NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 19th
Jump to Page 1 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 224.0 |  | Vegas Total | 224.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | George Hill | LeBron James | Jeff Green | Ante Zizic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 24 | 28 | 20 | 22 | DvP | 6 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 9 | 24 | 23 | 12 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 26 | 27 | 3 | 6 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
We are down to the final three and a half weeks of the regular season. When we get to this point, it’s important to know the motivation for each team in the league. Half are fighting for playoff positioning, while the other half are fighting for positioning in the lottery. The Bucks are currently 37-32, which is good enough for seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. There is still room to move up in the standings, so we can expect Milwaukee to put their best foot forward the rest of the way. They have an excellent matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
Eric Bledsoe has been in foul trouble in two of the last three games, so I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into the decline in his recent playing time. In an important game against the Cavaliers, I’m going to project him for 32-34 minutes, which puts him firmly on my radar in tournaments. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 23rd in efficiency and 24th in DvP against point guards. Brandon Jennings has some tournament appeal off the bench, but his minutes are far from secure. Khris Middleton has an elite matchup, he offers elite minute upside (38+), and his price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
The question that many will ask themselves is whether to play LeBron James or Giannis Antetokounmpo. I don’t want to tip my hand too much, but I plan to fade both on FanDuel. I’m a bigger fan of the value plays at small forward. As for DraftKings, both are on my radar. Giannis has an excellent track record in this matchup, scoring at least 56 fantasy points in five of his last seven games against LeBron. Jabari Parker isn’t quite playing enough minutes to warrant consideration and with the Cavaliers playing a lot of small ball, I’m worried about the minutes for John Henson as well. If Tyler Zeller is ruled out, I would take a look at Henson in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Out)
Tyler Zeller (Questionable)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.3 (5 of 16)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.5 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $8,000 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 34.0 | 0.5 | 31.3 | -1.5 | 1.09 | 23.7% | 23 | 24 | 9 |
| Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 14.4 | 0.1 | 28.5 | -2.5 | 0.50 | 9.7% | 20 | 24 | 24 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,400 | $7,500 | $15,500 | 34.4 | 2.5 | 36.5 | -0.9 | 0.94 | 22.1% | 28 | 28 | 23 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,500 | $10,800 | $19,600 | 52.5 | 2.1 | 37.2 | -1.1 | 1.41 | 28.3% | 26 | 20 | 12 |
| John Henson | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,300 | 23.5 | 3.4 | 25.8 | 2.6 | 0.91 | 12.8% | 14 | 22 | 16 |
| Jabari Parker | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.5 | -0.1 | 21.0 | 1.6 | 0.93 | 20.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Brandon Jennings | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 21.2 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 0.0 | 1.28 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe (GPP), Khris Middleton (FD), Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK)
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (Cash), Khris Middleton (DK), Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD), Brandon Jennings (GPP), John Henson (GPP)
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have lost five of their last ten games and are in danger of losing home-court advantage in the first round of the playoff. They currently hold a half-game lead over the Wizards and Pacers for the third best record in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 16th in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 113.3 points, which is the second highest on the board and three points above their season average.
The key injury to monitor for Cleveland is the availability of Kevin Love. He was originally expected to return on March 23rd, but has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game. If he is active and we hear that he could play 20 minutes, I have plenty of interest on FanDuel at minimum salary ($3,500). If Love is ruled out, we can continue to roll out Jeff Green and Ante Zizic. Green offers the higher floor and ceiling, but Zizic is cheap enough that he would deserve consideration as well. Even if Love is active, Green is still viable, as I would still expect him to play 30+ minutes against the Bucks.
George Hill and Jordan Clarkson will continue to play big minutes with Rodney Hood out and their appeal would go up even more if Kyle Korver (questionable) is unable to play. Hill is the safer cash game option, while Clarkson should garner less ownership in tournaments. LeBron James is the top overall play of the slate, but he is priced at a premium. Given the way roster construction shakes out, I prefer to target LeBron on DraftKings rather than on FanDuel (it’s typically the other way around). LeBron plays well in most matchups and this is no exception. In his last two games against the Bucks, he has scored 61 and 59 fantasy points.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Cedi Osman (Out)
Rodney Hood (Out)
Larry Nance (Out)
Kyle Korver (Questionable)
Kevin Love (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.3 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $4,000 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 15.3 | 3.6 | 0.61 | 11.2% | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| George Hill | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 20.0 | 0.9 | 27.3 | 3.7 | 0.73 | 15.8% | 15 | 11 | 26 |
| LeBron James | $13,100 | $11,700 | $22,100 | 54.1 | 8.8 | 37.1 | -0.2 | 1.46 | 29.5% | 11 | 3 | 27 |
| Jeff Green | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 18.4 | 5.8 | 22.7 | 7.4 | 0.81 | 17.4% | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| Ante Zizic | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 1.09 | 15.2% | 28 | 25 | 6 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.1 | -2.1 | 23.5 | 1.4 | 0.98 | 25.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Korver | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 15.5 | 7.6 | 21.7 | 6.7 | 0.72 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Green, George Hill, LeBron James (DK), Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Kevin Love (FD GPP – if active)
Secondary Plays – LeBron James (FD), Jordan Clarkson (Cash), Kevin Love (FD Cash – if active), Ante Zizic (if Love is out)
Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.5 |  | Vegas Total | 218.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Kuzma | Julius Randle | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Cory Joseph | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 27 | DvP | 23 | 20 | 29 | 29 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 1 | 25 | 7 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 11 | 29 | 13 | 23 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have won six of their last ten games and are one of the few teams that aren’t in the playoff race that have nothing to lose. Most teams are trying to tank at this point, but the Lakers don’t own their first round draft pick. They come into tonight’s game as 4.5-point underdogs against the Pacers, who are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have an implied total of 107 points, which is slightly below their season average.
Cory Joseph and Darren Collison are mediocre defenders, but the Pacers have managed to hold opposing point guards in check this season. They are currently ranked fourth in efficiency and tenth in DvP against the position. With that said, Lonzo Ball is playing 36-40 minutes a night and he is a stat-stuffer that can play well in difficult matchups. He’s on my short list of potential cash game targets, specifically on FanDuel ($7,500). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will play as many minutes as he can handle and his price has come down on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s hard to envision KCP having a bad fantasy outing if he’s going to play 38-40 minutes.
Kyle Kuzma played 32 minutes in his first game back from injury. If he is playing well tonight, he could go right back to seeing minutes in the upper 30s. The best part is that the industry as a whole seems down on him, which will lower his ownership in tournaments. Isaiah Thomas provides a surprisingly high floor at his price point, but the price has come up to a point where I wouldn’t consider him to be an elite play. Julius Randle and Brook Lopez have an exploitable matchup against a Pacers’ frontcourt that doesn’t rebound or defend the paint well. Given the difference in price, I prefer Randle on FanDuel ($7,400) and Lopez on DraftKings ($6,400).
Notable Injuries
Brandon Ingram (Out)
Kyle Kuzma (Probable)
Brook Lopez (Probable)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (14 of 16)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,500 | $7,500 | $13,400 | 34.4 | 2.7 | 33.8 | 3.6 | 1.02 | 18.1% | 4 | 10 | 16 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $6,000 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 27.5 | 1.4 | 33.5 | 3.3 | 0.82 | 15.6% | 23 | 5 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $6,200 | $6,000 | $12,100 | 27.1 | 4.1 | 30.2 | 7.3 | 0.90 | 19.7% | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| Julius Randle | $7,400 | $8,300 | $15,400 | 29.9 | 13.8 | 26.1 | 9.4 | 1.15 | 21.4% | 17 | 9 | 7 |
| Brook Lopez | $6,900 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 23.9 | 13.8 | 22.6 | 9.3 | 1.06 | 21.1% | 22 | 27 | 13 |
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,400 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 24.1 | 0.8 | 27.0 | 3.8 | 0.89 | 25.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Lonzo Ball (FD), Kyle Kuzma (GPP), Julius Randle (FD), Brook Lopez (DK)
Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (DK), Kyle Kuzma (Cash), Julius Randle (DK), Brook Lopez (FD), Isaiah Thomas
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have a lot to play for over the next few weeks. There are four teams in the Eastern Conference that are currently separated by a single loss. Two of them will end up hosting a first-round playoff series, so there is a lot at stake. The Pacers are motivated and they draw an exploitable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 26th in points allowed per game. Indiana has an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the third highest on the board and six points above their season average.
Cory Joseph has played well as the starting lineup for the Pacers. I would typically recommend playing Joseph or Darren Collison, but they could both see a few extra minutes tonight. The Lakers play with two point guards on the floor quite often, so there’s a chance we could see 28-30 minutes for both Joseph and Collison. Of the two, I prefer Joseph on FanDuel ($4,200) and Collison on DraftKings ($4,800). This is the cheapest price point we have had for Victor Oladipo in quite some time. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is an excellent defender, but Oladipo should benefit from the positive game environment. He’s a borderline elite play in all formats.
Domantas Sabonis has already been ruled out, Myles Turner is listed as questionable, and Thaddeus Young has had his minutes monitored recently. If Turner is active and without limitation, he becomes one of the top tournament plays of the slate. He’ll have low ownership and plenty of upside in a favorable matchup against the Lakers. If Turner is unable to suit up, Al Jefferson would draw another start and become a viable option in all formats. In his last two games, Jefferson has scored 43 and 30 fantasy points. Lance Stephenson could also see a boost if Turner is ruled out, but he’s more of a tournament dart than a cash game target.
Notable Injuries
Domantas Sabonis (Out)
Myles Turner (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (4 of 16)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Joseph | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 19.1 | 4.5 | 27.3 | 2.0 | 0.70 | 14.7% | 20 | 23 | 1 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,100 | $8,700 | $15,300 | 42.4 | -8.0 | 34.1 | -2.9 | 1.24 | 27.7% | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,100 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.6 | -4.2 | 30.8 | -2.0 | 0.70 | 16.4% | 17 | 29 | 29 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,100 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 26.7 | -5.9 | 32.4 | -5.4 | 0.82 | 15.1% | 26 | 29 | 13 |
| Myles Turner | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 29.5 | 1.5 | 28.3 | -0.1 | 1.04 | 17.5% | 20 | 16 | 23 |
| Darren Collison | $5,700 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 27.4 | -3.3 | 29.7 | -5.5 | 0.92 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Al Jefferson | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 16.1 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 5.2 | 1.16 | 20.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,900 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 20.6 | -3.5 | 22.7 | -3.8 | 0.91 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Cory Joseph (FD), Darren Collison (DK), Victor Oladipo (GPP), Myles Turner (GPP – if active), Al Jefferson (if Turner is out)
Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph (DK), Darren Collison (FD), Victor Oladipo (Cash), Myles Turner (Cash – if active), Lance Stephenson (GPP – if Turner is out)
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 221.0 |  | Vegas Total | 221.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.5 | Implied Team Total | 114.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Jeremy Lamb | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 18 | 21 | 15 | 13 | DvP | 16 | 14 | 24 | 16 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 26 | 1 | 26 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 9 | |
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are still technically alive in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference, but it would take a miracle. I expect their starters to play a full complement of minutes in games until they are officially ruled out, which will likely come in the next two weeks. As for tonight’s matchup, this one is less than ideal. On the season, the Sixers are ranked 14th in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency. The Hornets have an implied total of only 106.5 points, which is the seventh lowest of the slate.
Nicolas Batum has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which gives to three players in particular. Kemba Walker should see a small usage boost, Jeremy Lamb will enter the starting lineup, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could pick up a few extra minutes. Lamb is close to a must play in all formats, but I don’t expect many to play Walker or MKG. I still see Walker as more of a tournament play in this matchup, but MKG could play minutes in the high 20s at a price under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky are decent point-per-dollar targets, but there are better value plays in the slate. If you are stuck at power forward and need a player at their respective price points, I don’t mind Williams or Kaminsky as the last piece, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to target them. Dwight Howard is one of the top plays at center, especially on FanDuel at a price of only $8,400. With Cody Zeller out, Howard is a safe bet to play 30+ minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble.
Notable Injuries
Cody Zeller (Out)
Nicolas Batum (Out)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.2 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (13 of 16)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,800 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 37.4 | -7.6 | 34.8 | -1.0 | 1.08 | 26.7% | 2 | 11 | 2 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 23.7 | -6.0 | 24.4 | -2.9 | 0.97 | 21.6% | 20 | 18 | 26 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.9 | -1.3 | 25.2 | -2.6 | 0.75 | 14.8% | 9 | 21 | 1 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,100 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.1 | 2.0 | 25.7 | -1.1 | 0.74 | 13.3% | 12 | 15 | 26 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,400 | $8,200 | $14,900 | 37.2 | 9.6 | 30.5 | 0.9 | 1.22 | 19.7% | 7 | 13 | 2 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,300 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 19.2 | -1.3 | 23.2 | -0.9 | 0.83 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Treveon Graham | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 9.4 | -2.2 | 17.1 | -2.8 | 0.55 | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Dwight Howard (DK)
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won six of their last ten games and continue to pull closer to a top four seed in the Eastern Conference. Given the recent struggles of the Cavaliers and Wizards, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Philadelphia host a first-round playoff series. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Sixers have an implied total of 114.5 points, which is the highest of the slate and six points above their season average.
Ben Simmons continues to cruise along in his rookie season, averaging 35 minutes and 42 fantasy points per game on the year. While a matchup against Kemba Walker looks enticing, he will likely spend most of his night being defended by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Simmons is viable, but far from a core play tonight. J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli both grade out as strong values at shooting guard. While I don’t consider them must plays, they are both viable lineup fillers. Robert Covington has averaged 30 fantasy points over his last five games and will likely draw the defense of Jeremy Lamb. Covington is a little expensive, but he might be the best mid-range option at small forward on FanDuel.
Dario Saric is overpriced on FanDuel, but does have an enticing $6,100 price tag on DraftKings. He also has an exploitable matchup against the likes of Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Erasn Ilyasova, who should see minutes in the low to mid 20s off the bench. Joel Embiid has scored at least 50 fantasy points in three straight games and doesn’t seem to be getting any attention heading into tonight’s slate. Sure, he struggled against the Hornets in their last meeting, but the time before that he got Dwight Howard into early foul trouble and put up 52 fantasy points against Charlotte.
Notable Injuries
None
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.5 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.4 (3 of 16)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,700 | $8,500 | $14,900 | 41.5 | -0.9 | 34.6 | -1.7 | 1.20 | 23.0% | 19 | 16 | 21 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,000 | $5,200 | $9,000 | 25.1 | 0.2 | 31.2 | -2.6 | 0.80 | 19.5% | 18 | 14 | 12 |
| Robert Covington | $6,000 | $5,900 | $10,800 | 27.5 | 2.5 | 32.1 | -1.9 | 0.86 | 14.9% | 25 | 24 | 10 |
| Dario Saric | $7,200 | $6,100 | $10,400 | 28.3 | 1.5 | 30.5 | -1.8 | 0.93 | 18.5% | 24 | 16 | 15 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,900 | $9,500 | $16,900 | 45.3 | 0.6 | 31.3 | -0.9 | 1.45 | 28.3% | 12 | 17 | 9 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 21.4 | -0.2 | 25.0 | -1.9 | 0.85 | 15.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $3,700 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.7 | -3.2 | 23.8 | 3.2 | 0.74 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (GPP), Robert Covington (FD)
Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (Cash), Robert Covington (DK), Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Marco Belinelli, Dario Saric (DK), Ersan Ilyasova
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.0 | Vegas Spread | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Bam Adebayo | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 8 | DvP | 26 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 20 | 9 | 14 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 26 | 19 | 3 | 11 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets picked a bad time of the season to hit a slump. They have lost five of their last ten games and would not make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. The good news is that they are right in the thick of things with three weeks left to play. Tonight’s matchup against the Heat is far from ideal, especially with this game being played on the road. On the season, Miami is ranked fourth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets’ implied total is two points below their season average.
It’s hard to find an exploitable matchup when a team faces the Heat. They are ranked 12th or better in efficiency against all five positions and tenth or better in DvP. Jamal Murray has been in solid form recently and should see minutes in the mid-30s with Gary Harris out. The same can be said for Will Barton, who is expected to draw another start at shooting guard. Murray and Barton are both excellent tournament plays, but there are safer cash game targets available tonight. Wilson Chandler has been in great form recently, but small forward is loaded with plays tonight. There are at least six small forwards that I would rather play when factoring in salaries.
Paul Millsap has been quiet over the last couple of weeks. In his last five games, he has only averaged 25 fantasy points per contest. It doesn’t appear that he is on a minute restriction anymore, so if he plays well, he could top 30 minutes. For a player that could be less than 10% owned, I’ll take some shots no Millsap in large-field tournaments. Nikola Jokic is overpriced on FanDuel and slightly underpriced on DraftKings. He has averaged 50 fantasy points over his last five games and shouldn’t garner a lot of ownership in a matchup against the Heat.
Notable Injuries
Gary Harris (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 109.0 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (15 of 16)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $7,000 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 27.3 | 9.1 | 30.6 | 2.7 | 0.89 | 21.1% | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| Will Barton | $6,600 | $6,300 | $11,900 | 30.0 | -4.6 | 32.4 | -1.5 | 0.92 | 19.8% | 8 | 10 | 20 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,200 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 21.5 | 8.3 | 31.1 | 3.7 | 0.69 | 13.6% | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| Paul Millsap | $6,500 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 30.1 | -5.4 | 28.4 | -0.3 | 1.06 | 20.2% | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| Nikola Jokic | $10,000 | $8,800 | $16,200 | 42.0 | 7.5 | 31.5 | 0.9 | 1.33 | 22.1% | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| Mason Plumlee | $3,700 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 21.3 | -2.4 | 20.3 | -3.6 | 1.05 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jamal Murray (GPP), Will Barton (GPP), Paul Millsap (GPP), Nikola Jokic (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray (Cash), Will Barton (Cash), Paul Millsap (Cash), Nikola Jokic (FD), Wilson Chandler
Miami Heat
The Heat have won six of their last ten games. While they are currently in eighth place in the standings, they are a safe bet to make the playoffs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Heat have an implied total of 109 points, which is the sixth highest on the board. Miami also has the second best projected point differential of any team in the slate at +6.5.
Dwyane Wade is still out for Miami, which opens up minutes and usage in the backcourt. This is a blowup spot for Goran Dragic, who is facing a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 27th in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards this season. Dragic should see 30+ minutes at a reasonable price point. He’s an elite play on FanDuel and a borderline elite play on DraftKings. Tyler Johnson should also see around 30 minutes and he should benefit from Gary Harris being out for Denver. Harris is their best perimeter defender. Josh Richardson minutes have taken a bit hit recently, but he did play 31 his last time out. He has upside here, but he offers a low floor for cash games.
James Johnson is coming off of a terrific five-game stretch where he averaged 33 fantasy points per contest. For whatever reason, FanDuel has refused to alter the price points of Johnson and Bam Adebayo. Both are elite plays tonight, as they should both play minutes in the mid to upper 20s. Wayne Ellington is one of the better value plays at shooting guard, as he’ll play close to 30 minutes off the bench. Kelly Olynyk is an excellent pivot off of the more popular Johnson and Adebayo. Olynyk has 40+ fantasy point upside every night and we get the chance to take him at a sliver of the ownership. Justise Winslow has been my go-to play at small forward recently, but there are better plays at the position tonight.
Notable Injuries
Dwyane Wade (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 102.5 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.5 (2 of 16)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,700 | $7,300 | $12,200 | 30.4 | -0.5 | 31.7 | -1.1 | 0.96 | 25.5% | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 22.5 | -1.3 | 29.1 | -0.7 | 0.77 | 17.7% | 10 | 4 | 26 |
| Josh Richardson | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,100 | 26.6 | -4.3 | 33.2 | -10.5 | 0.80 | 16.7% | 13 | 16 | 19 |
| James Johnson | $4,500 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 24.5 | 8.8 | 26.0 | -1.4 | 0.94 | 18.2% | 23 | 23 | 3 |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,600 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 18.6 | 0.9 | 20.2 | 3.4 | 0.92 | 14.7% | 11 | 18 | 11 |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,000 | $4,300 | $8,100 | 17.9 | 2.3 | 26.5 | 2.2 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kelly Olynyk | $5,400 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 23.3 | 7.8 | 23.4 | 1.5 | 0.99 | 18.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Justise Winslow | $5,400 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 19.8 | 7.1 | 24.2 | 4.3 | 0.82 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (FD), Tyler Johnson (FD), James Johnson (FD), Bam Adebayo (FD), Kelly Olynyk (GPP), Wayne Ellington (FD)
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Tyler Johnson (DK), James Johnson (DK), Bam Adebayo (DK), Kelly Olynyk (Cash), Wayne Ellington (DK), Josh Richardson (GPP)
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.0 |  | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Cameron Payne | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Paul Zipser | Cristiano Felicio | Projected Starters | Emmanuel Mudiay | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Michael Beasley | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 17 | 22 | 14 | 12 | DvP | 22 | 28 | 18 | 22 | 23 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 18 | 22 | 28 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 29 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games. While they have no incentive to win at this point of the season, they are playing short-handed, which has tightened the rotation considerably. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Bulls have an implied total of 106 points, which is two points higher than their season average.
With Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine out, Cameron Payne becomes a core play for me in all formats. He drew the start on Saturday night and played well, scoring 27 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. My favorite value play in NBA DFS is a back-up point guard that draws the start and is expected to play a ton of minutes. Justin Holiday might be the starter in name, but he is not playing enough minutes to warrant consideration. Rookie Antonio Blakeney has shined off the bench and should push for 25+ minutes at a price close to minimum salary. He’s the preferred target over Holiday.
Denzel Valentine had one of the best games of his career on Saturday. While I hate chasing big games, he’s going to play minutes in the 30s against the Knicks. I probably won’t have any exposure to him on FanDuel (given how many great small forwards there are), but he is on my short list of potential targets on DraftKings. The one and only Bulls’ big on my radar tonight is Bobby Portis. He is still coming off the bench, but he played 34 minutes in the absence of Lauri Markkanen on Saturday. Portis is an elite tournament play, but is a little too expensive to consider in a cash game setting.
Notable Injuries
Lauri Markkanen (Out)
Kris Dunn (Out)
Zach LaVine (Out)
Noah Vonleh (Questionable)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (9 of 16)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Payne | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 20.4 | 2.9 | 20.2 | 3.5 | 1.01 | 20.8% | 18 | 25 | 30 |
| Justin Holiday | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 24.9 | -13.2 | 33.2 | -18.6 | 0.75 | 16.2% | 13 | 17 | 18 |
| Denzel Valentine | $6,300 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 22.9 | 7.6 | 27.5 | -0.1 | 0.83 | 17.0% | 29 | 22 | 22 |
| Paul Zipser | $4,000 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 0.63 | 13.2% | 9 | 14 | 28 |
| Cristiano Felicio | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 15.4 | 5.2 | 0.66 | 10.9% | 13 | 12 | 29 |
| Bobby Portis | $7,000 | $7,100 | $13,200 | 25.6 | 7.9 | 22.3 | 5.6 | 1.15 | 23.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $4,100 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 17.8 | -2.5 | 22.7 | -1.2 | 0.78 | 12.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Antonio Blakeney | $3,900 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 15.6 | 3.3 | 0.73 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Cameron Payne, Antonio Blakeney (DK), Denzel Valentine (DK), Bobby Portis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Antonio Blakeney (FD), Denzel Valentine (FD), Bobby Portis (Cash)
New York Knicks
The Knicks finally picked up a win their last time out, but management couldn’t have been too happy about it. Every win from here on out will cost them ping pong balls in the draft lottery. While that makes it difficult to predict rotations, the Knicks have an excellent matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Knicks have an implied total of 111 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential (+6.7) of any team in the slate.
Emmanuel Mudiay has plenty of upside in tonight’s matchup against the Bulls, who do not defend point guards well. I’ve been on the right side of Mudiay more often than most this season and actually like him as a low-owned tournament play. Courtney Lee is expected to play tonight, but will likely be limited once again. Lee and Enes Kanter have been easy fades for me over the last few weeks. In my eyes, the risk outweighs the potential reward.
Tim Hardaway had a big game against the Hornets the other night, but ended up sitting the entire fourth quarter. In a game that features a low spread, he should see a full complement of minutes in a favorable matchup against Chicago. Hardaway is an elite tournament play tonight and I wouldn’t hesitate to throw him into a cash game lineup as well. I’ve been holding off on Michael Beasley since the All-Star break, but may dip my toes into the water tonight. With Lance Thomas out, Beasley should rejoin the starting lineup. He has 40+ fantasy upside when given big minutes.
Notable Injuries
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.7 (1 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $5,100 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 17.0 | 6.2 | 19.6 | 6.1 | 0.87 | 23.1% | 22 | 22 | 7 |
| Courtney Lee | $3,700 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 22.5 | -10.1 | 31.2 | -7.1 | 0.72 | 16.3% | 28 | 28 | 4 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,300 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 28.4 | 1.2 | 32.9 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 22.2% | 24 | 18 | 20 |
| Michael Beasley | $5,700 | $6,600 | $12,000 | 22.7 | 3.4 | 21.7 | 6.5 | 1.05 | 23.1% | 29 | 22 | 22 |
| Enes Kanter | $5,900 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 30.5 | -4.9 | 25.5 | -5.3 | 1.20 | 18.9% | 22 | 23 | 29 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $5,800 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 20.8 | 11.1 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 1.20 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Burke | $5,000 | $4,900 | $9,500 | 18.9 | 0.4 | 16.8 | 0.8 | 1.12 | 27.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |