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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-04 15:37:57

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM

Phoenix Suns Miami Heat
phoenixnba Vegas Total 210.5 miaminba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd 13.5 Vegas Sprd -13.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 112.0
Team Pace 100.40 Team Pace 95.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Alex Len Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Amar’e Stoudemire
Opp. Season 2 2 17 4 6 Opp. Season 29 30 27 16 8
Last 3 Weeks 5 7 17 22 2 Last 3 Weeks 28 30 15 27 24

Phoenix Suns

Record: 15-45 — Road: 4-24 — Last 10: 1-9

The Suns have lost nine of their last ten games and have an ugly 4-24 record on the road. It should come as no surprise that they are listed as 13.5-point underdogs tonight against the Heat in Miami. In addition to the potential blowout, this is also a bad game environment. The Suns are only projected to score 98.5 points, which is easily the lowest team total on the board.

The Heat are always a team that I try to avoid taking players against. They play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA (95.4 possessions per game) and are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. If we had a full slate tonight, the Suns would be an easy team to avoid completely. However, with limited options at each position, there are two players on my radar from Phoenix.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Alex Len
alex-len-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.2 24.4 4.2 28.1 7.9
FPPG (FD) 18.5 28.5 10.1 31.7 13.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.4 21.8 6.3 23.8 8.4

The Suns finally got the hint: if you are going to continue to lose games, you might as well try to develop your young talent. In Tuesday’s night blowout loss to the Hornets, Len played 34 minutes. This may be a little aggressive, but I think we can project him to play 30+ minutes a night moving forward. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Heat, but his price is only going to go up from here. If you aren’t using Hassan Whiteside, Len is the next best option at center.

Mirza Teletovic
mirza-teletovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$5,700
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.2 24.2 5.0 25.9 6.7
FPPG (FD) 16.7 24.7 8.0 27.0 10.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 22.8 3.1 22.4 2.7

Teletovic is a spark plug off the bench and in a difficult matchup against Miami, the Suns are going to need all of the spark that they can get. Teletovic is often thought of as a volatile, high upside play, but he has been very consistent lately. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last seven games. Given the matchup, he is still a better GPP play, but he is worth a look in cash games moving forward.

Miami Heat

Record: 34-26 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat have played well since the All-Star break and are now eight games above .500. They draw a great fantasy matchup against the Suns, who have been a bottom three defense for the better part of two months. The Heat are projected to score 112 points, which is the third highest team total on the board. Miami also has the highest projected point differential of any team in this four game slate.

The Suns have been atrocious defensively, especially over the last couple of months. They are now ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The main concern here is the potential for a blowout. With a 13.5-point spread, the Heat starters could potentially end up sitting in the fourth quarter. We generally don’t worry as much about blowouts when it comes to favorites though, as their players had to have played well to build such a big lead.

Elite Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.7 29.2 0.5 32.9 4.2
FPPG (FD) 34.5 41.5 7.0 46.0 11.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 18.5 3.3 18.2 3.0

Whiteside has always been a great rebounder and a great shot blocker, but he is starting to develop a nice offensive game as well. He is coming off of a career-high 26 points the other night against the Bulls. Even though he comes off the bench, he is still the Heat’s starting center. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against an awful Suns’ defense. Whiteside is the premier play at center.

Secondary Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$7,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 33.1 2.5 34.4 3.8
FPPG (FD) 31.4 32.6 1.2 34.9 3.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.1 28.0 0.9 28.9 1.8

Wade is finally starting to see more minutes, which has led to a nice boost in production. Over his last five games, he is averaging 34.9 fantasy points in 34.4 minutes per contest. If the spread was a little closer, he would be an elite play in this short slate. However, Wade is the one Heat player that they look to get rest when the game gets out of hand. He is still a strong play, but not a must start in a potential blowout.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 34.0 2.2 34.7 2.9
FPPG (FD) 22.0 30.0 8.0 30.2 8.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 18.6 4.0 19.2 4.6

Deng has really flourished playing power forward in Chris Bosh absence. In his last ten games, he is averaging 30 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. His usage is way up and he is also rebounding the ball at a higher rate. Deng is in play on both sites, but I prefer to use him on FanDuel. He is cheaper and we have to roster two small forwards.

Goran Dragic
goran-dragic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$6,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 33.8 1.2 35.3 2.7
FPPG (FD) 25.5 33.6 8.1 32.7 7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 21.8 4.0 21.7 4.0

The Dragon has been playing some very good basketball recently, averaging 33.6 fantasy points in 33.8 minutes in his last ten games. His usage has also gone way up with Chris Bosh out and he draws one of the best matchups that a point guard could possibly have. The Suns are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position.

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

San Antonio Spurs New Orleans Pelicans
sanantonionba Vegas Total 207.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd -8.5 Vegas Sprd 8.5
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 99.3
Team Pace 96.40 Team Pace 98.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Norris Cole Eric Gordon Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Kendrick Perkins
Opp. Season 15 25 12 14 29 Opp. Season 5 1 1 5 4
Last 3 Weeks 26 27 10 14 27 Last 3 Weeks 9 5 1 13 5

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 51-9 — Road: 22-9 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs have won nine of their last ten games and are now 51-9 overall. They are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back tonight, as they travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. This game features an 8.5-point spread with the total set at 207 points. The Spurs are projected to score 107.8 points in this matchup, which is 2.8 points above their scoring average.

The Pelicans have really struggled to defend all season. They are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. In theory, this is a good spot to target the Spurs, but we can never fully trust Greg Popovich in a back-to-back situation. I feel a lot more comfortable targeting the young players than the veterans. Danny Green is an interesting tournament pivot from the should be popular Wesley Matthews.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard
kawhi-leonard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.18
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 32.7 0.2 34.5 2.0
FPPG (FD) 36.2 39.7 3.5 42.4 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 21.4 23.5 2.1 23.2 1.7

Leonard isn’t getting as much recognition as he usually does when he goes on these tears. Very few people are talking about him, even though he is averaging 42.4 fantasy points over his last five games. There is always the concern that Popovich will rest his starters in the fourth quarter, but Leonard is by far the safest Spurs’ player to target of the bunch.

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge
lamarcus-aldridge-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$6,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.9 31.8 1.9 33.4 3.5
FPPG (FD) 30.7 34.1 3.3 35.4 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 21.7 0.1 21.0 -0.6

Aldridge had a nice little run while Tim Duncan was out, but even with the Old Fundamental back in the lineup, Aldridge has produced at a high level. Over his last five games, he is averaging 35.4 fantasy points in 33.4 minutes per contest. Power forward is a tough position to fill and Aldridge makes for a decent target in both cash games and tournaments.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 23-36 — Home: 16-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans have been playing some good ball recently, winning five of their last ten games. They draw the worst matchup in all of daily fantasy basketball tonight though, as they host the Spurs. The Pelicans are only projected to score 99.3 points, which is 3.5 points below their scoring average and the second lowest team total on the board.

The Spurs have been tremendous on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked first or second in all four of the defensive statistics listed above. They are also ranked fifth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. If we had a full slate, I would be fading the Pelicans completely. However, there are two players on my radar for tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis
anthony-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$9,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 36.9 1.2 39.5 3.8
FPPG (FD) 44.2 47.7 3.5 52.6 8.4
TO-Adj. Usage 24.5 27.1 2.6 24.2 -0.4

I was not on Davis last night and unfortunately his ownership was a lot lower than it would have been if he was announced active before lineups locked. For whatever reason, he has not played well in favorable matchups this season. He does however, have a good track record against the Spurs. In their two meetings this season, he has averaged 53.6 fantasy points. While it makes sense to target the superstars in the Warriors/Thunder game when it comes to cash games, I do like Davis as a contrarian GPP option.

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 31.2 4.5 31.1 4.4
FPPG (FD) 28.7 38.9 10.2 32.8 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 24.8 28.1 3.4 24.9 0.1

Holiday has played well in some difficult matchups this season and while I will not be looking his way in cash games, he does have a lot of upside for a player that will be less than 10% owned. Over his last ten games, Holiday is averaging 38.9 fantasy points in 31.2 minutes per contest. His usage has taken a small hit since Eric Gordon returned to the lineup though.

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM

Sacramento Kings Dallas Mavericks
sacramentonba Vegas Total 220.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 113.8
Team Pace 102.40 Team Pace 96.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 11 9 9 27 14 Opp. Season 27 29 23 29 20
Last 3 Weeks 7 14 23 15 30 Last 3 Weeks 29 25 21 20 7

Sacramento Kings

Record: 24-35 — Road: 10-19 — Last 10: 3-7

The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games, including a loss to the Grizzlies last night. They have a quick turnaround, as they take on the Mavericks in Dallas tonight. The Kings are listed as 7-point underdogs with an implied team total of 106.8 points. They have the sixth worst projected point differential tonight, but their team total is nearly identical to their scoring average.

The Mavericks have been a mediocre fantasy matchup all season. They are ranked between 15th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo are both listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Omri Casspi and Darren Collison would both see major boosts if Gay and Rondo are unable to suit up.

Elite Plays

NONE – Unless Rudy Gay and/or Rajon Rondo are ruled out.

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$10,700
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.37 FP/Min:1.49
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 36.3 1.8 35.9 1.4
FPPG (FD) 47.2 50.1 2.9 51.1 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 29.3 29.7 0.4 31.6 2.3

It feels strange listing Cousins as a secondary play two nights in a row. While I could certainly see him having a big game tonight, his numbers in back-to-backs haven’t been great this season. He also draws a mediocre matchup at best tonight against Zaza Pachulia. Cousins always has 60 fantasy point upside, but I’m going to limit my exposure to him in GPPs.

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,000 Salary:$8,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 35.3 0.2 36.4 1.3
FPPG (FD) 38.2 42.3 4.2 39.0 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 17.9 0.6 15.9 -1.4

This pick obviously hinges on his availability for tonight, but Rondo has a lot going for him. First off, it’s a short slate so the point guard position isn’t nearly as stacked as it usually is. Second, he is facing his former team in the Mavericks and the two did not split on good terms. We have seen him play well against the Celtics and I expect him to come out with a chip on his shoulder tonight against the Mavericks.

Omri Casspi
omri-casspi-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.6 23.3 -5.3 21.2 -7.4
FPPG (FD) 22.2 19.5 -2.6 18.0 -4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 15.9 1.9 15.9 1.9

This pick hinges on the availability of Rudy Gay. If Gay is ruled out, Casspi would likely draw another start at small forward. He has really made the most of his opportunities in the starting lineup, averaging just over 25 fantasy points per game. Should Gay get ruled out, Casspi would provide some much needed value in this short slate.

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 33-28 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Mavericks haven’t been playing their best basketball recently, but they are still five games above .500 on the season. They draw a dream matchup tonight against the Kings at home. The Mavericks are projected to score 113.8 points, which is the second highest team total on the board. It is also a whopping 11.3 points above their scoring average.

The Kings play at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. They also allow more points per game than any team in the NBA. They are the premier matchup in fantasy basketball and we can employ a mini-stack against them tonight, especially since the slate is so small. The best part is that the Mavericks don’t play again until Sunday, so their starters should all see their usual share of minutes.

Elite Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
dirk-nowitzki-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.0 32.1 1.1 29.1 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 30.0 30.0 0.1 32.4 2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 21.6 21.6 0.0 23.3 1.7

When a team faces the Kings, basically everyone is in play. The Mavericks are projected to score more than ten points above their scoring average. Nowitzki typically doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he does in this matchup. The Kings are ranked 29th against power forwards this season.

Chandler Parsons
chandler-parsons-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.6 32.3 3.7 30.1 1.5
FPPG (FD) 23.1 29.3 6.2 29.4 6.3
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 19.0 1.7 20.9 3.6

Parsons has been playing some some solid basketball recently, averaging 29.3 fantasy points in 32.3 minutes over his last ten games. The price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for him, but the matchup against the Kings more than makes up for it. I want as much exposure to this matchup as I can get tonight.

Deron Williams
deron-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 32.7 0.7 29.4 -2.6
FPPG (FD) 25.7 27.7 1.9 23.7 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.0 19.2 0.2 16.8 -2.2

Williams has been a little banged up recently and it has shown in his play. His usage, production, and minutes are all down over his last five games. Luckily, he gets to face the worst defensive team in the NBA and his price is depressed. That’s a great combination for a bounce back game from Williams.

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.62 FP/Min:0.67
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.0 32.7 -0.3 31.5 -1.5
FPPG (FD) 20.3 20.3 0.0 26.1 5.8
TO-Adj. Usage 15.2 14.2 -1.1 17.5 2.3

Matthews is going to be the chalk at shooting guard tonight and for good reason. The position is thin, he has been playing well, and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. I mentioned earlier that Danny Green is an interesting pivot in tournaments, but there is no reason to fade Matthews tonight in cash games.

Secondary Plays

David Lee
david-lee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 16.1 19.0 2.9 19.0 2.9
FPPG (FD) 16.4 23.9 7.4 23.9 7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 17.1 -2.6 17.1 -2.6

I wanted to put Zaza Pachulia here, but his minutes have been way down recently. I prefer Alex Len over Pachulia tonight. Lee is worth a look though, as he has really played well since joining the Mavericks. Over his last five games, he is averaging 23.9 fantasy points. He should see 20-22 minutes tonight against the Kings.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 230.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 230.0
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 111.3 Team Proj. 118.8
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 102.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 25 10 14 15 21 Opp. Season 22 23 8 10 5
Last 3 Weeks 30 21 3 18 28 Last 3 Weeks 22 20 6 21 12

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 42-19 — Road: 17-11 — Last 10: 4-6

The Thunder have blown two fourth quarter leads in a row. Their loss against the Warriors was bad, but it was nothing like their collapse against the Clippers last night. Oklahoma City now has to play the second half of a back-to-back against a team that has yet to lose at home. The Thunder are 7.5-point underdogs tonight, but they do have a high team total of 111.3 points.

The Warriors are always a team that we can target players against, especially when the spread is less than ten points. They play at such a fast pace that it creates more opportunities for points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. The Thunder offense sees a nice boost as a whole tonight, but there are really only two players that we can feel confident in targeting.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$11,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.43 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.6 36.0 1.4 37.5 2.9
FPPG (FD) 49.5 54.1 4.6 52.9 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 28.7 28.2 -0.5 29.1 0.4

Westbrook almost led his team to a victory over the Warriors the other night in overtime, but Stephen Curry had other plans. Westrook is as competitive of a guy as you will find in the NBA and you know that he wants some revenge tonight. He is my favorite overall play on the board tonight, but with limited value, it may be tough to pay up for him (especially on DraftKings).

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.38
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 36.3 0.2 36.9 0.8
FPPG (FD) 45.7 50.2 4.4 54.1 8.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.7 28.0 2.3 27.9 2.2

Durant had another big outing last night and is now averaging 54.1 fantasy points over his last five games. He played well against the Warriors the other night, although he did have the turnover that eventually led to the overtime. Durant is locked and loaded right now and is easily the top small forward on the board.

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 33.8 1.0 35.1 2.3
FPPG (FD) 26.2 26.2 0.1 28.4 2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 14.5 -0.1 15.5 0.9

Ibaka is not a player that I target often in daily fantasy basketball. His range of outcomes is too wide for my liking, especially in cash games. However, power forward is a tough spot, which makes Ibaka a top-three play at the position. I don’t love the matchup against Draymond Green, but you could certainly do worse than Ibaka tonight.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 54-5 — Home: 25-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors almost lost their perfect record at home the other night against the Hawks, but they outlasted Atlanta in overtime to improve to 25-0 at Oracle Arena. They draw another tough test tonight against a Thunder team that can not be happy with their recent play in the fourth quarter. The Warriors are listed as 7.5-point favorites here with their team total set at 118.8 points.

The Thunder are a mediocre matchup by most metrics. On the season, they are ranked between tenth and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala are both officially listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but Curry made it through a full practice yesterday and is tentatively expected to play tonight. If Curry does end up being out, give a sizable boost to the rest of the Warriors’ lineup.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$10,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.57
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 34.5 0.6 35.8 1.9
FPPG (FD) 48.1 54.3 6.3 61.4 13.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 30.9 3.1 32.3 4.5

As long as Curry is active tonight, we should consider him close to 100%. Even though he missed some time in the last game against the Thunder, he still managed to put up 60 fantasy points in 38 minutes. He’s a strong play yet again, but I slightly prefer Russell Westbrook if I had to choose one over the other.

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.24
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 35.7 1.2 38.5 4.0
FPPG (FD) 38.8 35.9 -2.9 40.9 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 13.7 -2.4 14.0 -2.1

Green’s production has been down ever since Steve Kerr came back and started coaching the team. It will be interesting to see if that’s just noise or if Green is no longer a $9k player in DFS. Green is coming off of that big game against the Hawks, but should go back to his regular role if Stephen Curry is available to play.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$7,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 34.9 1.8 35.7 2.6
FPPG (FD) 30.3 33.5 3.2 35.8 5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 22.2 24.4 2.2 25.4 3.3

Thompson has been putting up a ton of shots lately, even with Stephen Curry in the lineup. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 33.5 fantasy points with a TO-adjusted usage rate of 24.4. I have no qualms with using Thompson in cash games or tournaments, although he is a little expensive on DraftKings.

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.9 32.2 2.3 33.2 3.3
FPPG (FD) 20.9 19.9 -0.9 18.1 -2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 12.5 -1.8 11.6 -2.7

Barnes is a sheer volume play tonight. His production hasn’t been great recently, but he should see 30+ minutes in the highest scoring game of the night. Barnes is also cheap and fills a position that doesn’t have a lot of options.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious