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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 23rd

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-01-25 15:48:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Editor’s Note: The Utah/Washington and Boston/Philadelphia games have been postponed. FD did not include the NY/CHA game in their game set, but DK did and it currently appears as if the game will play.

Milwaukee at New Orleans – 07:00 PM

Milwaukee New Orleans
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 205 neworleansnba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 96.21 Team Pace 98.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Michael Carter-Williams Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj Starter Norris Cole Tyreke Evans Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 15 25 10 17 30 Opp. Season 9 20 25 24 14
Opp. Last 7 11 6 12 1 27 Opp. Season 1 18 6 16 30

Milwaukee

Record: 19-26 – Road: 7-19 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bucks are on the back end of a back to back as they lost last night in Houston. While the back to back isn’t ideal, they do draw a favorable matchup and are projected to see a slight scoring boost.

O.J. Mayo (GTD)

The Pelicans have shown some improvements defensively, but they’re still one of the leagues’ worst defenses. Jerryd Bayless has returned, which has cut into the minutes of Michael Carter-Williams, so MCW is a GPP only target as his minutes are not secure. O. J. Mayo is a GTD, and Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo have played huge minutes recently, while Greg Monroe draws the best matchup for the Bucks.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

The Pelicans have shown some improvements defensively, but they still continue to struggle against centers. Monroe’s minutes can be frustrating as he seems to have a ceiling of 30, but he’s produced a double double in four of his last five games, and had 21 points and 9 rebounds last night.

FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
Min/Game —Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 33.3

Khris Middleton

Like Giannis, Middleton has seen a minutes boost and is playing close to 40 MPG. He’s now scored 20 or more real points in eight of his last nine games, and if he is guarded by Tyreke Evans then he should be in store for another quality night offensively as the Pelicans are 25th in DVP against SG.

FD — $7,400 — SF
DK — $7,300 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 40.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.6

Secondary Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis has seen a minutes boost of almost 5 MPG over his past five games, which has really translated to solid fantasy production as he can stuff a stat sheet. The big question here is whether Tyreke Evans guards Giannis or Khris, as Evans is not a good defender.

FD — $7,600 — SG
DK — $7,400 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 39.2
FP/Game — Season: 30.3

New Orleans

Record: 15-27 – Home: 10-9 — Last 10: 5-5

After a terrible start, the Pelicans have started to play .500 basketball recently. They check in with a very solid team total of 105 points, and catch Milwaukee on a back to back.

Eric Gordon (O)

The Bucks were a very solid defensive team last year, but they’ve really slipped this season. Omer Asik does draw a solid matchup, and has produced 21 or more FD points in four of his past seven games. He doesn’t have much upside though, and his minutes are not secure so he’d fall behind potential center value plays like Spencer Hawes, Alex Len and Tyson Chandler for me. Eric Gordon is out so Norris Cole surprisingly stepped into the starting lineup last game, with Jrue Holiday continuing to come off the bench.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis is in a nice spot against a Milwaukee team that struggles to rebound, and is 24th in DVP against PF. His ability to get hurt is mind-boggling, but he’s playing better recently with 47 FD points in two straight games.

FD — $10,300 — PF
DK — $10,000 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 43.6

Secondary Plays

Norris Cole

Cole surprisingly drew the start over Jrue Holiday last game and played 31 minutes while producing a solid stat line of 12 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. The matchup isn’t ideal as MCW is a quality defender, which is evidenced by the Bucks’ DVP against PG. However, he is still dirt cheap and volume could help pay off his cheap salary.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,600 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 25.2
FP/Game — Season: 16.4

Tyreke Evans

His minutes have down as he’s been banged up, but they finally returned to normal last game and he responded with a quality game. Overall, it’s really tough to nail down which Pelicans’ guard is going to go off so he’s a secondary option. However, his minutes should be more secure with Eric Gordon out and he carries 40 FD point upside.

FD — $7,300 — PG
DK — $7,700 — SG
Min/Game —Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 21.5
FP/Game — Season: 32.8

Jrue Holiday

It was initially thought he’d step into the starting lineup for Eric Gordon as he had been playing very well. However, he surprisingly played only 22 minutes off the bench. He should be the lowest owned of the Pelican’s guards and prior to last game’s dud, he had produced at least 33 FD points in three straight.

FD — $6,400 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.4
FP/Game — Season: 24.8

New York at Charlotte – 07:00 PM

New York Charlotte
newyorknba Vegas Total 198 charlottenba Vegas Total 198
Vegas Sprd +1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 95.96 Team Pace 97.82
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj Starter Kemba Walker Jeremy Lin P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Spencer Hawes
Opp. Season 19 15 15 27 11 Opp. Season 12 11 6 9 18
Opp. Last 7 26 13 29 7 10 Opp. Season 24 8 10 3 22

New York

Record: 22-23 — Road: 9-14 — Last 10: 6-4

There were two games cancelled on the east coast and it appears FD anticipated this game getting cancelled as it has not been included in their game set. However, it looks like it’s going to play and it is included on DK. Overall, it’s not that enticing of a game however, and carries the second lowest total of the slate.

Lance Thomas (Q)

The Hornets are very average defensively, but the Knicks are an average offensive team as well. Robin Lopez and Arron Afflalo have had their moments, but both are very unpredictable and have a very low floor. Lopez was ejected last night for slapping Chris Paul, and while I haven’t seen any signs of a suspension, I guess it is something to monitor.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Carmelo continues to be very affordable on DK and has flashed 50 DK point upside several times recently. Nicolas Batum is banged up and could miss this game, which would be a nice matchup boost for Melo. Even with Batum in the lineup, he’s fared very well against Charlotte this year as he’s averaged 43.6 DK PPG in two meetings.

FD — — SF
DK — $8,300 — SF
Min/Game —Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 40.7
FP/Game — Season: 39.0 (DK)

Secondary Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

Outside of Carmelo, Porzingis is the only other Knick that has been somewhat dependable, and he offers solid upside. Charlotte has really struggled against PF all season long, and are depleted on the interior right now. Porzingis has taken advantage as he’s averaging 39.8 DK PPG against them this year.

FD — — PF
DK — $7,300 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.5 (DK)

Charlotte

Record: 20-23 – Home: 15-8 — Last 10: 3-7

Charlotte is coming off of a big comeback win over Orlando last night in overtime. This isn’t an ideal matchup against a slow paced Knicks team on a back to back, but the Hornets are short-handed so there could be potential value.

Cody Zeller (Q)
Al Jefferson (O)
Nicolas Batum (Q)

As mentioned, this is not an ideal matchup, but the Hornets could be without Batum as well as Zeller tonight. With Al Jefferson already out, Spencer Hawes stepped into the starting lineup, while Jeremy Lin drew the start for Batum.

The primary options here are Kemba Walker and Spencer Hawes, if he starts, but Jeremy Lin and Frank Kaminsky are potential options, if Nicolas Batum and Zeller are out. I like this spot for a bounce back for Kaminsky but the problem is that his price on DK is elevated and he takes a valuable center spot.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker

With all of the Hornet’s injuries, Kemba has seen not only a solid minutes bump to almost 40 per game, but also a big usage boost. It’s come in overtime but he’s shown 70 DK point upside twice in the past three games, and shoots the ball much better at home than on the road. Jose Calderon is not a good defender and the Knicks have struggled against PG recently so he’s an elite option if the Hornets continue to be short-handed.

FD — — PG
DK — $8,300 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 39.8
FP/Game — Season: 37.0 (DK)

Spencer Hawes (if Cody Zeller out)

He drew the start last night and played 32 minutes, while produced 36 DK points. He can be volatile option, but he also does offer upside when the minutes are there. At sub $4,000, he’s an elite value option if Cody Zeller misses another game as the Knicks are just 18th in DVP against centers.

FD — — C
DK — $3,600 — C
Min/Game —Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 21.4
FP/Game — Season: 14.1 (DK)

Secondary Plays

Jeremy Lin (if Nicolas Batum out)

Lin drew the start and disappointed as he put up only 13 DK points. However, he played solid minutes and overall he’s averaged 18.5 PPG, 3.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists with Batum out this season.

FD — — C
DK — $3,600 — C
Min/Game —Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 21.4
FP/Game — Season: 14.1 (DK)

Memphis at Minnesota – 08:00 PM

Memphis Minnesota
memphisnba Vegas Total 193.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd +2.5
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 95.53 Team Pace 97.25
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 16 17 16 8 13 Opp. Season 10 4 22 12 4
Opp. Last 7 4 12 14 12 2 Opp. Season 6 11 5 21 4

Memphis

Record: 25-19 – Road: 9-12 — Last 10: 7-3

This game checks in with the lowest total on the slate at just 193.5 points, and doesn’t offer many high upside options.

Tony Allen (Q)
Marc Gasol (O)

Minnesota isn’t a great defensive team but the Grizzlies are back to playing at a slow pace, and they could be without their top player in Marc Gasol. Gasol has flashed big upside lately as his minutes have been way up, but with a potential knee issue, he looks like a stay away, if he even plays.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph (if Marc Gasol out)

He’s stepped back into the starting lineup, but hasn’t been very good recently. This is a stay away unless Marc Gasol sits. If Gasol does sit then Randolph enters the equation as a secondary option as he should pick extra offensive in the post.

FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $6,100 — PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 27.6
FP/Game — Season: 26.1

Mike Conley

He’s a very unexciting player to roster as his upside is really 30 points, but he’s typically a safe bet for 25 to 30 fantasy points. Ricky Rubio is not a great defender, and if Marc Gasol sits then he could pick up some extra usage.

FD — $6,600 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
Min/Game —Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 27
FP/Game — Season: 28.9

Minnesota

Record: 13-31 – Home: 6-17 — Last 10: 1-9

Along with the Chicago Bulls, Minnesota checks in with the lowest team total on the slate and has a team total 3.4 points lower than their season average.

Kevin Garnett (Q)

The Grizzlies have had some slippage defensively but they still rank highly in limiting points, and more importantly for us fantasy points. Minnesota is a tough team to target anyway because some of their top players like Ricky Rubio and Karl Anthony-Towns play limited minutes at times. Andrew Wiggins is their one player who does play big minutes, but he tends to be very scoring depending and this is not a great matchup. If you’re in dire need of value at SF then “(player-popup)Shabazz Muhammad”:/players/shabazz-muhammad-16919’s minutes and production are on the rise, but he’s in the same boat as Wiggins in that this is not an ideal matchup.

If Marc Gasol does happen to miss this one then Towns does get a matchup boost and has shown upside, but his minutes are always a question mark. Overall, this looks like a team to face with the exception of maybe a Shabazz punt at SF.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)