NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 25th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Pat Connaughton | Noah Vonleh | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 4 | 29 | 6 | 5 | DvP | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 10 | |
| DRPM | -0.44 | -0.27 | 1.69 | 1.28 | 0.73 | DRPM | -0.18 | -0.57 | -0.71 | 0.95 | 1.93 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trailblazers have shockingly been one of the better defensive teams in terms of efficiency in the league this season – part of which might be a result of the much slower pace they are playing at this season. The Wizards are ranked 15th in pace and 11th in defensive efficiency. This is a 206 total with Portland listed as 5.5 road underdogs.
Damian Lillard has felt a bit pricey this season but for only $8500 the upside might be too much to pass on. Lillard is also averaging more than 3 fantasy points per game on the road this season. I think there is upside here in tournaments, but there are other guards I am more interested in on this slate. I listed him as a secondary play because his price is low, and the upside is there. CJ McCollum is another guard I don’t hate but again I just think there are other guards in play, so he likely misses the cut for me. The Wizards are a team I love to attack with Small Forwards. The Blazers have some of the worst options at this position with Aminu out. I think this game could be fun to watch but from a fantasy perspective I don’t love Portland. It’s a ten-game slate and the more and more I think about it, I feel like I am forcing myself to play Trail Blazers. On ten game slates when you feel like you are forcing plays in that typically ends in bad lineups.
Notable Injuries Al-Farouq Aminu (out)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 101.6 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (17 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (12 of 20)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $8,800 | $8,500 | $15,600 | 42.2 | -6.8 | 36.1 | -1.2 | 1.17 | 29.8% | 55.3% | 17 | -0.44 |
| C.J. McCollum | $6,500 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 32.5 | -5.9 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 0.90 | 23.3% | 57.7% | 4 | -0.27 |
| Pat Connaughton | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 18.4 | -5.6 | 0.55 | 12.6% | 58.3% | 29 | 1.69 |
| Noah Vonleh | $3,900 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.9 | 8.5 | 21.0 | 2.5 | 0.81 | 9.4% | 53.7% | 6 | 1.28 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,900 | $6,300 | $13,500 | 28.3 | -1.5 | 27.4 | -0.4 | 1.03 | 24.1% | 48.1% | 5 | 0.73 |
| Ed Davis | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 18.0 | -1.1 | 18.9 | -0.9 | 0.95 | 11.4% | 50.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Evan Turner | $3,800 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 18.6 | -7.0 | 27.3 | -3.6 | 0.68 | 15.5% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (tournaments only)
Washington Wizards
Portland has looked good this year and are currently ranked 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency. They are also ranked in the bottom ten in pace this year which has made them a frustrating team to target in fantasy. This is a 206 total where the Wizards are 5.5 home favorites. John Wall is currently questionable for this game and did not go through practice on Friday. This is going to be one of those spots we are going to have to monitor throughout the day. I approached this analysis with the intent that John Wall is not playing. If he does play, he is in play but against one of the top defensive teams in he league, many of the plays I discussed below would lose their value.
The Wizards were not a team that I was looking to play a ton on this slate. Just to put this into perspective for you, Portland is ranked in the top ten in fantasy points allowed at every position. I really don’t want to play Wizards on a ten game slate unless Wall sits. If Wall does sit, Tim Frazier becomes another value guard to consider. The last time Wall sat, Frazier had 26.5 DraftKings points. For only $3500 he would be a cash and tournament option. Another guard to love would be Bradley Beal. With Wall off the court Beal sees a 6.1% usage bump. Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre would also benefit as both see an increase in usage above 5%. Marcin Gortat can’t go overlooked here. I understand we don’t want to target Nurkic, but Gortat has hit six times his salary in his last four games and is priced low enough to do that again. Markieff Morris is the last guy I want to mention because he is simply still too cheap at $4500. He has continued to see an uptick in minutes and last time I discussed him he was $4000. I promise you that his price will continue to rise along with his production and I don’t hate the idea of buying low on him.
Notable Injuries John Wall (questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (7 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.7 (18 of 20)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.8 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,300 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 41.8 | -3.3 | 34.4 | 1.8 | 1.21 | 28.9% | 53.2% | 7 | -0.18 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,600 | $7,400 | $14,400 | 36.8 | -3.5 | 35.4 | 2.7 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 58.3% | 6 | -0.57 |
| Otto Porter | $6,300 | $6,000 | $13,100 | 31.5 | -4.9 | 33.1 | 0.2 | 0.95 | 15.9% | 64.1% | 7 | -0.71 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 22.7 | 6.2 | 0.84 | 18.0% | 53.3% | 3 | 0.95 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,300 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 26.2 | 7.8 | 30.9 | 5.0 | 0.85 | 13.1% | 58.8% | 10 | 1.93 |
| Kelly Oubre | $3,700 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 21.4 | -4.8 | 28.0 | -7.2 | 0.76 | 14.7% | 56.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal and Otto Porter (if wall sits)
Secondary Plays – None
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Philadelphia 76ers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.0 |  | Vegas Total | 220.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.5 | Implied Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Terrence Ross | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | T.J. McConnell | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 27 | DvP | 28 | 29 | 13 | 24 | 16 | |
| DRPM | -0.03 | -0.79 | 1.84 | -1.17 | 2.72 | DRPM | -0.57 | -0.65 | 0.55 | -0.70 | 1.75 | |
Orlando Magic
The Magic started out hot but have quickly fallen. They were 8-4 but are currently on a seven-game losing streak. Clearly Dean78904 has rattled the Magic but despite their poor play there are reasons to get exposure to Orlando. The reason we want to load up on this game is we get the sixth fastest paced team in the league against the fifth fastest paced team. This total is at 220 and should have a lot of fantasy points scored.
The Magic were banged up early on and became expensive throughout the industry. Since their starting five has returned they have finally been priced down to a point where they are playable. Before they had capped upside but at these prices I like a lot of options on Orlando. Typically, we would target Nikola Vucevic against the Sixers because he has dominated against them in the past, but this is not your typical Sixers team. Vucevic has to deal with Joel Embiid who can cause some fits and put you in foul trouble. I think I am going to stay away from Vucevic in this spot despite his $6700 price. Aaron Gordon is only $7000 and fits this game environment well. He thrives in fast paced games and this is one that I could see him having upside in a tournament.
Elfrid Payton is another guy who has triple double upside almost any night. The problem is that he busts a ton but in this game environment he could thrive. I don’t hate throwing a tournament dart at him but don’t go crazy. Evan Fournier looks cheap around the industry, but I have some concern with him. I think the price is great, but the Sixers are the best in the league at defending the three-point line. Fournier normally needs to hit his three pointers to really pay off his price and a matchup against the Sixers sounds like a good fade spot to me.
Notable Injuries Jonathan Isaac (out)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (6 of 20)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.2 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,900 | $6,400 | $12,900 | 25.6 | 2.6 | 25.7 | 1.9 | 0.99 | 20.1% | 44.8% | 14 | -0.03 |
| Evan Fournier | $6,100 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 30.5 | -9.3 | 32.4 | -2.1 | 0.94 | 21.1% | 61.5% | 23 | -0.79 |
| Terrence Ross | $4,400 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 19.4 | 1.4 | 27.1 | -0.8 | 0.72 | 15.2% | 51.2% | 22 | 1.84 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,400 | $7,000 | $13,200 | 34.0 | 0.9 | 32.1 | 1.8 | 1.06 | 18.7% | 63.3% | 18 | -1.17 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $7,400 | $6,700 | $12,300 | 34.1 | 0.5 | 29.7 | -0.9 | 1.15 | 21.8% | 57.2% | 27 | 2.72 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 21.6 | -7.4 | 24.8 | -2.7 | 0.87 | 21.3% | 59.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Aaron Gordon
Secondary Plays – None
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are rolling with a record of 10-7 and winning seven of their last ten games. They get a great matchup against the Magic who are ranked sixth in pace. This is one of the higher totals on the slate at 220 points. The big question is what will they do without their superstar Ben Simmons as he is listed as out for Saturday, making this a prime spot to get some value. This is one of those spots where I want to load up on Sixers.
Simmons is a tough guy to replace, currently averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute with a 25.6% usage. With Simmons out, we need to give Embiid a strong look even at $9800. Embiid against Vucevic defense is going to be a gold mine. I understand he is still priced up but any big man that goes against Vuc knows that they should dominate. Embiid is seeing a 38.4% usage and averaging 1.63 fantasy points per game with Simmons off the court. I know this is only a 105 minute sample size but Embiid is going to be a play you don’t want to miss out on. Embiid is not the only big to have interest in on the Sixers side of the ball. I would be curious to see who starts but Amir Johnson is averaging a surprising 1.24 fantasy points per minute with Simmons off the floor. This is a spot where we need to keep an eye on what the Sixers are going to do as we get closer to lineup lock.
TJ McConnell instantly becomes a favorite for only $4000. McConnell will have more ball handling opportunities and for that cheap of a price is an elite value play. Robert Covington fits the fast-paced game scripts so well that whenever he plays in these types of games I load up. At this price he feels expensive, but he has a lot of upside here especially with Simmons out. JJ Redick is also only $4900 and gets a little bit of revenge against the team who drafted him. Redick is a good play, but I prefer McConnel if you force me to pick one. The last guy I forgot to mention is Dario Saric. He could slide into the starting role as well and even if he doesn’t still should see a bump in production. Saric is a talented guy who has been sort of held back because of guys like Embiid and Simmons soaking up so much usage. I expect him to thrive here and be a great value play. I just want to stress how much I love the Sixers value today and it is a great way to get exposure in this game for cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries Ben Simmons, Justin Anderson, Nik Stauskas and Markelle Fultz (all out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (3 of 20)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. McConnell | $4,700 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 20.4 | -0.6 | 23.9 | 2.7 | 0.85 | 15.1% | 55.9% | 28 | -0.57 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,300 | $4,900 | $12,000 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 33.1 | 0.4 | 0.76 | 17.7% | 56.7% | 29 | -0.65 |
| Robert Covington | $6,800 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 31.5 | 2.1 | 31.6 | 2.6 | 1.00 | 16.3% | 64.6% | 13 | 0.55 |
| Dario Saric | $5,300 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 20.5 | 7.6 | 27.2 | 2.1 | 0.75 | 15.9% | 48.0% | 24 | -0.70 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,100 | $9,800 | $17,200 | 44.7 | -6.1 | 29.3 | 0.9 | 1.52 | 27.5% | 58.5% | 16 | 1.75 |
Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, TJ McConnell and Robert Covington
Secondary Plays – JJ Redick and Dario Saric
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Patty Mills | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 22 | 20 | 10 | 6 | DvP | 1 | 12 | 21 | 17 | 12 | |
| DRPM | -1.01 | -0.10 | 1.12 | 0.60 | 1.40 | DRPM | -1.69 | 0.67 | 0.81 | 0.71 | 1.91 | |
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are still without Kawhi Leonard and ranked third in the Western Conference. This is a big boost in pace for the Spurs going up against the 8th fastest paced team in the league. This is a 203-game total with San Antonio as 1.5 road underdogs. Kyle Anderson has looked good recently and is still cheap throughout the industry. In Anderson’s last three game he is averaging 30.5 DraftKings points and is only $4700. Charlotte is ranked 21st against opposing Small Forwards and with the way Anderson has looked I like him at this price. Popovich said that when Leonard gets back he is going to have to find a way to keep Anderson on the court with Leonard. That’s some high praise from him and just a testament to how good Anderson has been this year.
The main target on the Spurs is LaMarcus Aldridge who currently has a 26.5% usage and is the best play on the Spurs with Kawhi gone. Aldridge’s price has gone down around to only $7700 where he is more playable. I think he is a fine option and I wouldn’t talk anyone off him. I just don’t roster Aldridge unless it’s a perfect spot and this is not one to get excited about. Other than that, I won’t be getting too much exposure to the San Antonio side of the ball on this slate.
Notable Injuries Kawhi Leonard (out)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 100.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (7 of 20)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Mills | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 26.3 | 3.8 | 0.73 | 18.3% | 46.7% | 20 | -1.01 |
| Danny Green | $4,600 | $4,500 | $9,600 | 22.9 | 6.1 | 28.7 | -1.1 | 0.80 | 16.6% | 51.4% | 22 | -0.10 |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,500 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 25.2 | 5.6 | 27.3 | 1.8 | 0.92 | 14.7% | 55.8% | 20 | 1.12 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $7,900 | $7,700 | $14,400 | 38.9 | -6.8 | 32.9 | 1.0 | 1.18 | 26.5% | 56.3% | 10 | 0.60 |
| Pau Gasol | $5,700 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 28.8 | 0.6 | 25.0 | -0.5 | 1.15 | 18.2% | 59.5% | 6 | 1.40 |
| Rudy Gay | $4,200 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 22.5 | -7.1 | 22.0 | -3.1 | 1.02 | 22.3% | 55.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyle Anderson
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte draws a matchup against the slowest paced team in the league. That alone has me concerned especially because it’s the Spurs. This is a 203 total and one that I would normally stay away from. The problem is that we have value opening with the Batum injury and many of these Charlotte options are cheap on DraftKings. The FanDuel prices are not appealing but on DraftKings they are priced for the matchup, making Hornets options more appealing.
Nic Batum is dealing with an injury on the same elbow that he hurt earlier in the season. Batum is likely out which makes Jeremy Lamb another good value on this slate. Lamb is still cheap on DraftKings for $5400 but on FanDuel $6300 is a tougher spend. On DraftKings, I would load up on him in cash and tournaments. On FanDuel, I would not lock him in, but he is still a good play. Kemba Walker is averaging 39 DraftKings points per game. This may not be the greatest pace for him and he is going up against the best ranked team in the league against opposing point guards. At this price around the industry and no Batum though, he is an interesting play on this slate.
The Batum injury also gives Michael Kidd-Gilchrist a slight boost, forcing him into more guaranteed minutes. Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t my favorite roster but for only $4000 there is upside in tournaments. Howard is not my favorite from a matchup perspective but the idea of getting someone who averages 35.5 DraftKings points for only $6700 is appealing. The Spurs are ranked 12th in the league against opposing centers. I think there are other Centers that I like at that price point more, but I thought it was worth noting how much of a discount we are getting on Dwight. I would not be playing many of the Hornets options on FanDuel but on DraftKings we can take advantage of some of the cheaper prices.
Notable Injuries Nicolas Batum (questionable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.9 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (19 of 20)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.9 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.4 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,800 | $7,600 | $14,900 | 36.9 | -4.1 | 35.3 | 1.4 | 1.05 | 26.2% | 59.2% | 1 | -1.69 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,400 | $6,000 | $11,600 | 24.1 | -0.3 | 25.9 | -2.3 | 0.93 | 20.6% | 50.5% | 12 | 0.67 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,500 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.4 | 3.0 | 24.3 | 8.9 | 0.76 | 13.2% | 55.0% | 21 | 0.81 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,800 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 18.3 | 1.6 | 25.9 | 2.2 | 0.71 | 12.7% | 58.7% | 17 | 0.71 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,900 | $6,700 | $13,800 | 34.1 | 14.5 | 30.1 | 2.2 | 1.13 | 18.7% | 57.1% | 12 | 1.91 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 19.4 | 1.0 | 24.9 | -3.5 | 0.78 | 19.0% | 52.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb (if no Batum)
Secondary Plays – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (tournaments only)
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | John Collins | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 30 | 25 | 25 | 20 | DvP | 8 | 26 | 1 | 14 | 14 | |
| DRPM | -2.71 | 0.39 | 0.08 | -0.24 | 0.41 | DRPM | -0.28 | -1.08 | 0.73 | -0.27 | 0.10 | |
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is coming in on a two-game losing streak but lucky for them they have the perfect get right spot against the terrible Atlanta Hawks. The Raptors surprisingly are in the top five in points per game this season and have the fourth highest implied total on the slate. They should put up a ton of points on Atlanta who are ranked in the bottom five in defensive efficiency. I normally don’t roster too many Raptors but today is a day to not let them go overlooked.
DeMar Derozan is someone that I hate to roster. This is the matchup that I love to target with him though and while $8200 feels pricey I think I could see myself pulling the trigger on him here. The Hawks are ranked dead last in the league against opposing Shooting Guards. He is very points dependent, but he has flashed 50-point upside recently, so I don’t mind getting exposure to him here. Kyle Lowry is another guard to consider for the Raptors at only $7700. He struggled to start the year but is coming fresh off a 50-point fantasy game and against the Hawks that gives me some interest.
CJ Miles didn’t travel with the team or play on Friday night for the Raptors. His absence makes Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka interesting value plays. They are not plays that I would be getting a ton of exposure to, but the Hawks can’t defend anyone. Powell has seen an uptick in minutes since returning from injury and he could be in for a big game at only $3900.
Notable Injuries CJ Miles (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 109.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.3 (4 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (9 of 20)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,200 | $7,700 | $14,900 | 32.8 | 7.7 | 32.2 | 1.5 | 1.02 | 21.1% | 59.0% | 16 | -2.71 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,400 | $8,200 | $14,600 | 38.5 | 5.3 | 34.3 | -0.6 | 1.12 | 28.7% | 57.9% | 30 | 0.39 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,200 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 12.7 | -3.5 | 18.3 | 3.5 | 0.70 | 13.0% | 58.4% | 25 | 0.08 |
| Serge Ibaka | $4,800 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 23.1 | -0.4 | 27.3 | 0.5 | 0.85 | 15.9% | 59.2% | 25 | -0.24 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,300 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 21.4 | -2.7 | 20.6 | -2.7 | 1.04 | 16.8% | 61.5% | 20 | 0.41 |
| Pascal Siakam | $4,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 18.4 | 10.0 | 20.5 | 11.1 | 0.90 | 14.9% | 56.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Norman Powell | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 17.4 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 0.8 | 0.78 | 16.5% | 53.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan and Norman Powell ( if Miles is out) and Kyle Lowry
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta comes into Toronto on the second half of a back-to-back after a win against the Knicks last night. The Raptors are ranked 15th in pace of play and 12th in defensive efficiency. This game has a 210.5 implied total and the Hawks are seven-point home underdogs. They are not a team that I typically target on defense but there are some good options on the Hawks side of the ball that I want to get exposure to.
The Hawks are one of the worst teams in the league but that doesn’t mean we can’t have interest in some of the Atlanta options. My favorite is Dennis Schroder for only $6600. Typically, I don’t like to target Kyle Lowry defense with the Raptors ranked 9th best in the league against opposing point guards. Schroder’s price is simply too cheap and he leads the league in touches this year. The amount of usage he is seeing and him averaging 35 fantasy points per game just makes him too appealing of an option. The other Hawks options are easy for me to pass on. Guys like Prince and Bazemore have upside at those prices but in a low total game I wouldn’t get a ton of exposure to them. They are the top of options that I would like to sprinkle in tournaments.
John Collins has been a bright spot for this Hawks team and finally made it into the starting lineup. He is still only $5200 and at that price is one of the better value plays on this slate. I know the matchup against Ibaka isn’t the most ideal but Muscala and Babbit being out makes him a top value. It’s just tough to pass on a guy who is averaging 30.9 DraftKings points in his last five games. When a rookie slides into the starting role and does well, this is a play that we want to ride out until he becomes overpriced.
Notable Injuries Luke Babbit and Mike Muscala (out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.8 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.3 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (9 of 20)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,400 | $6,700 | $11,900 | 34.5 | 2.3 | 32.3 | 1.4 | 1.07 | 29.0% | 52.2% | 8 | -0.28 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,200 | $5,300 | $9,900 | 28.4 | -4.3 | 28.6 | -0.6 | 0.99 | 20.8% | 52.2% | 26 | -1.08 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,500 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 26.3 | -4.6 | 31.5 | -0.5 | 0.84 | 17.0% | 52.9% | 1 | 0.73 |
| John Collins | $6,800 | $5,200 | $9,400 | 25.0 | 10.6 | 23.0 | 9.9 | 1.09 | 17.8% | 61.3% | 14 | -0.27 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,500 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 24.6 | -0.9 | 24.4 | 1.7 | 1.01 | 14.4% | 67.4% | 14 | 0.10 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 13.8 | -9.3 | 18.3 | -11.9 | 0.75 | 13.7% | 35.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Collins and Dennis Schroder
Secondary Plays – None
Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers – 8:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 14 | 5 | 27 | 29 | DvP | 3 | 2 | 17 | 1 | 2 | |
| DRPM | -0.79 | 0.10 | -1.05 | 1.07 | 0.96 | DRPM | 0.38 | 1.45 | 1.08 | 0.19 | 1.97 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics finally had their 16-game win streak snapped against the Miami Heat the other day. Now they get a game against the Pacers against a team that is ranked 18th in the league in defensive efficiency. Vegas thinks this game will be close with Boston only listed as 2 point favorites and a 207 implied team total. That makes me think that Oladipo will play and Jaylen Brown does not. Luckily for us this game is early enough where we should know this news ahead of time.
Jaylen Brown is currently questionable and Marcus Morris has already been ruled out. If there is no Brown, I would expect a lot of the wing players to have to step up in this game. Marcus Smart would likely slide into a bigger role with a usage of 25.9% when the two of them are off the floor. Smart is cheap around the industry and I would expect him to become a good value play if Brown decides to sit. Even Terry Rozier might be in for some extended run if Brown doesn’t play.
Tatum and Horford are two options that I would really like if value opens for us. The Pacers are ranked 27th against power forwards and 29th against centers in 2017. These two would likely see more opportunities for peripheral stats and a boost in usage. The last guy to discuss if Brown sits would be Kyrie Irving who has a 39% usage and is averaging 1.33 fantasy points per minute. I know there is a lot of guard value on this slate but that type of production is tough to come by and I would do my best to find $8300 for Uncle Drew.
Notable Injuries Jaylen Brown (questionable) and Marcus Morris (out)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.6 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (5 of 20)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.4 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,300 | $8,300 | $15,000 | 38.0 | 7.7 | 31.6 | 2.9 | 1.20 | 29.2% | 57.6% | 15 | -0.79 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,000 | $6,300 | $12,000 | 28.3 | 0.2 | 32.5 | 2.0 | 0.87 | 18.7% | 57.0% | 14 | 0.10 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,000 | $6,000 | $11,400 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 30.5 | 3.1 | 0.90 | 16.0% | 63.2% | 5 | -1.05 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,500 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 23.7 | 2.5 | 23.4 | 0.5 | 1.01 | 21.4% | 56.3% | 27 | 1.07 |
| Al Horford | $7,000 | $7,000 | $13,100 | 32.9 | -4.8 | 32.7 | 2.7 | 1.00 | 16.9% | 62.8% | 29 | 0.96 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,200 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 25.5 | -1.9 | 30.9 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 19.1% | 39.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum
Secondary Plays – Al Horford
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have been fun to target this year as they play most their starters secure minutes and at a faster pace than we expected coming into the season. This is a tough matchup though against a Celtics team that is the best defensive efficiency team in the league. I was thinking Oladipo wouldn’t play but seeing that the Pacers are only 2 point underdogs in a 207 implied total perplexes me. Either way the main thing to note from this game is that if Oladipo misses the Pacers will be losing a 29% usage player. This type of production will give us a bunch of value plays that we can get exposure to.
Oladipo, in addition to that high usage, averages 1.13 fantasy points per minute. He is their best player and without him I expect them to struggle offensively. If Oladipo plays I would probably fade everyone from this game because it’s a bad team going up against the best defense in the league. If Oladipo doesn’t play, Darren Collison would become the primary ball handler and a great value play. All the usage would go to him and he would be one of the value guards that you would want to consider in your lineups.
Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner and even Bojan Bogdonvic would have to help pick up the slack and all become interesting plays. Turner is only $6300 on DraftKings and should have a great game if Oladipo sits. Even if he played, he still would be someone I would be getting exposure to on this slate. Bojan has been great this year and is a cheap way to get exposure to this game. It is tough to decipher who is going to cover him with Oladipo and Brown’s status up in the air but depending on injury news I think he could become an interesting value play. You could even see Lance Stephenson be one of those high usage bench players that chucks the ball all game and becomes a tournament winning play. For only $3500 I don’t hate the idea of getting small exposure to him if Oladipo sits. This is one of those games where we really need that Oladipo news to help us make our decision. If he sits, Collison is going to be one of my favorite options along with Myles Turner.
Notable Injuries Victor Oladipo (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -6.4 (20 of 20)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.3 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,900 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 28.3 | 1.7 | 31.8 | 0.7 | 0.89 | 18.7% | 58.2% | 3 | 0.38 |
| Victor Oladipo | $8,300 | $7,800 | $14,900 | 39.4 | 12.5 | 33.2 | 2.5 | 1.19 | 27.2% | 57.0% | 2 | 1.45 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 22.3 | 9.0 | 30.1 | 4.8 | 0.74 | 16.1% | 66.5% | 17 | 1.08 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,000 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 27.8 | 4.6 | 33.3 | 0.4 | 0.84 | 16.3% | 54.0% | 1 | 0.19 |
| Myles Turner | $7,700 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 32.9 | -1.3 | 29.0 | 0.8 | 1.14 | 18.4% | 53.5% | 2 | 1.97 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,400 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 19.6 | 0.6 | 24.3 | 1.6 | 0.81 | 16.7% | 54.6% | N/A | N/A |