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NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-18 00:02:39

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Dallas at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM

Dallas Philadelphia
dallasnba Vegas Total 199.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 98.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 27 3 29 28 27 Opp. Season 19 9 1 29 11
Opp. Last 7 30 13 24 29 28 Opp. Last 7 28 10 5 24 10

Dallas

The Mavericks will be at full-strength tonight, as they take on the Sixers in Philadelphia. Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, and Wesley Matthews all sat out the second half of their back-to-back on Saturday night, but all three are expected to return to the lineup tonight. The Mavericks are 8-point favorites tonight against the winless Sixers.

Despite playing at a below-average pace, the Sixers are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers have been one of the best teams to target players against for fantasy production, but as always, there is the potential for this game to turn into a blowout.

Even though they have one of the best matchups on paper, the Mavericks are a tough team to target tonight. Not only are they large favorites, but they are a well-balanced team that has a very deep rotation. Deron Williams, Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews, and Chandler Parsons could all see under 30 minutes of action tonight. Dwight Powell is the one player that really stands out in this matchup. He has been a great weapon off the bench and the Sixers are ranked dead last in rebounding differential.

Elite Plays

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 21.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.1
FP/Game: 24.5 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 27.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 29.5 — FP/Min.: 1.06

Zaza Pachulia

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 26.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.8
FP/Game: 26.5 — FP/Min.: 0.99

Wesley Matthews

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 26.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.7
FP/Game: 16.0 — FP/Min.: 0.60

Philadelphia

The Sixers are still searching for their first win of the season, after losing their first ten games by an average of 13.5 points. The Sixers are large underdogs tonight at home against the Mavericks. Robert Covington is expected to return from his MCL sprain, but he will be on a minute restriction. If anything, his return only makes the wing players from Philadelphia less playable.

The Sixers draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked between 14th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Sixers have an implied team total of 95.5 points, which is the lowest on the board tonight.

The Sixers have been a tough team to target this season when they have all been healthy. Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor both cut into each other’s production. The same goes for T.J. McConnell and Isaiah Canaan. Now that Robert Covington is back in the mix, he will cut into the production of Nik Stauskas and Jerami Grant. Basically, what I’m getting at is that there aren’t any individual players that really stand out in this matchup. Noel is my favorite play of the group here. The Mavericks have not defended power forwards well and his price has come down since returning from his injury.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 32.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.4
FP/Game: 27.9 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $6,700 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 33.8 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 23.6
FP/Game: 31.2 — FP/Min.: 0.92

T.J. McConnell

FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 29.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 11.3
FP/Game: 22.9 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Nik Stauskas

FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 29.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.2
FP/Game: 18.6 — FP/Min.: 0.62

Boston at Houston – 8:00 PM

Boston Houston
bostonnba Vegas Total 207.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 102.00 Team Pace 100.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Jared Sullinger Amir Johnson Proj. Starter Ty Lawson James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 24 19 28 30 20 Opp. Season 1 22 22 10 16
Opp. Last 7 22 27 23 27 22 Opp. Last 7 1 6 18 5 21

Boston

The Celtics are 5-4 to open the season. Despite playing at a very fast pace – 102 possessions per game, Boston has been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, holding their opponents to 96.0 points per contest. Their defense will have their work cut out for them tonight, as they head to Houston to take on the talented Rockets’ offense. We also need to point out that the Celtics are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City last night.

The back-to-back may be a concern for some teams, but it’s not a big factor for the Celtics. Not only are they one of the youngest teams in the NBA, but they have a deep rotation and few players average over 30 minutes per game. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season.

The Rockets have taken a step backward defensively this season, as evidenced by all of the green and blue rankings in the DvP chart above. The Celtics’ backcourt is tough to predict right now, especially now that Avery Bradley is back in the mix. There are too many players splitting minutes for my liking. Jared Sullinger has been terrific recently though, posting at least ten points or ten rebounds in each of his last seven games. He deserves the elite play tag tonight against the Rockets, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. Jae Crowder is also in play here. After a quiet night against the Thunder, this is a good spot for a bounce back.

Elite Plays

Jared Sullinger

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 24.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.8
FP/Game: 27.5 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

If he remains in the starting lineup.
FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 30.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 27.7
FP/Game: 32.8 — FP/Min.: 1.06

Jae Crowder

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 30.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.0
FP/Game: 25.9 — FP/Min.: 0.85

Houston

The Rockets will have Dwight Howard back in the lineup tonight, after he sat out the second half of their back-to-back on Saturday night against the Mavericks. With how well Terrence Jones has played in the last two games, it will be interesting to see if he has reclaimed his starting role moving forward. If that’s the case, Marcus Thornton will head back to the bench and back to fantasy oblivion.

The Rockets draw a difficult matchup on paper against the Celtics, who are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defenisve efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. We shouldn’t factor that in too much tonight though, as the Rockets have the third highest implied team total on the board at 106.3 points. Both of these teams average over 100 possessions per game, which should result in an uptempo game.

James Harden is one of those players that we never really have to worry about when it comes to his individual matchup. Not only can he score on anyone at will, but a lot of his points and assists come in transition. That said, he does draw a tough matchup against Avery Bradley. That’s not enough to fade him tonight, but it’s worth noting. Terrence Jones would remain an elite play tonight, assuming that he draws another start at power forward. Dwight Howard is also worth a look at his discounted price tag on DraftKings.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,200 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 39.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 28.6
FP/Game: 45.9 — FP/Min.: 1.16

Terrence Jones

If he is in the starting lineup.
FD: $5,900 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 25.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.0
FP/Game: 23.9 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Borderline elite play on DraftKings.
FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 30.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 17.7
FP/Game: 36.1 — FP/Min.: 1.19

Indiana at Chicago – 8:00 PM

Indiana Chicago
indiananba Vegas Total 198.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 100.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Monta Ellis Paul George C.J. Miles Jordan Hill Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Doug McDermott Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 25 11 26 2 25 Opp. Season 3 23 8 7 19
Opp. Last 7 21 16 25 4 15 Opp. Last 7 5 19 10 1 7

Indiana

The Pacers have won three games in a row and have improved to 6-4 on the season. It’s a little too early in the season to call it a statement game, but this is a big game for both of these teams. They will likely be fighting for playoff positioning in the East. The Pacers are 5-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls in Chicago.

The Bulls have played at a quicker tempo this season and it has hurt their play on the defensive end of the floor. While they are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency, they are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers have a low implied team total tonight of 96.5 points, which is the third lowest on the board tonight. We don’t have to fade the Pacers altogether, but this isn’t a matchup where we need to go overboard with our picks either.

Paul George has been the best fantasy option on the Pacers this season. He has played well in both favorable and difficult matchups. He is a multi-dimensional player with one of the highest turnover-adjusted usage rates in the NBA at 25.8. Rodney Stuckey and George Hill have both been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Monta Ellis should 1. handle the ball for most of the game and 2. see all of the minutes that he can handle. This also gives a small boost to C.J. Miles and potentially to Jordan Hill if he slides into the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $9,200 — DK: $9,200
Min/Game: 36.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 25.8
FP/Game: 41.5 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Monta Ellis

FD: $6,600 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 33.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.7
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Secondary Plays

Jordan Hill

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 23.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 18.1
FP/Game: 20.7 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Ian Mahinmi

FD: $4,600 — DK: $3,900
Min/Game: 23.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 13.1
FP/Game: 19.6 — FP/Min.: 0.83

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 27.0 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 18.0 — FP/Min.: 0.67

Chicago

The Bulls are looking for their third win in a row tonight. It is still early in the season, but Chicago fans have to be excited with what they have seen from Derrick Rose over the last couple of weeks. If they are going to have any chance of beating the Cavaliers, they are going to need Rose to play at an All-Star level this season.

The Bulls draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While the matchup is less than ideal, Chicago has an implied team total of 101.5 points tonight, which is nearly identical to their average points scored per game this season.

Is it just me, or do Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler have a non-mutual symbiotic relationship? They take turns being the parasite, hurting the production of the other, the host. There have been very few times this season when they have both had good fantasy outings. They are both ball-dominant players that seem to be battling each other trying to the top dog in Chicago. Butler draws the better matchup of the two tonight, but both players are secondary options tonight. Joakim Noah could make an intriguing play here if the Bulls insert him into the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Joakim Noah

If he draws the start at center.
FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 20.9 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 9.9
FP/Game: 19.6 — FP/Min.: 0.94

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 35.6 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.1
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Derrick Rose

FD: $6,800 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 32.3 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 21.3
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min.: 0.73

Oklahoma City at Memphis – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Memphis
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 198.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 100.5
Team Pace 101.90 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Anthony Morrow Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 23 12 21 25 3 Opp. Season 7 29 14 18 6
Opp. Last 7 18 18 4 28 3 Opp. Last 7 13 17 9 21 4

Oklahoma City

The Thunder are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, after losing to the Celtics on their home floor last night. The Thunder are hoping to have Kevin Durant back here soon, but luckily they have two Supermans on their team. An all-new edition of the Russell Westbrook Show will start tonight at 8:00 P.M. E.T.

The Grizzlies are very slowly improving on the defensive end of the floor, but they are still ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: a team that plays at this slow of a pace that has such a good track record on the defensive end of the floor can’t be this bad for much longer. The Thunder have a low implied team total of 98.0 points, which is 12 points lower than their average points scored per game this season.

Despite playing in the second half of a back-to-back and drawing a mediocre-at-best matchup, Russell Westbrook is still the top dog when it comes to fantasy options tonight. With Kevin Durant out of the lineup, Westbrook is a walking triple-double. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight in what is expected to be a close game against the Grizzlies. Serge Ibaka is a borderline elite play at power forward, although he has a knack of letting us down once we start expecting big things from him. Dion Waiters is also in play off the bench.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $11,400 — DK: $12,200
Min/Game: 34.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 30.4
FP/Game: 51.3 — FP/Min.: 1.49

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 33.5 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.7
FP/Game: 30.3 — FP/Min.: 0.90

Dion Waiters

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 26.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 14.8
FP/Game: 18.7 — FP/Min.: 0.71

Memphis

The Grizzlies are looking to get to .500 for the first time this season. They can accomplish that feat with a win tonight at home against the Thunder. Vegas doesn’t appear to have a ton of confidence in Memphis though, as they are only 2.5-point favorites even though the Thunder will be without Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are the best rebounding team in the NBA, but that’s about all they have going for them on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game and 17th in fantasy points allowed per game this season. This should be a pace-up game for the Grizzlies, who have an implied team total of 100.5 points. That number may not appear high, but it is actually seven points higher than their average points scored per game this season.

It has been a while, but Marc Gasol finally appears to be back. He has had three straight quality fantasy outings and we have seen an increase in both minutes and usage during that stretch. The masses will not be on Gasol tonight, but he is a very safe cash game option at center. Mike Conley is an interesting play at point guard, although I am always concerned with point guards against Russell Westbrook, as he draws as many fouls as anyone. Jeff Green is also worth a look if he remains in the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 32.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.2
FP/Game: 28.5 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 31.7 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 26.0 — FP/Min.: 0.82

Jeff Green

If he remains in the starting lineup.
FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,500
Min/Game: 24.2 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 13.4 — FP/Min.: 0.55

Portland at San Antonio – 8:30 PM

Portland San Antonio
portlandnba Vegas Total 203.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 107.8
Team Pace 98.50 Team Pace 98.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Chris Kaman Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 26 1 4 1 4 Opp. Season 28 17 2 12 29
Opp. Last 7 11 2 2 8 17 Opp. Last 7 19 5 17 17 27

Portland

The Blazers have lost five games in a row, after a promising start to the season. This is a perfect example of their record finally catching up to their talent level. While I am rooting for the Blazers to play well, they just don’t have the pieces that they need to compete in a tough Western Conference. Portland will have their hands full tonight, as they head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs.

There are a handful of teams that I try to avoid taking players against, unless of course there is an obvious value or something like that. The Spurs are one of those teams, as they are ranked first or second in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Blazers are only projected to score 95.8 points tonight, which is the second lowest implied team total on the board. In a potential blowout, I will be avoiding the Blazers altogether tonight. And yes, that includes Damian Lillard.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio

The Spurs just continue to win. Game after game, year after year, and century after century, millenia after millenia. It almost doesn’t seem fair that they haven’t had to rebuild once in the last 20 years. The Spurs should add another win to their already-impressive resume tonight, as they host the struggling Blazers.

We are still early into the season, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t get “Popped.” If you have played fantasy basketball in years past, then you know that we want to avoid the Spurs whenever they are either playing in the second half of a back-to-back, or when they are double-digit favorites. Coach Popovich is all about playoffs wins, not individual production, Even though the Spurs draw a favorable matchup against the Blazers, they are risky fantasy options tonight in what could easily turn into a blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,400 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 33.4 — Turnover-Adjusted Usage: 22.8
FP/Game: 37.6 — FP/Min.: 1.13

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious