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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 19th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Philadelphia 76ers
sacramentonba Vegas Total 208.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Implied Team Total 99.8 Implied Team Total 108.3
Pace Projection +/- 3.5 Pace Projection +/- -2.8
Projected Starters De’Aaron Fox Buddy Hield Garrett Temple Zach Randolph Kosta Koufos Projected Starters Ben Simmons J.J. Redick Robert Covington Dario Saric Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 22 29 23 23 DvP 11 14 12 16 30
DRPM Rat. 1 29 1 28 3 DRPM Rat. 29 11 12 20 19

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have won four of their last ten games and have been competitive in recent weeks. While tonight’s game against the Sixers has the largest spread on the board, I like the Kings’ chances to keep this game within striking distance. If that’s the case, we can expect a full allotment of minutes for the starters from both teams. As for the matchup, the Sixers are ranked fourth in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game. The Kings may have the lowest implied total on the board, but they have the second best projected point differential (+3.7).

De’Aaron Fox sat out Sunday’s game with a bruised quad, but was able to practice yesterday and is listed as probable. George Hill has already been ruled out of tonight’s game with an illness, which opens the door for Fox, Frank Mason, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Buddy Hield. The last time Hill missed a game, here is how the minute distribution of those four players broke out: Fox 23, Mason 25, Bogdanovic 29, and Hield 28. Of the four, I have the most interest in Hield and Bogdanovic, but they are both secondary plays at shooting guard.

The Sixers are a lot more vulnerable to opposing frontcourts when Joel Embiid is off the floor, but this the Kings’ bigs aren’t an auto-fade. Philadelphia is currently ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards and 24th to centers. Zach Randolph will be well rested, as hasn’t played in five days. His salary feels a bit high now that Willie Cauley-Stein is back, but Z-Bo deserves a look in tournaments. Cauley-Stein doesn’t have the most consistent role, but he’s the Kings’ best shot at slowing Joel Embiid down. If he stays out of foul trouble, I wouldn’t be surprised to see WCS hit the 30-minute mark.

Notable Injuries

George Hill (Out)
Bogdan Bogdanovic (Questionable)
De’Aaron Fox (Probable)

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 96.1 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (2 of 6)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.3 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.1 (4 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
De’Aaron Fox $4,200 $4,300 $8,200 20.2 -12.0 25.6 -8.3 0.79 21.1% 16 23 1
Buddy Hield $4,900 $4,600 $10,200 21.0 -5.8 22.9 0.1 0.92 21.6% 24 22 29
Garrett Temple $3,700 $3,600 $7,000 15.9 -4.0 24.5 -6.5 0.65 14.5% 15 29 1
Zach Randolph $7,000 $6,400 $13,100 28.4 3.6 25.9 2.6 1.10 24.1% 12 18 28
Kosta Koufos $4,000 $3,400 $6,400 17.0 5.9 18.5 1.2 0.92 12.5% 15 24 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic $4,700 $4,300 $8,200 18.9 3.8 24.8 6.1 0.76 17.5% N/A N/A N/A
Willie Cauley-Stein $6,000 $5,200 $10,200 24.3 -0.6 24.9 2.6 0.97 18.3% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Zach Randolph, Willie Cauley-Stein


Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, which was the main reason why Joel Embiid didn’t play last night against the Bulls. He will be in the starting lineup tonight, although Trevor Booker is going to miss at least one more game. Even though the Kings play at a slow pace, they are still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. If the Sixers can control the pace, they should be able to score points at will. Their implied total of 108.3 points is the third highest on the board.

Ben Simmons has an incredibly high floor for a rookie. He has scored at least 46 fantasy points in five of his last six games and should have another nice outing tonight. I always prefer to target Simmons against teams that don’t have an elite rim protector, as he is at his best when he lives in the paint. J.J. Redick has been an inconsistent fantasy option throughout his career, but that has changed this season. These days, he’s actually a better cash game target than a tournament target thanks to his high floor.

Robert Covington is a bit overpriced on FanDuel ($7,400) and a bit underpriced on DraftKings ($6,200). If you play on both sites, it never hurts to price shop. Covington has been in good form and should see a full complement of minutes after only playing 30 last night. I was all over Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes last night, but will be hopping off now that Embiid is back in the lineup. Embiid has a dream matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 29th in efficiency and dead last in DvP against centers. As evidenced by his 48 minutes in the double overtime game against the Thunder, Embiid is no longer on any type of minute restriction.

Notable Injuries

Trevor Booker (Out)

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (4 of 6)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (28 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Ben Simmons $9,900 $9,500 $18,000 44.4 -2.1 36.8 3.9 1.21 23.2% 19 11 29
J.J. Redick $5,600 $5,400 $9,900 26.2 2.0 34.2 4.8 0.77 18.5% 9 14 11
Robert Covington $7,400 $6,200 $12,000 31.2 4.2 32.8 6.9 0.95 16.3% 18 12 12
Dario Saric $6,600 $6,100 $13,200 24.2 10.0 29.9 7.1 0.81 16.9% 25 16 20
Joel Embiid $11,500 $9,900 $18,900 46.4 7.2 31.4 12.6 1.48 27.8% 29 30 19
Richaun Holmes $3,900 $4,400 $8,700 16.1 11.4 15.6 6.8 1.03 16.2% N/A N/A N/A
T.J. McConnell $4,600 $4,100 $8,000 20.4 -1.9 23.8 0.5 0.86 15.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (FD), Robert Covington (DK), Joel Embiid (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (DK), J.J. Redick, T.J. McConnell


New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Washington Wizards
neworleansnba Vegas Total 219.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Implied Team Total 108.0 Implied Team Total 111.0
Pace Projection +/- -0.5 Pace Projection +/- 2.6
Projected Starters Rajon Rondo Jrue Holiday E’Twaun Moore Anthony Davis DeMarcus Cousins Projected Starters John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 6 24 2 9 DvP 22 27 28 29 13
DRPM Rat. 10 18 1 14 12 DRPM Rat. 25 10 29 2 7

New Orleans Pelicans

Funny story — when feeling out the “Notable Injuries” for the Pelicans, I instinctively typed Anthony Davis (Questionable) and then realized that he’s not even hurt. I suppose it’s probably better to be safe than sorry when it comes to Davis, so maybe I’ll just put “potential in-game injury” each night he’s on the schedule. Jokes aside, the Pelicans draw a mediocre matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked tenth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. New Orleans has an implied total of 108 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate, but three points below their season average.

Rajon Rondo had his minutes spike in two games recently, but the Pelicans were playing short-handed in both of them. With Jameer Nelson healthy, we should expect Rondo to play somewhere between 28 and 30 minutes a night moving forward. This doesn’t take him out of consideration, but it does lower his ceiling. If you are looking for a sneaky punt play in tournaments, Nelson could see around 25 minutes off the bench and he’s close to minimum salary. Jrue Holiday has played at least 41 minutes in three of his last four games. Even though his efficiency goes down when Davis is on the floor, he’s in play strictly because of his minute upside. E’Twaun Moore is one of the best value plays available tonight. It’s hard to find someone priced under $5,000 that we can project to play over 35 minutes.

At the time of writing this, we are still six hours from lineup lock so things could always change, but I’m currently planning to fade both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Davis has the better matchup of the two, but we know his history with injuries. Cousins is matchup-proof and deserves consideration in tournaments, but I prefer the two superstars that are squaring off in the Bucks-Cavaliers game. It’s not that Davis and Cousins can’t play well tonight, I just prefer the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James.

Notable Injuries

None

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 110.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (6 of 6)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,000 $6,000 $13,000 26.3 9.4 25.8 5.8 1.02 16.8% 5 14 10
Jrue Holiday $7,700 $7,100 $13,900 34.5 15.5 37.0 4.0 0.93 20.2% 12 6 18
E’Twaun Moore $4,600 $4,600 $8,000 21.7 5.1 32.6 5.9 0.67 14.3% 14 24 1
Anthony Davis $11,200 $10,100 $18,900 48.9 7.3 35.3 4.8 1.39 23.2% 18 2 14
DeMarcus Cousins $11,000 $10,700 $19,900 52.3 -8.0 35.5 -2.5 1.47 28.3% 12 9 12
Darius Miller $3,500 $3,400 $7,100 12.4 2.7 20.5 4.6 0.61 12.3% N/A N/A N/A
Jameer Nelson $3,700 $3,400 $6,600 16.9 3.1 25.0 1.8 0.67 12.8% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – E’Twaun Moore

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Jameer Nelson (GPP)


Washington Wizards

When there are only a few games on the schedule, the options at each position are limited. While this is one of the better three-game slates that we’ve had this season, I’m tempted to stack the Wizards in both cash games and tournaments. The Pelicans have been atrocious on the defensive end of the floor, allowing the second most points per game this season. They play at the sixth fastest pace, which is a nice boost for the Wizards’ offense as a whole. Washington has an implied total of 111 points, which is the highest on the board and nearly six points above their season average.

John Wall played 32 minutes in his last game, so he is close to being cleared for a full complement of minutes. It wouldn’t surprise me if he plays 34-36 minutes tonight, which puts him on my radar in all formats. Rajon Rondo is not a good defender and as a whole, the Pelicans are ranked 22nd in efficiency and DvP against point guards. Bradley Beal is a sneaky tournament play tonight given his matchup and elite usage rate, especially if Otto Porter is unable to suit up. Porter missed Sunday’s game and did not participate in this morning’s shootaround. This is purely speculation on my part, but I’d say that he’s 60/40 to sit out tonight.

If Porter is unable to suit up or if he is expected to be limited, Kelly Oubre becomes one of the top values plays of the slate. Oubre has played well recently, averaging 30 minutes and 25 fantasy points over his last four games. Markieff Morris has been outplayed by Mike Scott recently, which is a concern. Even though I tend to side with the starter in these situations, I prefer Scott over Morris tonight. Scott would enter elite play territory if Porter is ruled out. Marcin Gortat is always on my radar when the Wizards are facing a true center. I expect the Wizards to have Gortat or Ian Mahinmi on the floor for 90%+ of the game and I don’t expect Mahinmi to play more than 15-17 minutes. There’s a chance that Gortat could play 28-30 minutes if he stays out of foul trouble.

Notable Injuries

Otto Porter (Questionable)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 105.2 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 5.8 (1 of 6)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (6 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
John Wall $9,500 $8,800 $16,800 40.7 -5.2 33.7 -3.9 1.21 29.0% 23 22 25
Bradley Beal $8,400 $7,700 $14,800 36.4 5.1 35.4 3.5 1.03 27.1% 29 27 10
Otto Porter $6,900 $5,800 $13,000 30.6 -12.3 31.5 -9.6 0.97 17.3% 20 28 29
Markieff Morris $4,600 $4,600 $8,700 18.8 -2.3 23.2 -0.9 0.81 18.0% 17 29 2
Marcin Gortat $4,300 $4,700 $9,100 25.3 -1.0 28.3 -3.7 0.89 13.5% 22 13 7
Kelly Oubre $4,600 $4,700 $8,700 22.4 2.7 27.7 2.3 0.81 16.0% N/A N/A N/A
Mike Scott $4,500 $4,500 $9,200 16.1 9.0 19.1 5.5 0.85 16.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal (GPP), Kelly Oubre and Mike Scott (if Porter is out), Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (Cash), Kelly Oubre and Mike Scott (if Porter is active)


Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Milwaukee Bucks
clevelandnba Vegas Total 217.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Implied Team Total 109.5 Implied Team Total 107.5
Pace Projection +/- -2.0 Pace Projection +/- -0.5
Projected Starters Jose Calderon J.R. Smith LeBron James Jae Crowder Kevin Love Projected Starters Eric Bledsoe DeAndre Liggins Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo John Henson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 6 7 2 13 23 DvP 21 25 19 20 11
DRPM Rat. 11 15 26 2 3 DRPM Rat. 11 26 13 28 21

Cleveland Cavaliers

The final game of the night will be a fun one. The Cavaliers and Bucks have had some great battles over the last two games and Vegas is expecting another one. The spread is set at two points and the game features a total of 217 points. The Bucks are mediocre defensively, but currently have the second worst rebounding differential in the NBA. The Cavaliers’ implied total of 109.5 points is the second highest on the board and slightly below their season average.

Jose Calderon has played well over his last four games, averaging 25 minutes and 22 fantasy points during that stretch. You can chase the points if you’d like, but I will not be joining you on that quest. LeBron James has been outplayed by Giannis Antetokounmpo in their last five meetings, but I expect LeBron to show up and show out in this spot. He is having one of the best seasons of his career and could push for 40 minutes if this game stays close. I will be trying to jam James and Antetokounmpo into as many lineups as possible tonight.

Dwyane Wade has been one of the most volatile players in basketball. While I like that his price is under $5,000, I don’t love where his minutes and fantasy production are trending. I’ll gladly play E’Twaun Moore over him at shooting guard. Jeff Green should see minutes in the mid-20s and he has scored at least 21 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. He’s viable at power forward, especially on FanDuel where we have to roster two of them without multi-position eligibility. Kevin Love had 32 points and 16 rebounds against the Bucks earlier this season. He should feast once again, as the Bucks are ranked dead last in efficiency against centers. Love will likely get overlooked by the masses, making him one of my favorite GPP targets on the board.

Notable Injuries

None

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 111.1 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (5 of 6)

Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (23 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jose Calderon $4,200 $3,700 $7,200 10.3 11.9 17.2 7.3 0.60 11.2% 3 6 11
J.R. Smith $4,200 $4,000 $7,400 17.8 2.9 30.7 -0.3 0.58 12.0% 16 7 15
LeBron James $12,000 $11,600 $22,100 55.3 4.2 37.4 0.6 1.48 29.5% 12 2 26
Jae Crowder $3,500 $3,500 $6,800 15.5 -0.8 25.5 -1.9 0.61 13.7% 5 13 2
Kevin Love $8,000 $7,800 $14,200 36.1 1.8 29.4 1.4 1.23 23.0% 30 23 3
Dwyane Wade $4,800 $4,800 $10,000 24.3 -3.8 23.6 -2.4 1.03 23.0% N/A N/A N/A
Jeff Green $4,600 $4,300 $8,300 19.0 2.0 22.0 2.2 0.86 17.9% N/A N/A N/A
Tristan Thompson $3,500 $3,500 $6,800 11.7 -6.1 18.3 -8.9 0.64 7.6% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash), Jeff Green (FD)


Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been missing three of their guards the last few games, but all three are expected to be active tonight. This doesn’t directly impact anyone, but it could take a couple minutes away from Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon. Milwaukee draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Bucks have an implied total of 107.5 points, which gives them the third best projected point differential (+3.0) of the slate.

Before Jason Terry, Matthew Dellavedova, and Tony Snell were announced as probable, I had Eric Bledsoe as one of my top point-per-dollar targets at point guard. I had him projected for 34-35 minutes, but I’m going to bump that down to 32-33. He’s still viable, but not a core play for me tonight (i.e. one that I’ll have in every lineup). I’m also downgrading Brogdon, who will likely see fewer minutes off the bench. Khris Middleton is right up there with Kevin Love as my favorite tournament play of the slate. He should see 38-40 minutes in an exploitable matchup against the J.R. Smith and the Cavaliers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting the slight edge over LeBron James for me tonight, but I’m hoping that I can play the two together. The issue on FanDuel is that Kelly Oubre might become a must if Otto Porter is ruled out. If that happens, it’s going to be a difficult decision between Giannis and LeBron. I don’t love relying on past performances, but Giannis has scored at least 57 fantasy points in four of his last six games against LeBron and most of those came when the Cavaliers had a better defense than they do now. John Henson only played 17 minutes in his first meeting against the Cavaliers. He had no shot of defending Kevin Love on the perimeter. That’s a concern again tonight, although Henson’s $4,500 price on DraftKings is appealing.

Notable Injuries

Jason Terry (Probable)
Matthew Dellavedova (Probable)
Tony Snell (Probable)

Milwaukee Bucks Offense

Points Per Game: 104.5 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0 (3 of 6)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.2 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L4 +/- Minutes L4 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $7,100 $6,700 $13,500 32.6 -3.7 31.2 3.3 1.05 25.0% 18 21 11
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,300 $6,100 8.4 -2.6 15.7 -2.9 0.53 8.3% 19 25 26
Khris Middleton $7,800 $7,300 $12,900 35.4 4.7 37.0 0.7 0.96 22.4% 27 19 13
Giannis Antetokounmpo $12,300 $11,400 $21,000 56.5 4.6 37.9 2.9 1.49 29.3% 21 20 28
John Henson $5,500 $4,500 $8,700 22.5 5.4 23.8 3.0 0.94 12.4% 9 11 21
Malcolm Brogdon $4,900 $4,800 $8,900 23.4 -0.3 30.4 0.4 0.77 18.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon (GPP), John Henson (DK GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious