Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-06 17:29:39

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Oklahoma City at Chicago – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Chicago
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 211.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 106.0
Team Pace 102.40 Team Pace 101.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 18 8 30 7 26 Opp. Season 10 27 25 19 16
Opp. Last 7 18 8 30 7 26 Opp. Last 7 10 27 25 19 16

Oklahoma City

The Thunder appeared to be en route to an easy victory over the Raptors last night, but they were outscored by 13 points in the fourth quarter. They now have a quick turnaround, as they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in the second half of a back-to-back. Even though Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook both played big minutes last night, they are both expected to be in the lineup tonight.

Under head coach Fred Hoiberg, the Bulls have taken a step back defensively this season. The sample size is still small, but they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bulls also play at a fast pace, averaging 101.1 possessions per game this season. The Thunder have an implied team total of 105 points tonight, which is the second highest on the schedule.

Once again, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are both in play tonight. The Thunder play at such a fast pace that it’s possible for both players to reach value in the same game, although I usually don’t like to wrap up that much of my salary on two players from the same team. On a night with only five games, both players can be used tonight, separately or in conjunction junction, what’s your function? Schoolhouse Rock, anyone? Serge Ibaka is also in play here and D.J. Augustin has been a nice value play off the bench this season.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,400
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 35.5
FP/Game: 52.1 — FP/Min: 1.45

Kevin Durant

FD: $10,000 — DK: $9,200
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 28.1
FP/Game: 40.1 — FP/Min: 1.06

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 16.9
FP/Game: 31.8 — FP/Min: 0.96

D.J. Augustin

FD: $4,100 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 19.0 — Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 19.3 — FP/Min: 1.02

Chicago

The Bulls are 3-2 to start the season. They are one-point favorites tonight against the Thunder in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair. Both of these teams are in the top half of the league in pace of play and both teams have struggled on the defensive end of the floor. With the total set at 211 points, this is projected to be the highest scoring game on the board.

The Thunder are an elite rebounding team, but they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Bulls have an implied team total of 106 points, which is the highest on the board tonight. After a poor showing against the Hornets, look for the Bulls to bounce back tonight at home.

The biggest issue with the Bulls is their deep rotation. Jimmy Butler is the only starter that plays more than 35 minutes per game and with four big men rotating in and out, players have to make the most of their limited action. Butler remains an elite play at shooting guard. He contributes in all areas of the stat sheet and he has a high usage rate of 21.8 this season. Nikola Mirotic is a high-volume scorer and is also a borderline elite play in what should be a fast-paced game.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 21.8
FP/Game: 37.0 — FP/Min: 1.03

Nikola Mirotic

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 24.8
FP/Game: 25.3 — FP/Min: 0.87

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 21.4
FP/Game: 29.6 — FP/Min: 1.06

Derrick Rose

FD: $6,900 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 23.7
FP/Game: 19.7 — FP/Min: 0.64

Miami at Minnesota – 8:00 PM

Miami Minnesota
miaminba Vegas Total 195.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 96.0
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 102.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 9 23 3 6 18 Opp. Season 5 7 10 23 13
Opp. Last 7 9 23 3 6 18 Opp. Last 7 5 7 10 23 13

Miami

The Heat are 2-2 to start the season, although they do have a positive point differential of 4.4 per game. They will look to get back above .500 tonight against the Wolves in Minnesota. This will be a pace-up game for Miami, as the Wolves have averaged six more possessions per game than the Heat have this season.

On paper, Miami’s matchup against the Wolves looks less than ideal, but I’m chalking up the Wolves’ solid defense to a small sample size. Minnesota was one of the worst defenses in the NBA last season and they are playing at a fast pace again this year. The Heat have an implied team total of 99.5 points, which is the fourth highest of the ten teams playing tonight.

The Heat are a lot like the Bulls in that they have a very deep rotation. So far this season, only one starter – Chris Bosh, has averaged more than 30 minutes per game. Minutes are gold in daily fantasy basketball and we want to fill out our lineups with that in mind. Even though he is only playing 30 minutes per game, Dwyane Wade is an elite play tonight. He affordably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has a very high usage rate of 33.4. Hassan Whiteside is also in play here. He has scored 52 and 45 fantasy points in the last two games.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade

FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 33.4
FP/Game: 31.9 — FP/Min: 1.06

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 20.2
FP/Game: 36.1 — FP/Min: 1.20

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 20.6
FP/Game: 32.1 — FP/Min: 1.00

Minnesota

The Wolves experienced their first loss of the season the other night against the Blazers. They are now 2-1, which is still a good start for this talented young team. They are listed as small underdogs tonight against the Heat, but they will be playing in front of their home crowd.

The Wolves have had a very favorable schedule so far this season and they will face their toughest test to date tonight. The Heat were one of the best defenses in the NBA last season and I expect that to be the case again this year. Miami plays at a slow pace and they are ranked seventh in points allowed per game and sixth in fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Wolves have an implied team total of 96 points tonight, which is nearly seven points lower than their season average.

Ricky Rubio has been the fantasy star of this Wolves’ team in the early going, averaging 41.2 fantasy points per game. He has been more aggressive offensively, which should make him a more consistent fantasy option this season. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns both offer good value at their respective price points, but both player have struggled with consistency. They also draw difficult matchups against Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside.

Elite Plays

Ricky Rubio

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 22.0
FP/Game: 41.2 — FP/Min: 1.29

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

FD: $6,900 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 30.6
FP/Game: 19.1 — FP/Min: 0.68

Karl-Anthony Towns

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 23.5
FP/Game: 34.2 — FP/Min: 1.10

Charlotte at Dallas – 8:30 PM

Charlotte Dallas
charlottenba Vegas Total 198.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 198.5
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 97.3 Team Proj. 101.3
Team Pace 97.70 Team Pace 101.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker P.J. Hairston Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Al Jefferson Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 8 12 7 30 7 Opp. Season 11 21 13 15 11
Opp. Last 7 8 12 7 30 7 Opp. Last 7 11 21 13 15 11

Charlotte

The Hornets are coming off of a dominant performance against the Bulls to pick up their first win of the season. Cody Zeller took a blow to the head that required eight stitches in that game, but he is being listed as probable for tonight’s contest against the Mavericks.

Despite a fast pace of play, the Mavericks have been stingy on defense this season. They are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. This will be a pace-up game for the Hornets, but they have a low implied team total of 97.5 points.

Even with Cody Zeller back in the mix, Marvin Williams should draw another start at power forward tonight. He has certainly earned it with his play this season, as he has averaged ten points, nine rebounds, and three assists per game. He remains an elite play tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson, and Nicolas Batum are also in play, although Batum is the only player I’m considering in cash games.

Elite Plays

Marvin Williams

FD: $4,800 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 14.4
FP/Game: 26.1 — FP/Min: 0.79

Secondary Plays

Al Jefferson

FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 24.1
FP/Game: 27.6 — FP/Min: 1.06

Kemba Walker

FD: $7,200 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 23.5
FP/Game: 30.4 — FP/Min: 0.95

Nicolas Batum

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 22.3
FP/Game: 29.3 — FP/Min: 0.89

Dallas

The Mavericks are looking for their third win of the season tonight, as they host the visiting Hornets. Dallas has been a tough team to target for fantasy purposes, as three of their starters have been on a minute restriction. Deron Williams appears to be off of his restriction, but Chandler Parsons (15-16 minutes) and Wesley Matthews (28 minutes) are still on theirs.

The Mavericks draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game this season. Even though this should be a pace-down game for Dallas, they still have the third highest implied team total at 101.3 points.

A minute restriction is always a red flag in daily fantasy basketball. As I always say, minutes provide opportunity and opportunity leads to production. For that reason, I will be avoided Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons tonight. Dirk Nowitzki has been the most consistent fantasy option in this offense, but we shouldn’t expect him to play 35 minutes anytime soon. Dwight Powell may be the best play here, as he has averaged 22.9 fantasy points in 22 minutes per game this season.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 21.4
FP/Game: 32.4 — FP/Min: 1.16

Dwight Powell

FD: $4,000 — DK: $3,900
Min/Game: 22.0 — Usage: 22.9
FP/Game: 22.9 — FP/Min: 1.04

Utah at Denver – 9:00 PM

Utah Denver
utahnba Vegas Total 190.0 denvernba Vegas Total 190.0
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 95.8 Team Proj. 94.3
Team Pace 94.50 Team Pace 100.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opp. Season 26 30 5 24 1 Opp. Season 3 3 15 2 2
Opp. Last 7 26 30 5 24 1 Opp. Last 7 3 3 15 2 2

Utah

The Jazz looked like a completely different team last night. They looked lost defensively, as the Blazers connected on 53.1% of their field goal attempts. Look for that performance to be more of an exception rather than the rule for this defense. Luckily, they have a good chance to get back on track tonight against an inefficient Nuggets’ offense.

The Jazz draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Jazz may not have the highest implied team total – 95.8 points, but they should see a boost in possessions tonight against the fast-paced Nuggets.

Rodney Hood should fly under the radar tonight thanks to the fact that he has only averaged 26 minutes per game this season. This is a case where sometimes we have dig a little deeper. Hood’s minutes would be much higher, but he has been in foul trouble in three of the first four games. Assuming he can keep his hands out of the cookie jar tonight, he should see 30+ minutes against a bad Nuggets’ defense. Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors are both in play down low against a weak interior defense. It’s also a good time to buy low on Gordon Hayward, who has gotten off to a very slow start this season.

Elite Plays

Rodney Hood

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 25.5
FP/Game: 23.9 — FP/Min: 0.92

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 26.5
FP/Game: 39.7 — FP/Min: 1.32

Rudy Gobert

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 12.2
FP/Game: 32.2 — FP/Min: 0.98

Gordon Hayward

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 24.3
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min: 0.62

Denver

The Nuggets are 2-2 to start the season. They have only scored 99 points per game, despite facing four below average defenses in the Rockets, T-Wolves, Thunder, and Lakers. Even though this game will be played in Denver, they may have a tough time offensively tonight against the Jazz. Joffrey Lauvergne is doubtful for tonight’s game, but the Nuggets sound optimistic that Nikola Jokic will be able to play.

The Blazers were able to score 108 points against this vaunted Jazz defense last night, but that was an anomaly. The Jazz are still ranked first in points allowed per game, second in defensive efficiency, ninth in rebounding differential, and first in fantasy points allowed per game. The Jazz are also the slowest paced team in the NBA.

All of this points to a complete fade of the Nuggets tonight. Feel free to take a chance on a player or two here if you want, but I won’t be joining you in that quest for fantasy imperfection.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis at Portland – 10:30 PM

Memphis Portland
memphisnba Vegas Total 193.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 94.8
Team Pace 97.50 Team Pace 102.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 29 25 1 8 17 Opp. Season 15 20 27 11 12
Opp. Last 7 29 25 1 8 17 Opp. Last 7 15 20 27 11 12

Memphis

The Grizzlies have been the most inconsistent team in the NBA this season. They are 3-2 to start the season and all five of their games have been decided by nine or more points. They are either blowing teams out or getting blown out themselves. Hopefully, that will change tonight, as they are 4-point favorites against the Blazers.

The Blazers have played at a fast pace this season, but they have been stout defensively. They are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Grizzlies have an implied team total of 98.8 points, which is the fifth highest of the ten teams playing tonight.

Marc Gasol is questionable to play tonight, after hurting his neck in a collision with Darren Collison. If he is unable to play, give a nice boost to both Zach Randolph and Brandan Wright. Mike Conley is a borderline elite play tonight. His minutes have been inconsistent due to the blowouts, but he is averaging close to a fantasy point per minute and he could play upward of 35 minutes tonight. Tony Allen and Courtney Lee are both decent punt plays.

Elite Plays

Mike Conley

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 19.8
FP/Game: 28.1 — FP/Min: 0.97

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 24.8
FP/Game: 22.4 — FP/Min: 0.80

Tony Allen

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 21.0 — Usage: 15.9
FP/Game: 17.4 — FP/Min: 0.83

Courtney Lee

FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 18.2
FP/Game: 17.4 — FP/Min: 0.58

Portland

The Blazers have won back-to-back road games against the Wolves and the Jazz. They will look for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Grizzlies. Memphis has been a tough team to predict this season, but if we trust the larger sample size from last year, they were one of the worst teams to target players against.

As mentioned above, the Grizzlies have been very inconsistent this season, which has led to some odd defensive rankings. As the sample size gets larger, I fully expect them to be a top ten defense in the NBA. The Blazers have a low implied team total of 94.8 points, which is seven points lower than their season average.

Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Al-Farouq Aminu have all been viable fantasy options in the early going, but they are all in tough matchups tonight. Lillard will be defended by Mike Conley, while McCollum and Aminu will be defended by Tony Allen and Courtney Lee. With McCollum off to a great start, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Grizzlies start Allen on him. All three of these Blazers are secondary plays. Meyers Leonard left last night’s game with an ankle injury. If he is unable to play tonight, give a boost to Mason Plumlee, Noah Vonleh, and Ed Davis.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Damian Lillard

FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,700
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 33.1
FP/Game: 40.7 — FP/Min: 1.10

C.J. McCollum

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 25.6
FP/Game: 33.6 — FP/Min: 0.96

Al-Farouq Aminu

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 18.9
FP/Game: 27.2 — FP/Min: 0.82

Mason Plumlee

FD: $5,100 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 21.0 — FP/Min: 0.78

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious