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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-18 03:33:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Miami Heat
houstonnba Vegas Total 221.5 miaminba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Spread -7.5 Vegas Spread 7.5
Team Total 114.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- 2.6
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Sam Dekker Clint Capela Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dion Waiters Rodney McGruder Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 15 12 11 15 20 Adj. DvP 17 24 10 29 15
DRPM -2.34 -0.11 -1.00 1.32 1.31 DRPM 1.85 -1.54 1.16 -0.86 0.87

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have won eight of their last ten games and are now only a half game behind the Spurs for second place in the Western Conference standings. It’s safe to say that they have surpassed all expectations this season, as everyone thought they were a piece or two away from being able to compete in the West. The Rockets travel to Miami tonight to take on the Heat in what will be a pace-down game for Houston. On the season, Miami is ranked 22nd in pace of play and ninth in points allowed per game. Even though the matchup isn’t ideal, the Rockets are still projected to score 114.5 points, which is the third highest implied total in the slate.

James Harden is second in the NBA in triple-doubles, but if the regular season ended today, he would be the odds-on favorite to ship the MVP trophy. He is averaging 53.6 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 38.8%. The Heat have been tough on wing players this season, but will be without two of their best defenders in Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. Harden is the only player priced above $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so he is going to soak up a ton of ownership in both cash games and tournaments. Patrick Beverley has been a high floor cash game option this season and he could see a few extra minutes tonight, as he’ll be tasked with defending Goran Dragic. Trevor Ariza and Sam Dekker could see some additional playing time tonight with Ryan Anderson doubtful. Dekker would become an elite value play if he enters the starting lineup. Eric Gordon could also see a small usage boost, as Anderson averages the third most shot attempts per game on the team. Clint Capela is expected to return to the lineup tonight, which should move Montrezl Harrell back to the bench. For now, both big men can be avoided until we see how the frontcourt rotation works with everyone healthy.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,300 $5,500 0.83 30.9 0.2 25.6 -1.3 15.7% -1.2% 15 -2.34
James Harden $12,300 $12,200 1.47 36.5 -0.9 53.6 -4.9 38.8% 0.6% 12 -0.11
Trevor Ariza $5,800 $5,600 0.77 34.2 2.4 26.2 1.3 14.9% 1.5% 11 -1.00
Sam Dekker $3,500 $3,200 0.77 18.6 -0.7 14.3 -0.9 15.4% 3.5% 15 1.32
Clint Capela $5,300 $4,600 1.04 24.5 25.5 18.1% 20 1.31
Eric Gordon $5,800 $5,800 0.85 30.6 -0.9 26.0 -3.6 23.6% -1.5% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Sam Dekker (if he starts)

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Sam Dekker (if he comes off the bench)

Miami Heat

The Heat have been short-handed for most of the season and that will continue tonight, as they will be without Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, and Josh McRoberts. I expect the Heat to be very active before the trade deadline and I wouldn’t be surprised if they give players like Goran Dragic and James Johnson some extra playing time to make them more attractive trade bait. Miami draws an excellent matchup for fantasy production, as the Rockets are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency this season. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 107 points, which is 8.7 points above their season average.

Patrick Beverley has the second highest DRPM of any point guard in the NBA, but Goran Dragic should be a usage monster tonight against his former team. Dragic is priced below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s the point guard of a team that is projected to score 8.7 points more than their season average. It’s hard not to like Dragic in this spot. Even if I set his matchup as the toughest in the slate, my projection model has him as a top-two point guard option in this slate. Dion Waiters is averaging 35 minutes and 25 fantasy points in his last two games. With Josh Richardson out, he should see minutes in the mid-30s against a defense that really struggles against shooting guards. Rodney McGruder and Wayne Ellington could both see around 30 minutes tonight, but neither is a particularly interesting play in DFS. James Johnson is averaging 31.3 minutes and 28.4 fantasy points in his last three games and should see a similar workload tonight against a Rockets’ defense that is ranked 28th against power forwards. Tyler Johnson is always on my radar in tournaments. His ownership is always lower than it should be, even though he sees as many minutes as most starters. Hassan Whiteside has been quiet since coming back from injury, but this is a blow-up spot for him. He should be able to dominate the paint on both ends of the floor, assuming he doesn’t get into foul trouble.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,700 $6,800 0.94 34.2 3.8 32.2 -2.2 29.1% -2.5% 17 1.85
Dion Waiters $5,200 $5,300 0.77 29.7 -1.8 22.9 -3.0 26.1% -0.1% 24 -1.54
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.50 26.1 2.5 13.1 0.1 11.9% -1.6% 10 1.16
Luke Babbitt $3,700 $3,200 0.53 15.6 9.3 8.3 7.2 13.8% -1.0% 29 -0.86
Hassan Whiteside $8,900 $8,400 1.17 33.8 -0.6 39.6 0.4 21.8% 0.9% 15 0.87
Tyler Johnson $6,400 $5,600 0.87 31.0 -0.2 27.1 2.8 21.7% -0.8% 17 N/A
James Johnson $5,900 $6,100 0.92 25.4 5.9 23.4 5.0 22.5% -2.8% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters (FD), James Johnson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters (DK), James Johnson (DK)

Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Brooklyn Nets
torontonba Vegas Total 227.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 227.0
Vegas Spread -11.5 Vegas Spread 11.5
Team Total 119.3 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- 5.8 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Lucas Nogueira Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Harris Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 29 30 27 30 Adj. DvP 10 14 14 24 8
DRPM -0.23 -3.42 -1.52 2.13 -0.34 DRPM 0.85 -1.85 0.92 3.20 -0.45

Toronto Raptors

These two teams met in Toronto on Friday night and will now face each other again tonight in Brooklyn. As most predicted, the Nets were unable to keep Friday’s game competitive, but they have struggled on the road all year. Seven of their eight wins have come at home, so we could see a closer game this time around. In terms of the actual matchup, there isn’t a better one than the Nets. On the season, they are ranked first in pace of play, 30th in points allowed per game, and 27th in rebounding differential. The Raptors come into the game with an implied total of 119.3 points, which is the highest in the slate and 8.0 points above their season average.

Everyone is going to see the score of the last meeting between these two teams and immediately want to avoid this game, but I think that could be a mistake. I generally don’t shy away from the favored team in potential blowouts unless the spread gets up to the 15 point range. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both have massive ceilings in this game, especially if they see a full complement of minutes. The Nets are ranked 30th against point guards and 29th against shooting guards this season. Lowry is an elite play on both sites, while DeRozan is more of a DraftKings play at a price of $8,500. DeMarre Carroll is averaging over 30 minutes and over 26 fantasy points in his last three games. He says that he is finally fully recovered from his knee injury and we are finally starting to see him play a full complement of minutes. He is about a thousand dollars too cheap on FanDuel ($4,600). Lucas Nogueira would become an elite value play if Patrick Patterson is unable to suit up. In four starts this season, he is averaging 33 minutes and 23 fantasy points per game. Jonas Valanciunas has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three straight games and has a good chance to keep that streak alive against a Nets’ team that is ranked 30th against centers and 27th in rebounding differential. Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross are intriguing punt plays in tournaments, especially if you expect this game to turn into a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $9,000 $8,600 1.08 37.2 -1.8 40.1 0.8 26.4% -2.7% 30 -0.23
DeMar DeRozan $9,400 $8,500 1.15 35.4 -3.5 40.9 2.4 34.3% 3.3% 29 -3.42
DeMarre Carroll $4,600 $5,200 0.69 26.5 3.7 18.3 8.3 15.7% 5.0% 30 -1.52
Lucas Nogueira $3,800 $4,100 0.80 21.0 8.0 16.7 5.1 9.5% -0.2% 27 2.13
Jonas Valanciunas $6,000 $6,200 0.97 26.8 -0.1 26.0 10.2 18.6% 6.7% 30 -0.34
Cory Joseph $3,900 $3,400 0.78 22.1 1.4 17.2 2.8 20.9% -3.1% 30 N/A
Patrick Patterson $3,800 $3,300 0.63 28.0 -7.4 17.7 -12.8 12.3% -2.8% 27 N/A
Terrence Ross $3,700 $3,600 0.77 21.7 3.2 16.7 -3.2 18.6% -5.6% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan (DK), DeMarre Carroll (FD), Jonas Valanciunas (FD), Lucas Nogueira (if Patterson is out)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), DeMarre Carroll (DK), Jonas Valanciunas (DK), Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets have lost each of their last ten games and have the worst record in the NBA. They will likely pick up another loss tonight, but at least they are playing at home where they have a 7-14 record on the season. They come into the game as 11.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 107.8 points. If the spread and total is any indication, the Nets should be able to have some success on the offensive end of the floor. The issue here is that their rotation has been tough to predict, which makes their players better GPP options than cash game plays. Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead continue to split minutes at point guard. For now, they can both be avoided until one starts playing close to 30 minutes a night. Trevor Booker grades out as a nice value at power forward, but his minutes have been all over the map recently. If I knew that he would play 30 minutes tonight, I would lock him into my power forward spot, but it’s hard to project him for more than 26-28 minutes. Brook Lopez is always too cheap on DraftKings and I will certainly have some shares of him tonight. There are very few centers that have as high of a usage rate as Lopez and the Nets will need a big game from him if they are going to stay competitive tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 $3,900 0.69 18.3 7.2 12.7 4.7 17.2% -4.8% 10 0.85
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,200 $4,900 0.75 26.6 -1.7 20.0 -2.8 21.2% 2.6% 14 -1.85
Joe Harris $3,600 $3,000 0.64 22.9 0.9 14.6 4.2 16.3% 0.4% 14 0.92
Trevor Booker $5,500 $5,400 0.97 27.3 0.3 26.6 1.2 17.3% 1.4% 24 3.20
Brook Lopez $7,000 $6,300 1.09 29.4 1.1 32.2 -0.3 27.6% 4.0% 8 -0.45
Sean Kilpatrick $4,000 $4,300 0.84 27.0 -3.1 22.6 -5.9 24.3% -2.9% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Booker, Sean Kilpatrick (FD)

Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Chicago Bulls
dallasnba Vegas Total 195.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 95.0 Team Total 100.5
Pace +/- -1.7 Pace +/- -5.4
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 11 13 20 9 Adj. DvP 2 9 3 11 18
DRPM 0.00 -0.15 1.33 1.89 -0.20 DRPM -1.56 -0.34 -0.06 -0.82 0.17

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are only three and a half games out of the playoffs in the Western Conference. And no, that is not a typo. The West basically has seven very good teams and eight below-average teams. Dallas draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Bulls in a game that has an over/under of only 195.5 points. On the season, Chicago is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Mavericks have an implied total of only 95 points, which is the second lowest in the slate. There aren’t any plays that really stand out on the Mavericks’ side of the ball. Deron Williams draws the best individual matchup, but there are better point guard options in this slate. Seth Curry is expected to draw another start at shooting guard, but we know how inconsistent he can be game to game. Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes draw difficult matchups against Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson. Dirk Nowitzki is my favorite play of the bunch. He is playing close to 30 minutes a game now and he should have a nice mis-match against Robin Lopez to start the game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,400 $5,900 0.86 30.4 1.8 26.3 6.5 27.5% -2.9% 25 0.00
Seth Curry $3,900 $3,900 0.69 26.3 2.3 18.2 -0.8 19.5% -3.6% 11 -0.15
Wesley Matthews $5,500 $5,000 0.67 35.7 1.1 24.0 -0.3 20.7% -3.1% 13 1.33
Harrison Barnes $6,800 $6,400 0.85 35.8 -1.8 30.5 0.5 25.4% 0.9% 20 1.89
Dirk Nowitzki $5,700 $6,100 0.95 24.8 5.0 23.5 9.4 26.0% -1.2% 9 -0.20
J.J. Barea $4,700 $3,500 25 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dirk Nowitzki, Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have won five of their last ten games and are one of the many teams in the Eastern Conference that is fighting for one of the last four playoffs spots. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 29th in pace of play of fourth in points allowed per game. Even though there are only five games in this slate, I probably won’t have a lot of exposure to this one in particular. The Bulls come into the game as 5.5-point favorites with an implied total of only 100.5 points, which is the third lowest in the slate.

There are too many bodies splitting minutes at point guard right now, which basically makes Michael Carter-Williams and Rajon Rondo unplayable. Rondo has the higher ceiling of the two, but unless he really plays well, he probably won’t see more than 20-22 minutes. Dwyane Wade draws a nice individual matchup against Seth Curry and it just so happens to be his birthday. If you like narratives and think the Bulls try to get Wade a few extra shot attempts on his birthday, he could certainly be worth a look tonight. The Mavericks have been tough on opposing small forwards this season, but Jimmy Butler is one of the few superstars in action tonight. He does seem overpriced for the matchup, but he’s still worth a look in all formats. The Bulls’ frontcourt situation is a lot like their point guard situation. With Nikola Mirotic back, they now have five bodies splitting the minutes of two positions. Even though Taj Gibson and Robin Lopez are cheap, they easy fades for me tonight in a game where both teams could play small.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,700 $4,500 0.80 22.1 1.8 17.8 1.9 23.4% -0.4% 2 -1.56
Dwyane Wade $7,000 $6,500 1.03 30.5 1.8 31.3 3.0 30.7% 6.2% 9 -0.34
Jimmy Butler $9,500 $9,100 1.15 36.7 1.9 42.1 5.0 29.5% -3.6% 3 -0.06
Taj Gibson $5,100 $5,700 0.87 27.7 2.2 24.1 4.5 19.3% 4.1% 11 -0.82
Robin Lopez $4,400 $4,200 0.77 28.2 0.9 21.6 3.7 15.8% 2.4% 18 0.17
Doug McDermott $4,000 $4,400 0.61 26.3 -3.0 16.1 6.1 16.9% 6.3% 3 N/A
Nikola Mirotic $4,200 $5,000 0.84 23.3 19.5 19.1% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves San Antonio Spurs
minnesotanba Vegas Total 200.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread 11.5 Vegas Spread -11.5
Team Total 94.3 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- -2.8 Pace +/- -2.1
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 25 4 3 2 Adj. DvP 11 3 5 4 17
DRPM -1.25 0.70 0.99 0.96 2.03 DRPM 1.51 -3.19 -2.25 2.93 -0.90

Minnesota Timberwolves

In yesterday’s Grind Down, I made the mistake of putting matchup ahead of pricing when I said that we should automatically avoid Eric Bledsoe against the Jazz. No matter the matchup, anyone can be a good play if their price is cheap enough. I bring that up because the Wolves draw one of the worst possible matchups tonight. On the season, the Spurs are ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of only 94.3 points, which is the lowest in the slate and 8.7 points below their season average. The difference between the Wolves tonight and the Suns from last night is that there aren’t any players that are vastly underpriced on FanDuel or DraftKings. The only potential play that I see here is Andrew Wiggins on DraftKings ($6,000), but it’s not enough of a discount that I would consider using him in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,000 $5,900 0.82 31.8 3.8 26.1 11.3 18.2% 3.6% 1 -1.25
Zach LaVine $6,000 $6,000 0.77 37.3 -3.6 28.8 -9.3 23.0% -8.6% 25 0.70
Andrew Wiggins $6,500 $6,000 0.82 36.9 0.4 30.4 2.0 27.6% -0.3% 4 0.99
Gorgui Dieng $5,100 $5,200 0.78 32.7 -2.7 25.4 -6.1 15.5% 0.5% 3 0.96
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,400 $9,300 1.18 35.7 1.8 42.1 6.9 27.3% -0.7% 2 2.03
Shabazz Muhammad $3,500 $3,200 0.63 18.1 3.5 11.4 1.3 18.7% -2.0% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Andrew Wiggins (DK)

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have won seven of their last ten games and have the second best record in the NBA. They come into tonight’s game against the Wolves as 11.5-point favorites with an implied total of 105.8 points. The main difference between the Spurs and the Raptors tonight is that Toronto has the much better matchup of the two. The blowout potential is the same for both of these games, but I’ll always side with the better matchup in a tiebreaker scenario. The Wolves have been much better defensively over the last few weeks and are now ranked 17th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Kawhi Leonard is really the only Spurs’ player that is on my radar in this one. Andrew Wiggins is often thought of as a shut-down defender, but he actually has a DRPM of -2.25 this season. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Leonard over Jimmy Butler if you are paying up at small forward. LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol are easy fades for me, as the Wolves have a good defensive frontcourt and are ranked fourth in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,700 $4,700 0.78 25.8 2.5 20.3 3.4 24.4% 0.1% 11 1.51
Danny Green $3,500 $3,300 0.62 25.8 0.4 15.9 -1.6 13.1% 0.9% 3 -3.19
Kawhi Leonard $8,800 $8,800 1.19 33.1 -1.6 39.5 6.8 29.2% 2.6% 5 -2.25
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,100 $6,600 0.96 32.2 -3.5 30.8 -10.5 23.3% -2.7% 4 2.93
Pau Gasol $6,400 $5,700 1.04 26.6 0.5 27.6 -0.4 21.0% -2.5% 17 -0.90
Patty Mills $3,500 $3,200 0.81 21.9 -5.8 17.7 -9.7 21.9% -0.2% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – NONE

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Los Angeles Lakers
denvernba Vegas Total 227.5 lalakersnba Vegas Total 227.5
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 112.8 Team Total 114.8
Pace +/- 1.6 Pace +/- 2.1
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 27 18 27 30 29 Adj. DvP 29 27 8 16 14
DRPM -0.66 -2.11 0.89 0.22 -0.16 DRPM -2.38 -0.41 -0.71 -0.66 1.41

Denver Nuggets

Even if we only had two games on the slate tonight, it would still be a fun one if this game was included. We have two of the fastest-paced and worst defensive teams in the NBA squaring off tonight in Los Angeles. The spread is set at a measly two points and the over/under for the game is set at a whopping 227.5 points. My main goal tonight is to get as much exposure as I can to this game, as it should be a goldmine for fantasy production. The Lakers are ranked 30th in points allowed per game this season and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets come into the game with an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 3.5 points above their season average.

Gary Harris is not expected to play tonight, after hurting his ankle in the first three minutes of yesterday’s game. It will be interesting to see if the Nuggets decide to start Jameer Nelson or Will Barton, but both are in play regardless. Harris was basically playing 30 minutes a game, which really opens the door for Nelson, Barton, and Emmanuel Mudiay. All three are borderline elite plays tonight, even though they all have some volatility to their game. The matchup against this Lakers’ backcourt is just too good to pass up. Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler should both see big minutes and both are viable plays in all formats. If I had to choose one, I’d give the edge to Gallinari since his minutes have been safer in the last couple of weeks. Everyone is going to want to play Kenneth Faried tonight after he put up 33 fantasy points against the Magic. If I have learned anything in DFS over the years, it is to never trust Faried in cash games. I love his upside for tournaments, but I have been burned by him enough times to know not to use him in cash games. Apologies to Joel Embiid, but Nikola Jokic is my favorite young player in the NBA. If you missed it, I wrote him a nice letter from the DFS community. He has scored at least 36 fantasy points in eight straight games and is an elite play in all formats tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $4,500 $4,900 0.78 29.0 -0.8 22.5 2.6 24.3% -3.0% 27 -0.66
Will Barton $4,800 $5,600 0.83 28.5 -3.1 23.7 0.1 21.5% 0.2% 18 -2.11
Danilo Gallinari $5,900 $6,000 0.78 34.1 1.2 26.8 -2.1 19.4% -0.3% 27 0.89
Kenneth Faried $4,300 $4,400 1.04 21.8 1.0 22.6 3.3 17.3% 0.5% 30 0.22
Nikola Jokic $8,500 $8,100 1.20 25.1 7.9 30.2 20.0 22.5% 4.3% 29 -0.16
Will Barton $4,800 $5,600 0.83 28.5 -3.1 23.7 0.1 21.5% 0.2% 18 N/A
Wilson Chandler $5,800 $6,700 0.92 30.9 -2.8 28.4 5.5 23.2% 2.5% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Jameer Nelson, Emmanuel Mudiay (FD), Will Barton (FD), Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay (DK), Will Barton (DK), Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried (Cash)

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have lost four games in a row and are now 15 games below .500 overall. While they don’t appear to be a playoff team this season, there is a lot to be excited about moving forward, especially if they can pick up another nice piece in this year’s draft. The Lakers draw a tremendous matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency this season. Denver is also playing in the second half of a back-to-back, which isn’t going to help their play on the defensive end of the floor. The Lakers have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 10.5 points above their season average.

D’Angelo Russell is close to a must play for me tonight on FanDuel. He is only $6,000 and he gets to face a Nuggets’ team that is ranked 29th against point guards this season. He should see minutes in the low-30s and he should easily reach value at his price point. Russell is fairly priced on DraftKings, but is still a borderline play given the matchup. Nick Young minutes have not been trending in the right direction and even though I like the matchup against Denver, I would rather go with Brandon Ingram, whose minutes are trending upward. In his last three games, he is averaging over 30 minutes per contest. Luol Deng is a viable small forward punt in all formats tonight, even though his recent form hasn’t been great. Lou Williams provides great upside at his price point and would see a massive boost if Jordan Clarkson is unable to suit up. The final play of the night is Julius Randle, who is averaging a fantasy point per minute this season. He should play 30+ minutes in the highest scoring game of the night.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $6,000 $7,000 0.99 27.4 -0.5 27.2 -6.0 29.4% -1.0% 29 -2.38
Nick Young $3,700 $3,700 0.71 26.2 -3.2 18.6 -5.2 18.5% -3.6% 27 -0.41
Luol Deng $4,200 $4,200 0.70 27.6 0.2 19.3 -8.2 14.9% -4.9% 8 -0.71
Julius Randle $6,200 $7,200 1.00 29.5 1.4 29.5 -6.5 23.4% -5.2% 16 -0.66
Timofey Mozgov $3,500 $3,000 0.72 21.3 -3.7 15.3 -4.1 16.7% 2.1% 14 1.41
Lou Williams $4,600 $4,300 1.05 24.1 -1.9 25.2 -3.4 30.6% -1.2% 27 N/A
Jordan Clarkson $4,200 $4,100 0.79 27.1 -2.0 21.4 1.2 23.6% 1.7% 29 N/A
Brandon Ingram $4,000 $3,600 0.59 27.7 2.8 16.3 3.2 16.0% -1.1% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle

Secondary Plays – Luol Deng, Lou Williams

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious