NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 10th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-12-10 15:45:45

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings – 3:30 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							Sacramento Kings
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Spread		-7.5					Vegas Spread		7.5
			Implied Team Total		107.5					Implied Team Total		100.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-3.0					Pace Projection +/-		0.7
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	George Hill	Garrett Temple	JaKarr Sampson	Zach Randolph
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	18	11	21	15	29		DvP	6	25	1	13	10
DRPM Rat.	29	17	9	11	19		DRPM Rat.	8	24	7	22	28

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

Happy Sunday, gang! We have a six game NBA slate today, which is split between three early games and three late games. That split makes the slate a little less exciting, but that’s not to say that there isn’t some fun to be had. The day starts with a game between the Raptors and Kings, which normally wouldn’t profile as the most exciting game of the day. However, we have a fairly high Vegas total of 208 in this game, and remember we only have three games to choose from on each slate today. As such, we have to find some players to consider here!

Toronto carries the second highest implied team total on the early slate, and it’s not as if the Kings are the strongest defensive team in the league. They rank among the bottom five teams in the league in defensive efficiency, but they will try to slow the pace down. Regardless, you can lock in Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan as elite options. Lowry has picked up his play since the early part of the year, and DeRozan is a model of consistency. The young Sacramento backcourt will struggle to contain them. Both are elite plays in this matchup.

In the frontcourt, things are much less exciting. Jonas Valanciunas has lost minutes to Pascal Siakam, as the latter has looked pretty good over the last few weeks. With the two splitting minutes and Jakob Poeltl also in the mix, it’s tough to rely on any of them. Siakam would be my pick if I had to choose one. Serge Ibaka has been more aggressive offensively of late, and he is a reasonable secondary option as well. The backcourt plays still take priority here.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.5 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (12 of 12)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

Willie Cauley-Stein (Questionable)

It will be important to monitor the status of Willie Cauley-Stein. If he is out again, JaKarr Sampson should draw another start, while Zach Randolph will continue to lead the offense. Randolph has been ageless over the past week, leading the Kings in several games. He is coming off a ridiculous 35 point, 13 rebound performance against DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis the other night. While he is certainly playing over his head for a 36 year old, it’s tough to ignore him if WCS is out again. It’s tough to rely on Sampson, as he only played 12 minutes in the last game, and you could see the Kings go small quite often.

Outside of Randolph, this team is nearly impossible to peg. The Kings use some of the most unpredictable rotations in the league. They are slowly giving more minutes to De’Aaron Fox and Frank Mason in the backcourt, and those two would be my preferred options of the group. Buddy Hield has also put up 30+ fantasy points in three straight games, making him a fine risk/reward GPP option. There is some element of risk with all three of these guys given the Kings’ inconsistent rotations, though. This is never a very exciting team to target.

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 95.6 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 (2 of 12)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Zach Randolph

Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox, Frank Mason (GPP), Buddy Hield (GPP)

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons – 4:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		202.5					Vegas Total		202.5
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		101.8					Implied Team Total		100.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	9	14	30	9	9		DvP	2	1	12	1	14
DRPM Rat.	24	17	11	29	2		DRPM Rat.	19	1	3	2	1

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Morris (Questionable)

If Marcus Morris returns today, the Celtics will be fully healthy for the first time in a while. That adds a lot of uncertainty to the wing players, as Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart, and Morris will all be vying for minutes at two positions, with the guards also shifting over the point when Kyrie Irving is off the floor. In a relatively low total game that could be a slog at times, I can’t really endorse any of these guys. The Pistons are not necessarily weak with their wing defense, either, though Avery Bradley has not been the same player this year. I’ll pass on this group today, though Brown has some interesting GPP upside.

Kyrie Irving would be the one player I could see prioritizing from this Boston team. He is coming off a phenomenal performance against the Spurs the other night with 36 points, though he had an empty line with just one rebound and one assist in the game. I don’t mind his individual matchup against the Detroit point guards, making Irving one of the strongest plays on the afternoon slate. Al Horford has been boom-or-bust at the center spot this year, and the general consensus should be to prefer Drummond on the other side of this game if you are looking for a big man; more on that in a minute. Horford struggled in the last meeting between these teams. It’s hard to endorse anyone outside of Irving here.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 104.5 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (10 of 12)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving

Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown, Al Horford

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

Jon Leuer (Out)

26 points. 22 rebounds. Six assists. Four steals. That was the line Andre Drummond put up when these teams met two weeks ago. He is playing almost four more minutes per game this year, and he has improved his free throw shooting by over 20%. The train is a runaway freight liner at this point, and Drummond is undoubtedly the top center play on the afternoon slate. Of course, I wouldn’t go in expecting the same line that he put up in the last meeting, but the upside is very much there.

Tobias Harris is as steady as they come, and he can certainly be considered an elite cash game play at his mid-range price point. We do need to find some value on this afternoon set of games, and while it’s not necessarily exciting to target Avery Bradley, he is in play here today. This is a revenge game for him, and he did come alive with 25 points against the Warriors in the last game. He has been a disaster at times this year, but the minutes should be there today. Fire him up as a value option this afternoon. Reggie Jackson carries some upside at the point and can be considered as a tournament option. Ish Smith never sees more than about 24 minutes in a game, but his per minute production is solid, and he’s a risk/reward punt play. I wouldn’t get carried away with Detroit exposure against a good defensive team, but remember that we are dealing with a short slate here.

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -3.6 (11 of 12)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Tobias Harris (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris (GPP), Avery Bradley, Reggie Jackson, Ish Smith (GPP)

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers – 5:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		6.5					Vegas Spread		-6.5
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		112.0
			Pace Projection +/-		1.1					Pace Projection +/-		-0.1
Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Will Barton	Wilson Chandler	Mason Plumlee		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	16	2	19	30		DvP	28	5	15	29	2
DRPM Rat.	6	1	28	10	8		DRPM Rat.	27	3	29	26	23

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

Jamal Murray (Probable)
Paul Millsap (Out)
Nikola Jokic (Out)

Denver continues to be very thin up front, as Paul Millsap is going to be sidelined for a while and Nikola Jokic remains out. This has forced Mike Malone to go with a tighter rotation, though he still enjoys playing games with his players and with fantasy owners. He will not hesitate to pull someone that isn’t playing well. Will Barton entered the starting lineup the other night, and his minutes are definitely the most secure on this team. He has played 41, 34, and 43 minutes in the last three games, posting solid all around box score lines in the process. Fire him up as an elite play in what projects to be the highest scoring game on the afternoon slate despite a tough individual draw against Victor Oladipo. Jamal Murray is a little banged up and carries more risk, but he can be considered as a GPP option assuming he suits up today.

Even though he remained in the starting lineup the other night, Mason Plumlee played just 18 minutes against the Magic. His role is declining in favor of Kenneth Faried and Trey Lyles. I like the latter duo as potential values on this slate. Lyles has been very impressive with his limited court time of late, and his minutes are trending in the right direction. There is certainly risk given Malone’s rotations, but they are very much viable on a three game afternoon slate. Wilson Chandler has returned, but he takes a back seat on this team and really isn’t on my radar at this point.

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 107.1 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (8 of 12)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Will Barton, Kenneth Faried (GPP), Trey Lyles (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kenneth Faried (Cash), Trey Lyles (Cash), Jamal Murray

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Bojan Bogdanovic (Questionable)
Darren Collison (Questionable)
Lance Stephenson (Questionable)
Thaddeus Young (Questionable)
Glenn Robinson (Out)

I have no idea what to write about this Pacers team. They have the highest implied team total on the early slate at 110+ points, but who is going to suit up? Three starters and one key bench player are listed as questionable. In essence, we can consider whoever plays. Victor Oladipo has been fantastic for his new team and will certainly shoulder more of the offensive load if some of the other starters sit out. Myles Turner should also be a fine play, and it’s ironic that he is one of the only starters that isn’t on the injury report, after he has spent his share of time as questionable this week. We could also see a ton of value open up if two or three players are sidelined.

The best I can do here is to say to keep an eye on the news. Collison is the big one to watch, as Cory Joseph would become an elite value if Collison can’t go. Domantas Sabonis would get a boost if Young can’t play. This is a very important situation to monitor if you are playing the early slate.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.4 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 (3 of 12)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Cory Joseph (IF Collison is out), Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner (IF Young is out)

Secondary Plays – Myles Turner (IF Young is in), TBA depending on injury status

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves – 7:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks							Minnesota Timberwolves
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		8.0					Vegas Spread		-8.0
			Implied Team Total		99.5					Implied Team Total		107.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.0
Projected Starters	Yogi Ferrell	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Maxi Kleber	Dirk Nowitzki		Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	17	8	4	24		DvP	23	19	4	24	23
DRPM Rat.	14	2	28	6	28		DRPM Rat.	1	28	30	15	16

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Dennis Smith Jr. (Doubtful)
Seth Curry (Out)

Now we pivot our way over to another three game slate, and the evening games get kick started with Dallas traveling to Minnesota. It sounds like Dennis Smith Jr. is going to miss another game here, so that will open up some minutes in the backcourt. J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell will be the primary beneficiaries. Although Ferrell drew the start the other night, it was Barea who put up the bigger fantasy line and played more minutes. That is not an uncommon occurrence, and Barea is by far the higher upside fantasy option. He is the play you want to look at from this group, assuming Smith is out, of course. Ferrell can be left on the table. Wesley Matthews is coming off an 11-for-15 shooting game and is also a decent option, though he will likely have to deal with the defense of Jimmy Butler at times in this game. I’ve been burned by Matthews too many times in past years, and we all know by now that one good game doesn’t necessarily mean another one is coming for him.

There is only one player from the frontcourt that is even worth considering for Dallas, and that is Harrison Barnes. He has played at least 29 minutes in every single game this season, and he carries a 27% usage rate with Dennis Smith off the floor. That is second on the team to the aforementioned Barea. Barnes will almost always lead the team in shot attempts, and he has been a very steady performer. Even though he isn’t the sexiest name for DFS purposes, he gets the job done. I can’t trust Dirk Nowitzki in limited minutes at this stage of his career.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 100.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.5 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (7 of 12)

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.4 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes, J.J. Barea (IF Smith is out)

Secondary Plays – Yogi Ferrell (IF Smith is out), Wesley Matthews

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

Nemanja Bjelica (Questionable)

DFS players around the world love Tom Thibodeau for his tight rotations and reliable minutes distributions. Tyus Jones played a ton of minutes last month when Jeff Teague was hurt, and he played well in those minutes. However, as soon as Teague returned from injury, Jones drifted back into fantasy irrelevance. Only eight players see the court on a regular basis, and all the starters tend to play 36+ minutes in close games. As such, we can almost always target any of the starters, especially on short slates. While this isn’t necessarily a mouth-watering matchup against the Mavericks, the playing time carries plenty of appeal, and this isn’t necessarily the most exciting short slate. Fire up your Wolves in all formats.

Taj Gibson has been one of the biggest fantasy surprises of the year, and he kept it rolling with 16 points and 14 rebounds in the last game. Both Gibson and Jimmy Butler are Thibodeau favorites going back to the Chicago days, and they are thriving in Minnesota. Teague has been solid since he returned from injury. Andrew Wiggins can always fill up the scoreboard, though he doesn’t contribute a ton in other categories. The biggest disappointment on this team has been Karl-Anthony Towns. He seems to be struggling to co-exist with Butler and with a new coach, but this is a get right spot against a Mavericks team that often struggles on the glass. It’s tough to consider Towns as a guy who is worth the high DFS price tags on a lot of slates, but Dallas ranks 26th in the league in rebounding differential. Hopefully KAT can get it going here.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense

Points Per Game: 107.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (4 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (6 of 12)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (Cash), Andrew Wiggins

Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							New Orleans Pelicans
			Vegas Total		223.5					Vegas Total		223.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		109.5					Implied Team Total		114.0
			Pace Projection +/-		2.4					Pace Projection +/-		4.0
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Jrue Holiday	Ian Clark	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	26	24	27	6		DvP	14	23	26	17	27
DRPM Rat.	12	29	27	1	4		DRPM Rat.	1	27	1	29	3

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Robert Covington (Doubtful)
T.J. McConnell (Questionable)

This Sixers team that takes the floor tonight is going to look a lot different than the one that took the court last night. Joel Embiid rested yesterday, but he is going to play today (and what a fun matchup this will be against the Pelicans). Robert Covington is likely not going to play today after injuring his back yesterday. T.J. McConnell is a question mark for this one. New acquisition Trevor Booker is already in the mix and played 20 minutes last night. If we fire up the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool, we see that Joel Embiid carries a whopping 39% usage rate with Covington off the floor. He is one of the best plays on this entire slate, and he is right there with the big men on the other side.

J.J. Redick also sees a boost in usage with Covington off the floor, but his fantasy production has actually declined in those instances. I’ll attribute a lot of that to sample size noise. I’ll give him a boost if Covington can’t go. Dario Saric returned from an eye issue yesterday and posted a solid 17/9/6 line in heavy minutes. He has earned a healthy role on this team and will have secure minutes going forward. The reserve frontcourt players might get a boost as well if Covington sits, but it’s tough to figure out how the minutes will shake out among Amir Johnson, Richaun Holmes, and Trevor Booker. None of them played more than 21 minutes on Saturday despite the fact that Embiid was out.

The last fantasy option here, of course, is Ben Simmons. He has shown all-around upside on a nightly basis, and I like his odds of getting the best of Rajon Rondo. You might see New Orleans put Jrue Holiday on him at times, but Simmons is a physical and athletic mismatch for most NBA guards. His versatility is truly amazing. While he won’t be my priority guy to spend up on this evening, there’s no reason that you actively have to avoid him.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.0 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (5 of 12)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (7 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid, Dario Saric and J.J. Redick (IF Covington is out)

Secondary Plays – Dario Saric and J.J. Redick (IF Covington plays), Ben Simmons

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

Jameer Nelson (Doubtful)

Anthony Davis is back for the Pelicans, and that will make us question the merits of paying up for the two big men for the Pelicans. In a relative sense, DeMarcus Cousins was largely disappointing while Davis was sidelined, which was surprising on a lot of levels. With Davis active on Friday, Cousins responded with a 38/11/4 line in the overtime loss to the Kings, though he did commit eight turnovers. I do worry about him potentially getting in foul trouble against Embiid, which makes Cousins more of a GPP play here. Davis seems like the safer play, though he might not be ready for his full complement of minutes just yet. He was supposed to be held to 25 minutes on Friday, but that went out the window when the game went to overtime. I am largely splitting hairs here, but I think I prefer Embiid out of the three big men in this game.

Rajon Rondo was given a surprise rest day in the last game, but the good news is that he should be good to go for his usual 28-30 minute role tonight. I don’t like the minutes cap that he seems to have, plus his price has risen to reflect his November performance. That drops him to secondary status for me. Jrue Holiday takes a bit of a hit with both big men healthy and is also nothing more than a secondary play at his current price. The same goes for E’Twaun Moore, who perhaps takes the biggest hit of the group. Basically, all the guards are over-priced based on their performances with Davis sidelined. Now that Davis is back in the mix, we have to wait for the prices to correct downward before we get excited again.

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 109.4 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 (1 of 12)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.1 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.0 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore

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