NBA Grind Down: Monday, October 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-24 01:09:47

Jump to Page 1 2

%{color:blue}*NEW: Each Monday through Friday, Notorious will provide a Grind Down update video for Premium subscribers, which will be featured in our new CourtReport LiveBlog. Get updated analysis from one of the best in DFS (much closer to lineup lock), by starting a FREE 7-day trial today!

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		109.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.9					Pace Projection +/-		4.3
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent DRPM	-2.98	-1.13	0.19	-0.53	1.37		Opponent DRPM		-0.47	-1.80	4.38	2.30

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

None

The Sixers have been such a fun team to watch in their first few games. The only hope is that they stay healthy enough that we can truly watch this young team develop. We typically don’t think of a matchup against the Pistons as an exploitable one, but Detroit is ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. This will be a slight bump down for the Sixers in terms of pace, but they still have a respectable implied total of 105.5 points.

Ben Simmons is a matchup nightmare for opponents. There aren’t many 6’10” point guards laying around. Very few teams have athletic enough defenders to actually make it tough on Simmons. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in two of his first three NBA games and he is averaging 35 minutes. Two weeks from now, we are going to look back and say, “I can’t believe Simmons was only $8,000 on FanDuel and $7,700 on DraftKings.” I will continue to load up on Simmons in tournaments and may even consider him in cash games.

The rest of the Sixers are tougher sells. Jerryd Bayless is playing minutes in the upper 20s, but he has the lowest usage rate of the five starters and is basically a spot-up shooter in this offense. The same can be said for J.J. Redick, who is only averaging 0.67 FP/min this season. Robert Covington is extremely volatile due to his hot and cold shooting from beyond the arc. There are times when he can’t miss and times when it looks like he’s never taken a three-pointer. Joel Embiid is certainly viable, but it’s hard for him to truly exceed value when he’s only playing 26-28 minutes per game. He’s one of the most productive players in the NBA on a per-minute basis, but the price is a little steep across the industry.

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Joel Embiid

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Reggie Bullock (Out)

The Pistons have been one of the most frustrating teams in the NBA through three games, at least from a DFS perspective. Much to my dismay, Avery Bradley and Andre Drummond have started the season ice cold. Bradley can’t seem to buy a bucket, while Drummond is committing more fouls than the old man with the headband playing at your local recreation center. Detroit draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked in the bottom eight in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Philadelphia is also playing at the sixth-fastest pace, so the Pistons should see a few extra possessions in this one.

After an excellent preseason, it looked like Ish Smith had worked himself into a timeshare with Reggie Jackson. After three games, it looks like Jackson is going to play 28-30 minutes, while Smith will pick up the rest. This may not be a rotation that we can count on though, as Jackson has been playing some great basketball early on, averaging 36 fantasy points in his first three contests. If and when he eventually starts to struggle, we could see Smith take on a larger role. For now, Jackson is the man to own in this backcourt. He’s viable in tournaments tonight at what should be sub-15% ownership.

Fool me once, shame on you Avery Bradley. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, call me a fish. I really don’t want to go back to the well for a fourth time, but Bradley is a much better player than we have seen in the first three games. The minutes have been there, the usage has been decent (19%), he just hasn’t been able to produce. The crazy part is that he has played terribly and he has still scored at least 17 fantasy points in every game. In a pace up matchup against the Sixers, I have no choice but to play him in tournaments. I’m pot-committed at this point. Unlike Stanley Johnson, Bradley actually has per-minute fantasy point upside.

Tobias Harris is a volatile big that may draw the defense of Robert Covington. Last season, Covington had one of the best defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades in the NBA at 4.38. You will hear a lot of talk about Andre Drummond success against the Sixers (45+ fantasy points in three straight games), but he has never faced Joel Embiid. It’s not that we can’t play Drummond, who has good splits at home throughout his career, we just shouldn’t use his past results against the Sixers as the primary reason to roster him. Jon Leuer is an intriguing GPP flier off the bench. He’s been quiet this season, but is averaging 24 minutes per game.

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 116.7 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.4 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.9 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson, Avery Bradley (Cash), Andre Drummond, Jon Leuer (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		205.0					Vegas Total		205.0
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		97.0					Implied Team Total		108.0
			Pace Projection +/-		3.1					Pace Projection +/-		2.0
Projected Starters	Malcolm Delaney	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Jordan Mickey
Opponent DRPM	-1.61	-0.06	-0.16	1.72	0.11		Opponent DRPM	-0.42	-1.09	2.66	N/A	4.86

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Dennis Schroder (Out)
Ersan Ilyasova (Out)

The Hawks picked up a nice win in their opener against the Mavericks, but have followed it up with two consecutive losses. The hits keep coming, as Dennis Schroder went down with an ankle injury. He is scheduled for an MRI today and is listed as out for tonight’s game against the Heat. Last season, the Heat were one of the worst matchups for fantasy production. They played at a slow pace and were very good in the halfcourt. This season, they are ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. I still expect Miami to have a decent defense, but they might not be as dominant as they were a year ago.

With Dennis Schroder on the shelf, Malcolm Delaney is going to draw the start at point guard. As I talk about in my new RotoAcademy course, there are times to eat the chalk and times to fade the chalk. When a starting point guard goes down and we can realistically project his backup to play 30+ minutes at close to minimum salary, this is a time to eat the chalk. Delaney will be extremely popular, but for good reason. Dollar for dollar, he is the best play of the slate.

Schroder’s absence will also lead to more usage for Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince in this offense. They’ve both played fairly well this season, although we’d like to see their minutes in the 30s, rather than the high 20s. I’m not using Bazemore or Prince as core plays tonight, but they are viable secondary plays. John Collins could draw the start for the injured Ersan Ilyasova tonight. If so, he makes an intriguing play at power forward. He is averaging 1.21 FP/min this season and the fact that he’s not priced at minimum salary will help keep his ownership low. Ilyasova’s absence could also open the door for Marco Belinelli, who has really played well so far this season.

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.0 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.7 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Malcolm Delaney, John Collins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, John Collins (Cash), Marco Belinelli

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Hassan Whiteside (Out)

The Heat have won and lost a game to start the season. They draw a favorable matchup against the Hawks at home, although this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. Even with Hassan Whiteside ruled out, the Heat are still listed as 11-point favorites. The Hawks haven’t been anything special on the defensive end of the floor, ranking 16th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat have an implied total of 108 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate.

Whiteside not only soaks up heavy minutes in the frontcourt, but he also has a heavy usage in the offense and is a monster when it comes to peripheral stats (rebounds, blocks, and steals). His absence opens up a number of plays for the Heat. Goran Dragic is a reliable cash game option with a high floor and a relatively high ceiling. He leads the starters in usage and we know that point guards against the Hawks have had a lot of success in the past two seasons. A large part of that is thanks to the “defense” of Dennis Schroder, but it’s not like Malcolm Delaney is a great defender.

Dion Waiters is a player that nobody uses in DFS. I’m not sure what the reason is, but it always feels gross playing $5,500+ for him in big slates. He’s always worth a look in tournaments, especially if you can train yourself to get over the gag reflex when you click the “add” button next to his name. While Waiters is fine in tournaments, Josh Richardson is viable in all formats. He’s a little expensive on FanDuel, but his ability to rack up steals and blocks helps. On DraftKings, $4,800 is cheap enough to consider him an elite play. I would like to see Richardson be a little more involved offensively (11% usage rate), but we can lock him into 35+ minutes tonight.

As far as the frontcourt goes, there are two plays that I am locking into both cash game and tournament lineups. James Johnson has been a point-per-minute producer in the last few seasons and should be locked into 30+ minutes with Whiteside out. His price is more than reasonable across the industry. Kelly Olynyk may not draw the start, but that’s not a concern. In Whiteside’s absence the other night, Olynyk played 27 minutes and scored 37 fantasy points. He also has a higher usage rate when playing with the second unit, which never hurts.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.0 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.6 (12 of 30)

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (Cash), Josh Richardson (DK), James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Josh Richardson (FD & FDRFT), Dion Waiters (GPP)

Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		203.5					Vegas Total		203.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		98.5					Implied Team Total		105.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-4.0					Pace Projection +/-		1.8
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Jeremy Lamb	Dwayne Bacon	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Matthew Dellavedova	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Thon Maker
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-1.41	-0.79	0.54	1.49	-0.53		Opponent DRPM	-1.14	-0.88		-0.13	2.92

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out)
Cody Zeller (Out)
Michael Carter-Williams (Out)
Nicolas Batum (Out)

The Hornets have had some serious home/road splits in the last few seasons and it looks like it could be a factor again this year. They won their first game at home and lost their first game on the road. Tonight they travel to Milwaukee to take on a slow-paced Bucks’ team that has struggled on the defensive end of the floor. With all of the length and athleticism in Milwaukee’s lineup, I expect them to be a top ten defense when all is said and done, but they are currently ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebounding differential.

The only team with a lower implied total than the Hornets tonight is the Hawks. Anytime you are in the same group as the Hawks when referring to something on the offensive end of the floor, that’s not a good thing. Kemba Walker home/road splits weren’t as drastic last season, but I’m not particularly excited about his matchups against Matthew Dellavedova, Tony Snell, and potentially Giannis Antetokounmpo. There are plenty of point guards that I’d rather target in this slate.

The injuries to the Hornets’ wing and frontcourt players have opened up big minutes for Jeremy Lamb and Frank Kaminsky. Lamb is averaging 33 minutes per game and historically has averaged just under a fantasy point per minute. He hasn’t been as efficient this season, but his price is reasonable and he has one of the best matchups of the five starters. Kaminsky may not be a starter in name, but he is playing starter’s minutes. In three games, he is averaging 28 minutes and 23 fantasy points per contest. Dwight Howard seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder and is underpriced on DraftKings at $6,700. He has nice upside against a Bucks’ team that has the sixth worst rebounding differential this season.

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.7 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb (FD), Dwight Howard (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb (DK & FDRFT), Frank Kaminsky, Dwight Howard (FD & FDRFT)

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Malcolm Brogdon (Out)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 92.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 9.5 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (13 of 30)

The Bucks are a fun team to watch. Giannis Antetokounmpo accounts for 99% of that, but hey, at least we are talking about the Bucks on a regular basis. They are 2-1 to start the year and have a good chance to add another win to their resume tonight. Milwaukee is listed as a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Hornets. Charlotte played better defense at home than they did on the road a year ago, but this is not a team that we want to regularly target players against. They play at a slow pace and are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

At this point, I’m jamming Antetokounmpo into my lineups any time we have a slate with some value in it. With some of the cheap fill-in options available tonight, it’s incredibly easy to lock Giannis into cash games and even into tournaments. He doesn’t have a weakness in his game right now. He has a massive 31% usage rate and he’s one of the best in the NBA when it comes to peripheral stats. He is currently averaging 1.69 FP/min, which is second only to DeMarcus Cousins this season.

Malcolm Brogdon has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which likely means a start for Matthew Dellavedova. He isn’t the most productive player on a per-minute basis, but should play around 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against against Kemba Walker, who had a DRPM of -1.14 last season. Dellavedova is basically free across the industry, so he isn’t going to hurt your lineups even if he plays poorly. Brogdon’s absence could result in a slight usage bump to Khris Middleton, who feels a little too cheap on DraftKings ($6,100). The rest of the Bucks can be avoided in a pace-down game against Charlotte.

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton (DK)

Secondary Plays – Matthew Dellavedova, Khris Middleton (FD & FDRFT)

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		7.5					Vegas Spread		-7.5
			Implied Team Total		102.5					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.3					Pace Projection +/-		-3.0
Projected Starters	Mike Conley	Andrew Harrison	James Ennis	Jarell Martin	Marc Gasol		Projected Starters	Eric Gordon	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-0.13	-1.81	1.54	-0.16	1.25		Opponent DRPM	-0.50	0.17	1.40	1.38	0.84

Memphis Grizzlies

Notable Injuries

Wayne Selden (Out)
Tyreke Evans (Questionable)

The Grizzlies are coming off of a big win against the Warriors. There was talk about Memphis playing at a faster pace this season, but so far, it’s been the same old recipe. They currently have the ninth lowest pace of play and have allowed the sixth fewest points per game. The good news is that the Grizzlies have no choice but to play at a faster tempo tonight. The Rockets will end up being one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, even if the numbers don’t currently show it. Memphis comes into the game as a 7.5-point underdog with an implied total of 212.5 points.

Mike Conley should be smiling from ear to ear. Instead of locking horns with Chris Paul, he’ll get to square off against Eric Gordon and/or James Harden. These are two matchups that Conley should absolutely crush. His salary seems a bit pricey across the industry, which should help keep his ownership at a reasonable level. It’s still early, but Conley is one of my favorite under-the-radar plays tonight. The Grizzlies basically have a two-man offense and Marc Gasol draws a much tougher individual matchup against Clint Capela. Speaking of Gasol, he’s coming off of a monster 34-point, 14-rebound outing against the Warriors. With the price bump, the potential ownership bump, and the poor matchup, I’ll be looking elsewhere at center.

With JaMychal Green out, the Grizzlies have played more small ball than they have in the last few seasons combined. Mario Chalmers, Dillon Brooks, and Tyreke Evans have all been playing big minutes off the bench. They are certainly the preferred fantasy targets over the three starters: Andrew Harrison, James Ennis, and Jarrell Martin. Even if this game turns into a blowout (which I’m not expecting), Brooks should be locked into 30+ minutes. He has really surprised so far this season and his price has yet to reflect the production.

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.7 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, Dillon Brooks

Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol, Mario Chalmers (DK), Tyreke Evans

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Chris Paul (Out)
Ryan Anderson (Questionable)

Even though the Rockets lost their starting point guard, they are one of six teams that remains undefeated here in the early part of the season. This isn’t like the Clippers losing Paul for an extended period because the Rockets have played without him forever. They are more than equipped to keep the ship afloat until he gets back. Houston draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Grizzlies, but the game is being played in Houston and I generally favor the pace of the home team. This will still be a pace-down game for the Rockets, but their implied total of 110 points is the third-highest of the slate.

With Paul out, James Harden is back to being the primary ball-handler in this offense. He currently has a 30% usage rate, which is one of the highest in the entire NBA. The Grizzlies no longer have elite wing defenders, so we can confidently fire up Harden as an elite play in all formats. The Rockets go as Harden goes and it’s only a matter of time before he has a breakout game. Eric Gordon has a massive 29% usage rate this season and is locked into 30+ minutes a night as long as Paul is out. It feels like a lot to pay for a player that relies so much on scoring for hsi fantasy production, but he’s an excellent play as long as he remains the second option on offense.

Trevor Ariza is going to play big minutes, but I hate relying on players that need blocks, steals, and three pointers to reach value. Ariza has one of the lowest usage rates of any starter in basketball (10%) and he’s going to be volatile game to game. For now, I would only use him in tournaments. Ryan Anderson is listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, we could see P.J. Tucker thrust into a big role. I love targeting Clint Capela against teams that have a true center. While the Grizzlies fit the bill, Marc Gasol is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Capela has only topped 30 fantasy points one time in his last five games against Gasol.

Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Points Allowed Per Game: 96.0 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.1 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza (DK GPP), P.J. Tucker

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		-11.0					Vegas Spread		11.0
			Implied Team Total		112.0					Implied Team Total		101.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-5.8					Pace Projection +/-		2.1
Projected Starters	Stephen Curry	Klay Thompson	Kevin Durant	Draymond Green	Zaza Pachulia		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Wesley Matthews	Dorian Finney-Smith	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM		0.25	-0.17	-0.08	0.81		Opponent DRPM	0.24	-0.91	1.35	5.08	3.61

Golden State Warriors

Notable Injuries

Stephen Curry (possible suspension)

The Warriors haven’t had the start they were anticipating and it is clearly starting to frustrate some of their players. We rarely see Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant get that heated at an official and both were thrown out against the Grizzlies. Curry is facing a possible suspension, although I’d expect the league to hit him with a hefty fine and move on. Tonight the Warriors will look to get back to .500 with a win over the Mavericks. This is a pace-down game for Golden State, but they will still control the pace because that’s what they always do. Their implied total of 112 points is second only to the Nuggets.

For our purposes, I am going to assume that Curry is active tonight. If he ends up being ruled out, I will give my thoughts on it in the Grind Down video update in the new CourtReport Live Blog that is available for premium members. If Curry plays, we can fire him up against rookie Dennis Smith, who has been nursing an ankle injury. Call me crazy, but having to face Curry probably isn’t the best medicine for a turned ankle. Curry is only $8,700 on DraftKings and his ownership could be deflated thanks to the uncertainty surrounding his potential suspension. Klay Thompson has been red-hot to start the season, yet he is only averaging 34 fantasy points per game. It’s hard to pay up for Thompson in cash games because he relies so heavily on scoring for his fantasy production. When his shot is off, he doesn’t have the peripheral stats to make up for it. He’ll also be defended by Wesley Matthews, who has been an above-average defender for many years.

I’m not prioritizing Kevin Durant when building cash game lineups tonight because my two favorite studs are Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden. Durant does make an interesting pivot in tournaments, but the other two are the focal points of their respective offenses, while the Warriors have four players that can take over a game. Draymond Greens feels a bit too cheap against a Mavericks’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential. This feels like one of those games where he ends up with 40+ fantasy points even though he only scores ten actual points.

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -14.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson (GPP), Kevin Durant (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Dennis Smith (Probable)

The Mavericks are still looking for their first win of the season. Something tells me that it’s not going to come tonight against a heated Warriors’ team. Despite playing at home, Dallas is listed as an 11-point underdog with an implied total of only 101 points. Luckily, this is a pace-up game for the Mavericks, so there should be plenty of fantasy scoring if they can keep the game close. The problem is that Rick Carlisle is a veteran coach that will sit his veteran players the moment he feels like the game is out of hand.

Dennis Smith is expected to return to the lineup, after missing two games with an ankle injury. He played great in his NBA debut, scoring 16 points and handing out ten assists in 29 minutes of action. Assuming the ankle holds up, he should see around 30 minutes tonight against a Warriors’ defense that has allowed the fifth most points per game. While I’m a big fan of Smith and will be using a lot of him this season, I want to see if his ankle is good to go before using him as a core play.

Wesley Matthews has some upside tonight, but all of the veteran players for the Mavericks have some risk attached to them. If the game stays close, Matthews will play minutes in the mid 30s. If the game gets out of hand, there’s a good chance that he’ll be on the bench for the entire fourth quarter. The same can be said for Harrison Barnes, who has the revenge narrative in his corner. In three games against his former team last year, Barnes scored 37, 37, and 15 fantasy points. J.J. Barea and Dirk Nowitzki are both intriguing GPP fliers, but their minutes could be limited as well. Basically, if you think the Mavericks can keep this game close, there are four or five viable options here. If you think the Warriors come out and stomp Dallas, it’s a spot to avoid.

Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors

Points Allowed Per Game: 117.7 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.5 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.7 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki, J.J. Barea

Jump to Page 1 2