NBA Grind Down: Monday, October 31st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Sacramento Kings at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
Sacramento Kings | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 201.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 97.3 | Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
Pace of Play | 95.90 | Pace of Play | 103.90 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Rudy Gay | DeMarcus Cousins | Kosta Koufos | Proj. Starter | Dennis Schroder | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Dwight Howard | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 2016-17 | 1 | 18 | 22 | 14 | 12 |
Sacramento Kings
Happy Halloween everyone!
The Kings are off to a nice start this season, posting a 2-1 record with their only loss coming against the Spurs. DeMarcus Cousins has been his usual dominant and eccentric self, averaging 44.6 fantasy points per contest. Rudy Gay has been, dare I say, reliable in the first three games of the season and Ty Lawson has given Sacramento some solid minutes filling in for the suspended Darren Collison. Outside of those three, there hasn’t been a lot of fantasy production to go around. Matt Barnes has been the best bench player, averaging 27.2 minutes and 21.3 fantasy points per game.
The Kings draw a difficult matchup tonight, as they head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. They come into the game as 7-point underdogs with the over/under set at 201.5 points. The Kings have an implied point total of only 97.3 points, which is the lowest in this four game slate. Ty Lawson remains a solid value at point guard. Despite averaging 35 minutes per game this season, his price hasn’t budged on FanDuel or DraftKings. Rudy Gay is an intriguing small forward target on DraftKings, but I still have a hard time trusting him on a nightly basis. In his last two meetings with Dwight Howard, Cousins has only averaged 36.4 fantasy points per game. He is still an elite option at center, but Howard is one of the best low post defenders in basketball when he’s motivated.
- Injury Watch:
Darren Collison (Suspended)
- Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -7.1 (7 of 8)
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 85.5 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 80.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 10.0 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 176.2 (3 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ty Lawson | PG | $5,100 | PG | $5,600 | PG | $8,100 | 35 | 25.8 | 0.74 | 31.5% | 19 |
Arron Afflalo | SG | $3,700 | SG | $3,700 | SG | $7,900 | 30.7 | 12.9 | 0.42 | 25.0% | 2 |
Rudy Gay | SF | $7,300 | SF | $6,300 | SF | $9,900 | 32.9 | 36.4 | 1.11 | 27.9% | 5 |
DeMarcus Cousins | C | $9,900 | PF/C | $10,800 | PF | $14,800 | 31.5 | 44.6 | 1.42 | 43.4% | 8 |
Kosta Koufos | C | $3,500 | C | $3,100 | C | $8,700 | 18.9 | 12.7 | 0.67 | 18.8% | 8 |
Matt Barnes | SF | $4,300 | SF | $3,800 | SF | $8,100 | 27.2 | 21.3 | 0.78 | 24.9% | 5 |
Elite Plays – Ty Lawson, DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Plays – Rudy Gay
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks are 2-0 to start the season, beating their two opponents by an average of 24 points. They don’t appear to be missing Jeff Teague and Al Horford, but we are obviously dealing with a small sample size. Dennis Schroder hasn’t lived up to expectations thus far, but I expect him to be priced above $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings here in the next couple of weeks. After dominating in the opener against the Wizards, Dwight Howard got into early foul trouble against the Sixers and wasn’t able to crack the 20-fantasy point mark. He appears to be motivated this season, which has always been an issue for Howard.
The Hawks come into tonight’s game as 7-point favorites against the Kings, who have been one of the best teams to target players against in the last few seasons. If you look at their statistics from a year ago, the Kings were ranked in the bottom five in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the fourth highest of the eight teams in this slate. This is an exploitable matchup for basically every position, with the exception of center. DeMarcus Cousins is a good low post defender and he is one of the best in the NBA at drawing fouls. I would only consider Dwight Howard in tournaments, as he does carry quite a bit of risk in this matchup. Dennis Schroder may be my favorite play in the entire slate. He averaged a fantasy point per minute last season and his minutes are finally solidified with Jeff Teague in Indiana. Paul Millsap is always a viable cash game target. Assuming Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins match up, that leaves Millsap against Kosta Koufos. I like his chances on the offensive end with that matchup. Kyle Korver and Kent Bazemore are both secondary options on the wing.
- Injury Watch:
Tiago Splitter (Out)
Mike Scott (Questionable)
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 109.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 104.3 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (5 of 8)
- Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 190.3 (12 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dennis Schroder | PG | $6,300 | PG | $6,600 | PG | $10,400 | 26.4 | 24.3 | 0.92 | 50.3% | 1 |
Kyle Korver | SG | $3,800 | SG | $3,700 | SG | $8,000 | 23 | 19.3 | 0.84 | 19.4% | 18 |
Kent Bazemore | SF | $4,800 | SG/SF | $4,900 | SF | $9,200 | 24.8 | 12.5 | 0.50 | 27.1% | 22 |
Paul Millsap | PF | $8,100 | PF | $7,900 | PF | $13,500 | 29 | 36.6 | 1.26 | 33.4% | 14 |
Dwight Howard | C | $7,800 | C | $7,500 | C | $11,200 | 24.7 | 29.4 | 1.19 | 22.1% | 12 |
Tim Hardaway Jr. | SG | $3,600 | PG/SG | $3,500 | SG | $6,000 | 20.9 | 19.5 | 0.93 | 22.5% | 18 |
Mike Muscala | PF | $4,200 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,000 | 23.6 | 27.2 | 1.15 | 22.2% | 14 |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard, Kent Bazemore, Kyle Korver, Mike Muscala
Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
Denver Nuggets | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 204.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 98.5 | Team Total | 105.5 | |||||||||
Pace of Play | 108.70 | Pace of Play | 98.00 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Will Barton | Danilo Gallinari | Nikola Jokic | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Pascal Siakam | Jonas Valanciunas | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 5 | 2016-17 | 29 | 25 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
Denver Nuggets
The sample size is small, but the Nuggets look like a team that is capable of making the playoffs this season. They have a lot of young talent and if their frontcourt is able to stay healthy (mainly Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic), they could really make some noise this year. The two big men are both averaging well over a fantasy point per minute (Jokic 1.23/min, Nurkic 1.31/min) and Denver has gotten solid production from their starting backcourt duo of Emmanuel Mudiay and Will Barton. Gary Harris and Darrell Arthur have yet to suit up this season.
The Nuggets draw one of the most difficult matchups in all of basketball. The Raptors should be a top five defensive team again this season and they are extremely tough to beat on their home floor. The Nuggets come into the game as 7-point underdogs with an implied total of only 98.5 points. If you compare that to their season average of 110 points, there is a drastic difference. The Raptors were ranked above the league average in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor last season and it’s hard to spot any favorable matchups tonight. Kyle Lowry could force Emmanuel Mudiay into some turnovers here and Danilo Gallinari will have DeMarre Carroll matched up against him. It sounds like Gary Harris is going to miss tonight’s game, which means extended minutes for Will Barton. Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic are both intriguing tournament options, but the Raptors are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA.
- Injury Watch:
Gary Harris (Out)
Darrell Arthur (Questionable)
- Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.0 (3 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -11.5 (8 of 8)
- Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 92.5 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 11.0 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 172.3 (1 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emmanuel Mudiay | PG | $5,900 | PG | $5,800 | PG | $8,300 | 33.2 | 28.2 | 0.85 | 41.8% | 8 |
Will Barton | SG | $5,300 | SG/SF | $5,700 | SG | $8,300 | 37.9 | 28.9 | 0.76 | 31.8% | 1 |
Danilo Gallinari | SF | $6,900 | SF | $6,000 | SF | $11,200 | 39.6 | 26.3 | 0.66 | 29.4% | 10 |
Nikola Jokic | PF | $6,100 | PF/C | $7,000 | PF | $9,600 | 27.6 | 33.9 | 1.23 | 29.2% | 23 |
Jusuf Nurkic | C | $5,200 | C | $6,100 | C | $9,500 | 24.3 | 31.8 | 1.31 | 35.3% | 5 |
Kenneth Faried | PF | $5,500 | PF | $4,700 | PF | $8,300 | 29.3 | 28.6 | 0.97 | 24.9% | 23 |
Wilson Chandler | SF | $4,900 | SF | $4,200 | SF | $8,200 | 30.2 | 18.9 | 0.63 | 10 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Will Barton, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Wilson Chandler
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are 1-1 to start their season, after beating the Pistons and then losing to the Cavaliers (a trend that they’d like to put a stop to this season). They are one of the most talented teams in the Eastern Conference and I fully expect them to be a top three seed when the playoffs start. With the exception of Pascal Siakam, the starters have been playing big minutes for Toronto. We typically expect this out of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and DeMarre Carroll, but we have never seen Jonas Valanciunas see these type of minutes. He has never averaged more than 28.2 minutes in his career and he has played 31 and 35 in their first two games of the season. Expect more of the same for Valanciunas as long as Lucas Nogueira is out.
The Raptors draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who have allowed 108.5 points per game so far this season. Toronto is listed as a 7-point favorite tonight at home with an implied total of 105.5 points. Assuming this game stays close, the Raptors should be one of the top teams to target in this short slate. If you look at the DvP chart from last season, the Nuggets weren’t particularly effective at defending any position on the floor. Kyle Lowry is off to a slow start this season, but he hasn’t had a great matchup yet. This could be a great time to buy low in terms of both salary and ownership. DeMar DeRozan has been on fire in the first two games, averaging 36 actual points per game. He sees a boost tonight with Gary Harris out, as Will Barton is not nearly as good of a defender. DeMarre Carroll is one of my favorite small forward plays in this slate. He should give us 32-35 minutes in an uptempo game. He is a bargain on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Rosters. And finally, we have Jonas Valanciunas. If he continues to play 33 minutes per game moving forward, it won’t be long until he is priced in the $7,500 range.
- Injury Watch:
Jared Sullinger (Out)
Delon Wright (Out)
Lucas Nogueira (Out)
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.0 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 5.5 (2 of 8)
- Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.3 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 20.5 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 222.4 (23 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Lowry | PG | $7,400 | PG | $7,400 | PG | $11,500 | 38.6 | 23.7 | 0.61 | 41.5% | 29 |
DeMar DeRozan | SG | $7,900 | SG | $7,300 | SG | $10,700 | 36.4 | 43.4 | 1.19 | 40.6% | 25 |
DeMarre Carroll | SF | $4,600 | SF/PF | $4,500 | SF | $7,800 | 32.9 | 23.1 | 0.70 | 20.9% | 1 |
Pascal Siakam | PF | $3,700 | PF | $3,300 | PF | $7,200 | 18.3 | 12.2 | 0.67 | 29 | |
Jonas Valanciunas | C | $6,400 | C | $6,700 | C | $10,300 | 33.1 | 37.6 | 1.13 | 23.1% | 1 |
Patrick Patterson | PF | $3,600 | PF | $3,500 | PF | $7,600 | 30.2 | 15.0 | 0.50 | 17.7% | 29 |
Terrence Ross | SF | $3,500 | SG/SF | $3,000 | SG | $6,600 | 16.4 | 10.9 | 0.66 | 22.5% | 1 |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (Cash), Patrick Patterson
Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
Chicago Bulls | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 212.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 212.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 109.0 | Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
Pace of Play | 96.50 | Pace of Play | 103.90 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Rajon Rondo | Jimmy Butler | Dwyane Wade | Taj Gibson | Robin Lopez | Proj. Starter | Jeremy Lin | Bojan Bogdanovic | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Trevor Booker | Brook Lopez | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 22 | 26 | 28 | 23 | 25 | 2016-17 | 16 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 19 |
Chicago Bulls
Perhaps we were a bit too quick to judge. Perhaps we were right and the small sample is hiding the potential problems. At this point, I’m not making any conclusive statements about the Bulls. They have been sharp in their first two games of the season. They are 2-0 and they are averaging more points per game (111.5) than any team in the NBA. Our biggest concern heading into the season was spacing and three point shooting, but the Bulls are 43.5% from behind the three-point line so far. Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, and Jimmy Butler have all had enough usage and shot attempts to keep everyone happy and having two pass-first big men helps accomplish that. They are still a work in progress, but maybe this is actually going to work out. Keep in mind that Vegas had their win projection at 38.5, which basically puts them out of the playoffs.
The Bulls draw one of the easier matchups on an NBA schedule, as they take on the Nets in Brooklyn. This should be a pace-up game for the Bulls and an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. Chicago is listed as a 6-point favorite with an implied total of 109 points, which is the highest in the slate. It’s actually a good sign that the game is being played in Brooklyn, as there is less concern for a blowout. If this game stays close, we could see a number of Bulls’ players reach and exceed value. Rajon Rondo is still a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $6,400 on DraftKings. Dwyane Wade isn’t going to play more than 30-32 minutes, but should be very productive while on the floor. He basically needs 32-35 fantasy points to meet value, which is certainly in his range of potential outcomes. Jimmy Butler could have a breakout game in this spot. I’m not concerned about a matchup against Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Taj Gibson is one of my favorite cash game targets at power forward. We basically know what we can expect from him and he’ll have a sizable height advantage over Trevor Booker. Robin Lopez gets to face his twin brother tonight. Brook has gotten the better of this brotherly matchup in the past, but both should have a little extra motivation to play well.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 111.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (3 of 8)
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 227.2 (29 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rajon Rondo | PG | $7,300 | PG | $6,400 | PG | $10,900 | 29.2 | 26.9 | 0.92 | 46.8% | 22 |
Jimmy Butler | SF | $8,000 | SG/SF | $7,600 | SG | $12,400 | 31.3 | 34.7 | 1.11 | 36.8% | 28 |
Dwyane Wade | SG | $6,900 | SG | $6,500 | SG | $10,300 | 26.7 | 31.4 | 1.17 | 45.5% | 26 |
Taj Gibson | PF | $5,400 | PF/C | $5,100 | PF | $8,700 | 26.4 | 27.3 | 1.03 | 19.8% | 23 |
Robin Lopez | C | $5,300 | C | $4,700 | C | $9,400 | 23.1 | 22.2 | 0.96 | 23.3% | 25 |
Nikola Mirotic | PF | $4,900 | PF | $4,700 | PF | $8,300 | 27.5 | 20.5 | 0.74 | 27.1% | 23 |
Doug McDermott | SF | $3,800 | SF | $3,500 | SF | $6,900 | 24.2 | 21.0 | 0.87 | 20.1% | 28 |
Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson
Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (DK), Dwyane Wade, Robin Lopez (DK), Nikola Mirotic, Doug McDermott
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets could be one of the top teams to target players against this season. They are playing with a fast pace and they are giving up a lot of points – 108.7 per game. They are 1-2 to start the season and basically just don’t have the talent to compete on a nightly basis. While I’m as big of a Jeremy Lin fan as anyone, it’s usually not a good sign when he is the best player on your team. Brook Lopez has not been sharp in the early going and I’ll be waiting for his price to come down before targeting him in anything other than a tournament. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson still seems to be shaking off the rust from missing so much time. I had high hopes for him heading into the season.
The Nets come into tonight’s game as 6-point underdogs at home. Even though they don’t have the highest implied total (103 points), this is still a decent spot for fantasy production. Jeremy Lin has excelled as the Nets go-to player offensively. He is averaging 31.6 minutes and 34.7 fantasy points per game this season. He draws an excellent matchup tonight against Rajon Rondo, who hasn’t been an elite (or even average) defender in the last three seasons. Lin’s price should have come up across the industry, but we might as well take advantage while we can. Bojan Bogdanovic is going to have some big games this season. He is also going to put up some duds. He is a viable play at small forward, but just know the risks associated with taking a streaky shooter that doesn’t contribute much elsewhere on the stat sheet. Trevor Booker is averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute. I wish he was playing in the low 30’s in terms of minutes, but he is a solid option at power forward in this short slate. Brook Lopez is an intriguing GPP play against his twin brother. In their last four meetings, he has averaged 39.9 fantasy points.
- Injury Watch:
Greivis Vasquez (Questionable)
Randy Foye (Questionable)
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 109.3 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -6.3 (6 of 8)
- Chicago Bulls Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 16.5 (2 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.4 (16 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeremy Lin | PG | $6,500 | PG | $6,300 | PG | $9,300 | 31.6 | 34.7 | 1.10 | 33.8% | 16 |
Bojan Bogdanovic | SF | $4,300 | SG/SF | $4,600 | SG | $7,900 | 27.5 | 23.6 | 0.86 | 24.3% | 15 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | SF | $3,600 | SF | $3,900 | SG | $7,700 | 23.6 | 9.3 | 0.39 | 20.1% | 15 |
Trevor Booker | PF | $5,300 | PF | $4,700 | PF | $7,900 | 27.3 | 31.6 | 1.16 | 21.3% | 11 |
Brook Lopez | C | $7,600 | C | $6,900 | C | $12,300 | 23.6 | 20.3 | 0.86 | 33.6% | 19 |
Justin Hamilton | C | $4,900 | C | $4,000 | C | $6,000 | 27.9 | 24.0 | 0.86 | 19 | |
Sean Kilpatrick | SG | $4,000 | SG | $3,600 | SG | $6,000 | 23.8 | 21.9 | 0.92 | 16.4% | 6 |
Elite Plays – Jeremy Lin, Trevor Booker (DK)
Secondary Plays – Trevor Booker (FD), Brook Lopez, Bojan Bogdanovic, Sean Kilpatrick
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
Phoenix Suns | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 205.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.5 | Vegas Spread | -10.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 97.5 | Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
Pace of Play | 103.40 | Pace of Play | 104.20 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Jared Dudley | Tyson Chandler | Proj. Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent DvP Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016-17 | 13 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 2016-17 | 28 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 3 |
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have had a lot of talent the last few seasons, but they can’t seem to find a coach that can get consistent effort out of these guys. The Suns are 0-3 to start the season, losing by an average of 9.3 points per game. It’s one thing to lose, but when you aren’t even competitive, you start hurting the fantasy production of both teams. Don’t they know there are DFS players depending on them? The backcourt trio of Brandon Knight, Eric Bledsoe, and Devin Booker has not gelled in their first three games. It will be interesting to see if the Suns try to move Knight or Bledsoe if the team doesn’t start playing better. The team may also want to look at a starting frontcourt of Alex Len and Tyson Chandler.
The Suns come into tonight’s game as the biggest underdogs in the slate. The Clippers are favored by 10.5 points in a game that has the potential to turn into another blowout. The Suns have an implied total of only 97.5 points, which is the second lowest on the board. Even thought the Clippers like to push the tempo, they aren’t exactly what I would call a favorable matchup. They are currently ranked second in points allowed per game and 11th in rebounding differential. I typically like to target centers against the Clippers, but Tyson Chandler is getting up there in age. He’s a decent value on FanDuel and DraftKings, but I’m not sure I would consider him a safe cash game target. He will be one of the first to sit if the game turns into a blowout. Eric Bledsoe has the revenge narrative going for him in this matchup, but targeting point guards against Chris Paul is not ideal. Devin Booker is primed for a breakout game, but we have to factor in the potential blowout. T.J. Warren has been the Suns best player thus far, but his price has come up across the industry. I don’t want to chase those points in a difficult matchup on the road.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.5 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (4 of 8)
- Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 90.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 175.1 (2 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Bledsoe | PG | $7,400 | PG | $7,100 | PG | $11,800 | 34.3 | 34.6 | 1.01 | 44.2% | 13 |
Devin Booker | SG | $6,100 | SG | $6,200 | SG | $10,200 | 32.2 | 19.8 | 0.62 | 33.1% | 4 |
T.J. Warren | SF | $5,500 | SF | $5,400 | SF | $8,000 | 37.8 | 36.1 | 0.96 | 24.1% | 14 |
Jared Dudley | PF | $3,800 | PF | $3,600 | SF | $8,500 | 26 | 15.5 | 0.59 | 20.4% | 14 |
Tyson Chandler | C | $4,200 | C | $4,300 | C | $8,700 | 29.8 | 22.2 | 0.74 | 17.3% | 4 |
Brandon Knight | SG | $5,800 | PG/SG | $5,500 | PG | $9,200 | 29 | 18.7 | 0.64 | 39.2% | 4 |
Alex Len | C | $4,600 | C | $3,900 | C | $9,100 | 18.9 | 16.5 | 0.87 | 25.3% | 4 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Tyson Chandler
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers should win at least 50 games this season, assuming they stay relatively healthy. They are a team that can compete with anyone on any given night, they just haven’t been able to get the job done in the postseason. It’s basically been the same recipe for success this year – Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan dominating down low, Chris Paul being one of the best two-way point guards in the NBA, timely shooting from J.J. Redick, and solid bench play from Jamal Crawford.
The Clippers are the biggest favorites on the board tonight. As I talk about in my Guide to Beating NBA DFS, I prefer to target the favorites in a potential blowout. The reasoning is simple, if there is a blowout, player’s minutes are likely going to be reduced. In that case, we want exposure to the team that played well rather than the team that was blown out. Ideally, if we could predict every blowout, then we could avoid them altogether, but that’s tough to do. All four games on the schedule have a spread of at least six points, so it’s not like there is a safe game to target. The Clippers have the second highest implied total tonight and they draw an excellent matchup against the defensively-challenged Suns. Chris Paul price tag on DraftKings ($8,500) looks too good to be true. Blake Griffin has 50-fantasy point upside in this matchup and is officially on “triple-double watch” tonight. DeAndre Jordan is playable, although Tyson Chandler is typically tough on opposing centers. J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford are both viable punts at shooting guard. I slightly prefer Crawford, as he can create his own shot and sometimes gets garbage time in blowouts.
- Injury Watch:
Paul Pierce (Questionable)
DeAndre Jordan (Probable)
- Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.0 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 7.0 (1 of 8)
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.5 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.7 (17 of 30)
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary | Rosters Pos | Rosters Sal. | Minutes | FP/Game | FP/Min | True Usage | DvP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Paul | PG | $9,300 | PG | $8,500 | PG | $12,900 | 31.1 | 36.3 | 1.17 | 53.8% | 28 |
J.J. Redick | SG | $4,400 | SG | $4,400 | SG | $8,600 | 28.7 | 12.1 | 0.42 | 27.4% | 6 |
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | SF | $3,700 | SF | $3,000 | PF | $6,800 | 16.7 | 7.5 | 0.45 | 12.2% | 24 |
Blake Griffin | PF | $9,000 | PF | $8,800 | PF | $13,100 | 33.2 | 42.1 | 1.27 | 42.1% | 9 |
DeAndre Jordan | C | $7,500 | C | $7,200 | C | $11,200 | 28.1 | 24.3 | 0.86 | 17.4% | 3 |
Jamal Crawford | SG | $4,900 | SG | $4,100 | SG | $8,800 | 23.3 | 21.9 | 0.94 | 32.8% | 6 |
Austin Rivers | PG | $4,500 | PG | $3,300 | SG | $7,000 | 27.5 | 18.1 | 0.66 | 26.5% | 28 |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin
Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers
Happy Halloween everyone! Be safe out there tonight.