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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 13th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Cleveland at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM

Cleveland L.A. Clippers
clevelandnba Vegas Total 207 laclippersnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 95.53 Team Pace 98.51
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 6 5 11 8 21 Opp. Season 20 6 7 1 1
Opp. Last 7 14 2 25 18 14 Opp. Season 18 30 12 4 12


Cleveland

Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.14 (8 of 30)

The Clippers have been a very solid defensive team this year. They are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, rebounding differential and fantasy points allowed per game. The Cavaliers have a projected team total of 105.0, which is the highest team total on the board and 1.5 points higher than their season average. Mo Williams is currently out for the game today, while Kevin Love said he should suit up. Check the news on Love as if he does play, he makes a decent secondary play for his price and the matchup.

Elite Plays

Lebron James

Lebron James is an elite play today at the small forward position as the Cavs have the highest team total on the board in a game that should be close throughout as they are just 1.5 point favorites. While the matchup on paper is not the greatest (Clippers are ranked 11th against the small forward position) LeBron went off for 22 points and 12 assists and 5 rebounds against Clippers earlier this year and should be fired up for the nationally televised game today.

FD — $9,900 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
Usage – 31.2
Min/Game — Season: 35.8

Secondary Plays

Tristan Thompson

While I don’t love that his price went up because of his performances with Love and Mozgov out the last two games, Thompson is still in line for 30+ minutes and just needs about 25 points for value today. The early slate lacks value at the power forward position, which makes TT a viable play today.

FD — $5,000 — PF
DK — $5,200 — PF
Usage – 11.8
Min/Game — Season: 28.3

L.A. Clippers

Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 3.7 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.7 (3 of 30)

The Cavaliers have been an elite defensive squad this season. They are ranked in the top four in the league in points allowed, rebounding differential and fantasy points allowed per game. The Clippers have a projected team total of 103.5 and are slight underdogs against the Cavs. Paul Pierce is currently 50/50 on playing this afternoon, while Luc Mbah a Moute could play. If both guys are out, Jeff Green is worth a tournament look.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul

This Clippers squad starts and ends with Chris Paul at the moment. He has been extremely consistent recently and has at least 42 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He has a solid matchup against Irving and the Cavs’ 20th ranked defense against point guards making him a top play at the position today.

FD — $10,100 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
Usage – 27.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.3

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan has played some much better basketball recently as he has been over 44 fantasy points in four of his last five games. The matchup puts him into the secondary category at the center position and more of a tournament play due to his price, but the potential is there right now with Jordan and he should be low owned at his price.

FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $7,700 — C
Usage – 31.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.9

J.J. Redick

Redick is not going to win you any tournaments, but the shooting guard position is not exactly packed with plays today. Redick has hit 22 fantasy points in each of his last three games and should come close to that today in what should be a high scoring matchup. The risk is there as he is so scoring dependent, but at his price, he should hit value.

FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $4,900 — SG
Usage – 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.6


Indiana at Atlanta – 06:00 PM

Indiana Atlanta
indiananba Vegas Total 197 atlantanba Vegas Total 197
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 99.16 Team Pace 98.97
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 5 18 13 16 24 Opp. Season 10 13 6 12 13
Opp. Last 7 2 29 9 2 3 Opp. Season 7 1 18 26 27


Indiana

Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.9 (14 of 30)

The Hawks are one of the better defensive squads in the NBA. While they are ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed, they are second in the league in defensive efficiency. The Pacers feature an implied team total of 96.8 points, which is the lowest on the slate and 5.5 points lower than their season average. Ty Lawson and Joseph Young are both questionable to play today.

Elite Plays

Monta Ellis

What has got into the Monta recently? He has played 34+ minutes in each of his last ten games and has been on fire over his last three with 37.1 fantasy points averaged during that span. The early slate at FD does not have many great options at the shooting guard position, making Ellis a very safe play against the Hawks who are ranked 18th against the position.

FD — $6,600 — SG
DK — $6,100 — SG
Usage – 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.4

Secondary Plays

Paul George

Paul George makes a solid play for tournaments as there are other options in better matchups. With that said, he does have big upside and is a very site specific play today. George is almost a full thousand dollars higher at FD than at DK making him a great play at DraftKings today due to the savings.

FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,100 — SF
Usage – 29.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.5

Ian Mahinmi

This is simply a low cost play at the center position if you do not want to spend elite dollars on the big name guys who are in tough matchups. While I would rather pay a bit more for Robin Lopez on the full day slate to be my low cost center on FanDuel, at DraftKings, Mahinmi is a full $1,200 dollars less than Lopez putting him in play if you want to punt the position.

Atlanta

Indiana Pacers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.88 (9 of 30)

The Pacers are a tough defensive team this year that are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks have a projected team total of 101.3 in this game today, which is .8 points lower than their season average. The Hawks look fully healthy, other than Tiago Splitter, who is out.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

Millsap continues to be one of the most consistent options at the power forward position regardless of the matchup. He is not going to give you too many duds in your lineups, while not usually winning you tournaments single handedly either. He is more of a cash game play today in what on paper is a tough matchup against the Pacers (12th ranked PF defense), but still a great play in all formats.

FD — $7,800 — PF
DK — $7,600 — PF
Usage – 23.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.7

Secondary Plays

Kent Bazemore

While Horford is in play as well, I feel that there are better plays that are just above or just below his price point today. Bazemore on the other hand is playing in a spot that does not feature to many value plays today. He is not playing his best basketball of the season, but is getting close to 30 minutes per game and is averaging 11/6/5 in three matchups against the Pacers this year.

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,100 — SF
Usage – 18.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.4


Utah at Sacramento – 06:00 PM

Utah Sacramento
utahnba Vegas Total 205 sacramentonba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 93.60 Team Pace 102.48
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy
Opp. Season 24 29 23 29 17 Opp. Season 11 2 2 2 2
Opp. Last 7 19 25 24 29 1 Opp. Season 25 3 1 22 9


Utah

Sacramento Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +0.4 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.01 (29 of 30)

The Kings have been a team to target all year long as they are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They are ranked 30th and 29th in the league in points allowed and fantasy points allowed respectively. Utah is slight two point favorites in this matchup and have a projected team total of 103.8 in what is a big pace up game for them and 6.2 points higher than their season average. Alec Burks continues to be listed as out for the Jazz.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

Favors makes a great play today as he has an elite matchup against the Kings who are ranked 29th in the league at defending the power forward position. He has been playing some solid basketball recently and has only had one poor game over his last ten. The pace up nature of this game for Favors puts him into play as the top power forward of the early slate and right up there as top of the whole day slate as well.

FD — $7,300 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
Usage – 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.5

Gordon Hayward

Hayward is in play in what is a big time pace up game for the Jazz where all their starters are in play due to the matchup. Hayward plays 35+ minutes for the Jazz and for under 7k at both major sites he makes a great play as he has averaged 41 fantasy points in two previous matchups against the Kings.

FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $6,900 — SF
Usage – 25.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.2

Shelvin Mack

Mack looks like he is finally starting to feel comfortable in Utah. He should be a popular play today due to his 33.6 fantasy point game on Friday and if he continues to see 30+ minutes, he makes an elite play at this price, in a top matchup.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,600 — PG
Usage – 28.1
Min/Game — Season: 14.4

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gobert

Gobert makes for a great mid-priced play at the center position and one could argue one of the safer plays of the early slate due to the fact that the higher priced guys have such tough matchups. While he will have to battle DeMarcus Cousins in his return to the court and struggled in their first matchup, Gobert has been playing some solid basketball over his last ten games and is priced fairly across the industry.

FD — $6,700 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
Usage – 13.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.9

Rodney Hood

With Hood you are getting a low priced shooting guard who will likely see about 30-35 minutes of action in the best matchup on the board. He has not been over 30 fantasy points in his last nine games, but he is still seeing the court a ton and gets a great pace up game today against the 29th ranked defense against the SG position.

FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,100 — SG
Usage – 21.0
Min/Game — Season: 31.6

Sacramento

Utah Jazz Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +2.6 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 186.28 (2 of 30)

Utah is one of the slower paced teams as well as one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked in the top three in the league in both points allowed and fantasy points allowed per game, which is why the Kings’ projected team total is a full 5.8 points lower than their season average (101.3). The Kings are tied with the second lowest team total on the board and have DeMarcus Cousins returning to the lineup. Ben McLemore is doubtful for the game tonight and if he sits, Darren Collison will get a nice bump in minutes.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

With the low total and the return of DeMarcus it is tough to recommend the Kings tonight. With that said, DeMarcus Cousins is always in play in tournament settings as he has the biggest upside of any center playing or power forward tonight. It will be interesting to see if he gets his full allotment of minutes for the squad tonight though after what happened on the bench the other night. Rudy Gay continues to be very cheap for his upside potential, but again the matchup keeps him at a tournament play only.


Milwaukee at Brooklyn – 08:00 PM

Milwaukee Brooklyn
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 207 brooklynnba Vegas Total 207
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 102.5
Team Pace 96.89 Team Pace 96.92
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee Proj Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 27 23 19 19 23 Opp. Season 7 25 24 21 20
Opp. Last 7 10 15 23 17 6 Opp. Season 8 6 22 7 30


Milwaukee

Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.10 (24 of 30)

Brooklyn has been a team that you can target safely for daily fantasy purposes. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks feature the second highest projected team total at 104.0, which is 5.6 points higher than their season average. The Bucks continue to be without all those guards including Mayo, MCW and Vasquez.

Elite Plays

Khris Middleton

Middleton gets the first recommendation due to his price across the industry and his consistency of play. He is still under 8k and continues to see the court for 40+ minutes over his last four games, and has averaged 44 fantasy points over his last two games. He gets a great matchup today against the Nets who are ranked 23rd in the league at defending the shooting guard position.

FD — $7,900 — SG
DK — $7,300 — SG
Usage – 22.3
Min/Game — Season: 36.9

Giannis Antetokounmpo

The guy is playing some off the charts basketball recently and is just putting together quality all-around games each time he takes the floor. His price has skyrocketed to a point where he needs about 50+ fantasy points on FanDuel, but he is still an elite play over at DraftKings where he is $900 cheaper. The matchup is great as Vegas believes this will stay close throughout making him a safe play in all formats.

FD — $9,600 — SF
DK — $8,700 — SF
Usage – 21.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.9

Secondary Plays

Jerryd Bayless

Bayless is the other solid punt play at the point guard position due to all the injuries that have hit the Bucks including the Mayo injury that has secured Bayless for 35+ minutes. Anytime you get a starting point guard who is going to play upwards of 40 minutes per game for around 4k, you have yourself a great play.

FD — $4,200 — PG
DK — $4,700 — PG
Usage – 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.1

Jabari Parker

Another Buck that is in play today is Jabari Parker. While his production has been down a bit over the last two games, he continues to play 38 minutes per game each time out and he has 40 point potential in what is a great matchup against the Nets and their 19th ranked defense against the power forward position.

FD — $6,800 — PF
DK — $6,300 — PF
Usage – 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.9

Brooklyn

Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.39 (21 of 30)

The Bucks are a below-average defensive team this year as they are ranked 18th or lower in all the above defensive categories. The Nets have a projected team total of 102.0, which is 4.2 points higher than their season average. The news to keep an eye out on is the status of both Wayne Ellington and Bojan Bojdanovic who are both currently questionable.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

Lopez makes a solid play at the center position as he takes on the Bucks and their 20th ranked defense against centers. Lopez has been playing some solid basketball recently as he has averaged 42.4 fantasy points over his last five starts. If you are paying up for the center position, Lopez makes a solid upside play and a safe option.

FD — $8,700 — C
DK — $7,800 — C
Usage – 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.9

Thaddeus Young

Thad is also in a very solid matchup against the Bucks today as they are ranked 21st in the league at defending the power forward position. Young has been playing big minutes recently (32+ in his last 10 starts) and has averaged 33.1 fantasy points during that stretch. I have him just under Favors and Millsap today as the top options at the position.

FD — $6,900 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
Usage – 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.2

Secondary Plays

Check the news on the injuries to Wayne Ellington and Bojan Bojdanovic. If neither can suit up, it would give guys like Markel Brown and Sean Kilpatrick more minutes and give a slight boost to Donald Sloan. Markel Brown being the biggest benefactor.


New York at L.A. Lakers – 09:30 PM

New York L.A. Lakers
newyorknba Vegas Total 205 lalakersnba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 103.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 95.96 Team Pace 97.95
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 28 28 23 28 Opp. Season 19 16 9 6 16
Opp. Last 7 17 12 6 10 15 Opp. Season 23 22 3 11 13


New York

Los Angeles Lakers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.7 (30 of 30)

The Lakers are always one of the best teams to target in all formats. They are ranked 26th or worse in all the above defensive categories and are slight underdogs today against the incoming Knicks. The Knicks feature a projected team total of 103.8, which is 4.5 points higher than their season average. Arron Afflalo and Lance Thomas are currently questionable for this game. If Afflalo cannot suit up, Sasha Vujacic would become a solid punt at the shooting guard position.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

There are a number of solid plays at the small forward position today as it looks like the one you have to pay up for today. Anthony is in the est spot of all the top options at the position as he takes on the Lakers and their 28th ranked defense against the small forward position. Melo has a floor recently of just about 35 points, which may be the lowest of the stud SFs, but he has tremendous upside in this matchup against the Lakers putting him clearly in play for a reduced price than the other top options (at FD).

FD — $8,900 — SF
DK — $8,300 —SF
Usage – 28.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.4

Robin Lopez

Lopez is the top punt option at the center position at FD as he gets the dream matchup against the Lakers and is coming off two monster games including a 44 minute game against the Clippers. While he will likely be in the 30 minute range for this game, he should crush value against the Lakers and their 28th ranked defense against the center position.

FD — $5,900 — C
DK — $5,900 — C
Usage – 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.4

Secondary Plays

Keep an eye on the Afflalo news. If he plays, he would make a decent shooting guard option. If he is out, that bumps Porzingis’ usage a bit more and instead of a secondary play would be elite in a great matchup. Sasha Vujacic would become a solid punt play and Calderon would get a slight bump as well.

L.A. Lakers

New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 197.22 (10 of 30)

The Knicks have been an average defensive team this year and are ranked between 10th and 20th in all the above defensive categories. Vegas does have this game staying close throughout and the Lakers do feature a projected team total of 101.8, which is 3.8 points higher than their season average. Lou Williams looks to be available to play today along with Kobe Bryant that is likely as well. Kobe can be used as a tournament play today since we have seen him put up 35-40 fantasy points and is cheap across the industry. The news really does bump down Jordan Clarkson and does bump down D’Angelo Russell whose usage/minutes could go down with both veteran playing.

Elite Plays

D’Angelo Russell

Even with the Lou and Kobe playing, Russell continues to be in play. Due to his price hike and the return of Lou, he gets a bit of a bump down and is a secondary play, but the big problem here is how many minutes will Williams take away from Russell going forward. We will not exactly know until we see it as Byron Scott has done some odd things with Russell this year. The upside is there in what should be a close matchup, but there is a bit more risk than there has been in Russell’s last few starts.

FD — $7,100 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
Usage – 23.5
Min/Game — Season: 27.9

Secondary Plays

If both Louis Williams and Kobe play, Jordan Clarkson becomes a deep tournament play only as it will be a bit of a risk. Julius Randle is a solid secondary play, but will also see a bit of a bump down with a few shots being taken away.


About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.