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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-13 05:52:04

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Indiana Pacers at Denver Nuggets – 3:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Denver Nuggets
indiananba Vegas Total 225.0 denvernba Vegas Total 225.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 114.8 Team Total 110.3
Pace +/- 2.0 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Darrell Arthur Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 30 6 15 16 DvP 20 20 16 21 17
DRPM -2.65 -0.29 -0.77 -0.27 1.33 DRPM -0.06 -0.76 -0.15 1.42 1.99

Indiana Pacers

The NBA has two games outside of the United States today with the first being played in London. The Pacers have won five games in a row. Their winning streak has catapulted them up the Eastern Conference standings, as they are now in fifth place. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who represent one of the best matchups in all of fantasy basketball. On the season, Denver is ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 30th in defensive efficiency. The Pacers have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the second highest on the board and 9.0 points higher than their season average.

Even since Monta Ellis returned from his injury, it hasn’t slowed Jeff Teague one bit. He is averaging 39 fantasy points over his last three games and he quietly has an elite true usage rate of 26.7%. We know the Nuggets struggle to contain opposing point guards, the only question is whether or not Teague is worth his hefty price tag. If you are playing in the all-day or the early-only slate, you may want to get some exposure to Teague. Glenn Robinson and C.J. Miles are too inconsistent for my liking. While the Nuggets struggle against shooting guards, they are easy fades now that Ellis is back in the mix. Paul George should see around 35 minutes against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. He offers both a high floor and a high ceiling and is an elite play in all formats. Thaddeus Young is averaging 33.2 minutes over his last eight games and while the Nuggets have been tough on opposing frontcourts, Young offers a high floor for cash games. Myles Turner is typically one of my favorite targets at his position, but he’s my second center in this game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $8,100 $8,200 1.06 32.0 -0.3 34.0 5.0 26.7% -1.2% 29 -2.65
Glenn Robinson $3,600 $3,600 0.58 22.7 4.1 13.1 3.4 12.4% -1.6% 30 -0.29
Paul George $7,800 $8,100 1.01 35.5 -3.9 36.0 1.6 27.1% 2.8% 6 -0.77
Thaddeus Young $5,400 $5,900 0.76 31.4 -0.2 23.9 3.3 16.1% -1.1% 15 -0.27
Myles Turner $7,000 $7,700 1.04 29.9 3.2 31.2 7.0 19.5% -0.4% 16 1.33
Monta Ellis $3,600 $3,800 0.64 28.7 -8.1 18.5 -6.2 17.6% 0.9% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Paul George, Thaddeus Young (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (Cash), Thaddeus Young (DK), Myles Turner

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets come into this game a bit banged up with four of their players listed as probable and two of their players listed as questionable. We should get an update on the two questionable players before lineups lock, as this is the first game of the day. Regardless of which players are active, this is a great spot for fantasy production. Both of these teams are ranked inside the top eight in pace of play and the Pacers have allowed 106.2 points per game, which is the eighth worst mark in the NBA. The Nuggets have an implied total of 110.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and 2.3 points above their season average.

There was a stretch a couple of weeks ago when it looked like the Nuggets were going to start giving Emmanuel Mudiay some extra run, but that seems to have come to a halt. For now, we can avoid both Mudiay and Jameer Nelson, as they continue to split minutes at point guard. Gary Harris is expected to play today and makes for a nice value play in cash games. Will Barton should see big minutes off the bench and is always worth a look in tournaments. Danilo Gallinari is also expected to play here and would see a significant boost if Wilson Chandler is unable to suit up. Nikola Jokic missed Saturday night’s game with an illness, but is expected to play tonight. He is averaging close to 38 fantasy points in his last three games and he gets to face a Pacers’ team that is ranked 27th in rebounding differential.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,400 $4,400 0.76 29.0 -1.8 22.1 -9.2 24.4% -5.5% 20 -0.06
Will Barton $4,800 $5,100 0.84 28.8 -9.1 24.1 -5.5 21.6% 1.6% 20 -0.76
Danilo Gallinari $6,000 $6,200 0.79 34.1 -2.2 26.9 -0.4 19.5% 2.3% 16 -0.15
Darrell Arthur $3,600 $3,000 0.67 14.8 5.8 9.9 7.7 16.6% 1.1% 21 1.42
Nikola Jokic $7,700 $7,800 1.18 24.6 3.3 29.1 8.7 22.1% 1.2% 17 1.99
Jusuf Nurkic $4,200 $4,000 1.04 19.9 1.8 20.7 3.7 22.8% 0.2% 17 N/A
Wilson Chandler $5,600 $6,300 0.89 31.2 -2.3 27.9 -1.4 23.1% -1.4% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic

Secondary Plays – Gary Harris, Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, Jusuf Nurkic

New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Brooklyn Nets
neworleansnba Vegas Total 216.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 110.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 5.5 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 30 28 30 27 30 DvP 28 12 19 27 19
DRPM -0.50 -2.80 -1.08 2.27 -0.39 DRPM 0.93 -2.59 0.68 1.46 2.98

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have a big question mark leading into their game against the Nets. I’ll give you one hint. He has half as many eyebrows as your average human being. You’re stumped, aren’t you? How about this one? He has about as many injuries over the last two years as the rest of his teammates combined. All jokes aside, we need to keep an eye on the status of Anthony Davis throughout the day. He hurt his hip and appears to be a true gam-time decision. In terms of matchups, we can’t find a better one than the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Pelicans’ implied total is 8.3 points above their season average.

Jrue Holiday draws an elite matchup against a Nets’ defense that is ranked dead last against point guards this season. In fact, all five of the Pelicans’ starters have elite matchups, as Brooklyn is ranked 28th or worse against all five positions on the floor. If Anthony Davis is ruled out, Holiday becomes close to a must play at point guard. Tyreke Evans is still on a minutes restriction, but he offers good value on DraftKings at $4,200. He would also help should some of the load if Davis sits. Buddy Hield has scored at least 26 fantasy points in three of his last four games and is the preferred target over Langston Galloway and E’Twuan Moore. Terrence Jones could slide into the starting lineup if Davis is unable to play tonight. He would immediately become one of the best value plays on the board. Domantas Motiejunas has played well in his first two games with New Orleans, but it’s unlikely that he will play more than 20 minutes unless Davis is out. And finally, if Davis plays and we feel confident that he can make it all the way through the game, he stands out as one of the best plays in the slate. The Nets are ranked 26th in rebounding differential and allow the most blocked shots of any team in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $6,800 $7,000 0.98 30.9 -0.9 30.2 -5.3 26.6% -1.6% 30 -0.50
Buddy Hield $4,200 $4,700 0.73 20.3 7.2 14.9 9.6 21.0% -4.2% 28 -2.80
Solomon Hill $3,500 $3,000 0.52 27.1 -6.6 14.1 -4.5 10.9% 0.8% 30 -1.08
Dante Cunningham $3,500 $3,300 0.54 25.1 2.2 13.6 -1.8 10.6% -2.1% 27 2.27
Anthony Davis $11,800 $11,800 1.41 37.1 -2.4 52.3 6.7 31.2% 1.8% 30 -0.39
Tyreke Evans $4,900 $4,200 1.02 15.8 2.1 16.2 -0.1 29.0% -3.0% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis (if active), Terrence Jones (if Davis is out), Buddy Hield (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans, Domantas Motiejunas, Buddy Hield (DK)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are well on their way to securing the most ping pong balls in the lottery. They have only eight wins on the season, which is three fewer than the next worst team. While we don’t care about records, we do care about a team’s ability to keep a game close. I like the Nets’ chances tonight, as they have been much more competitive at home than they have been on the road. The line would also move quite a bit if Anthony Davis is unable to suit up for New Orleans. This is an exploitable matchup for the Nets, as the Pelicans are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential.

Jeremy Lin is still not ready to make his return to the court, which means Isaiah Whitehead and Spencer Dinwiddie will continue to split the minutes at point guard. Dinwiddie has flashed some upside, but until either player starts seeing close to 30 minutes, they can both be avoided in DFS. Bojan Bogdanovic has been in the best form of the starters, averaging 28.2 fantasy points in his last three games. He is the only Nets’ wing player on my radar tonight, as Sean Kilpatrick, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Joe Harris have all struggled with consistency. Trevor Booker is very productive on a per-minute basis, but he rarely sees 30 minutes of playing time and he will match up against Anthony Davis (if he’s able to suit up). Brook Lopez remains a strong play on DraftKings at $6,400. He’s not a great rebounder, but the Pelicans are ranked 29th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,500 $3,300 0.65 22.7 3.0 14.7 2.6 19.1% 1.4% 28 0.93
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 $4,900 0.74 26.8 4.0 19.9 8.3 20.7% 0.1% 12 -2.59
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,000 0.63 23.1 -7.0 14.4 -7.4 16.4% -0.8% 19 0.68
Trevor Booker $5,400 $5,400 0.97 27.3 -2.2 26.5 -2.7 17.1% -3.0% 27 1.46
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,400 1.10 29.2 3.1 32.1 -5.8 27.6% -3.7% 19 2.98
Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 $3,500 0.70 16.3 5.4 11.3 6.6 18.1% -2.5% 28 N/A
Sean Kilpatrick $4,100 $4,500 0.85 27.3 -4.2 23.2 -9.3 24.6% 0.4% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez, Sean Kilpatrick (FD)

Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks – 8:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls New York Knicks
chicagonba Vegas Total 204.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 100.5 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Dwyane Wade Doug McDermott Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 11 28 12 18 28 DvP 15 21 14 14 12
DRPM -2.22 -0.59 -1.46 1.71 1.62 DRPM -0.25 -0.06 -1.47 1.40 -0.12

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls were missing three of their best players on Tuesday night and they still came close to beating the Wizards in Washington. Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers in Chicago right now. In an interview with Rajon Rondo, he said that the Bulls told him that they were saving him from himself and that he had no idea what that meant. Clearly, the Rondo the Bulls are on two different pages, but he did see the floor on Tuesday. The Bulls’ matchup against the Knicks is a good one, as New York is ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 26th in rebounding differential this season. The Bulls have the second lowest implied total in the slate, but two injuries really open the door for fantasy production.

Jimmy Butler and Nikola Mirotic have already been ruled out of tonight’s game. If we run the CourtIQ tool, we can see that Dwayne Wade has a ridiculous 45% usage rate with those two off the floor. The sample size is a bit smaller than we’d like it to be (44 minutes), but Wade is obviously going to see a massive usage boost tonight. He is an elite play in all formats against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 28th against shooting guards. It’s hard to rely on Tuesday’s game for how the point guard minutes will be distributed between Michael Carter-Williams, Jerian Grant, and Rajon Rondo because Wade was active in that game. I will note that Fred Hoiberg said that Rondo should be able to receive regular minutes in future games. Of the three, I’m most intrigued by Rondo, who clearly has the most upside. I’m officially giving up on Doug McDermott after he 5.7 fantasy points in a perfect spot on Tuesday. With that said, he could draw another start and he’s only $3,800 on FanDuel. Who am I kidding? I’m sure I will have some exposure. Taj Gibson should benefit from Nikola Mirotic being out and his price is affordable across the industry. I see him as a viable cash game option, with Bobby Portis serving as a GPP flier.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,800 $4,900 0.77 21.0 2.2 16.3 3.4 23.3% 2.3% 11 -2.22
Dwyane Wade $6,900 $6,800 1.03 30.4 2.8 31.3 4.7 30.4% -0.1% 28 -0.59
Doug McDermott $3,800 $4,500 0.59 26.7 2.2 15.8 -0.7 16.2% 3.2% 12 -1.46
Taj Gibson $5,000 $5,200 0.86 27.6 -4.6 23.7 -1.2 19.1% -0.2% 18 1.71
Robin Lopez $4,100 $4,000 0.76 27.9 0.9 21.2 -5.7 15.8% -1.4% 28 1.62
Rajon Rondo $4,400 $5,000 0.86 30.2 -2.9 25.9 4.0 21.6% 7.4% 11 N/A
Jerian Grant $3,500 $3,800 0.69 14.5 8.3 10.0 5.2 17.4% -0.8% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Taj Gibson, Rajon Rondo (FD GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Carter-Williams, Doug McDermott (FD), Rajon Rondo (DK GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP), Robin Lopez

New York Knicks

The Knicks continue to find new ways to lose games. Their latest installment featured a game-winning fadeaway from T.J. McConnell. New York has lost nine of their last ten games and would be out of the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bulls, but luckily Chicago will be without their best player in Jimmy Butler. The Knicks implied total is lower than their season average, but it is right around the average of the 12 teams in action tonight.

After going AWOL on Monday night, Derrick Rose returned to the starting lineup last night and put up 33 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. Clearly, the issue is behind him and we should expect him to see minutes in the low 30s again tonight. Rose is still more of a GPP play, but he is currently priced at a slight discount across the industry and this is a revenge game against his former team. Carmelo Anthony logged 37 minutes last night, but is my favorite play on the Knicks. He sees a huge matchup boost with Jimmy Butler out, as he now gets to square off against the likes of Doug McDermott and Denzel Valentine. Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t looked great since returning from injury and I’d like to see a good game or two out of him before going back to the well. His matchup isn’t great anyway, as Taj Gibson is a capable low post defender. Joakim Noah continues to be productive on a per-minute basis, but he hasn’t played more than 21 minutes since Porzingis came back from his injury. I would love to target Noah in a revenge spot, but given the lack of minute upside, he is a GPP flier at best.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,100 $6,100 0.89 31.9 -3.1 28.5 -4.4 28.0% -2.1% 15 -0.25
Courtney Lee $4,200 $3,800 0.57 31.0 -1.0 17.7 -1.7 13.9% -0.7% 21 -0.06
Carmelo Anthony $8,000 $7,300 1.04 33.3 -2.6 34.7 -1.2 29.0% -1.0% 14 -1.47
Kristaps Porzingis $7,900 $7,200 1.00 34.3 -5.0 34.5 -6.7 23.5% 0.4% 14 1.40
Joakim Noah $4,800 $4,600 0.94 22.7 -2.9 21.4 -4.8 14.4% 2.1% 12 -0.12
Brandon Jennings $5,600 $4,800 0.83 23.6 -4.5 19.5 0.3 23.3% 7.8% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (GPP), Joakim Noah (GPP)

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers San Antonio Spurs
lalakersnba Vegas Total 211.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 14.5 Vegas Spread -14.5
Team Total 98.3 Team Total 112.8
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- 1.9
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 4 23 1 1 1 DvP 25 26 27 29 27
DRPM -0.99 1.10 1.00 1.19 1.98 DRPM -0.63 -1.88 0.80 0.31 -0.19

Los Angeles Lakers

The analysis for this game is going to be short and sweet. The Lakers are listed as 14.5-point underdogs tonight against the Spurs in a game that has blowout written all over it. In fact, if you pull up the NBA schedule and zoom in really close, you can see the word blowout. Do you remember those optical illusion books where you had to go cross-eyed to make the picture appear? Those haunt me to this day, as I’ve never been able to figure them out. What I can figure out is that I want little to no exposure to the Lakers tonight. The Spurs are one of the top two defensive teams in the NBA and the Lakers implied total of 98 points is 7.3 points below their season average. If the Lakers show up and keep this game close and I end up getting burned by it, so be it. There is more downside than upside in targeting the Lakers tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $6,400 $6,200 1.01 27.3 1.6 27.5 11.3 29.7% -2.7% 4 -0.99
Nick Young $4,000 $3,700 0.74 26.5 -1.0 19.6 -9.8 18.7% -2.7% 23 1.10
Luol Deng $4,500 $4,000 0.71 27.5 2.8 19.6 5.0 15.0% 3.0% 1 1.00
Julius Randle $6,600 $6,600 1.02 29.5 -1.1 30.0 0.3 23.7% -1.4% 1 1.19
Timofey Mozgov $3,600 $3,100 0.73 21.6 0.6 15.7 -0.3 16.5% -1.3% 1 1.98
Lou Williams $4,600 $3,900 1.06 24.4 -5.3 25.9 -8.9 30.6% 6.6% 23 N/A
Jordan Clarkson $4,000 $3,900 0.77 27.4 -7.1 21.1 -7.2 23.6% -5.8% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have won seven of their last ten games and are two and a half behind the Warriors for the best record in the NBA. They should be able to add one to their win column tonight, as they take on the struggling Lakers, who have fallen apart after the first month of the season. This a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Lakers are ranked 26th in points allowed per game and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs come into the game with an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 6.8 points above their season average. The difficult part here is that we know Greg Popovich will pull his starters early if the game gets out of hand.

The fantasy appeal of the Spurs tonight hinges solely on the availability of LaMarcus Aldridge. He missed Tuesday night’s game with an illness and there hasn’t been an update on his status at the time of writing the Grind Down. If he is ruled out, it gives a huge fantasy boost to both Kawhi Leonard and Pau Gasol. If we run the CourtIQ with Aldridge off the floor, we see that Leonard gets a 3.7% usage boost and a 0.28 FP/min boost. Gasol gets a 4.1% usage boost and a 0.04 FP/min boost. Both players would become borderline elite plays if Aldridge is out. Gasol also has a little added motivation, as he is facing his former team. David Lee would also see a nice chunk of playing time if Aldridge is out. Lee would make a nice value play for both cash games and tournaments. If Aldridge is active tonight, this becomes a situation that may carry more risk than potential reward. The likelihood of a blowout would go up and both Leonard and Gasol would return to their normal roles in the offense.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,800 $4,700 0.78 25.5 1.4 20.0 4.9 24.3% -0.8% 25 -0.63
Danny Green $3,700 $3,700 0.63 25.8 -1.9 16.3 2.7 12.9% 4.8% 26 -1.88
Kawhi Leonard $8,700 $8,600 1.17 33.2 1.8 38.8 0.5 29.1% -1.8% 27 0.80
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,600 $7,100 0.98 32.4 1.0 31.6 4.4 23.5% -1.3% 29 0.31
Pau Gasol $6,400 $6,000 1.05 26.6 1.1 27.9 -0.1 20.8% -4.6% 27 -0.19
Patty Mills $3,500 $3,200 0.82 22.2 -4.6 18.2 -4.5 22.1% 3.8% 25 N/A
David Lee $3,600 $4,100 0.91 17.0 -1.2 15.6 -1.4 17.4% -2.0% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard and David Lee (if Aldridge is out)

Secondary Plays – Pau Gasol and Tony Parker (if Aldridge is out)

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Phoenix Suns
dallasnba Vegas Total 206.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 102.3
Pace +/- 3.9 Pace +/- -5.3
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 23 24 19 22 22 DvP 1 11 4 10 15
DRPM -0.39 -1.99 -0.75 -0.54 1.95 DRPM -1.42 0.01 0.20 -0.69 0.21

Dallas Mavericks

There aren’t many players left from the early days of DFS when the infamous fire broke out in Mexico City. The NBA game had to be cancelled due to all of the smoke and it left DFS players with nothing but zeroes in their lineups. Tonight’s Mavericks/Suns game will be played in Mexico City and while I don’t expect any fires to break out, I’ve lived to tell the tale. It sounds like altitude could be an issue as well, but these are professional athletes that we are talking about, so I probably won’t put any stock into it. The Mavericks draw a great matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency this season. Dallas has an implied total that is 8.7 points above their season average.

Deron Williams hasn’t been particularly productive of late, but he should see around 30 minutes against one of the worst defensive backcourts in the NBA. The Suns are currently ranked 23rd against point guards and 24th against shooting guards. Wesley Matthew has been in a slump, but draws a great matchup to shoot himself out of it. He is only $4,700 on DraftKings and he should see minutes in the mid-30s. Harrison Barnes continues to be under-owned in DFS, despite averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. He will likely see a lot of P.J. Tucker though, who is arguably the Suns’ best defender. Dirk Nowitzki has played at least 28 minutes in three straight games and is coming off of a nice outing against the Wolves, finishing with 26 points, five rebounds, and four assists. His price seems expensive, but I like him as an elite play in this matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $5,900 $5,600 0.85 30.3 1.3 25.7 -1.9 27.5% -1.1% 23 -0.39
Wesley Matthews $5,300 $4,700 0.66 35.7 -0.6 23.5 -8.5 20.8% -3.8% 24 -1.99
Harrison Barnes $6,900 $6,700 0.84 35.9 -1.6 30.3 1.6 25.4% -1.5% 19 -0.75
Dirk Nowitzki $5,500 $5,800 0.93 24.1 5.6 22.4 6.3 26.6% -2.3% 22 -0.54
Andrew Bogut $3,700 $3,400 0.78 23.5 -1.4 18.2 -6.9 11.9% -3.3% 22 1.95

Elite Plays – Dirk Nowitzki, Wesley Matthews (DK)

Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes, Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews (FD)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns aren’t going to make the playoffs anytime soon, but they are always one of our favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at the third fastest pace of any team in the NBA and their defense is one of the worst, which generally creates good game environments for fantasy production. Phoenix draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Suns implied total is low, but with this game being played in Mexico City and with Dallas finally looking like a decent offensive team, I expect this game to turn into a shootout.

The Suns have been one of the most frustrating teams to target in DFS this season, but it is slowly getting better. Their rotation has been more predictable lately and their players have been a little more consistent. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker both provide high ceilings, but they have also had very low floors this season. The same can be said for T.J. Warren, but I’m more willing to take a chance on him given the price savings. He should see close to 30 minutes of action tonight and on the season he is averaging 0.79 fantasy points per minute. The volatility of all of these Suns’ players makes them better GPP targets than cash game options. P.J. Tucker is playing starter’s minutes off the bench and is a viable punt play at small forward. Tyson Chandler has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three straight games and has a revenge narrative of his own brewing, as he gets to square off against his former team.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,200 $7,100 1.10 32.6 2.0 35.9 3.7 29.8% -1.1% 1 -1.42
Devin Booker $6,100 $6,200 0.81 33.6 5.1 27.1 4.8 27.3% 0.4% 11 0.01
T.J. Warren $4,700 $4,400 0.79 29.1 -6.4 23.1 -8.2 21.0% -5.2% 4 -0.69
Marquese Chriss $3,900 $3,700 0.73 17.8 9.5 13.1 10.2 19.2% -3.2% 10 0.21
Tyson Chandler $5,200 $4,900 0.84 27.5 3.3 23.0 7.5 10.5% -2.5% 15 4.43
P.J. Tucker $3,900 $4,000 0.62 27.3 4.2 16.9 2.1 11.2% -0.7% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, P.J. Tucker, Tyson Chandler

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious