temper expectations. Tobias Harris would be the preferred forward to target in this offense. Andre Drummond went through shoot-around and is tentatively expected to play tonight. They will need his size against DeMarcus Cousins, but Drummond is a risky cash game target. If Drummond ends up being a late scratch, whoever gets the nod at center (Eric Moreland or Boban Marjanovic) would become viable in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Andre Drummond (Questionable)
Stanley Johnson (Questionable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 101.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (5 of 16)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,500 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 19.8 | 9.7 | 21.3 | 7.8 | 0.93 | 24.3% | 21 | 19 | 23 |
| Avery Bradley | $4,900 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 23.0 | -6.2 | 31.5 | 1.5 | 0.73 | 20.8% | 28 | 25 | 7 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 13.2 | 4.7 | 22.0 | 10.4 | 0.60 | 11.3% | 18 | 30 | 29 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,800 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 29.0 | 1.6 | 32.8 | 0.3 | 0.88 | 21.0% | 22 | 27 | 2 |
| Andre Drummond | $8,900 | $8,700 | $15,700 | 42.7 | 2.8 | 32.6 | 2.3 | 1.31 | 18.4% | 22 | 11 | 8 |
| Stanley Johnson | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,800 | 17.5 | 0.3 | 27.8 | -3.4 | 0.63 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ish Smith (DK), Avery Bradley (FD)
Secondary Plays – Ish Smith (FD), Avery Bradley (DK), Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond (GPP – if active)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have lost five of their last ten games, but would sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against the Pistons, who play at the seventh slowest pace in basketball. Detroit is also ranked fourth in points allowed per game. With that said, New Orleans is playing at home and they should be able to control the tempo. They have an implied total of 110.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Rajon Rondo hasn’t done much lately, outside of his 25 assist game against the Nets. Point guards have had some success against Detroit this season, but there are better options for both cash games and tournaments. Jrue Holiday will draw the defense of Avery Bradley. While Bradley is a little overrated defensively, he’s still not a player that we want to purposely target shooting guards against. E’Twaun Moore offers decent value, as the Pistons are ranked 26th in efficiency against small forwards this season.
My favorite two targets from the Pelicans are both from the frontcourt. Anthony Davis draws a nice matchup against Tobias Harris, who has one of the worst DRPM grades of any power forward in basketball. Davis is extremely cheap on DraftKings ($9,700), even though is he averaging 54 fantasy points over his last four games. DeMarcus Cousins is also viable if you can find the cap space to pay up at center. Cousins is averaging 58 fantasy points over his last four games and has scored 52 and 55 fantasy points in his last two meetings with Andre Drummond.
Notable Injuries
None
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.7 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,500 | $5,400 | $10,300 | 24.9 | 2.9 | 24.7 | -0.5 | 1.01 | 17.2% | 18 | 5 | 16 |
| Jrue Holiday | $6,800 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 33.8 | -3.7 | 36.4 | -1.3 | 0.93 | 20.1% | 3 | 13 | 20 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 21.4 | -0.3 | 32.2 | 0.7 | 0.66 | 14.2% | 26 | 29 | 9 |
| Anthony Davis | $10,900 | $9,700 | $18,300 | 49.2 | 5.3 | 35.5 | 2.1 | 1.38 | 23.7% | 12 | 10 | 26 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $10,900 | $10,700 | $19,100 | 52.8 | 4.7 | 35.5 | 1.8 | 1.49 | 27.4% | 15 | 20 | 2 |
| Darius Miller | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,300 | 12.2 | -1.3 | 21.4 | 3.4 | 0.57 | 12.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,400 | 12.8 | -6.0 | 22.4 | -4.8 | 0.57 | 9.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (DK), DeMarcus Cousins (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (FD), DeMarcus Cousins (Cash), E’Twaun Moore
Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.0 |  | Vegas Total | 222.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.5 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Isaiah Thomas | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Tyus Jones | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 18 | DvP | 21 | 23 | 23 | 25 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 1 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | DRPM Rat. | N/A | 22 | 21 | 28 | 24 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have lost five of their last ten games and have dropped down to third in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight’s game against the Wolves should be a fun one. We have a total of 222 points and the game is basically set at as a pick ‘em. The Wolves have not been great defensively, ranking 13th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 110.5 points, which is slightly above their season average.
Isaiah Thomas has played well in his first two games with Cleveland, but isn’t seeing enough minutes to justify his price tag. For now, continue to take a wait and see approach. LeBron James is matchup-proof, but he’ll be defended by Jimmy Butler, who is arguably a top three on-ball defender. I’m not going to avoid James completely, but his matchup against Butler is enough to make me pivot to Giannis Antetokounmpo in cash games. Kevin Love is an intriguing tournament play. Not only is this a revenge game, but his price is down and he draws a favorable matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns. On the season, the Wolves are ranked 26th in efficiency against centers.
Notable Injuries
None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (12 of 16)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,200 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 1.04 | 33.7% | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 17.0 | -1.1 | 30.0 | -2.6 | 0.57 | 11.7% | 25 | 11 | 1 |
| LeBron James | $11,400 | $11,500 | $20,400 | 54.9 | 1.2 | 37.2 | -1.4 | 1.48 | 29.7% | 12 | 3 | 28 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,000 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 16.5 | 3.9 | 25.9 | -0.6 | 0.64 | 13.7% | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| Kevin Love | $7,400 | $7,500 | $13,600 | 35.5 | -5.8 | 29.2 | -2.5 | 1.21 | 23.4% | 26 | 18 | 17 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,200 | $4,900 | $9,700 | 24.6 | -2.0 | 23.6 | -1.7 | 1.04 | 22.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 18.9 | 2.6 | 22.5 | 2.8 | 0.84 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kevin Love (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash), LeBron James
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are one of my favorite teams to target in this slate. I’ve been targeting players against the Cavaliers all season, as they are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the fourth highest overall and 3.5 points above their season average. The icing on the cake is that their coach is Tom Thibodeau, who loves to play his starters 35+ minutes a night.
We have a predictable rotation and a great matchup, which sets up beautifully for the Wolves. Tyus Jones hasn’t been nearly as productive in his last few starts as he was in his first few this season, but he should play 30+ minutes in a nice matchup. He’s certainly worth a look on DraftKings at a price of only $4,500. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 33.5 fantasy points in the ten games that he has played without Jeff Teague this season. Wiggins is inconsistent, but he grades out as one of the top values at shooting guard.
Jimmy Butler is a player that I will be forcing into my lineups tonight, especially on DraftKings ($8,400). I would not be surprised if he played more than 40 minutes tonight and made a huge impact on both ends of the floor. He is averaging 44 fantasy points over his last four games and he has a nice track record against LeBron James. Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns are viable as well. Gibson offers a high floor in cash games, while Towns should be able to dominate the paint against an under-sized Cavaliers’ frontcourt.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Jones | $5,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 14.1 | 4.8 | 18.8 | 12.0 | 0.75 | 12.4% | 20 | 21 | N/A |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,700 | $8,400 | $15,700 | 40.0 | 3.7 | 37.1 | -3.1 | 1.08 | 24.0% | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,400 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 29.2 | 3.8 | 36.3 | -1.6 | 0.80 | 21.1% | 23 | 23 | 21 |
| Taj Gibson | $6,200 | $5,500 | $11,100 | 26.6 | -1.2 | 33.7 | -0.5 | 0.79 | 12.7% | 26 | 25 | 28 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,600 | $9,200 | $16,700 | 43.0 | 4.7 | 35.9 | 0.5 | 1.20 | 19.6% | 11 | 10 | 24 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 15.1 | -0.2 | 18.8 | 0.5 | 0.80 | 22.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 16.1 | 2.4 | 18.0 | 1.2 | 0.90 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |