Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-22 06:22:13

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Washington Wizards
phoenixnba Vegas Total 218.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 113.0
Pace +/- -0.6 Pace +/- 5.7
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 2 24 24 23 10 2016-17 25 12 28 28 20

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are only 4-10 on the season, but at least those four wins have come in their last ten games. They fit the mold of a team that we love to target players from and to target players against in DFS. They are currently ranked first in pace of play, sixth in points scored per game, and 30th in points allowed per game. The main issue with the Suns is always the potential blowouts, given how young and inconsistent this team plays on a nightly basis. Phoenix comes into tonight’s game against the Wizards as 8-point underdogs with the fourth highest implied total in the slate at 105 points. The matchup is an exploitable one, as the Wizards are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

The two situations to monitor here are Tyson Chandler and T.J. Warren. Chandler was not with the team in Philadelphia, as he continues to deal with a personal issue. If he is unable to play tonight, Alex Len would draw another start at center. In six starts this season, Len is averaging 9.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Len would have much better numbers as a starter if it weren’t for Alan Williams, who came out of nowhere in the last two games, scoring 39 and 36 fantasy points. If T.J. Warren is unable to suit up, P.J. Tucker would draw another start at small forward and provide some much-needed value in this nine game slate. Warren’s absence would also give a small boost to Brandon Knight and Jared Dudley. Eric Bledsoe may have the safest minute projection of the five Suns’ starers, but he also draws the worst matchup. The Wizards are ranked second against point guards this season. Overall, this is a fantasy-friendly game environment, but we have to pick our spots with an Earl Watson-coached team given his inconsistent rotations.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Eric Bledsoe $6,900 $6,800 $11,200 0.98 31.5 -5.8 30.8 -7.9 27.0% 4.3% 2
Devin Booker $6,000 $6,200 $10,400 0.79 33.0 -7.0 25.9 -5.7 26.6% 2.0% 24
T.J. Warren $5,500 $5,900 $9,100 0.86 32.3 -18.6 27.9 -21.3 22.1% -0.1% 24
Marquese Chriss $3,500 $3,000 $6,800 0.69 14.9 1.2 10.3 -2.6 20.2% -3.2% 23
Tyson Chandler $4,700 $4,700 $9,000 0.83 27.8 -7.1 23.1 -8.1 9.6% -3.7% 10
Alex Len $4,900 $5,000 $9,100 1.00 21.8 1.1 21.9 0.7 17.2% -2.7% 23
jared Dudley $3,900 $4,000 $7,600 0.70 25.1 0.9 17.6 -0.5 14.2% 0.1% 23
Alan Williams $4,200 $3,900 $6,800 1.44 11.6 6.0 16.7 10.0 18.1% -1.6% 10

Elite Plays – Alex Len (if Tyson Chandler is out)

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, P.J. Tucker, Brandon Knight, Jared Dudley, Alan Williams (if Tyson Chandler is out)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards just can’t seem to find any rhythm on either end of floor. They are currently ranked 18th in pace of play, 19th in points scored per game, and 20th in points allowed per game. We can basically throw all of that out the window tonight though, as they draw the best matchup in the entire slate. Washington gets to play in a pace-up game against the Suns, who are ranked 30th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. The Wizards have an implied total of 113 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 10.4 points above their season average. If this game stays relatively close, a Wizards’ stack could be a viable route to take in both cash games and tournaments.

If you look at the DvP chart above, the Suns are ranked in the bottom six in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor except shooting guard. In addition to the best possible matchup, the Wizards don’t play again until Friday, so they may want to give their starters as many minutes as possible. John Wall is averaging 43.2 fantasy points over his last five games and has a true usage rate of 37.2% on the season. A matchup against the likes of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight should result in a hot knife going through butter. We aren’t even talking about cold butter either, I’m talking about a hot knife (Wall) going through room temperature butter (Bledsoe and Knight’s defense). In other words, play Wall tonight. Bradley Beal has looked good when healthy and with the Wizards having a nice break until their next game, should see a full complement of minutes. Otto Porter is having a breakout season and should perform well in an uptempo game against the Suns. Markieff Morris has really taken a step back in his last three games, but his price has come down to a playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he is in a superb revenge spot against his former team. And finally, Marcin Gortat is a borderline elite play in all league formats. He is averaging close to 35 minutes per game and he gets to face a Suns’ defense that is ranked 20th against centers. I would give Gortat a sizable boost if Tyson Chandler is ruled out for Phoenix.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
John Wall $9,200 $9,000 $12,800 1.24 33.1 -2.4 41.2 2.0 37.2% 1.8% 25
Bradley Beal $5,700 $6,000 $10,300 0.83 32.1 2.6 26.7 9.2 25.7% 3.5% 12
Otto Porter $6,200 $6,300 $9,600 0.88 35.3 3.7 31.2 2.8 17.1% -0.8% 28
Markieff Morris $5,300 $5,600 $9,100 0.81 31.0 -6.0 25.3 -8.6 21.2% -0.8% 28
Marcin Gortat $6,600 $6,100 $9,700 0.89 34.8 1.0 31.0 1.5 14.1% -0.5% 20

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris (GPP) Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (Cash)

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat Philadelphia 76ers
miaminba Vegas Total 199.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 97.3
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Josh Richardson Dion Waiters Derrick Williams Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 27 15 29 15 23 2016-17 4 6 9 10 16

Miami Heat

The Heat have won two games in a row and are still sitting at a disappointing 4-8 overall. They have a nice collection of young talent, but they are still a few pieces away from making any headway in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are currently ranked 23rd in pace of play and 27th in points scored per game, so the chatter of them being an uptempo offense was clearly just coach speak. Tonight they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers in a game that features a spread of only 4.5 points. The Heat have an implied total of 101.8 points. While their total is still below the average of the 18 teams in action tonight, it is 5.6 points above their season average, which is the third largest gap in tonight’s slate.

Goran Dragic appears to be fully recovered from his ankle injury, as he has played 35 and 37 minutes in the last two games. He leads the Heat in true usage at 27.3% on the season and he draws a tremendous matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to point guards this season. Dragic is a borderline elite play in all formats, but as usual, there are a ton of options at point guard tonight. Josh Richardson is a sneaky value play on FanDuel and Rosters. With Justise Winslow out, he should see minutes in the low to mid-30s against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Dion Waiters has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last four games, but is listed as a game-time decision. If he is unable to suit up, give an even bigger boost to Dragic and Richardson. I can’t wait to watch Hassan Whiteside and Joel Embiid square off against one another tonight. Whiteside is averaging 35.8 minutes and 50.2 fantasy points in his last three games and is the premier play at center in this nine game slate. Tyler Johnson is also worth noting, but his minutes have trailed off since Dragic returned to the lineup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Goran Dragic $6,700 $6,600 $10,900 0.91 32.5 3.3 29.4 1.5 27.3% -0.8% 27
Josh Richardson $4,400 $5,300 $7,600 0.68 28.9 5.9 19.8 8.0 20.7% 0.1% 15
Dion Waiters $5,000 $5,100 $8,300 0.74 31.9 0.8 23.7 5.9 25.9% 5.0% 29
Derrick Williams $3,700 $3,100 $6,800 0.69 14.9 1.8 10.3 1.0 18.9% 0.8% 15
Hassan Whiteside $9,100 $9,300 $13,800 1.30 33.3 2.5 43.4 6.8 23.3% -2.5% 23
Tyler Johnson $4,500 $5,000 $7,900 0.81 29.3 -2.4 23.7 -6.1 20.3% 2.8% 27

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), Dion Waiters, James Johnson

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are 3-10 on the season and no longer own the worst record in the NBA; that honor belongs to the Dallas Mavericks. This has been a fun team to watch. Scratch that, Joel Embiid has made this a fun team to watch. After his career night against the Suns, he went to a club in Philadelphia with his own jersey on. The only player that could pull that off is one that has a nickname of “The Process.” This guy is quickly becoming my favorite player in the NBA. Does anyone know the plural form of the word process (I tried the Google machine, but to no avail)? The Philadelphia Procei (or Processes) would be amazing. I digress. The Sixers draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked third in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Sixers have the third lowest implied total in the slate at only 97.3 points.

The Sixers have really lacked fantasy appeal this season, with the exception of Joel Embiid. He is still on his 24-minute restriction, but that has been more than enough time for him to reach value. The crazy part is how high his floor has been despite playing such limited minutes. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in every single game this season. Obviously, his matchup against Hassan Whiteside leaves much to be desired, but Embiid is still a borderline elite play on FanDuel at a price of only $5,700. The rest of the Sixers are easy fades tonight. Ersan Ilyasova and Dario Saric have flashed some upside, but neither stands out in a difficult matchup against the Heat.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sergio Rodriguez $4,900 $4,800 $8,600 0.79 28.9 -2.0 22.8 -1.7 22.6% -1.6% 4
Gerald Henderson $3,900 $3,500 $9,000 0.69 24.6 -3.0 16.9 -0.5 18.0% 0.3% 6
Robert Covington $4,200 $4,300 $9,500 0.67 26.9 -3.8 18.1 -4.8 16.7% 3.9% 9
Ersan Ilyasova $3,900 $4,100 $7,000 0.78 23.2 0.4 18.2 -0.3 20.1% 0.8% 10
Joel Embiid $5,700 $6,400 $8,900 1.36 22.0 -0.6 29.9 0.3 36.2% -4.0% 16
Dario Saric $4,400 $4,700 $8,100 0.77 26.8 -0.6 20.5 5.0 20.7% 1.8% 10
Jahlil Okafor $4,400 $4,400 $8,700 0.91 19.5 1.1 17.8 -1.3 24.5% -5.8% 16

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid (FD)

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid (DK)

Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Indiana Pacers
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 220.0 indiananba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Spread -13.0 Vegas Spread 13.0
Team Total 116.5 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- 3.7
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Glenn Robinson III Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 19 17 10 22 27 2016-17 24 26 16 26 9

Golden State Warriors

After a slow start to the season, the Warriors have come together and they look as good as they ever have. They currently own a seven game winning streak and their point differential continues to get better with each and every game. They are ranked third in pace of play, first in points scored per game at 116.8, and first in my NBA’s Best Dance Crew rankings “thanks to Zaza Pachulia. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. The main concern here is a potential blowout, as the Pacers will be without Paul George. The Warriors are currently listed as 13-point favorites with an implied total of 116.8 points, which is the highest in the slate.

I have been trying to put less stock into blowouts this season because they are hard to predict and generally, the team that is winning has good performances from their star players. With that said, the Warriors have shown that they can beat teams by 30, even on the road. The question that we need to ask is whether or not we are comfortable playing the Warriors in a game where their starters could potentially play less than 30 minutes. While I won’t be stacking the Warriors in cash games, I will have some exposure because the matchup is just too good to ignore. Stephen Curry has had subpar outings in back-to-back games, but is priced under $9,000 on FanDuel. Klay Thompson has caught fire recently, averaging over 30 fantasy points in his last three games. Kevin Durant has been the most consistent fantasy performer from Golden State and for whatever reason, the sites refuse to price him as a superstar. Draymond Green never quite sees the ownership that he should and after a couple of quiet games, his ownership could dip below 15%. I will have plenty of Green shares in my GPP lineups.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Stephen Curry $8,800 $9,200 $14,300 1.20 33.4 2.7 39.9 -0.7 31.7% 0.4% 19
Klay Thompson $6,000 $6,200 $10,900 0.79 34.2 -0.8 26.9 3.8 23.8% 1.9% 17
Kevin Durant $9,900 $9,600 $15,100 1.37 35.0 -0.1 47.9 3.1 27.8% -0.5% 10
Draymond Green $8,000 $7,700 $12,700 1.13 33.7 1.5 38.0 -5.5 19.0% -0.2% 22
Zaza Pachulia $3,800 $3,400 $8,000 0.93 17.2 0.7 15.9 3.8 14.1% 4.0% 27
Andre Iguodala $3,900 $3,600 $7,500 0.69 24.6 -0.7 17.0 5.0 12.2% 1.9% 10

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green (Cash)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are 7-7 on the season and look like a team that could sneak into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. They have a tall task ahead of them tonight though, as they have to face the Warriors without two of their best offensive players in Paul George and C.J. Miles. If Indiana can keep the game close, it would be a goldmine for fantasy production, as the rest of the starters have a lot of slack to pick up in their absence. They also draw a favorable matchup against a Warriors’ defense that is ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Pacers have an implied total of 103.5 points, which is up there considering the fact that they will be playing without two of their best scorers.

It should be noted that this is the second game of a back-to-back for Indiana, but Nate McMilan may not have a choice but to play his starters big minutes. Jeff Teague is averaging 43.9 fantasy points in his last three games and leads the Pacers in true usage at 27%. He draws the best matchup of the five starters, although the Warriors may decide to put Klay Thompson on him at some point. Monta Ellis sees a nice usage boost without Paul George and C.J. Miles and is a viable mid-range option at shooting guard. The obvious value play of the night is Glenn Robinson III, who put up 30 fantasy points in 45 minutes against the Thunder last night. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner should both be heavily involved offensively tonight and are both worth a look in all formats. This is a strange situation, as all five starters stand out as great plays, but at the same time the game could easily turn into a blowout by halftime.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $6,600 $6,900 $10,400 0.99 32.3 4.2 31.9 12.0 27.0% 0.3% 24
Monta Ellis $5,500 $5,600 $9,500 0.68 34.5 2.2 23.6 2.1 18.4% -0.7% 26
Glenn Robinson III $3,500 $3,700 $6,000 0.66 14.6 9.2 9.7 4.9 15.9% -1.8% 16
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,500 $9,900 0.80 30.3 5.6 24.4 5.1 15.8% 2.9% 26
Myles Turner $6,200 $6,500 $11,000 1.04 28.5 5.6 29.8 1.8 19.8% -1.8% 9
Rodney Stuckey $3,500 $3,000 $7,400 0.48 14.0 1.2 6.8 -0.7 23.3% 3.3% 26

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Glenn Robinson III, Thaddeus Young

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner

Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Charlotte Hornets
memphisnba Vegas Total 195.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 95.0 Team Total 100.5
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- -4.0
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen James Ennis JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Roy Hibbert
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 18 10 11 14 21 2016-17 8 6 1 6 1

Memphis Grizzlies

Raise your hand if you are excited about this game. Don’t be shy. Well, it looks like I’m not the only one that isn’t excited to watch the Grizzlies take on the Hornets in the middle of November. Memphis is 8-5 on the season, but they haven’t won by scoring a lot of points. They are ranked 28th in pace of play, 26th in points scored per game, and fourth in points allowed per game. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets’ team that has just as good of a defense. The spread for this game may be low, but the over/under is set at a measly 195.5 points. This should be a defensive battle throughout, which makes it a tough game to target on a night that features a busy NBA schedule. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol are both decent secondary options, but the Grizzlies have the second lowest implied total in the slate at only 95 points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Mike Conley $6,900 $6,400 $11,300 1.02 32.3 1.0 32.8 0.2 28.6% -6.4% 18
Tony Allen $3,800 $3,300 $6,800 0.70 20.9 -1.9 14.7 -0.3 17.5% -0.6% 10
James Ennis $4,100 $3,900 $7,100 0.63 30.4 2.0 19.3 1.2 14.0% 0.7% 11
JaMychal Green $4,200 $3,800 $7,200 0.65 28.0 -0.7 18.1 3.3 15.2% 1.6% 14
Marc Gasol $6,700 $6,400 $10,700 0.97 32.5 -0.2 31.6 -3.4 28.0% -2.9% 21
Zach Randolph $5,400 $5,000 $9,100 1.14 22.0 1.0 25.1 0.2 30.4% -3.1% 14

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are 8-4 to start the season and currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference standings. They have played at a fairly quick pace, but still have one of the best defenses in the NBA. They draw a pace-down matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, who are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Charlotte is only projected to scored 100.5 points, which is the sixth lowest in the slate and 5.4 points below their season average. If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the Grizzlies are ranked eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to every single position on the floor. In what is expected to be a slow-paced, defensive battle, I’ll be looking elsewhere for my DFS targets.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $8,200 $8,200 $12,000 1.23 33.2 2.2 40.8 4.0 31.7% 0.2% 8
Nicolas Batum $6,900 $6,700 $10,700 0.94 34.0 0.8 32.1 5.9 21.3% -0.9% 6
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,300 $5,200 $8,600 0.77 31.7 2.4 24.3 -2.5 12.9% 0.3% 1
Marvin Williams $4,700 $4,700 $8,200 0.76 28.6 -1.6 21.9 -5.8 18.8% 1.7% 6
Roy Hibbert $3,500 $3,100 $7,600 0.82 15.5 -0.4 12.7 -4.5 16.4% -2.6% 1
Frank Kaminsky $4,300 $4,400 $7,300 0.85 24.1 3.6 20.4 7.1 21.8% 0.2% 6

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker

Houston Rockets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Detroit Pistons
houstonnba Vegas Total 206.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- -2.4 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 25 8 6 8 25 2016-17 13 13 23 25 11

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are 8-5 on the season, thanks to some stellar play by James Harden. The return of Patrick Beverley could prove critical for this team, as they now have someone to defend the opposing point guard. Beverley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA and with Harden playing point guard, they can use Beverley as a spot up shooter, which is something that he is more than capable of doing. The Rockets draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The tough matchup is shown their implied team total, as it is 5.1 points below their average points scored per game on the season.

Even though tonight’s matchup isn’t ideal, the spread for the game is low. The Rockets’ starters and role players should all see their typical allotment of minutes, which is really all we need to know when it comes to James Harden. He has shown time and time again that he is matchup-proof, especially in a Mike D’Antoni offense. Many were concerned about Harden’s usage with Beverley back, but his true usage in the last three games is only 0.1% lower than his season average. If anything, it’s going to help Harden, as he no longer has to defend the opposing team’s point guard. Beverley has played well in his first two starts and should see 30+ minutes per game moving forward. While he’s a decent value play, I’m going to wait for a better matchup. Trevor Ariza is always in that secondary tier of small forwards and is a viable play if you are down to that position that need someone at his price point. Clint Capela is finally starting to play more minutes and his production has sky-rocketed. I’m a little worried about foul trouble against Andre Drummond, but the Pistons are ranked 25th against centers. Capela is an elite GPP play tonight, even at his elevated price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Patrick Beverley $4,600 $4,500 $8,400 0.84 25.7 0.0 21.6 0.0 16.2% 0.0% 25
James Harden $11,700 $11,900 $15,800 1.49 36.7 -2.3 54.5 -1.8 39.2% -0.1% 8
Trevor Ariza $5,200 $5,500 $9,300 0.74 33.7 -1.4 25.0 -1.6 14.5% -2.3% 6
Ryan Anderson $4,700 $4,900 $9,000 0.64 32.2 0.6 20.5 -3.9 17.0% -2.8% 8
Clint Capela $5,500 $5,900 $8,700 1.06 24.5 3.8 26.1 8.1 18.7% 2.5% 25
Eric Gordon $5,500 $5,100 $9,200 0.79 32.0 0.9 25.2 4.7 22.3% 3.6% 8

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela (FD)

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela (DK)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have lost three in a row and seven of their last ten games. They are hoping that some home cooking can right the ship. Their biggest struggle has been on the offensive end of the floor, as they are ranked 25th in points scored per game. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets, although Houston isn’t quite as bad as you would expect. On the season, they are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 17th in fantasy points allowed per game. I generally like to trust Vegas in these situations and based on the line, the Pistons are projected to score 102 points tonight, which is 5.1 points above their season average.

Targeting point guards against the Rockets seemed to be an auto-play in the early part of the season, but with Patrick Beverley back in the mix, it may become an auto-fade. He has been one of the best point guard defenders in the last few seasons and I fully expect the Rockets to be ranked inside the top ten in fantasy points allowed to the position here shortly. Ish Smith has been a viable value play so far, but I’ll pass on him tonight in this matchup. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope draws the worst matchup possible on one end of the floor and the best matchup possible on the other end. If he can stay out of foul trouble against James Harden, he should have a big game on the offensive end of the floor. KCP is an elite tournament play and I don’t mind using him in cash games. His last four meetings against Harden have resulted in outings of 48, 12, 15, and 33 fantasy points. Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris are both fine mid-range options that should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight. Andre Drummond makes a lot of sense in tournaments, but if I’m paying up at center, I am going all the way up to Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ish Smith $5,400 $5,600 $8,300 0.82 29.8 0.6 24.5 2.3 24.0% -4.2% 13
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,300 $8,400 0.67 33.0 -1.9 22.0 -1.6 19.3% 1.9% 13
Marcus Morris $5,200 $5,200 $8,600 0.75 32.1 1.6 24.1 -2.3 20.2% -3.2% 23
Tobias Harris $5,800 $6,300 $9,300 0.78 33.4 0.4 26.2 -3.2 21.9% -1.8% 25
Andre Drummond $8,100 $7,800 $12,400 1.19 29.9 -0.9 35.5 -5.2 23.3% 1.5% 11
Jon Leuer $4,500 $4,900 $7,100 0.84 26.1 -2.6 21.9 0.5 17.4% 4.4% 25

Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond, Jon Leuer

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious