NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 27th

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Washington Wizards
sanantonionba Vegas Total 202.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Implied Team Total 102.0 Implied Team Total 100.0
Pace Projection +/- -0.7 Pace Projection +/- -2.3
Projected Starters Dejounte Murray Patty Mills Danny Green Kyle Anderson LaMarcus Aldridge Projected Starters Tomas Satoransky Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 15 19 3 6 DvP 3 2 6 1 4
DRPM Rat. 7 14 2 20 9 DRPM Rat. 1 27 1 1 8

San Antonio Spurs

We have eight games on tap tonight and we start with the one that may have the least amount of fantasy appeal. The Spurs and Wizards projects to be one of the slowest-paced games of the slate and the total is set at a measly 202 points. The Wizards aren’t an elite defensive team, but they are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Spurs’ implied total of 102 points is the third lowest on the board.

Dejounte Murray has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last four games. While I want to believe that this is a trend, how many times are we going to get fooled by Greg Popovich. At all times, Murray is one bad play away from getting benched. He’s viable in large-field tournaments, but there are better cash game targets available tonight. Patty Mills and Danny Green would be decent value plays in a smaller slate, but they don’t stand out as must haves with seven other games on the schedule.

Kyle Anderson minutes are trending in the wrong direction and Rudy Gay isn’t seeing 20+ minutes consistent enough to trust as an option in DFS. LaMarcus Aldridge has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 57 fantasy points per contest. The problem is that we now have to pay a premium for Aldridge on the road in a game where the Spurs have a low team total. I’d rather take a shot on Pau Gasol, who finally broke out of his slump with a 39 fantasy point outing against the Bucks on Sunday.

Notable Injuries

Kawhi Leonard (Out)

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 102.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 (10 of 16)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Dejounte Murray $5,900 $5,300 21.6 4.1 21.0 8.1 1.03 19.2% 11 14 7
Patty Mills $4,300 $4,600 16.9 4.1 25.0 8.7 0.68 17.3% 6 15 14
Danny Green $4,900 $4,400 20.8 -0.6 25.9 3.0 0.80 14.9% 13 19 2
Kyle Anderson $5,300 $4,700 24.3 -3.8 26.9 -3.8 0.90 13.1% 20 3 20
LaMarcus Aldridge $9,300 $9,200 40.0 16.8 33.5 1.3 1.19 26.5% 9 6 9
Pau Gasol $4,700 $4,900 27.7 -3.0 24.0 -5.5 1.16 19.3% N/A N/A N/A
Rudy Gay $4,000 $4,400 22.1 0.8 21.5 -2.4 1.03 21.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray (GPP), Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol (GPP)


Washington Wizards

The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and appear to be heading for one of the bottom three seeds in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The name of the game at this point is to avoid taking the eight-seed in order to avoid a first-round matchup with the Raptors. They draw the worst matchup of the slate tonight, as they take on a Spurs’ team that is ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have an implied total of 100 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.

Washington is basically a full fade for me tonight. If you are a fan of Bradley Beal and his price point on FanDuel ($7,700) or DraftKings ($7,400), I’m certainly not going to talk you off of the play. With that said, his current form hasn’t been great and the Spurs are ranked first in efficiency against shooting guards this season (maybe I am going to talk you out of the play after all). The rest of the Wizards can be avoided, as the Spurs are ranked sixth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor.

Notable Injuries

John Wall (Out)

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 107.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -7.0 (15 of 16)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Tomas Satoransky $6,200 $5,500 18.2 7.6 21.7 11.2 0.84 14.8% 13 3 1
Bradley Beal $7,700 $7,400 37.8 -2.8 36.5 1.2 1.04 25.9% 1 2 27
Otto Porter $7,200 $6,500 31.2 -0.1 32.1 2.1 0.97 17.3% 7 6 1
Markieff Morris $5,800 $5,600 23.5 3.0 27.4 6.3 0.86 16.6% 4 1 1
Marcin Gortat $4,100 $4,500 23.1 -0.6 25.3 -3.1 0.91 14.0% 4 4 8
Kelly Oubre $5,200 $4,900 22.2 5.1 27.5 -1.2 0.81 17.1% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Toronto Raptors
denvernba Vegas Total 226.0 torontonba Vegas Total 226.0
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Implied Team Total 108.8 Implied Team Total 117.3
Pace Projection +/- 0.6 Pace Projection +/- -0.2
Projected Starters Jamal Murray Will Barton Wilson Chandler Paul Millsap Nikola Jokic Projected Starters Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan OG Anunoby Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 3 5 8 19 DvP 26 5 18 25 18
DRPM Rat. 3 24 5 13 18 DRPM Rat. 27 26 22 3 11

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets really needed a win last night, but ultimately fell short against the red-hot Sixers. Luckily, Minnesota also lost, so Denver is still only a game and a half out of the eighth seed in the Western Conference. A matchup against the Raptors doesn’t look great on paper, but this game has shootout potential. The spread is set at 8.5 points and the total is massive at 226 points. In a must-win game for the Nuggets, I’m expecting a better performance tonight and we should be able to target them at low ownership.

With every game so important and with Gary Harris out, the Nuggets have tightened their rotation significantly. Jamal Murray and Will Barton could both push for close to 40 minutes if tonight’s game stays close. If comparing the matchups, Barton certainly has the edge over Murray, as he’ll get to square off against DeMar DeRozan. Wilson Chandler will play minutes in the mid to upper-30s. While he has a low usage rate, he can fill up the stat sheet. He provides a high floor for cash games. Devin Harris has played well off the bench if you are looking for a cheap tournament play on DraftKings ($3,800).

Paul Millsap hasn’t been in the best of form recently, yet he has still averaged 31 fantasy points over his last five games. His minutes are trending upward and his price continues to drop. At $5,700 on DraftKings, he is one of my favorite point-per-dollar targets at any position. Nikola Jokic struggled to get going last night, but that’s a common theme for centers facing Joel Embiid. I’m a bigger fan of tonight’s matchup against Jonas Valanciunas and the Raptors, who are ranked 19th in DvP against centers. Jokic should play 35+ minutes at a discounted price point. The best part is that his ownership should be fairly low in all formats.

Notable Injuries

Devin Harris (Probable)
Gary Harris (Out)

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (11 of 16)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jamal Murray $7,900 $6,600 $12,300 27.6 8.7 30.9 5.1 0.89 21.4% 7 9 3
Will Barton $7,100 $7,000 $13,500 30.8 5.3 32.6 3.0 0.95 19.9% 14 3 24
Wilson Chandler $5,600 $5,200 $10,000 22.0 6.6 31.5 5.2 0.70 13.7% 1 5 5
Paul Millsap $6,800 $5,700 $11,200 30.4 0.5 28.9 2.7 1.05 19.6% 7 8 13
Nikola Jokic $9,800 $8,800 $16,700 41.8 1.3 31.7 3.2 1.32 22.1% 10 19 18
Mason Plumlee $3,900 $3,600 $6,700 20.8 -4.8 20.2 -3.1 1.03 14.7% N/A N/A N/A
Devin Harris $4,100 $3,800 $7,400 15.3 5.8 18.6 6.8 0.82 18.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Will Barton, Paul Millsap (DK), Nikola Jokic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap (FD), Nikola Jokic (FD), Jamal Murray, Wilson Chandler


Toronto Raptors

The Raptors haven’t quite locked up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, so we can expect their starters to play a full complement of minutes over the next few games. Once they have home-court advantage locked up, we will start to see them rest their starters. Tonight’s matchup against the Nuggets is one of the best on the board. Denver is ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They are also playing their second road game in as many nights. The Raptors’ implied total of 117.3 points is the highest on the board.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are two players that go consistently under-owned in DFS. The biggest reason is that they often seem overpriced because Toronto is involved in so many blowouts that it ends up hurting their fantasy production. As mentioned earlier, I expect this game to stay close throughout, so we could see Lowry and DeRozan both crack the 35-minute mark. They are excellent tournament plays tonight, especially if you are looking to stack this game as a whole.

Fred VanVleet continues to be the best producer off the Raptors bench. In his last five games, he has averaged 28 minutes and 27 fantasy points. He’s viable in tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings, especially if you disagree with my take that this game is going to stay close. Serge Ibaka has an appealing price point on DraftKings ($4,700), but the Nuggets are much better against power forwards when Paul Millsap is in the lineup. I rarely target centers against the Nuggets, especially ones that are priced at a premium like Jonas Valanciunas.

Notable Injuries

None

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.3 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (3 of 16)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (15 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,300 $8,200 $15,500 35.2 5.2 32.3 1.9 1.09 21.8% 27 26 27
DeMar DeRozan $8,000 $7,600 $13,700 37.4 -9.4 34.1 -0.2 1.10 28.5% 11 5 26
OG Anunoby $3,500 $3,200 $6,200 12.1 -3.6 20.0 -5.2 0.60 10.7% 15 18 22
Serge Ibaka $5,300 $4,900 $10,100 24.7 -3.5 27.5 0.7 0.90 16.9% 24 25 3
Jonas Valanciunas $7,000 $6,600 $12,300 27.1 -0.5 22.5 -1.9 1.20 18.9% 13 18 11
Fred VanVleet $5,000 $4,800 $9,200 19.0 8.4 20.1 7.7 0.94 19.6% N/A N/A N/A
Jakob Poeltl $4,300 $3,700 $7,700 17.4 0.0 18.3 -1.2 0.95 12.3% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Fred VanVleet (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Fred VanVleet (Cash)


Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers New Orleans Pelicans
portlandnba Vegas Total 222.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Implied Team Total 110.5 Implied Team Total 111.5
Pace Projection +/- 3.1 Pace Projection +/- -0.8
Projected Starters Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Jusuf Nurkic Projected Starters Rajon Rondo Jrue Holiday E’Twaun Moore Anthony Davis Emeka Okafor
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 27 22 19 16 DvP 2 7 15 12 5
DRPM Rat. 20 2 30 1 16 DRPM Rat. 13 24 17 4 1

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have won eight of their last ten games and only need a few more wins to lock up the three seed in the Western Conference. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked third in pace of play, 29th in points allowed per game, and 21st in rebounding differential. Despite playing on the road, the Blazers have the seventh highest implied total (110.5 points) and the fourth best projected point differential (+4.5) of any team on the schedule.

Damian Lillard is going to get overlooked in all formats tonight thanks to how much ownership Chris Paul is going to soak up. Don’t get me wrong, I love CP3 tonight as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t play both. Lillard is affordable, he has an elite matchup, and he has an elite usage rate. C.J. McCollum is a player that I never seem to be on the right side of. This matchup sets up well for him, as the Pelicans are ranked 27th in both efficiency and DvP against shooting guards this season.

Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu have both played well recently, averaging 27 and 29 fantasy points respectively, over their last five games. The problem is that they are now priced at a premium and consistency isn’t necessarily their strong suit. Jusuf Nurkic is finally playing minutes in the upper-20s on a regular basis. I expect that trend to continue as we head into the playoffs. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate and for those of you risk-tolerant individuals out there, you can even consider him in cash games.

Notable Injuries

None

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (4 of 16)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (3 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,000 $9,400 $17,000 42.9 -1.8 36.5 -0.2 1.18 29.2% 16 19 20
C.J. McCollum $7,300 $7,500 $13,700 33.4 1.8 36.0 -0.4 0.93 24.8% 27 27 2
Maurice Harkless $4,700 $4,400 $9,300 14.9 12.3 21.4 7.7 0.70 11.6% 17 22 30
Al-Farouq Aminu $6,500 $5,900 $11,200 24.4 14.1 30.0 2.7 0.81 13.2% 24 19 1
Jusuf Nurkic $6,900 $6,700 $12,100 31.2 7.0 26.1 1.2 1.20 22.8% 16 16 16
Ed Davis $3,600 $3,700 $7,500 17.8 -7.1 19.0 -1.4 0.93 10.5% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum


New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have lost five of their last ten games and are now tied with the Thunder and Spurs with 31 losses on the season. Depending on how the last few games play out, the Pelicans could finish as high as fourth or even miss the playoffs altogether. This game means more to New Orleans than it does to Portland, even though that doesn’t always translate. The Pelicans have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate.

Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic are both listed as questionable for tonight’s game, which makes breaking down the Pelicans’ side of the ball difficult. If Rondo is active, we can fire him up in tournaments, especially on FanDuel ($5,700). If Rondo is ruled out, Jrue Holiday and Ian Clark would both see a boost. If Mirotic is active, he can also be fired up in tournaments. If Mirotic is ruled out, Cheick Diallo would become an excellent value play in tournaments.

We have to take a wait and see approach with most of the Pelicans tonight, but Anthony Davis should be on your radar regardless of the availability of Rondo and Mirotic. Davis has averaged 57 fantasy points over his last five games, despite playing only 34 minutes per contest during that stretch. He has as much upside as any player in the NBA and the Pelicans will likely treat this as a must-win game. If they want to make it out of the first round of the playoffs, they will likely need home-court advantage.

Notable Injuries

Nikola Mirotic (Questionable)
Rajon Rondo (Questionable)

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 111.4 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (9 of 16)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (19 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $5,700 $6,400 $13,100 26.3 10.1 25.9 4.7 1.01 18.5% 1 2 13
Jrue Holiday $8,000 $7,700 $14,100 37.1 -10.1 36.3 -5.2 1.02 21.9% 12 7 24
E’Twaun Moore $4,800 $4,500 $8,800 20.9 3.5 31.7 -0.9 0.66 14.7% 12 15 17
Anthony Davis $12,500 $11,300 $20,100 54.6 2.4 36.4 -2.5 1.50 25.7% 16 12 4
Emeka Okafor $3,500 $3,400 $6,600 16.0 -4.9 15.3 -3.3 1.05 12.3% 4 5 1
Nikola Mirotic $5,600 $5,200 $10,200 29.0 -0.5 26.7 -2.3 1.08 20.6% N/A N/A N/A
Ian Clark $4,100 $3,700 $7,200 12.0 7.0 19.4 6.2 0.62 15.5% N/A N/A N/A
Cheick Diallo $4,300 $4,000 $7,600 11.6 12.0 10.9 11.4 1.06 15.0% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (GPP – if active), Nikola Mirotic (GPP – if active), Jrue Holiday (if Rondo is out), Cheick Diallo (if Mirotic is out)


Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Houston Rockets
chicagonba Vegas Total 214.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 14.0 Vegas Spread -14.0
Implied Team Total 100.3 Implied Team Total 114.3
Pace Projection +/- 0.4 Pace Projection +/- 0.6
Projected Starters Cameron Payne Justin Holiday David Nwaba Lauri Markkanen Robin Lopez Projected Starters Chris Paul Eric Gordon Trevor Ariza P.J. Tucker Tarik Black
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 13 10 4 21 DvP 21 28 20 27 24
DRPM Rat. 2 23 13 10 14 DRPM Rat. 10 4 20 26 20

Chicago Bulls

This is the game that you want to target for value. Both teams are playing short-handed and they both play at an above-average pace. The Rockets have been tough defensively this season, but the Bulls still have an implied total over 100 points. This is in spite of the fact that they will be without Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Paul Zipser, and potentially Lauri Markkanen.

Cameron Payne has played well in his few spot starts. Over his last five games, he has averaged 29 minutes and 27 fantasy points. While he should still be able to fill up the stat sheet tonight, I’m a little worried about his offensive efficiency in a matchup against Chris Paul, who is still one of the best defenders in basketball. Justin Holiday continues to start, but he hasn’t scored more than 20 fantasy points since February 10th. Personally, I’d rather target Jerian Grant off the bench, who has actually flashed some upside recently.

Denzel Valentine was originally listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but has been upgraded to questionable. If he gets ruled out before lineups lock, David Nwaba would become an intriguing tournament play. He doesn’t quite offer the same upside as Gerald Green, but would come at significantly lower ownership. Sean Kilpatrick would also become an intriguing tournament punt if Valentine is unable to suit up. With Lauri Markkanen back in the mix, I will be avoiding the Bulls’ frontcourt completely. Noah Vonleh has been productive recently, but will likely be limited to minutes in the low-20s.

Notable Injuries

Kris Dunn (Out)
Zach LaVine (Out)
Paul Zipser (Out)
Denzel Valentine (Questionable)
Lauri Markkanen (Probable)

Chicago Bulls Offense

Points Per Game: 103.4 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (14 of 16)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (14 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Cameron Payne $5,500 $5,700 $11,100 21.9 5.1 22.1 6.4 0.99 20.8% 4 7 2
Justin Holiday $3,800 $3,500 $7,100 24.1 -11.3 32.4 -12.1 0.74 16.2% 17 13 23
David Nwaba $4,800 $4,700 $9,200 18.0 1.9 22.8 1.0 0.79 13.2% 18 10 13
Lauri Markkanen $5,800 $5,400 $10,100 27.7 -11.5 30.3 -8.0 0.91 19.0% 3 4 10
Robin Lopez $3,500 $3,300 $6,000 21.6 -10.5 26.5 -9.3 0.81 17.9% 15 21 14
Bobby Portis $6,700 $6,200 $12,100 25.7 2.4 22.4 4.3 1.15 23.2% N/A N/A N/A
Jerian Grant $4,900 $4,200 $8,600 19.9 -2.0 22.6 -1.6 0.88 18.8% N/A N/A N/A
Sean Kilpatrick $3,500 $3,000 $6,100 7.3 2.4 9.9 1.7 0.74 20.7% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant, Sean Kilpatrick & David Nwaba (if Valentine is out)


Houston Rockets

The Rockets are basically locked into the top seed in the Western Conference and they will have home-court advantage in the NBA Finals if they make it that far. We are going to see them rest starters over the next two weeks. James Harden, Clint Capela, and Luc Mbah a Moute have all been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens up minutes in the rotation and usage in the offense. It doesn’t hurt that Houston is facing a Bulls’ team that has allowed the fifth most points per game this season. The Rockets have an implied total of 114.3 points, which is the second highest on the board.

Chris Paul may not play 35 minutes if this game gets out of hand, but he’s still my favorite point guard target of the slate. With James Harden out, Paul will shoulder the load offensively. His price is palatable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 21st in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Eric Gordon is locked and loaded into my main lineup on FanDuel ($5,700). His price point on DraftKings ($7,200) will scare everyone away, which actually makes him an intriguing tournament target.

There will be plenty of minutes available for Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green, and Joe Johnson. All four are on my short list of potential targets at small forward tonight. Green offers the most upside of the bunch, while Ariza offers the highest floor. Tucker and Johnson are nice value plays, even though they aren’t the most productive per-minute players around. Tarik Black has some fantasy appeal as well, as he might end up drawing the start at center. Black is priced at the bare minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Rockets are the best team to stack tonight, even though it will be a popular strategy.

Notable Injuries

James Harden (Out)
Clint Capela (Out)
Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)
Ryan Anderson (Probable)
Chris Paul (Probable)

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 113.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (8 of 16)

Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Chris Paul $8,400 $8,100 $14,900 41.2 -0.3 31.9 1.3 1.29 25.7% 21 21 10
Eric Gordon $5,600 $7,200 $14,800 25.7 0.7 31.5 1.8 0.81 21.6% 30 28 4
Trevor Ariza $5,300 $4,800 $9,400 23.6 -3.9 34.3 -2.2 0.69 13.2% 22 20 20
P.J. Tucker $3,500 $4,000 $7,700 16.9 -1.9 27.7 0.3 0.61 9.0% 29 27 26
Tarik Black $3,500 $3,000 $6,300 9.3 -6.7 10.1 -3.3 0.92 13.0% 25 24 20
Gerald Green $3,700 $4,700 $9,100 18.2 1.5 21.6 0.8 0.84 19.7% N/A N/A N/A
Joe Johnson $3,500 $3,800 $7,400 13.5 2.6 22.3 3.2 0.60 14.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (FD), Trevor Ariza (DK), Tarik Black (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (DK), Trevor Ariza (FD), Tarik Black (Cash)


Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Miami Heat
clevelandnba Vegas Total 220.5 miaminba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Implied Team Total 112.0 Implied Team Total 108.5
Pace Projection +/- -2.0 Pace Projection +/- 0.6
Projected Starters Jose Calderon George Hill LeBron James Jeff Green Kevin Love Projected Starters Goran Dragic Tyler Johnson Josh Richardson James Johnson Kelly Olynyk
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 5 11 1 7 7 DvP 25 24 29 18 20
DRPM Rat. 22 19 9 12 10 DRPM Rat. 13 26 25 16 19

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers went from one of my favorite teams to target in DFS to one of my least favorite teams to target in the blink of an eye. Now that they are healthy for the most part, they have a ton of players that will see 20-26 minutes a night. This makes predicting fantasy production for players other than LeBron James and Kevin Love very difficult. As for tonight’s matchup, this is a difficult one. On the season, Miami is ranked 26th in pace of play and fourth in points allowed per game. The Cavaliers still have an implied total of 112 points, but that seems a bit high.

Given the fact that there are eight games on the schedule and a ton of great value plays, I will be avoiding all Cavaliers’ players not named LeBron or Love. James is playing some of his best basketball of his career, which is truly amazing given how long he has played and how dominant he has been over the years. He deserves consideration as an elite play in all formats, although I wouldn’t consider him a must play given the matchup. Love has averaged 40 fantasy points over his last five games, but is now priced at a premium. Love is more of a GPP flier than a core target tonight even though power forward is one of the thinnest positions of the slate.

Notable Injuries

Kyle Korver (Out)
Cedi Osman (Out)
Jeff Green (Probable)

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 111.1 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (7 of 16)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (26 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Jose Calderon $3,800 $3,400 $6,600 9.9 6.5 15.7 7.6 0.63 11.3% 6 5 22
George Hill $4,900 $5,000 $9,800 20.4 4.7 27.4 3.2 0.74 15.5% 6 11 19
LeBron James $12,300 $11,600 $21,700 54.8 10.4 37.1 0.2 1.48 29.7% 11 1 9
Jeff Green $4,500 $4,500 $8,800 18.3 2.5 23.0 10.3 0.80 17.0% 12 7 12
Kevin Love $8,100 $7,800 $14,100 33.8 6.3 28.1 1.1 1.20 22.3% 8 7 10
Jordan Clarkson $4,500 $4,600 $9,000 22.8 -3.1 23.6 3.4 0.97 25.3% N/A N/A N/A
Larry Nance $5,600 $5,100 $10,300 24.9 -7.3 22.4 -2.7 1.11 14.9% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (GPP)


Miami Heat

The Heat have lost five of their last ten games and are currently eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. They aren’t in any real danger of falling out of the playoffs, but they still have plenty to play for, as they can move up to sixth if they can finish the season strong. Tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is an exploitable one. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat have the highest projected point differential (+5.2) on the board tonight.

With Cleveland playing small and with Bam Adebayo and Hassan Whiteside both ruled out, I expect to see a lot of small lineups from Miami tonight. Goran Dragic offers a high floor in an elite matchup against Cleveland. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tyler Johnson’s minutes have gone down over his last five games, but if he is playing well, he has a chance to see 30 minutes tonight. I like him as a pivot off of Dwyane Wade in tournaments. That’s not to say that I don’t like Wade tonight. This is a revenge game and his price on FanDuel ($4,800) is too cheap to ignore. Josh Richardson is an elite play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He should see 35+ minutes in an elite matchup and he’s priced below $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Wayne Ellington isn’t a flashy play by any means, but he should log around 30 minutes off the bench. He’s viable in all formats if you are looking for value at shooting guard. James Johnson is locked and loaded into my main FanDuel ($5,800) lineup. He has been in tremendous form recently and should push for 30+ minutes with the injuries to the Heat frontcourt. Justise Winslow should also see a boost in minutes and I’d expect his ownership to come in at around 5% in tournaments. Kelly Olynyk never seems to fare well when he turns into chalk. With that said, he should draw the start at center tonight and he’s been on fire over his last five games, averaging 41 fantasy points per contest.

Notable Injuries

Bam Adebayo (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (1 of 16)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Game L5 +/- Minutes L5 +/- FP/Min True Usage EFF DVP DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,600 $6,800 $12,200 30.5 0.5 31.8 1.1 0.96 25.2% 21 25 13
Tyler Johnson $4,700 $4,500 $9,400 22.7 -0.5 28.8 -4.0 0.79 17.7% 18 24 26
Josh Richardson $5,800 $5,500 $10,700 26.7 1.4 33.4 1.1 0.80 16.5% 29 29 25
James Johnson $5,800 $6,200 $12,200 25.1 10.2 26.4 4.8 0.95 18.2% 27 18 16
Kelly Olynyk $7,000 $6,700 $12,800 24.4 16.4 23.8 5.5 1.03 18.9% 11 20 19
Dwyane Wade $4,800 $5,300 $10,700 24.1 -1.3 23.1 0.4 1.04 24.1% N/A N/A N/A
Wayne Ellington $4,500 $4,400 $8,900 18.2 2.7 26.7 3.6 0.68 16.1% N/A N/A N/A
Justise Winslow $4,500 $4,300 $8,200 19.7 -0.7 24.2 -0.9 0.81 15.2% N/A N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, Goran Dragic (Cash), Dwyane Wade (FD), Tyler Johnson (GPP), James Johnson (FD), Kelly Olynyk (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic (GPP), Dwyane Wade (DK), Tyler Johnson (Cash), James Johnson (DK), Kelly Olynyk (Cash), Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow (GPP)


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious