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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-22 02:03:09

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Toronto Raptors
chicagonba Vegas Total 200.0 torontonba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 96.8 Team Total 103.3
Pace +/- -1.5 Pace +/- -1.4
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Jimmy Butler Paul Zipser Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 11 5 4 11 8 Adj. DvP 29 14 15 17 5
DRPM -2.41 -2.19 1.22 0.91 0.40 DRPM -0.19 2.15 -0.26 1.18 0.23

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls would not make the playoffs if the season ended today, but they are only a game and a half out with 12 left to play. After spending big money to acquire Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo, it would be a huge disappointment to miss the postseason. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who have relied on their defense since Kyle Lowry went down. At the time, Toronto was a mediocre defensive team and they are now ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Bulls have an implied total of only 96.8 points, which is the lowest in the slate and 5.1 points below their season average.

After two big games against the Hornets and Grizzlies, Rajon Rondo has scored a combined 34 fantasy points in his last two outings. His consistency is a concern for cash games, but he’s priced under $6,000 on both main sites and he possesses 40+ fantasy point upside. Cory Joseph is not a good defender, as he has one of the worst DRPM’s (-2.41) of any point guard in the league. I will be going back to the Rondo well in tournaments tonight. Jimmy Butler has a 33% usage rate with Dwyane Wade off the floor this season. Even though his matchup against the Raptors is less than ideal, Butler is a borderline elite play at $8,900 on FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s been nearly three weeks and I still can’t get the Bulls’ power forward situation right. Rather than pulling my hair out (there is only so much left to pull out), I will be avoiding both Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis in cash games. Mirotic has shown great upside recently though, so I will get some exposure to him in tournaments. Robin Lopez is an intriguing punt play on DraftKings. He has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $5,400 $5,700 0.89 26.1 2.6 23.3 2.6 22.6% -0.8% 11 -2.41
Jimmy Butler $8,900 $8,900 1.12 36.7 0.5 41.0 -2.6 28.6% -3.4% 5 -2.19
Paul Zipser $3,500 $3,100 0.53 16.7 2.7 8.9 2.6 14.1% -0.2% 4 1.22
Nikola Mirotic $4,400 $4,600 0.84 22.9 3.5 19.1 7.7 19.3% 3.7% 11 0.91
Robin Lopez $5,000 $4,100 0.78 28.0 0.4 21.9 2.2 17.1% 0.0% 8 0.40
Bobby Portis $4,000 $3,900 0.82 14.6 7.1 12.0 6.8 18.6% 2.6% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo (GPP), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (Cash), Nikola Mirotic (Cash)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have managed to keep their heads above water without Kyle Lowry. They appear to be locked into one of the top four seeds in the Eastern Conference, which would give them home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Their matchup tonight against the Bulls doesn’t look great on paper, as Chicago is ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Raptors have an implied total of only 103.3 points, which is the sixth lowest in the slate and 3.7 points below their season average.

Cory Joseph doesn’t have the same upside that Kyle Lowry does, but he has filled in nicely at point guard. He should play 30-32 minutes against a Bulls’ team that is ranked 29th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Joseph offers a high floor if you want to look his way in cash games. I see him as more of a secondary play tonight, even though the matchup is elite. DeMar DeRozan continues to struggle offensively, but his price is all the way down to $7,700 on DraftKings. The issue here is the matchup. He will likely see the defense of Jimmy Butler, who has a DRPM of 2.15 this season. Serge Ibaka has been in a major slump, averaging less than 20 fantasy points in his last five games. Jonas Valanciunas continues to sit during most fourth quarters and it’s hard to rely on him playing more than 22-24 minutes a night. Basically, the Raptors are full of secondary options tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,000 $5,000 0.73 24.3 4.6 17.8 3.0 20.4% -0.8% 29 -0.19
DeMar DeRozan $8,600 $7,700 1.11 35.2 -4.2 38.9 -9.5 33.9% -3.9% 14 2.15
DeMarre Carroll $4,100 $3,800 0.67 27.0 -8.0 18.1 -1.9 15.1% 2.6% 15 -0.26
Serge Ibaka $5,700 $5,700 0.89 30.8 -1.7 27.6 -8.8 20.3% -1.4% 17 1.18
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $5,000 0.99 26.0 -4.3 25.7 -1.6 19.0% -0.1% 5 0.23
Norman Powell $3,900 $3,700 0.75 18.1 6.1 13.6 4.2 20.5% 3.6% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cory Joseph, DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Miami Heat
phoenixnba Vegas Total 215.5 miaminba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Team Total 101.8 Team Total 113.8
Pace +/- -1.3 Pace +/- 3.7
Proj. Starter Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Josh Richardson Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 1 5 5 7 Adj. DvP 26 19 10 26 26
DRPM -1.75 -1.05 0.21 1.75 2.15 DRPM -0.92 -2.30 -2.75 -1.23 1.19

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have nothing to play for at this point of the season. They are giving their young players as many minutes as possible, both to develop their talent and to see what their options are heading into next season. They come into tonight’s game as 12-point underdogs against the Heat, who are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. We have conflicting trends here, as the matchup is tough, but we can expect a few of the Suns’ players to play 35+ minutes. The deciding factor for me is their low implied total of 101.8 points. The Suns have the second worst projected point differential in the slate.

Tyler Ulis has played at least 39 minutes in each of his last three games. There is no reason for that to change tonight and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. The sites have been quick to adjust salaries this season, but $6,400 for a starting point guard that is basically guaranteed 35+ minutes is awfully intriguing. His price on DraftKings makes him a borderline fade. Devin Booker is expected to return to the lineup tonight and he should step right back into his 18+ shot attempt role at shooting guard. Booker will likely go under-owned tonight because people are hesitant to target players coming off of injuries. T.J. Warren’s price is basically at a season high. He still has some tournament appeal, but there are safer targets for cash games. Marquese Chriss and Alan Williams are also on my radar in tournaments. The best part about the Suns is that their young players will see big minutes regardless of the game’s outcome.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ulis $6,400 $7,300 0.83 13.3 20.7 11.1 21.0 23.9% -1.8% 9 -1.75
Devin Booker $6,700 $7,000 0.83 34.6 1.6 28.7 3.1 27.6% 1.9% 1 -1.05
T.J. Warren $6,500 $7,200 0.78 30.4 7.7 23.7 9.5 18.5% -1.0% 5 0.21
Marquese Chriss $4,900 $5,600 0.80 20.2 6.1 16.2 9.7 18.5% 0.8% 5 1.75
Alex Len $4,600 $4,000 0.92 19.8 2.4 18.3 5.0 16.7% 4.7% 7 2.15
Alan Williams $5,700 $5,900 1.19 13.7 11.3 16.3 11.3 20.4% 0.0% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Ulis (FD), Devin Booker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tyler Ulis (DK), Devin Booker (Cash), T.J. Warren (GPP), Alan Williams (GPP)

Miami Heat

The Heat have been battling back into playoff contention for the last six weeks. During that stretch, they have had one of the best records in the entire NBA. I’m really hoping that they can sneak in as the eighth seed and give the Cavaliers all that they can handle in the first round. Tonight the Heat host the visiting Suns, who are always one of the top matchups for fantasy production. On the season, Phoenix is ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. Even though the Heat are double-digit favorites, the upside is big enough that I’m willing to overlook the potential blowout. The Heat have the highest projected point differential (+10.9) in the slate.

With Dion Waiters out of the lineups, the minutes for Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, and Josh Richardson should be secure. Of the three, Dragic would be the first on the bench in a blowout, but he should see close to 30 minutes even if the game gets out of hand. Dragic also has the revenge narrative in his corner. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his last three games against his former team. Johnson should get close to 30 minutes off the bench with the potential for some garbage time production. He actually grades out as a top five point guard target in my model tonight. Richardson will draw another start at shooting guard. While he didn’t play well the other night, he should play 30+ minutes against the Suns and he is priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I will be giving Richardson another shot in cash games and tournaments. James Johnson had a massive outing against the Blazers. He may not have elite minute upside, but 28-30 minutes against the Suns is more than enough time for him to reach and exceed value. Hassan Whiteside is averaging 42 fantasy points over his last five games and gets to face a Suns’ defense that is ranked 26th in adjusted DvP against centers. I plan to pound the Heat tonight and will be hoping the Suns can keep the game with 10-15 points.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $8,200 $8,100 1.01 33.5 -3.5 33.9 2.1 29.3% 3.5% 26 -0.92
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,200 0.54 25.1 -4.9 13.6 -1.6 12.5% 1.3% 19 -2.75
Josh Richardson $4,600 $4,800 0.65 28.8 -1.0 18.7 -1.2 18.1% -4.7% 10
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.7 0.8 8.7 -1.4 13.0% -2.1% 26 -1.23
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 $8,500 1.18 32.8 0.3 38.6 3.8 20.9% 0.0% 26 1.19
James Johnson $6,400 $6,300 0.95 26.7 1.8 25.3 3.8 23.3% 0.6% 26 N/A
Tyler Johnson $5,700 $5,600 0.86 30.1 -1.5 26.0 -3.2 22.0% 1.4% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (GPP), Tyler Johnson (GPP), Josh Richardson, James Johnson

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (Cash), Hassan Whiteside (Cash), Tyler Johnson (Cash)

Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Brooklyn Nets
detroitnba Vegas Total 214.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread -5.5 Vegas Spread 5.5
Team Total 109.8 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- 4.7 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Spencer Dinwiddie Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 29 30 29 25 Adj. DvP 22 3 19 12 4
DRPM -0.08 -1.83 -1.16 0.93 0.17 DRPM -2.73 -0.33 0.75 -0.65 1.42

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games and are now tied with the Heat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They will likely need to pick up a win tonight to keep pace, as the Heat should be able to take care of business against the Suns. Much like Miami, Detroit has a massive implied total. They draw an excellent matchup against the Nets, who are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 8.1 points above their season average.

Is there a more frustrating player in DFS than Reggie Jackson? There are a few other names that are in contention, but R-Jax seems to love playing the DFS villain. I have no idea what to expect from him tonight, but he has been playing 28-30 minutes in competitive games recently and he gets to face the Nets. Not only are the Nets a fast-paced, turnover-prone team, but they are also ranked dead last in adjusted DvP against point guards. I’m not going to say that you should play Jackson in cash games, but you should certainly get some exposure to him in tournaments. You can even stagger lineups with Jackson and Ish Smith because we know that one or the other will have a big outing tonight. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is too expensive on DraftKings, but sticks out as a great value on FanDuel. Marcus Morris has been in a slump over his last five games, but the Nets are a cure for the fantasy production blues. Stan Van Gundy said that Tobias Harris will start at power forward for the rest of the season. I will gladly pay $5,400 for a starting power forward that will play 30+ minutes against the Nets. Brook Lopez has held Andre Drummond under 26 fantasy points in each of their last two meetings. Drummond still has massive upside, but Lopez typically draws centers away from the basket. I would rather go after Drummond in a tournament and look elsewhere in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,000 $5,700 0.90 27.8 -3.1 24.9 -2.1 29.6% 3.1% 30 -0.08
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,600 0.71 33.8 -2.9 23.9 -2.7 19.5% 0.1% 29 -1.83
Marcus Morris $5,300 $5,400 0.73 33.0 -0.5 24.0 -6.8 20.1% -2.9% 30 -1.16
Tobias Harris $5,400 $6,000 0.83 31.5 -0.4 26.0 -0.1 21.5% -0.9% 29 0.93
Andre Drummond $7,800 $7,900 1.19 30.3 -2.1 36.2 -2.5 22.2% -1.6% 25 0.17
Ish Smith $4,300 $4,200 0.87 23.3 -1.4 20.2 -2.2 23.4% 5.0% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Tobias Harris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (Cash), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Tobias Harris (DK), Marcus Morris, Andre Drummond (GPP)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets will be playing short-handed tonight, as Jeremy Lin, Sean Kilpatrick, and Joe Harris are all expected to miss the game. You may notice that they are all guards, which could open up some value in the backcourt. Brooklyn’s matchup against the Pistons isn’t ideal though, as Detroit is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Surprisingly, despite the tough matchup, the Nets have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is right around the average of the 16 teams in action tonight.

Spencer Dinwiddie is not a productive player on a per-minute basis. On the season, he averages 0.69 fantasy points per minute, which is below average. While that’s not ideal, he should see 28-30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Reggie Jackson. Dinwiddie is close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and makes a viable punt play in all formats. Randy Foye will likely play 25+ minutes tonight, but I have yet to click his name this season and I don’t plan to start tonight. Caris LeVert is averaging 21 fantasy points in his last five games and could see a small minutes bump tonight. The Nets refuse to play Rondae Hollis-Jefferson more than 24 minutes a night, but the price is cheap enough that we can give him a look. Brook Lopez loves facing Andre Drummond, who can’t defend him on the perimeter. In his last four games against Detroit, Lopez is averaging 44 fantasy points (FD scoring). At $6,500 on DraftKings, Lopez is a strong play in all formats tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Spencer Dinwiddie $3,500 $3,800 0.69 22.5 4.2 15.5 2.3 16.2% -1.5% 22 -2.73
Randy Foye $3,600 $3,000 0.60 19.1 5.4 11.4 4.5 16.4% -0.4% 3 -0.33
Caris LeVert $4,300 $3,900 0.73 21.2 3.8 15.4 5.8 16.2% -1.5% 19 0.75
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,500 $4,400 0.87 21.9 2.2 19.0 4.0 18.6% -1.1% 12 -0.65
Brook Lopez $7,100 $6,500 1.09 29.7 0.7 32.4 1.4 28.2% 2.1% 4 1.42
Trevor Booker $5,100 $5,000 0.95 25.8 -4.6 24.6 -8.3 18.4% 5.9% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie, Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD), Caris LeVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies New Orleans Pelicans
memphisnba Vegas Total 207.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- -3.5
Proj. Starter Mike Conley James Ennis Vince Carter JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Tim Frazier Jrue Holiday Solomon Hill DeMarcus Cousins Anthony Davis
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 15 7 16 13 Adj. DvP 12 22 11 2 1
DRPM -2.12 0.96 1.28 0.45 3.27 DRPM -0.98 1.40 -0.49 0.48 0.82

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have won four games in a row and are now only a game and a half behind the Clippers for fifth place in the West. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 17th in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. Even though this game will be played at a slow pace, the Grizzlies have an implied total of 102.5 points, which is slightly above their season average.

The two players that everyone will be keying in on here are Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. However, I’m not particularly interested in either player. Jrue Holiday is an underrated defender (DRPM of 0.96) and Conley’s price is all the way up to $8,200 on FanDuel. Gasol has only averaged 33.5 fantasy points (FD scoring) in his last four meetings with DeMarcus Cousins. Gasol’s price is also up across the industry. Oddly enough, my favorite play here will likely be sub-10% owned tonight. With the Pelicans having such a big frontcourt, Zach Randolph will likely see minutes in the high 20s. His price is down on both sites and he averages 1.08 fantasy points per minute this season. I don’t like making predictions, but I will go out on a limb and predict 30+ fantasy points from Randolph tonight. Vince Carter is also worth a look if you are scavenging the slate for value. With Chandler Parsons and Tony Allen both out, he could see close to 30 minutes tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $8,200 $7,600 1.05 33.3 1.4 35.0 5.5 29.3% -0.9% 24 -2.12
James Ennis $3,500 $3,000 0.59 23.3 -5.8 13.7 -4.7 13.2% 0.2% 15 0.96
Vince Carter $3,700 $3,800 0.68 24.0 3.8 16.4 3.2 15.6% -2.0% 7 1.28
JaMychal Green $4,200 $4,200 0.74 28.0 -3.5 20.7 3.3 14.2% 2.4% 16 0.45
Marc Gasol $7,900 $7,500 1.06 34.5 0.8 36.7 -2.3 27.9% -3.4% 13 3.27
Zach Randolph $5,500 $5,100 1.08 24.1 -2.3 26.1 -6.3 28.6% -0.1% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Zach Randolph

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (DK), Marc Gasol (DK), Vince Carter

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have won two games in a row and six of their last ten. They aren’t going to make the playoffs this season, but they are at least giving their fans some hope for the future. They draw an awful matchup for fantasy production, as they host the visiting Grizzlies. On the season, Memphis is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Strangely enough, the Pelicans’ implied total is higher than their season average. I tend to trust Vegas in these situations and the masses are going to be off of the Pelicans thanks to the matchup alone.

Tim Frazier is expected to draw another start tonight. He and Jrue Holiday will likely split point guard duties while on the floor. While I love Frazier’s per-minute production and his price point, I’m not expecting more than 20-24 minutes of action. I have a small amount of interest as a deep tournament play, but prefer Spencer Dinwiddie at the same price point. Jrue Holiday’s usage continues to trend in the wrong direction. Even at $6,600 on DraftKings, I’m going to be fading Holiday in all formats. Solomon Hill has stolen Scottie Pippen’s talents the last two games, filling up all areas of the stat sheet. I’m not buying into the form, as we weren’t playing him at minimum salary two weeks ago. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins could both see minutes in the upper 30s tonight. I slightly prefer Davis over Cousins, but will have some exposure to both in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tim Frazier $3,900 $4,000 0.81 23.2 -3.8 18.7 -0.1 21.1% -2.5% 12 -0.98
Jrue Holiday $7,300 $6,600 1.00 32.6 0.2 32.7 0.1 27.2% -2.8% 22 1.40
Solomon Hill $4,300 $4,200 0.54 29.1 5.3 15.8 10.5 11.6% 3.4% 11 -0.49
DeMarcus Cousins $8,800 $9,300 1.41 34.0 -4.9 48.0 -15.2 35.3% -2.4% 2 0.48
Anthony Davis $10,900 $10,000 1.38 36.1 0.3 49.8 2.4 30.5% -1.5% 1 0.82
Jordan Crawford $3,600 $4,100 0.93 22.5 -0.4 20.9 -0.7 23.6% 0.8% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Tim Frazier (GPP)

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Dallas Mavericks
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 207.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 101.3
Pace +/- -4.8 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Patrick McCaw Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 8 3 15 6 Adj. DvP 13 11 8 24 14
DRPM -1.21 -0.19 0.55 -0.12 1.28 DRPM -0.08 -0.91 -1.86 5.01 4.15

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors smashed the Thunder last night. Even though the starters didn’t have to play a full complement of minutes, that was a game where the team got up for it mentally and had to face a playoff-like atmosphere in the first three quarters. Letdown spots are hard to predict, but this feels like one and Vegas seems to agree with me. The Warriors are only listed as 4.5-point favorites against the slow-paced Mavericks. Golden State has an implied total of only 105.8 points and they have the lowest projected point differential (-10.6) in the slate. Add in the fact that this is the third game in four nights and I’m a little concerned.

Andre Iguodala has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. While the Warriors want to hold on to that one seed in the Western Conference, I wouldn’t be surprised if they decided to rest another player or two tonight. If that happens, the other members of the remaining big three would become viable options. However, if Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all active, I don’t have a ton of interest in any of them. Curry is overpriced and Thompson doesn’t shoot well on the road. Green would be my favorite play of the group, as the Mavericks do have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,900 $9,200 1.21 33.5 -2.1 40.5 -0.3 30.9% 1.6% 1 -1.21
Klay Thompson $7,000 $7,000 0.89 34.2 -0.9 30.5 6.2 24.4% 2.3% 8 -0.19
Patrick McCaw $3,500 $3,300 0.51 14.6 7.6 7.5 1.1 12.5% -2.5% 3 0.55
Draymond Green $8,100 $7,800 1.09 32.9 -3.1 35.7 1.3 19.1% 2.3% 15 -0.12
Zaza Pachulia $4,300 $4,100 1.01 18.5 -2.4 18.6 -0.1 15.8% 8.1% 6 1.28
Andre Iguodala $4,900 $4,600 0.73 26.3 0.8 19.1 4.6 12.6% 4.0% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson (GPP), Draymond Green

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have won six of their last ten games, but they haven’t gained any ground on the Nuggets. They are still two and a half games behind with 13 to play. For Dallas to have a realistic shot, they will need to go 10-3 at the very least. A win over the Warriors tonight could really boost their confidence. We generally don’t like to target the Mavericks very often, but they are playing in a pace-up game against a Warriors team that is playing their third game in four nights and in the second half of a back-to-back. The Mavericks have the fourth highest projected point differential (+3.2) in the slate.

Yogi Ferrell has a good game every now and then, but there are better value options at point guard. One of those better values is on the same team. J.J. Barea has played extremely well off the bench and is coming off of a game where he played 27 minutes. Even if he sees 22-25 minutes tonight, he should be able to pay off his $4,100 price tag on DraftKings. Seth Curry’s fantasy production has fallen off a cliff recently. While he does get to face his brother, the recent form outweighs the narrative. Wesley Matthews is an intriguing buy low candidate. Eventually, he will get back to play 35 minutes a night and he is only $4,500 on FanDuel. I love buying low on players and this looks like a great spot to do so with Matthews. Harrison Barnes has the revenge factor in his corner tonight, as he gets to face his former team. Barnes is also a borderline elite play on FanDuel at a price of only $5,800. This could be a night to target the old power forwards. I already talked about my love for Zach Randolph and Dirk Nowitzki is in a similar situation. He could play upwards of 30 minutes in a pace-up game against the Warriors.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $4,500 $4,400 0.71 26.0 -0.5 18.5 -0.5 21.3% -2.5% 13 -0.08
Seth Curry $5,300 $5,200 0.73 29.0 0.2 21.2 -8.3 20.1% -2.9% 11 -0.91
Wesley Matthews $4,500 $5,000 0.69 34.6 -6.4 23.7 -8.7 19.9% -2.3% 8 -1.86
Harrison Barnes $5,800 $6,300 0.81 35.7 -1.3 29.0 -2.7 24.5% -2.2% 24 5.01
Dirk Nowitzki $6,000 $6,200 1.00 26.4 1.2 26.3 2.6 24.4% 1.3% 14 4.15
J.J. Barea $4,900 $4,100 0.93 23.1 -3.8 21.5 -1.0 28.9% 2.5% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Wesley Matthews (FD), Harrison Barnes (FD), J.J. Barea (DK)

Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews (DK), Harrison Barnes (DK), Dirk Nowitzki

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious