Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 23 - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-24 02:05:33

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Chicago at Cleveland – 08:30 PM

Chicago Cleveland
chicagonba Vegas Total 202 clevelandnba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 106.5
Team Pace 98.96 Team Pace 95.05
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 23 6 4 4 1 Opp. Season 28 13 23 19 24
Opp. Last 7 30 5 3 27 3 Opp. Season 28 28 18 30 20

Chicago

Record: 24-18 – Road: 8-10 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls are struggling recently and Vegas is expecting those struggles to continue as Cleveland checks in as 11 point favorites.

Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +4.2 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 186.19 (2 of 30)

Joakim Noah (O)

The Cavs aren’t quite on the defensive level of the Spurs, but they’ve been an elite unit all season long, and the Bulls team total is 6 points lower than their season average. Pau Gasol and Jimmy Butler have been great this season, but this is a tough matchup so all of the Bulls are secondary options at best. Pau Gasol in particular is struggling right now so I’m staying away from his elevated price tag. I don’t love Taj Gibson as a tournament option as he lacks upside, and hasn’t been great recently, but he does draw a solid matchup with Kevin Love and should produce 20 to 25 fantasy points.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Derrick Rose

Along with potentially Taj Gibson, Rose is the one Bull that draws a quality matchup as Kyrie Irving is not a good defender. Rose has been playing better recently, and does seem to get up for big games like the one tonight.

FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 25.5

Jimmy Butler

I’m probably not going to go there tonight as I don’t like the matchup, but Butler has shown he is capable of being matchup proof. The matchup should keep his ownership down so he’s worth a potential look in tournaments, although I do worry about him expending lots of energy guarding LeBron.

FD — $8,900 — SG
DK — $8,500 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 38.1 | Last Five Games: 39
FP/Game — Season: 38.1

Cleveland

Record: 30-11 – Home: 16-2 — Last 10: 8-2

The big news was that the Cavs fired David Blatt yesterday, and Vegas seems to think it’s going to have a positive effect as the Cavs are big favorites and have a team total sitting at 106 points.

NONE

The Bulls haven’t been a bad defensive team this year, but they have allowed a healthy amount of fantasy points. The big question here is whether the firing of Davit Blatt alters the Cavs’ tempo or the center rotation with Timofey Mozgov and Tristan Thompson. Mozgov has seen a small minutes bump as he reentered the starting lineup and has played 21 MPG over his last two games, while averaging 21.5 FD PPG. The matchup is solid as the Bulls are not great on the interior but he’s a risky option until we see how Tyronn Lue is going to disburse minutes at center.

Elite Plays

LeBron James

I typically don’t like playing any of the Cavs big three when they are healthy as I think they limit each other’s upside. However, LeBron has taken a lot of criticism in the media due to Blatt’s firing so he could be extra motivated and Vegas really likes the Cavs here. A potential matchup with Jimmy Butler is not ideal, but SF is somewhat thin and LeBron put up 25 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in the first meeting.

FD — $9,600 — SF
DK — $9,700 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 43.6

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

Love’s rebounding has really spiked over the past two games, which seems to have coincided with Mozgov’s minutes bump. He’s still a two stat category so his upside is somewhat limited but he’s produce two monster double doubles in a row and is fairly priced. Lue also has come out and said he wants to get Love more post touches, which is also a positive sign.

FD — $7,200 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.2

Kyrie Irving

Irving is really struggling right now so he’s strictly a tournament option, but he does draw a plus matchup with Derrick Rose, who has turned into a sub-par defender. The Bulls have been one of the worst defenses against PG and Kyrie does carry 40 fantasy point upside when he gets rolling offensively.

FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $6,800 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 25.2

Atlanta at Phoenix – 09:00 PM

Atlanta Phoenix
atlantanba Vegas Total 207 phoenixnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -11.5 Vegas Sprd +11.5
Team Proj. 109.3 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 99.05 Team Pace 100.77
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 29 30 28 13 7 Opp. Season 11 21 18 11 22
Opp. Last 7 18 27 28 9 23 Opp. Season 9 10 15 11 13

Editor’s Note: Paul Millsap has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Atlanta

Record: 26-18 – Road: 11-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hawks check in with the highest team total on the night at 109 points as they face a Phoenix team that was already bad, and is now depleted with injuries.

NONE

The Suns have been a poor defensive team all season long, but this is a trick spot with Atlanta. They tend to really spread around minutes and production so they can be a tough team to target from a fantasy perspective. Jeff Teague has fallen off a cliff recently so he’s a GPP tournament dart throw only.

Elite Plays

Editor’s Note: Paul Millsap has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Paul Millsap

Millsap is the one Hawk that has been steady this year and also brings upside to the table. His price is on the rise to the point where it’s starting to get uncomfortable again, but the matchup is premier, and he offers solid savings from Anthony Davis.

FD — $8,900 — PF
DK — $8,400 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 38.3

Secondary Plays

Kent Bazemore

Bazemore has been up and down recently, but he’s flashed 6x upside at his current price point and will a poor Suns’ defense that could be without their best wing defender in P. J. Tucker.

FD — $5,100 — SG
DK — $5,400 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.6

Kyle Korver

He’s been really bad this season, but his price has dipped below $4,000 on FD so he’s a potential punt option as a secondary SG. He’s produced 19 FD points in each of his past two games, which is right around 5x value and Phoenix has played very poor perimeter defense.

FD — $3,900 — SG
DK — $4,500 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 30.4 | Last Five Games: 28.0
FP/Game — Season: 17.8

Al Horford

There are other center options I’m looking towards, but Horford has flashed big game potential against weak opponents this season. I wouldn’t trust him for cash games, but he’s a potential tournament option.

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
Min/Game —Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.5

Phoenix

Phoenix Suns

Record: 13-31 – Home: 7-19 — Last 10: 1-9

The entire Suns team seems to be injured and they’ll face a solid Atlanta team, with a team total 4 points lower than their season average.

Markieff Morris (Q)
Brandon Knight (Q)
Ronnie Price (O)
P. J. Tucker (Q)
Mirza Teletovic (Q)
Jon Leuer (Q)

It’s hard to even begin breaking down the Suns until we get more news as to who is doubtful and who is probably as their entire team is questionable. With all of their PF out last game, the Suns started Alex Len and Tyson Chandler and both become attractive options if that situation plays out again as Atlanta is dead last in rebounding differential. Devin Booker has picked up the offensive slack with 31 FD points in consecutive games, while T. J. Warren will see a bump if P. J. Tucker sits.

UPDATE – Brandon Knight and Jon Leuer have been ruled out, while P. J. Tucker has been upgraded to probable. Knight’s absence really boosts the stock of Archie Goodwin and Devin Booker. Goodwin played 39 minutes in Knight’s absence and produced 26 FD points last game. We’re still awaiting word on Markieff Morris and Mirza Teletovic

Elite Plays

TBD

Secondary Plays

TBD

Detroit at Denver – 09:30 PM

Detroit Denver
detroitnba Vegas Total 206 denvernba Vegas Total 206
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 97.91 Team Pace 97.36
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 27 27 14 22 21 Opp. Season 14 14 2 21 9
Opp. Last 7 29 20 27 8 18 Opp. Season 22 30 2 18 26

Detroit

Record: 23-20 – Road: 9-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pistons are in a nice spot tonight as they’ll face a poor Denver team and have a team total of 104.5 points, which is high for them.

NONE

The Pistons enter this one fully healthy and the great thing about Detroit is that their starters all play predictable minutes. The one spot that has become somewhat unclear is PG, where Brandon Jennings has cut into “(player-popup)Reggie Jackson”:/players/reggie-jackson-13352’s minutes. The matchup is there so Jackson could be worth a look in tournaments, but he’s much riskier than he was earlier this season.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

Drummond is coming off of a monster game against a weak Pelicans interior, and now draws another quality matchup against a weak Denver interior. He’s a guy who always brings that 20 point and 20 rebound upside to the table, especially in a matchup like this, and is a top along with Cousins tonight.

FD — $9,000 — C
DK — $8,900 — C
Min/Game —Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 41.9

Secondary Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

KCP has never been fun to roster, but he’s really become a solid fantasy option recently. His minutes are very secure and he’s produced at least 26 FD points in each of his last ten games. He doesn’t offer huge upside, but he’s been a solid cash game option recently and the Nuggets are weak against SG.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.5 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 24.3

Ersan Ilyasova

While KCP makes for a solid cash game option, Ersan makes for a solid GPP option, but is risky for cash games. His minutes have been volatile this year, but he’s seen a recent uptick as he’s averaging 32 MPG over his last five games. He is a guy who does carry upside and this Denver interior is one that can be exploited.

FD — $5,700 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 32.2
FP/Game — Season: 21.2

Denver

Record: 16-27 – Home: 8-14 — Last 10: 4-6

Jameer Nelson (Q)

The Pistons have been a solid defensive team this year, and Mike Malone’s rotations can be tricky so this is a spot where I’ll be treading lightly. The one injury to watch is the status of Jameer Nelson as Mudiay’s minutes become very secure if he sits.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Emmanual Mudiay (if Jameer Nelson out)

If Jameer plays, he’s a stay away, but he’s topped 33 minutes in the three games that Jameer has missed. He’s still particularly cheap on FD, and has been right around 5x salary in each of those three games.

FD — $5,100 — PG
DK — $5,800 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 29.4 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 23

Kenneth Faried

The big question with Faried is his minutes as Mike Malone’s rotations are very difficult to predict and the Nuggets will play 5 big men. He has produced two big double doubles recently, and will face off with the Pistons’ weakest defender in Ersan Ilysasova. His price tag on both sites offers some tournament upside, but he’s always a dice roll for cash games.

FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $5,900 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 25.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.5

Indiana at Sacramento – 10:30 PM

Indiana Sacramento
indiananba Vegas Total 214.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Sprd +3 Vegas Sprd -3
Team Proj. 105.8 Team Proj. 108.8
Team Pace 99.5 Team Pace 101.94
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Jordan Hill Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Willie Cauley-Stein DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 24 28 21 29 25 Opp. Season 5 26 3 14 20
Opp. Last 7 2 22 4 29 19 Opp. Season 25 26 16 22 12

Indiana

Record: 23-20 – Road: 10-14 — Last 10: 4-6

Ian Mahinmi (D)
Rodney Stuckey (D)

The Pacers draw an elite matchup across the board as the Kings play at a break neck pace and play very little defense. They are expected to get George Hill back tonight, but should continue to be without Ian Mahinmi and Rodney Stuckey. Hello Myles Turner. Jordan Hill will likely draw another start at center, but Myles Turner has been the biggest beneficiary with Mahinmi out. Their starting PF is always a question as Solomon Hill started last game but Lavoy Allen and C. J. Miles are also potential starters. The only one that is interesting is C. J. if he does start. I very rarely roster George Hill, but he does draw an ideal matchup tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul George

George continues to be a volatile asset as coming off of a 19 FD point game, but can always pop off for 40 or 50 fantasy points. This is an ideal bounce back spot against a Sacramento defense that has defended every position poorly.

FD — $8,800 — SF
DK — $9,000 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 38.8

Myles Turner

Turner has averaged 29 MPG, 23.6 PPG, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks over his past three games. He was 20% percent owned in the Mega Slam last night and went off for 45 FD points. His price didn’t budge on either site as Indiana was playing the late game so he very well could be the highest owned player on the slate. That doesn’t concern me at all for cash games, but is worth noting for a tournament fade in some spots as Boogie could potentially foul out the entire Indiana frontcourt.

FD — $4,200 — PF
DK — $4,100 — C
Min/Game —Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 23.2
FP/Game — Season: 15.7

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis

George Hill is returning, which does put a ding in Monta’s usage. However ,he will now slide back to SG and face Ben McLemore terrible defense. He’s too expensive for me on DK, but is in play on FD as this game is the top game to target on the night.

FD — $6,300 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 26.4

Sacramento

Record: 19-23 – Home: 11-11 — Last 10: 7-3

Rudy Gay (Q)

The Kings’ have become a terrific team to target and game stack as they’re a great offensive team, but a very poor defensive team. They’ve also played much better basketball recently so the games are typically competitive. The big injury to watch here is the status of Rudy Gay, as Omri Casspi gets a nice bump if Gay sits.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

He’s seen a minutes bump recently and has played close to 40 minutes in close games. He’s been of the elite fantasy options and is a tough fade with the way he is playing. The Pacers’ are solid defensively but their weakness is on the glass and against big men. Boogie took advantage in the first meeting with 25 points, 16 rebounds, 1 assist, and 3 blocks.

FD — $11,100 — C
DK — $10,700 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 45.8

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

Rondo doesn’t draw a great matchup, but he’s a guy who has triple double upside almost regardless of opponent. Like Cousins, he’s playing great basketball and had 13 points, 8 rebounds and 17 assists in the first meeting between these two.

FD — $8,200 — PG
DK — $9,000 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 36.9

Willie Cauley-Stein (if Rudy Gay out)

Willie has stepped into the starting lineup, and although I don’t trust him quite yet, he will also benefit if Rudy Gay sits as Omri Casspi will spend the majority of his time at PF. If Gay plays, his minutes are not as secure as both teams can go small. He is still cheap and has played 30 minutes in two straight while averaging 31 FD PPG.

FD — $4,100 — C
DK — $4,300 — C
Min/Game —Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 22.4
FP/Game — Season: 15.5

Omri Casspi (if Rudy Gay out)

Omri is the primary beneficiary if Gay is out as he stepped in as the starter at SF and played 38 minutes. The matchup is not ideal but he offers nice minutes security if Gay misses another game.

FD — $5,500 — SF
DK — $6,000 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.1

L.A. Lakers at Portland – 10:30 PM

L.A. Lakers Portland
lalakersnba Vegas Total 207 portlandnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd 11 Vegas Sprd -11
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 109
Team Pace 98.73 Team Pace 97.22
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 25 18 8 23 23 Opp. Season 30 29 26 20 29
Opp. Last 7 21 24 7 28 6 Opp. Season 5 29 30 13 29

L.A. Lakers

Record: 9-36 – Road: 4-21 — Last 10: 1-9

Larry Nance, Jr.

The Lakers are obviously a bad basketball team and they’re a tough team to target from a fantasy point of view. Kobe Bryant, Lou Wiliams, D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson all share production and limit each other’s upside. The matchup is there, particularly for Russell and Clarkson against Lillard’s weak defense, but the upside and big minutes just haven’t been there. The one potential intriguing play here is Julius Randle, if Larry Nance, Jr., sits for another game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Julius Randle (if Larry Nance, Jr. out)

Randle has stepped into the starting lineup and is finally play 30+ minutes a night with Nance, Jr., out. He’s responded with two games of 29 or more FD points, and Portland really struggles on the interior. In two meetings with Portland, he’s averaging 34.6 DK points.

FD — $5,500 — PF
DK — $5,600 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 24.9

Portland

Record: 19-26 – Home: 10-10 — Last 10: 5-5

Portland is in a great spot as they face the hapless Lakers and have one of the highest team totals on the night. Blowouts can be a concern with Portland, but they haven’t shown an ability to blow teams out recently, and if they do blow out the Lakers, it’s likely because Lillard went off.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard

He’s been struggling recently, but this looks like the perfect spot for him to bust out in a big way. He’s smashed the Lakers in two matchups this year averaging 29.5 PPG, 5 rebounds and 10 assists.

FD — $8,700 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 39.2

Secondary Plays

C. J. McCollum

Everything is pointing for a solid outing for C. J. tonight, but the one holdback on him continues to be his elevated price point due to the time period when Lillard was out. He’s certainly capable of going off but his price takes away some of his upside.

FD — $7,700 — SG
DK — $7,300 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.1

Meyers Leonard

There’s no telling what Portland will do with their minutes on the interior so Leonard and Plumlee are risky. However, Leonard is very cheap and has produced 20 fantasy points in three straight games. He’s unlikely to top 25 minutes but the matchup is certainly there tonight for a tournament dart throw.

FD — $4,000 — C
DK — $4,000 — C
Min/Game —Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 23.4
FP/Game — Season: 17

Mason Plumlee

He’s in the same exact boat as Leonard as the minutes of Portland’s big men are very tough to predict. However, the Lakers are one of the worst interior defenses in the NBA and Plumlee does occasionally go off for 35 fantasy points.

FD — $5,300 — C
DK — $5,200 — C
Min/Game —Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 23.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.9

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)