NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 4th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-03-04 19:06:02

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Phoenix Suns at Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		222.5					Vegas Total		222.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		110.0					Implied Team Total		112.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.6					Pace Projection +/-		2.9
Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Dragan Bender	Alex Len		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	John Collins	Dewayne Dedmon
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	19	30	28	29		DvP	28	30	18	30	22
DRPM Rat.	30	2	27	12	13		DRPM Rat.	22	28	28	27	19

Phoenix Suns

Notable Injuries

Update – Tyson Chandler is surprisingly starting. This downgrades Alex Len.

Tyson Chandler (Doubtful)

Hello Grinders, Happy Sunday. We have a seven game slate but depending on what site you play on, some games may be omitted. DraftKings split it up into a three-game early slate with a four-game main slate, FanDuel and FantasyDraft cut off the first game so they have a six-game main slate and Yahoo has just a four-game main slate. We’ll go through each game in detail, but just keep in mind some games may not be relevant for you based on where you choose to play.

Shaquille Harrison signed a second 10-day contract with the Suns, so he’ll be available for this game. Harrison had played a season-high 18 minutes two games ago against Memphis while Tyler Ulis was a DNP-CD, making it look like Harrison had supplanted Ulis for the back-up point guard role. However, in the Suns’ last game against the Thunder, Harrison had only played 1 minute while Ulis was once again a DNP-CD. Elfrid Payton played 39 minutes, so where did all the other point guard minutes go?

I decided to look at the RotoGrinders Game Flow Tracker. If you’ve never used it before, I would encourage you to as it’s a great tool to see rotations and minutes. Based on this, we see that when Payton was off the court, Devin Booker was running the point. What also stood out to me was that Josh Jackson played 25 minutes off the bench despite T.J. Warren returning and starting. Jackson had a tremendous game (35.25 DraftKings points in just 26 mintues) and had he not had five fouls, it’s possible he would’ve played more. Notice Jackson and Warren shared the court at times, so Jackson’s minutes came at the expense of Alex Len (who also had a great game with six blocks).

So why is this important? Well, the Hawks are in the bottom half of the league in DvP for every position, and they struggle especially against forwards and centers. As a result, the Suns are implied to score 5.6 more points than their season average in this game. Devin Booker is seeing his price rise but it’s because he’s on an amazing hot streak right now, scoring at least 30 real-life points in four straight games. He’s an elite play. I’ve been using small forwards against the Hawks all season, and I wouldn’t stop now with T.J. Warren. Dennis Schroeder defense isn’t particularly daunting, so Elfrid Payton makes for a fantastic play as well. Lastly, with Tyson Chandler doubtful, I’d be willing to go back to the well with Alex Len against a weak Hawks defense.

Given what I said above about Josh Jackson, I’m listing him as a secondary play, but a solid one for tournaments. Since it appears his minutes are coming at the expense of Alex Len, I probably wouldn’t pair the two together but would rather stagger them in my lineups since they don’t appear to be complementary. The last player I’ll mention is Dragan Bender simply because he’s been getting a boatload of minutes. He amazingly took just one shot in 37 minutes against the Thunder, which is obviously going to limit any upside he has. Let that sink in for a second – Bender plays for a team ranked 4th in pace, played 37 minutes against Carmelo Anthony defense, and could only muster one shot. That’s impressive. He’s dirt cheap around the industry so if you’re looking for a deep GPP-dart throw, he fits the mold.

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 104.4 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (5 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 5.6 (5 of 14)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Devin Booker, Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren

Secondary Plays – Dragan Bender, (GPP), Josh Jackson, (GPP), Alex Len

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Update 1:48pm EST – Kent Bazemore is ruled out. Tyler Dorsey will draw the start. I’ll list him as a secondary play given the start and he’s cheap, but he hasn’t flashed much of a ceiling yet.

DeAndre Bembry (Out)

The Hawks are normally a team I avoid but given the elite matchup against the Suns, it’s hard to do that when the Hawks are implied to score an amazing 9 more points than their season average. The Suns are 18th or worse in DvP for every position and are dead last in defensive efficiency. Dennis Schroder is coming off a dominant performance that allowed the Hawks to nearly upset the Warriors, finishing with 37 minutes (tied for the second most minutes he’s played all season). The Hawks have no incentive to win so it’s a bit confusing why they are riding Schroder for 37 minutes when they should be tanking, but he’s an elite play in this matchup. Kent Bazemore is also coming off a career high 29 real-life points in a #revengegame against the Warriors. The Suns are dead last in DvP against shooting guards so I have interest in Bazemore in this spot, but just know he can disappear at times.

I’ll be honest, I don’t know what to do with Taurean Prince. He has the hardest matchup on the Hawks against T.J. Warren, but he’s also been incredible over his last four games. His fantasy points have been boosted by the fact he’s averaging three steals per game during that stretch. I’m going to call him a secondary play given the matchup isn’t ideal and Taurean Prince isn’t exactly the most trustworthy fantasy player, but he has appeal. Maybe it’s my own personal bias that won’t allow me to deem Taurean Prince as elite.

John Collins is incredibly talented but also incredibly frustrating to roster at times. He has a prime matchup as the Suns are last in DvP against power forwards. The main problem with Collins is he has a tendency to get into foul trouble, which can limit his upside. He also generally doesn’t see heavy minutes despite being the starter (I mean, why not give Mike Muscala 20-25 minutes a night, right?). I’m calling him an elite play because of the matchup and talent, but he’s not an all-in type of player for me in case he draws two early fouls and rides the pine for a big chunk of this game.

Dewayne Dedmon profiles as a secondary play as well. He’s someone I think is skilled and possesses a solid floor with GPP-winning upside. But similar to my argument above with Collins, he’s generally not going to see minutes in the mid-to-high 30s.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (4 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 9.0 (1 of 14)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.0 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Collins, Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Dewayne Dedmon (GPP), Tyler Dorsey, Taurean Prince

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards – 6:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		208.5					Vegas Total		208.5
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		102.5					Implied Team Total		106.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-0.7
Projected Starters	Cory Joseph	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner		Projected Starters	Tomas Satoransky	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	6	27	2	9		DvP	9	7	12	12	28
DRPM Rat.	6	13	1	20	9		DRPM Rat.	23	1	27	8	19

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Darren Collison (Out)

Newly-signed Pacer Trevor Booker isn’t expected to make his debut until Monday, which helps us out a bit from a DFS perspective as we should expect the Pacers to deploy their normal rotations today. This game also has the lowest over-under on the day.

For the 5th game in a row, Victor Oladipo costs $10,000 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, his price came down to $8,700. I would prefer to get my Oladipo exposure on DraftKings given the pricing difference. The Wizards have also been solid against shooting guards this season, ranking 6th in DvP against the position. He has slate-breaking potential but I see him as a notch below the other studs at his price in this matchup.

Darren Collison continues to be out, meaning Cory Joseph will run the point for the Pacers. He’s coming off a solid 41-minute performance and I’m not particularly scared of Tomas Satoransky defense. I don’t think we should let recency bias influence us here into thinking Joseph is an elite play. He still profiles more as a secondary play and moreso for cash games given the minutes he’ll get especially at just $4,700 on FanDuel, but Joseph has just a 14.5% usage rate on the season.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner all are interesing. They are all reasonably priced across the industry and carry solid floors. Bogdanovic has the best matchup on paper, while Turner is probably better suited for tournaments than cash games. If you’re playing the early slate on DraftKings, I also don’t mind Lance Stephenson in GPPs.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -4.3 (14 of 14)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK)

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Cory Joseph, Victor Oladipo (FD), Myles Turner (GPP), Lance Stephenson (GPP), Thaddeus Young

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Out)

Your guess is as good as mine as to whether Bradley Beal explodes here. He has a 28% usage rate on the season but can be maddening to roster. The Pacers rank 7th in DvP against shooting guards and he will draw Victor Oladipo defense. The last time I recommended fading a player against Oladipo defense, it was with Nicolas Batum and Batum proceeded to have a spectacular game. Let’s just say some people on Twitter weren’t so nice to me for that call so I’m just putting that out there. I personally will be underweight on Beal in this spot but he’s not someone I would completely fade. His price is much cheaper on FanDuel ($7,900) than on DraftKings ($8,500), so I prefer him more on FanDuel since you have to roster two shooting guards. Also, as a sidenote, why can’t we be nicer on Twitter? After you read this Grind Down, go on Twitter and send someone a nice Tweet. It’ll brighten their day.

I prefer to get my Wizards exposure through Otto Porter, who has been great as of late. He’s been knocking down his three-pointers and racking up peripheral stats. He’s also scored at least 23 real-life points in three of his last four games and has the easier matchup, although he could draw Lance Stephenson defense at some point.

Tomas Satoransky continues to be in-play on every slate he’s on until John Wall returns simply because he’s getting a ton of minutes. He’s now played at least 31 minutes in eight of his last nine games. The matchup isn’t great against the Pacers but he has upside with that amount of playing time.

Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat are both interesting plays at their price points. Morris has seen his minutes rise and he’s played at least 31 minutes over his last three games, so I think he’s in-play in all formats. I’ll admit I’m not a Gortat guy (unless it’s Polish Heritage Night, in which case you just lock the guy in). But centers against the Pacers has been a thing all season, so I’d be remiss not to bring this up. I would prefer Gortat in tournaments mainly on sites where you can roster two centers as the opportunity cost is too great with centers like Joel Embiid and DeAndre Jordan in nut spots for one-center sites.

The only bench player I have any interest in is Kelly Oubre, but he’s mainly a GPP play for salary relief.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.3 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (10 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (11 of 14)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Bradley Beal (FD), Markieff Morris, Otto Porter

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (DK), Marcin Gortat (GPP for sites you can play multiple centers), Kelly Oubre (GPP), Tomas Satoransky

Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		219.0					Vegas Total		219.0
			Vegas Spread		9.0					Vegas Spread		-9.0
			Implied Team Total		105.0					Implied Team Total		114.0
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		0.8
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	4	4	8	17		DvP	14	11	24	14	16
DRPM Rat.	3	22	18	11	14		DRPM Rat.	15	15	9	15	9

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

Cody Zeller (Questionable)

With Cody Zeller questionable once again, that may allow Frank Kaminsky and Willy Hernangomez to grab a few extra minutes should Zeller miss the game. Dwight Howard is coming off a disappointing performance against the 76ers that saw him struggle in all aspects of the game. Much of it was driven by the fact he dealt with foul trouble, but he also missed all four of his free throws and took just seven shots in 25 minutes. Toronto is below-average against guarding centers so this should be a bounce-back spot for Howard, and his ownership may come in lower than normal due to recency bias so I don’t hate the idea of using him in tournaments. He had 38.1 FanDuel points against the Raptors back in early February, so he’s had some recent success.

It’s hard to ignore how great Kemba Walker has been this season but I don’t know if this is the spot to play him on FanDuel. He’s $7,900 there and the most expensive point guard. In comparison, he’s just $7,400 on DraftKings. I also respect this Raptors team and Kyle Lowry defense. I will say this – Kemba will probably be low owned (especially on FanDuel) so if you’re someone who loves targeting low-owned players in tournaments, I can see the appeal of Kemba. Point-per-dollar, I think I would rather go elsewhere and if I’m playing him, it’s probably over on DraftKings.

Nicolas Batum has been on a roll, scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. I love him for tournaments but similar to what I said above with Kemba, he’s not someone I’m going out of my way to grab given the difficult matchup. If he happens to be the last player on my roster, I don’t hate it. As for Marvin Williams, he’s not someone that interests me in a tough matchup.

The only bench player I’d look at is Frank Kaminsky. It’s a deep GPP dart throw and mainly if Zeller is ruled out. This game is opening with Toronto favored by 9 and if this game happens to get out of hand, Frank The Tank may get some extra run. Jeremy Lamb on FanDuel is also somewhat interesting at just $4,500 but my biggest concern with him is that he hasn’t played more than 27 minutes in a game since Christmas, and even though the Hornets had been battling injuries recently with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the minutes went to Treveon Graham. As a result, he’s nothing more than a GPP-punt on FanDuel in my eyes who will need to make the most of his limited playing time.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (12 of 14)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Kemba Walker (DK)

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (GPP), Frank Kaminsky (GPP), Jeremy Lamb (FD GPP), Kemba Walker (FD)

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

OG Anunoby (Out)

The Original Gangsta Anunoby is out for this game, so Norman Powell should draw another start although he failed to score in 17 minutes last game so he’s not someone on my radar. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are in neutral matchups but warrant consideration on this slate. I’m going to call them elite plays but I’m listing them as elite mainly for their floors in cash games. In tournaments, I think you can still play them but I would rather drop down to a tier below them and hope for a similar score. An example would be Spencer Dinwiddie or Dennis Smith Jr. who are cheaper on FanDuel but could easily match Lowry’s output given their nice matchups.

I personally don’t have much interest in Serge Ibaka as I’m concerned about his ceiling in this game. If there’s a big man I’m going to play, I’d rather roll the dice on Jonas Valanciunas. In theory the Raptors will need his size to match up against Dwight. But theory doesn’t always work when it comes to Valanciunas, who is the ultimate GPP play given how his minutes get yanked around. He did drop 40.25 DraftKings points against the Hornets the last time they met, so I think he has elite tournament upside but I wouldn’t go near him in cash.

I honestly think the Raptors’ second unit is better than some first units in the NBA. I’m not going to go into detail on them but if you need a punt, Jakob Poeltl, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam and Fred Vanvleet are all viable if you need cheapies.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.0 (2 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.7 (8 of 14)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Raptors bench unit of C.J. Miles, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks – 7:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total		223.0					Vegas Total		223.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.5					Vegas Spread		3.5
			Implied Team Total		113.3					Implied Team Total		109.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.2					Pace Projection +/-		3.0
Projected Starters	Rajon Rondo	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Anthony Davis	Emeka Okafor		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Dirk Nowitzki	Dwight Powell
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	21	9	13	18	12		DvP	22	26	26	21	13
DRPM Rat.	29	26	29	24	4		DRPM Rat.	22	2	30	1	15

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

Update 11:55am – Emeka Okafor is now questionable.

Emeka Okafor (Probable)

Anthony Davis headlines this Sunday slate and would be my main target in cash games and tournaments. I suppose you could always justify a fade of Brow with the hope he gets hurt, but given the hot streak he’s on that’s not a chance I’m willing to take. He’s coming off a disappointing performance against the Spurs, but in all honestly, it’s disappointing in the sense that he didn’t drop another 90-burger. He still had 26 points and 15 rebounds against the Spurs, who rank 2nd in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pelicans are just one game back of the #3 seed in the Western Conference, so expect them to continue riding Brow until his legs fall off (knowing Anthony Davis, his legs may actually fall off during a game).

Rajon Rondo has now strung together three stellar games in a row and has a chance to face the Mavericks in Dallas for a #revengegame. Rondo can be volatile but the Mavericks rank 21st in DvP against point guards and Dennis Smith Jr. can be picked on. I like Rondo in this spot. Jrue Holiday has also been fantastic during this stretch without Boogie Cousins. He’s $8,200 on DraftKings but $7,800 on FanDuel, so I prefer him on FanDuel. This game opened with a 223 over/under and is half a point more than the Suns/Hawks game, which gives you a sense that Vegas is expecting this game to shoot out. I prefer Rondo over Holiday factoring in price, but I don’t hate the idea of pairing Holiday with Brow in tournaments and soaking up tons of the Pelicans’ usage.

E’Twaun Moore is fine as a secondary piece if you need salary relief and want exposure to this game. He’s played at least 29 minutes in five straight games and he should continue to see decent minutes.

Nikola Mirotic’s role will depend on the status of Emeka Okafor. He started for Okafor in the second half of their last game but Okafor is expected to play. I personally prefer Mirotic off the bench leading the second unit. To be fair, Okafor only sees minutes in the teens anyway so Mirotic will get heavy run regardless. He’s capable of lighting up the scoreboard in a hurry so he’s firmly in-play for GPPs.

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 112.1 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.3 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (9 of 14)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday (FD), Rajon Rondo

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (DK), Nikola Mirotic (GPP), E’Twaun Moore

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Wesley Matthews (Questionable)

We’ll need to monitor the status of Wesley Matthews. He’s questionable and played just 31 minutes on Friday. If he’s out, we could see Yogi Ferrell or J.J. Barea draw the start. Both would be interesting in this juicy matchup, but keep in mind the Mavericks are fine with tanking and have no incentive to win. Heck, they even gave Nerlens Noel 15 minutes on Friday in an effort to help him boost his stock and land a contract this off-season. He’s min priced on DraftKings and is nothing more than a YOLO GPP play.

If I’m aiming for players on the Mavs, it’ll likely be the younger players they are trying to develop such as Dennis Smith Jr. and Dwight Powell. I’d expect Powell to start against Anthony Davis as he’s their best chance of limiting him. Powell has been flashing tremendous upside lately and I like him as a contrarian play on this slate, especially on FanDuel. DSJ also has a great matchup against Rajon Rondo, who isn’t exactly a defensive wizard. The Pelicans are among the bottom-third of the league in DvP for the guard and forward positions, so this is a great spot to take advantage of.

Harrison Barnes has played well as of late and has appeal in a nice matchup against the Pelicans. He’s never someone I go out of my way to roster but I don’t mind him on this slate. The same can be said of Dirk Nowitzki. I only have interest because he’s playing the Pelicans but I’d prefer to target the younger players on the Mavs.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 102.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (6 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 7.7 (3 of 14)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (2 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Smith Jr., Dwight Powell (FD)

Secondary Plays – J.J. Barea (GPP – if Wesley Matthews is out), Harrison Barnes, Yogi Ferrell (if Wesley Matthews is out), Wesley Matthews (if he plays), Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Milwaukee Bucks
			Vegas Total		210.0					Vegas Total		210.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		104.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.7					Pace Projection +/-		2.0
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Dario Saric	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	Eric Bledsoe	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	John Henson
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	8	8	2	9	26		DvP	11	20	20	16	14
DRPM Rat.	7	25	24	2	6		DRPM Rat.	1	26	1	25	2

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

None

This has the makings of a Joel Embiid blowup spot. The Bucks rank 29th in DvP against centers and have been a goldmine for opposing centers. Embiid is one of my favorite players on this slate but the price makes it hard to jam in both Brow and Embiid if you decide to go that route. There are viable centers below Embiid if you decide to take the savings, but the spot doesn’t get much better on paper.

The Bucks rank among the top 9 in DvP for every other position, making this a spot where I don’t have a lot of interest in Dario Saric, Robert Covington or J.J. Redick. Ben Simmons is interesting strictly from a game theory perspective. He should go low owned on this slate given the difficult matchup and his price tag. I don’t think he should be a complete fade if you’re building multiple teams, but he’s not someone I’m prioritizing on this slate.

The 76ers have added Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli, which has given them a deep second unit. Both are getting around 20 minutes a night, and their additions seem to have also impacted T.J. McConnell negatively as he’s failed to reach 15 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. All three are viable punts if you need savings, with my preference being Ilyasova.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (11 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -1.9 (13 of 14)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.8 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons, Ersan Ilyasova

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries

Matthew Dellavedova (Out), Tony Snell (Probable)

40 year old Jason Terry drew the start in the Bucks’ last game and played 36 minutes. Thankfully, Tony Snell is expected back so we don’t have to witness that again.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is in an interesting spot on Sunday. The 76ers rank 4th in defensive efficiency as a team and aren’t a team I try to pick on. With my eyes on Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid, I find myself less interested in Giannis. I’m not sure if that’s just me or if others feel the same way, but if the industry is feeling that too, Giannis makes for a fantastic tournament play at potential lower ownership. His price is tempting on DraftKings at $10,000, and while he’s $11,000 on FanDuel, he makes some sense there given you have to roster two small forwards.

Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe profile as secondary plays against this stout 76ers defense. I’m not a fan of playing point guards against Ben Simmons or small forwards against Robert Covington. I’d rather take a shot on Jabari Parker playing in the second unit against the 76ers backups. Parker is seeing about 24-25 minutes a game but he’s averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute, making him viable despite the limited workload.

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 (10 of 14)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.9 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Jabari Parker

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