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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-16 05:47:26

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers New Orleans Pelicans
indiananba Vegas Total 210.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 27 14 22 27 18 DvP 19 23 18 21 14
DRPM -0.66 -2.62 0.17 2.35 -0.29 DRPM 0.23 -1.39 -0.63 0.74 1.66

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are back to .500 overall. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential on the season. Both of these teams are ranked in the top half of the league in pace of play and the game has a healthy over/under of 210.5 points. The Pacers have an implied total of 104 points. While their total is the third lowest in the slate, this is still an exploitable matchup.

If you use our awesome CourtIQ tool and run the query for the Pacers with Monta Ellis on and off the floor, you will see that Jeff Teague sees a 4% usage boost without Ellis in the lineup. Teague hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he draws a get right matchup against a Pelicans’ defense that is ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed per game to point guards. Glenn Robinson continues to start at shooting guard, but C.J. Miles is the preferred target off the bench. He could push for up to 30 minutes with Rodney Stuckey out. Paul George has played well since coming back from his injury. I slightly prefer Kawhi Leonard at a similar price point, but George is a great pivot in tournaments. Myles Turner is averaging 1.04 FP/min this season and has averaged 34 minutes in his last four games. If this is a trend that is going to continue, we want to target him now before his price goes up.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,000 $6,400 $10,400 1.01 31.7 0.2 32.1 -4.9 26.0% -5.0% 27 -0.66
Glenn Robinson $4,400 $3,900 $6,700 0.62 18.9 -0.6 11.8 0.1 13.5% -7.2% 14 -2.62
Paul George $8,300 $8,100 $12,900 1.03 35.3 2.0 36.5 1.3 26.6% 1.2% 22 0.17
Thaddeus Young $4,900 $4,800 $9,900 0.76 29.8 -0.2 22.7 1.5 16.5% -0.4% 27 2.35
Myles Turner $6,200 $6,000 $10,400 1.04 28.9 3.7 30.2 3.8 19.5% -1.9% 18 -0.29
Rodney Stuckey $3,900 $3,600 $7,400 0.72 21.1 4.2 15.2 4.5 21.7% -2.6% 14 N/A
C.J. Miles $4,600 $4,000 $8,200 0.87 21.4 -0.9 18.6 0.2 19.1% -3.2% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Myles Turner, C.J. Miles

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Paul George, Glenn Robinson

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are a much better team with Jrue Holiday on the floor than they are without him; plain and simple. They have been much more competitive recently and are actually favored at home tonight against the Pacers. This is an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, as the Pacers are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 28th in rebounding differential this season. New Orleans comes into the game with an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 3.7 points above their season average.

Tim Frazier is not expected to play tonight, which should result in a full complement of minutes for Jrue Holiday. He has had a boom or bust nature to his game this season, but he is averaging a fantasy point per minute with a true usage rate of 28.8%. Jeff Teague is a mediocre defender and my plan is to heavily attack both of these point guards in tournaments. I always like pairing up the opposing point guards in hopes that the game turns into a shootout. Langston Galloway should also see a boost with Frazier out, although Tyreke Evans is expected to make his season debut. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Evans sees in his first game back. If you absolutely need a shooting guard punt, you could certainly do worse than Buddy Hield, who is averaging 16.1 fantasy points in his last three games. Anthony Davis is the top overall play in the slate and it’s not really close. The Pacers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA and Davis has scored at least 57 fantasy points in six of his last ten games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,100 $6,700 $10,600 1.00 29.6 5.2 29.6 4.8 28.8% -0.9% 19 0.23
Buddy Hield $3,600 $3,200 $7,200 0.71 17.7 4.7 12.6 3.5 22.0% -2.8% 23 -1.39
Solomon Hill $3,700 $3,400 $7,700 0.56 27.5 -1.6 15.5 2.3 11.5% 3.7% 18 -0.63
Anthony Davis $12,000 $11,500 $16,200 1.41 38.3 1.9 53.9 -10.1 31.1% -6.0% 21 0.74
Alexis Ajinca $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.75 13.3 1.3 10.0 1.2 15.6% 2.4% 14 1.66
Tim Frazier $5,600 $5,900 $8,100 0.87 31.0 3.4 26.9 11.9 22.4% 1.0% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis

Secondary Plays – Langston Galloway (GPP), Buddy Hield, Terrence Jones (GPP)

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Milwaukee Bucks
chicagonba Vegas Total 208.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 105.0
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 16 28 22 22 DvP 6 12 13 22 21
DRPM 3.24 -0.18 -0.68 -1.46 1.14 DRPM -0.35 0.40 1.31 2.00 0.80

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games, but are still two games above .500 overall. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on a Bucks’ defense that is ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 18th in rebounding differential. Neither of these teams are particularly fast paced, but the over/under for the game is still set at 208 points. The Bulls have an implied total of 103 points, which is higher than their season average, but the second lowest team total in the slate.

Rajon Rondo missed Tuesday night’s game with an ankle injury and is listed as a game-time decision tonight. If he is unable to suit up, Jerian Grant would draw another start in his place, although he hasn’t done a whole lot in his few spot starts this season. The real boost goes to Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler, who both see a 7% increase in their usage when Rondo is not on the floor. Considering the fact that the Bucks are ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to both shooting guards and small forwards, Wade and Butler would both become elite plays if Rondo is ruled out. If Rondo is active, I’d bump Wade down to a secondary play. Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez are both fine cash game targets at power forward and center. Both players have a high floor and a relatively low ceiling at their respective price points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,000 $5,800 $9,500 0.88 31.3 3.1 27.5 1.2 21.6% -1.3% 7 3.24
Dwyane Wade $7,300 $7,000 $10,600 1.02 31.6 2.3 32.3 3.4 29.8% 0.7% 16 -0.18
Jimmy Butler $9,000 $9,000 $13,100 1.16 36.5 2.0 42.4 3.3 29.3% -0.5% 28 -0.68
Taj Gibson $5,300 $4,700 $8,900 0.87 28.7 -1.4 24.9 -5.3 18.7% 1.0% 22 -1.46
Robin Lopez $5,100 $4,600 $8,600 0.83 28.6 1.8 23.7 -1.0 16.3% -4.0% 22 1.14
Nikola Mirotic $4,100 $3,600 $7,900 0.84 22.4 -1.0 18.8 -2.6 18.5% -2.0% 22 N/A
Doug McDermott $3,500 $3,100 $6,900 0.62 24.3 1.9 15.1 -3.1 16.7% -0.8% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Jerian Grant, Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have lost three games in a row and have fallen below .500 overall (11-12). They will try to right the ship tonight against the Bulls in what is expected to be a close, high scoring game. The Bulls are not an ideal matchup on paper though, as they are ranked fifth in points allowed per game, ninth in defensive efficiency, and second in rebounding differential. The Bucks implied total of 105 points seems a bit high to me, but I do not set lines for a living, so I will trust Vegas on this one.

This is pure speculation, but it would make sense for the Bulls to put their best on-ball defender (Jimmy Butler) on Giannis Antetokounmpo. On the season, Butler has a DRPM of 1.31, which is well above the league average. This does hurt Antetokounmpo’s appeal in terms of scoring, but he brings so much more to the table with his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Even in a difficult matchup, he grades out as the second best play overall, right behind Anthony Davis. Matthew Dellavedova has been a decent punt this season, but he has a low ceiling and is best suited for cash games. Jabari Parker has played well in the last two weeks, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. I generally don’t fade players based on their individual matchup, but Taj Gibson does have the eighth best DRPM among power forwards this season. For that reason, I’ll bump Parker down to a secondary play. I typically wouldn’t be interested in John Henson or Greg Monroe, but center is super thin in this five game slate. I prefer to go up to Myles Turner, but don’t mind Henson or Monroe in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $9,900 $9,500 $14,200 1.34 34.5 0.2 46.3 -6.7 30.1% 1.7% 6 -0.35
Matthew Dellavedova $4,100 $3,700 $7,500 0.69 28.4 0.2 19.7 -3.1 19.9% 0.9% 12 0.40
Tony Snell $3,600 $3,200 $7,600 0.51 29.5 1.5 15.1 0.2 12.9% -4.0% 13 1.31
Jabari Parker $6,300 $6,300 $10,300 0.94 32.6 -0.2 30.6 -2.2 25.5% 1.3% 22 2.00
John Henson $4,600 $4,200 $7,700 0.93 20.0 1.6 18.7 1.2 16.5% 0.5% 21 0.80
Greg Monroe $4,800 $4,400 $7,700 1.19 19.0 1.3 22.6 -0.6 22.8% 0.6% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker, Matthew Dellavedova, John Henson, Greg Monroe

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Phoenix Suns
sanantonionba Vegas Total 210.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Team Total 108.8 Team Total 101.3
Pace +/- 4.9 Pace +/- -3.0
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 22 26 20 16 DvP 5 17 1 4 4
DRPM -0.44 -2.30 0.58 -0.19 1.99 DRPM -1.13 0.81 0.56 0.21 1.59

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are playing their second game in as many nights, so don’t be surprised if they decide to rest Tony Parker or Pau Gasol. They already gave LaMarcus Aldridge the night off on the front end of the back-to-back. Even though the Spurs can be a tough team to predict on a nightly basis, they have the best matchup in the entire slate. On the season, the Suns are ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Spurs have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 5.3 points above their season average.

If Tony Parker is active, neither he nor Patty Mills would be all that interesting in daily fantasy. However, if the Spurs decide to rest Parker in the second half of a back-to-back, Mills would become an elite play in all formats. Danny Green has not played well recently, but draws a get-right matchup against the Suns. He is worth a look in tournaments as a sub-5% owned player. Kawhi Leonard is my favorite small forward in the slate and it’s really not close. Even though he played 37 minutes last night, his minutes have not gone down in back-to-back situations this season. I will note that P.J. Tucker is a scrappy defender, but that’s not enough of a reason to fade Leonard. LaMarcus Aldridge should be well rested for tonight’s matchup against the likes of Marquese Chriss and Jared Dudley. To quote the most interesting man in the world, “I don’t play Aldridge often, but when I do, it’s against the Suns.” Pau Gasol makes sense as a tournament play against a Suns’ team that usually has a traditional center on the floor at all times.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,200 $4,000 $7,800 0.71 25.3 -3.3 18.1 1.6 23.0% 3.6% 24 -0.44
Danny Green $3,500 $3,600 $7,600 0.63 25.3 -2.5 16.0 -1.6 12.8% 0.1% 22 -2.30
Kawhi Leonard $8,300 $8,300 $13,700 1.18 33.7 -0.1 39.7 2.7 29.7% -1.3% 26 0.58
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,300 $6,100 $10,600 0.91 32.4 -4.6 29.5 -7.3 23.1% -2.2% 20 -0.19
Pau Gasol $6,000 $5,200 $10,300 0.99 26.2 0.8 26.1 -0.2 21.3% 1.9% 16 1.99
Patty Mills $4,400 $4,500 $7,500 0.84 23.4 -1.1 19.7 6.6 22.1% 7.3% 24 N/A
Manu Ginobili $3,700 $3,600 $7,000 0.81 19.5 -1.5 15.9 -6.3 21.9% -1.7% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills, Danny Green (GPP), Pau Gasol (GPP)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they love to push the pace and are typically involved in a lot of shootouts. Unfortunately, they draw a matchup against the Spurs, who are one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. San Antonio is ranked third in points allowed per game and fifth in defensive efficiency this season. The Suns come into the game as 7.5-point underdogs and they have the lowest implied total in the slate at 101.3 points.

T.J. Warren, Brandon Knight, and Alex Len are all questionable for tonight’s game, so hopefully we get an update on their availability before lineups lock. Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, and Leandro Barbosa would see a boost if Warren and Knight were both ruled out, although they would only be secondary plays against this tough Spurs’ defense. The only play that really stands out here is Tyson Chandler. He has 44 rebounds in his last two games combined. If Len is unable to suit up, Chandler could push for 35 minutes once again.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,300 $7,800 $11,200 1.11 32.5 4.6 36.0 15.3 29.3% 5.5% 5 -1.13
Devin Booker $5,600 $5,200 $9,400 0.77 33.0 1.0 25.5 -4.2 26.2% -1.8% 17 0.81
P.J. Tucker $4,500 $4,400 $8,000 0.64 25.7 10.3 16.4 8.3 11.9% 0.5% 1 0.56
Marquese Chriss $3,800 $3,500 $6,800 0.74 16.3 2.6 12.1 5.1 19.2% 0.2% 4 0.21
Tyson Chandler $5,600 $5,400 $9,000 0.86 28.0 5.3 24.1 9.3 10.4% 0.7% 4 1.59
Alex Len $4,800 $4,000 $7,900 0.96 23.2 1.5 22.4 5.6 16.6% 0.1% 4 N/A
Brandon Knight $4,400 $3,900 $7,800 0.81 24.3 -4.7 19.7 -0.3 27.2% 0.3% 17 N/A
Leandro Barbosa $3,700 $3,500 $6,000 0.77 14.4 12.3 11.1 9.7 19.0% 1.1% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Tyson Chandler, Eric Bledsoe, Leandro Barbosa

Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Denver Nuggets
portlandnba Vegas Total 221.0 denvernba Vegas Total 221.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 110.0 Team Total 111.0
Pace +/- 1.9 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Ed Davis Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Darrell Arthur Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 28 30 8 15 6 DvP 9 24 21 30 26
DRPM -1.64 -0.21 -0.32 -0.27 1.80 DRPM -2.08 -2.07 -0.58 0.05 -0.06

Portland Trail Blazers

This game will likely end up being the best game to target for fantasy production in this five game slate. The Blazers and Nuggets are both ranked in the top eight in pace of play and they are both ranked in the bottom five in points allowed per game. Fast-paced, high-scoring games are exactly what we are looking for in DFS, especially ones that are expected to stay close throughout. The Blazers have an implied total of 110 points, which is the third highest in the slate and slightly above their season average.

My plan tonight is to get as much exposure to Damian Lillard as possible. The Nuggets are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to point guards and both Emmanuel Mudiay and Jameer Nelson have negative DRPM’s on the season. I also love the fact that the Nuggets don’t have an elite rim protector, so Lillard will be able to choose whether he wants to light them up from the three-point line or carve up his opponents on the way to the basket. C.J. McCollum is in an equally great spot tonight, as the Nuggets are the worst team in the NBA at defending shooting guards. You can pair Lillard and McCollum together since the Blazers’ offense is so concentrated around those two players. Maurice Harkless and Evan Turner are both in play at small forward. I prefer taking the Harkless route in cash games, while Turner has a little more appeal in tournaments. The one position that the Nuggets have defended well this season is center. While Mason Plumlee has played well this season, I would much rather target Myles Turner at a similar price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,500 $8,800 $12,800 1.16 35.6 -0.9 41.2 0.1 32.4% -0.9% 28 -1.64
C.J. McCollum $7,400 $6,900 $11,000 0.96 34.4 -1.0 33.2 2.0 26.7% 1.4% 30 -0.21
Maurice Harkless $4,900 $4,900 $7,800 0.73 30.9 -1.6 22.6 -4.6 16.3% -2.9% 8 -0.32
Ed Davis $3,600 $3,300 $7,400 0.69 18.9 0.8 13.1 4.4 11.4% 1.4% 15 -0.27
Mason Plumlee $6,200 $5,600 $9,700 1.00 27.9 1.6 28.0 3.9 19.6% 2.5% 6 1.80
Evan Turner $4,700 $4,600 $8,100 0.78 25.2 0.8 19.6 2.5 19.2% -0.8% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – Maurice Harkless (Cash), Evan Turner (GPP), Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis

Denver Nuggets

It felt like the night before Christmas yesterday when I was scrolling through the “Player News” page on Rotoworld. I decided to write a little poem about it.

When what to my wondering eyes did appear,
was a quote from Mike Malone, promising cheer.
With Jokic playing so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment he must be the pick.
When out on the court there arose such a clatter,
Even if he’s off the bench, it still doesn’t matter.
More minutes, more minutes for that Nikola chap,
Noto’s never been happier in his backwards cap.

In other words, it sounds like Mike Malone is considering a lineup change tonight and it sounds like he wants to get more minutes for Nikola Jokic. This is a terrific matchup for Denver as a whole, as the Blazers are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Nuggets have an implied total of 111 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 5.4 points above their season average. Emmanuel Mudiay has regressed in his second season and with a lack of minutes, he is an easy fade in DFS despite a favorable matchup. Gary Harris is expected to return tonight, which should result in fewer minutes for Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler. All three are still secondary plays given the matchup. Jokic is the man of the hour, as he is averaging over 35 fantasy points in his last three games. If he sees 28-30 minutes, he should dominate a Blazers’ frontcourt that is ranked 30th against power forwards this season.

The Nuggets

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,900 $5,000 $9,100 0.76 29.9 -3.3 22.6 -5.1 25.8% -4.7% 9 -2.08
Will Barton $5,200 $5,900 $8,700 0.75 31.6 1.7 23.8 -5.2 21.8% -4.1% 24 -2.07
Danilo Gallinari $5,700 $5,300 $10,900 0.72 34.8 -3.9 25.0 -1.8 19.3% 1.8% 21 -0.58
Darrell Arthur $3,500 $3,000 $6,600 0.64 14.5 1.2 9.4 0.6 16.8% -3.8% 30 0.05
Jusuf Nurkic $4,400 $3,800 $9,200 1.01 21.3 -1.4 21.5 -2.8 23.0% 1.9% 26 -0.06
Wilson Chandler $5,900 $5,700 $10,400 0.93 30.8 -3.2 28.8 -17.6 24.1% -7.5% 21 N/A
Nikola Jokic $6,000 $6,500 $8,600 1.06 23.8 3.0 25.3 11.9 20.0% 5.0% 30 N/A
Jameer Nelson $4,400 $4,100 $7,600 0.72 26.5 0.0 19.1 -3.6 20.6% 1.7% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic

Secondary Plays – Will Barton, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari

New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

New York Knicks Golden State Warriors
newyorknba Vegas Total 224.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 224.0
Vegas Spread 14.0 Vegas Spread -14.0
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 119.0
Pace +/- 3.7 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Kevon Looney Draymond Green
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 15 17 11 22 10 DvP 10 27 17 7 28
DRPM -0.99 -2.85 2.31 0.71 3.79 DRPM -2.08 0.09 -0.84 0.50 1.92

New York Knicks

The Knicks have won six of their last ten games, but draw an extremely tough matchup against the Warriors on the road. This game could potentially have a lot of fantasy goodness, but it could also turn into a blowout. It’s the ultimate risk/reward game in his small slate. The Warriors are ranked tenth in defensive efficiency, but their quick pace has hurt their ranking in points allowed per game (19th). The Knicks have an implied total of 105 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and identical to their season average. The situation to monitor here is the status of Derrick Rose, who left Tuesday night’s game with a back injury.

It will be interesting to see if their is an update on Derrick Rose before lineups lock. If he is still questionable at the time of the first tip, it would offer us a chance to target Brandon Jennings against the Warriors at less than 10%. It’s a risk that I would certainly be able to take, as we know the Knicks want to play it safe with Rose if his back is still hurting. If Rose is ruled out before then, Jennings becomes close to a must play in cash games. Carmelo Anthony struggled against the Suns the other night, but should be able to bounce back nicely in an uptempo game against the Warriors. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 46.3 fantasy points in his last three games and while Draymond Green is an excellent defender, the Warriors have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to power forwards. The only concern with Anthony and Porzingis is that they may only play three quarters if the game gets out of hand.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,300 $6,200 $9,500 0.89 31.0 -9.1 27.6 -10.2 27.5% -1.6% 15 -0.99
Courtney Lee $4,100 $4,100 $7,100 0.60 30.1 2.2 18.0 0.9 14.3% -3.3% 17 -2.85
Carmelo Anthony $7,700 $7,400 $12,400 1.01 34.2 3.4 34.6 2.8 28.4% -0.7% 11 2.31
Kristaps Porzingis $8,300 $8,000 $12,000 1.03 34.5 4.3 35.5 11.8 23.8% 1.5% 22 0.71
Joakim Noah $4,400 $3,800 $8,000 0.91 22.0 1.3 20.1 -1.0 13.6% 1.5% 10 3.79
Brandon Jennings $4,800 $4,600 $8,700 0.82 23.1 6.9 18.8 2.4 23.2% 0.2% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Brandon Jennings (Elite GPP if we don’t know about Rose & Elite in all formats if Rose is ruled out)

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors have won eight of their last ten games and are 22-4 overall. They should be able to pick up another win tonight against the Knicks at home. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Knicks are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency this season. The Warriors come into tonight’s game as 14-point favorites with an implied total of 119 points. They have the highest team total in the slate. The only concern here is a potential blowout, but I typically don’t discount the favored team in these situations.

Stephen Curry has been more inconsistent this season, but that’s a byproduct of the fact that the Warriors have four superstars in their lineup. Whether he matches up against Derrick Rose or Brandon Jennings, I like his chances to have a big game. His price is affordable across the industry and he has a true usage rate of 30.2% on the season. Klay Thompson is always on my radar in tournaments, although I generally look elsewhere for cash games. We know his ceiling is as high as anyone’s but his floor is lower than a few other players at his position in this slate. Kevin Durant is in the midst of a slump, averaging only 36 fantasy points in his last three games. I love his price across the industry, but slightly prefer Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler when you factor in salaries. With Zaza Pachulia out, Draymond Green minutes are solidified in the mid-30s. He is my favorite play from the Warriors and I will be using him in all formats. Javale McGee drew the start at center the other night, but only played 16 minutes. It’s hard to project him for more than minutes in the upper teens tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,100 $8,600 $13,900 1.21 33.3 -1.2 40.3 -2.1 30.2% -1.0% 10 -2.08
Klay Thompson $6,500 $6,400 $10,500 0.85 34.0 1.7 29.0 -2.8 24.6% -2.4% 27 0.09
Kevin Durant $9,700 $9,200 $15,100 1.34 34.5 0.6 46.3 -10.3 27.7% 0.6% 17 -0.84
Kevon Looney $3,500 $3,000 $6,000 0.93 8.3 2.6 7.7 -3.8 12.8% -3.4% 7 0.50
Draymond Green $8,100 $7,900 $12,700 1.13 33.0 -0.8 37.4 -3.4 19.4% 1.2% 28 1.92
Andre Iguodala $3,900 $3,500 $7,500 0.68 25.0 4.8 17.1 4.2 12.4% 0.2% 17 N/A
Javale McGee $3,500 $3,400 $6,000 1.14 7.7 2.6 8.8 1.4 24.2% -2.9% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kevin Durant (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant (FD), Klay Thompson

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious