NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 27th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
San Antonio Spurs at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 202.0 | | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dejounte Murray | Patty Mills | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 15 | 19 | 3 | 6 | DvP | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
San Antonio Spurs
We have eight games on tap tonight and we start with the one that may have the least amount of fantasy appeal. The Spurs and Wizards projects to be one of the slowest-paced games of the slate and the total is set at a measly 202 points. The Wizards aren’t an elite defensive team, but they are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Spurs’ implied total of 102 points is the third lowest on the board.
Dejounte Murray has played at least 28 minutes in each of his last four games. While I want to believe that this is a trend, how many times are we going to get fooled by Greg Popovich. At all times, Murray is one bad play away from getting benched. He’s viable in large-field tournaments, but there are better cash game targets available tonight. Patty Mills and Danny Green would be decent value plays in a smaller slate, but they don’t stand out as must haves with seven other games on the schedule.
Kyle Anderson minutes are trending in the wrong direction and Rudy Gay isn’t seeing 20+ minutes consistent enough to trust as an option in DFS. LaMarcus Aldridge has been on a tear over his last five games, averaging 57 fantasy points per contest. The problem is that we now have to pay a premium for Aldridge on the road in a game where the Spurs have a low team total. I’d rather take a shot on Pau Gasol, who finally broke out of his slump with a 39 fantasy point outing against the Bucks on Sunday.
Notable Injuries
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (12 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 (10 of 16)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dejounte Murray | $5,900 | $5,300 | 21.6 | 4.1 | 21.0 | 8.1 | 1.03 | 19.2% | 11 | 14 | 7 | |
| Patty Mills | $4,300 | $4,600 | 16.9 | 4.1 | 25.0 | 8.7 | 0.68 | 17.3% | 6 | 15 | 14 | |
| Danny Green | $4,900 | $4,400 | 20.8 | -0.6 | 25.9 | 3.0 | 0.80 | 14.9% | 13 | 19 | 2 | |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,300 | $4,700 | 24.3 | -3.8 | 26.9 | -3.8 | 0.90 | 13.1% | 20 | 3 | 20 | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $9,300 | $9,200 | 40.0 | 16.8 | 33.5 | 1.3 | 1.19 | 26.5% | 9 | 6 | 9 | |
| Pau Gasol | $4,700 | $4,900 | 27.7 | -3.0 | 24.0 | -5.5 | 1.16 | 19.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Rudy Gay | $4,000 | $4,400 | 22.1 | 0.8 | 21.5 | -2.4 | 1.03 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray (GPP), Patty Mills, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol (GPP)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and appear to be heading for one of the bottom three seeds in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The name of the game at this point is to avoid taking the eight-seed in order to avoid a first-round matchup with the Raptors. They draw the worst matchup of the slate tonight, as they take on a Spurs’ team that is ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have an implied total of 100 points, which is the third lowest of the slate.
Washington is basically a full fade for me tonight. If you are a fan of Bradley Beal and his price point on FanDuel ($7,700) or DraftKings ($7,400), I’m certainly not going to talk you off of the play. With that said, his current form hasn’t been great and the Spurs are ranked first in efficiency against shooting guards this season (maybe I am going to talk you out of the play after all). The rest of the Wizards can be avoided, as the Spurs are ranked sixth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -7.0 (15 of 16)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.2 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $6,200 | $5,500 | 18.2 | 7.6 | 21.7 | 11.2 | 0.84 | 14.8% | 13 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bradley Beal | $7,700 | $7,400 | 37.8 | -2.8 | 36.5 | 1.2 | 1.04 | 25.9% | 1 | 2 | 27 | |
| Otto Porter | $7,200 | $6,500 | 31.2 | -0.1 | 32.1 | 2.1 | 0.97 | 17.3% | 7 | 6 | 1 | |
| Markieff Morris | $5,800 | $5,600 | 23.5 | 3.0 | 27.4 | 6.3 | 0.86 | 16.6% | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,100 | $4,500 | 23.1 | -0.6 | 25.3 | -3.1 | 0.91 | 14.0% | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,200 | $4,900 | 22.2 | 5.1 | 27.5 | -1.2 | 0.81 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 226.0 | | Vegas Total | 226.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.5 | Vegas Spread | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.8 | Implied Team Total | 117.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Paul Millsap | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 9 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | DvP | 26 | 5 | 18 | 25 | 18 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 18 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 26 | 22 | 3 | 11 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets really needed a win last night, but ultimately fell short against the red-hot Sixers. Luckily, Minnesota also lost, so Denver is still only a game and a half out of the eighth seed in the Western Conference. A matchup against the Raptors doesn’t look great on paper, but this game has shootout potential. The spread is set at 8.5 points and the total is massive at 226 points. In a must-win game for the Nuggets, I’m expecting a better performance tonight and we should be able to target them at low ownership.
With every game so important and with Gary Harris out, the Nuggets have tightened their rotation significantly. Jamal Murray and Will Barton could both push for close to 40 minutes if tonight’s game stays close. If comparing the matchups, Barton certainly has the edge over Murray, as he’ll get to square off against DeMar DeRozan. Wilson Chandler will play minutes in the mid to upper-30s. While he has a low usage rate, he can fill up the stat sheet. He provides a high floor for cash games. Devin Harris has played well off the bench if you are looking for a cheap tournament play on DraftKings ($3,800).
Paul Millsap hasn’t been in the best of form recently, yet he has still averaged 31 fantasy points over his last five games. His minutes are trending upward and his price continues to drop. At $5,700 on DraftKings, he is one of my favorite point-per-dollar targets at any position. Nikola Jokic struggled to get going last night, but that’s a common theme for centers facing Joel Embiid. I’m a bigger fan of tonight’s matchup against Jonas Valanciunas and the Raptors, who are ranked 19th in DvP against centers. Jokic should play 35+ minutes at a discounted price point. The best part is that his ownership should be fairly low in all formats.
Notable Injuries
Devin Harris (Probable)
Gary Harris (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 109.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.0 (11 of 16)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $7,900 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 27.6 | 8.7 | 30.9 | 5.1 | 0.89 | 21.4% | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| Will Barton | $7,100 | $7,000 | $13,500 | 30.8 | 5.3 | 32.6 | 3.0 | 0.95 | 19.9% | 14 | 3 | 24 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 22.0 | 6.6 | 31.5 | 5.2 | 0.70 | 13.7% | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Paul Millsap | $6,800 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 30.4 | 0.5 | 28.9 | 2.7 | 1.05 | 19.6% | 7 | 8 | 13 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,800 | $8,800 | $16,700 | 41.8 | 1.3 | 31.7 | 3.2 | 1.32 | 22.1% | 10 | 19 | 18 |
| Mason Plumlee | $3,900 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 20.8 | -4.8 | 20.2 | -3.1 | 1.03 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Devin Harris | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 15.3 | 5.8 | 18.6 | 6.8 | 0.82 | 18.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Will Barton, Paul Millsap (DK), Nikola Jokic (DK)
Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap (FD), Nikola Jokic (FD), Jamal Murray, Wilson Chandler
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors haven’t quite locked up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, so we can expect their starters to play a full complement of minutes over the next few games. Once they have home-court advantage locked up, we will start to see them rest their starters. Tonight’s matchup against the Nuggets is one of the best on the board. Denver is ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They are also playing their second road game in as many nights. The Raptors’ implied total of 117.3 points is the highest on the board.
Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are two players that go consistently under-owned in DFS. The biggest reason is that they often seem overpriced because Toronto is involved in so many blowouts that it ends up hurting their fantasy production. As mentioned earlier, I expect this game to stay close throughout, so we could see Lowry and DeRozan both crack the 35-minute mark. They are excellent tournament plays tonight, especially if you are looking to stack this game as a whole.
Fred VanVleet continues to be the best producer off the Raptors bench. In his last five games, he has averaged 28 minutes and 27 fantasy points. He’s viable in tournaments on both FanDuel and DraftKings, especially if you disagree with my take that this game is going to stay close. Serge Ibaka has an appealing price point on DraftKings ($4,700), but the Nuggets are much better against power forwards when Paul Millsap is in the lineup. I rarely target centers against the Nuggets, especially ones that are priced at a premium like Jonas Valanciunas.
Notable Injuries
None
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.3 (1 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (3 of 16)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $8,300 | $8,200 | $15,500 | 35.2 | 5.2 | 32.3 | 1.9 | 1.09 | 21.8% | 27 | 26 | 27 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,000 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 37.4 | -9.4 | 34.1 | -0.2 | 1.10 | 28.5% | 11 | 5 | 26 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 12.1 | -3.6 | 20.0 | -5.2 | 0.60 | 10.7% | 15 | 18 | 22 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,300 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 24.7 | -3.5 | 27.5 | 0.7 | 0.90 | 16.9% | 24 | 25 | 3 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $7,000 | $6,600 | $12,300 | 27.1 | -0.5 | 22.5 | -1.9 | 1.20 | 18.9% | 13 | 18 | 11 |
| Fred VanVleet | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 19.0 | 8.4 | 20.1 | 7.7 | 0.94 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $4,300 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 18.3 | -1.2 | 0.95 | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry (GPP), DeMar DeRozan (GPP), Fred VanVleet (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (Cash), DeMar DeRozan (Cash), Fred VanVleet (Cash)
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 222.0 | | Vegas Total | 222.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.5 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Maurice Harkless | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Anthony Davis | Emeka Okafor | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 27 | 22 | 19 | 16 | DvP | 2 | 7 | 15 | 12 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 16 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 24 | 17 | 4 | 1 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have won eight of their last ten games and only need a few more wins to lock up the three seed in the Western Conference. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked third in pace of play, 29th in points allowed per game, and 21st in rebounding differential. Despite playing on the road, the Blazers have the seventh highest implied total (110.5 points) and the fourth best projected point differential (+4.5) of any team on the schedule.
Damian Lillard is going to get overlooked in all formats tonight thanks to how much ownership Chris Paul is going to soak up. Don’t get me wrong, I love CP3 tonight as much as the next guy, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t play both. Lillard is affordable, he has an elite matchup, and he has an elite usage rate. C.J. McCollum is a player that I never seem to be on the right side of. This matchup sets up well for him, as the Pelicans are ranked 27th in both efficiency and DvP against shooting guards this season.
Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu have both played well recently, averaging 27 and 29 fantasy points respectively, over their last five games. The problem is that they are now priced at a premium and consistency isn’t necessarily their strong suit. Jusuf Nurkic is finally playing minutes in the upper-20s on a regular basis. I expect that trend to continue as we head into the playoffs. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate and for those of you risk-tolerant individuals out there, you can even consider him in cash games.
Notable Injuries
None
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.5 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (4 of 16)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,000 | $9,400 | $17,000 | 42.9 | -1.8 | 36.5 | -0.2 | 1.18 | 29.2% | 16 | 19 | 20 |
| C.J. McCollum | $7,300 | $7,500 | $13,700 | 33.4 | 1.8 | 36.0 | -0.4 | 0.93 | 24.8% | 27 | 27 | 2 |
| Maurice Harkless | $4,700 | $4,400 | $9,300 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 0.70 | 11.6% | 17 | 22 | 30 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $6,500 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 24.4 | 14.1 | 30.0 | 2.7 | 0.81 | 13.2% | 24 | 19 | 1 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,900 | $6,700 | $12,100 | 31.2 | 7.0 | 26.1 | 1.2 | 1.20 | 22.8% | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Ed Davis | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 17.8 | -7.1 | 19.0 | -1.4 | 0.93 | 10.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic
Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have lost five of their last ten games and are now tied with the Thunder and Spurs with 31 losses on the season. Depending on how the last few games play out, the Pelicans could finish as high as fourth or even miss the playoffs altogether. This game means more to New Orleans than it does to Portland, even though that doesn’t always translate. The Pelicans have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate.
Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic are both listed as questionable for tonight’s game, which makes breaking down the Pelicans’ side of the ball difficult. If Rondo is active, we can fire him up in tournaments, especially on FanDuel ($5,700). If Rondo is ruled out, Jrue Holiday and Ian Clark would both see a boost. If Mirotic is active, he can also be fired up in tournaments. If Mirotic is ruled out, Cheick Diallo would become an excellent value play in tournaments.
We have to take a wait and see approach with most of the Pelicans tonight, but Anthony Davis should be on your radar regardless of the availability of Rondo and Mirotic. Davis has averaged 57 fantasy points over his last five games, despite playing only 34 minutes per contest during that stretch. He has as much upside as any player in the NBA and the Pelicans will likely treat this as a must-win game. If they want to make it out of the first round of the playoffs, they will likely need home-court advantage.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Mirotic (Questionable)
Rajon Rondo (Questionable)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (9 of 16)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,700 | $6,400 | $13,100 | 26.3 | 10.1 | 25.9 | 4.7 | 1.01 | 18.5% | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,000 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 37.1 | -10.1 | 36.3 | -5.2 | 1.02 | 21.9% | 12 | 7 | 24 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,800 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 20.9 | 3.5 | 31.7 | -0.9 | 0.66 | 14.7% | 12 | 15 | 17 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,500 | $11,300 | $20,100 | 54.6 | 2.4 | 36.4 | -2.5 | 1.50 | 25.7% | 16 | 12 | 4 |
| Emeka Okafor | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 16.0 | -4.9 | 15.3 | -3.3 | 1.05 | 12.3% | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $5,600 | $5,200 | $10,200 | 29.0 | -0.5 | 26.7 | -2.3 | 1.08 | 20.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Ian Clark | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 19.4 | 6.2 | 0.62 | 15.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Cheick Diallo | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 11.6 | 12.0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 1.06 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis
Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo (GPP – if active), Nikola Mirotic (GPP – if active), Jrue Holiday (if Rondo is out), Cheick Diallo (if Mirotic is out)
Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 214.5 | | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 14.0 | Vegas Spread | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 114.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Cameron Payne | Justin Holiday | David Nwaba | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Tarik Black | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 21 | DvP | 21 | 28 | 20 | 27 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 4 | 20 | 26 | 20 | |
Chicago Bulls
This is the game that you want to target for value. Both teams are playing short-handed and they both play at an above-average pace. The Rockets have been tough defensively this season, but the Bulls still have an implied total over 100 points. This is in spite of the fact that they will be without Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Paul Zipser, and potentially Lauri Markkanen.
Cameron Payne has played well in his few spot starts. Over his last five games, he has averaged 29 minutes and 27 fantasy points. While he should still be able to fill up the stat sheet tonight, I’m a little worried about his offensive efficiency in a matchup against Chris Paul, who is still one of the best defenders in basketball. Justin Holiday continues to start, but he hasn’t scored more than 20 fantasy points since February 10th. Personally, I’d rather target Jerian Grant off the bench, who has actually flashed some upside recently.
Denzel Valentine was originally listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, but has been upgraded to questionable. If he gets ruled out before lineups lock, David Nwaba would become an intriguing tournament play. He doesn’t quite offer the same upside as Gerald Green, but would come at significantly lower ownership. Sean Kilpatrick would also become an intriguing tournament punt if Valentine is unable to suit up. With Lauri Markkanen back in the mix, I will be avoiding the Bulls’ frontcourt completely. Noah Vonleh has been productive recently, but will likely be limited to minutes in the low-20s.
Notable Injuries
Kris Dunn (Out)
Zach LaVine (Out)
Paul Zipser (Out)
Denzel Valentine (Questionable)
Lauri Markkanen (Probable)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.4 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (13 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (14 of 16)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Payne | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,100 | 21.9 | 5.1 | 22.1 | 6.4 | 0.99 | 20.8% | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| Justin Holiday | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 24.1 | -11.3 | 32.4 | -12.1 | 0.74 | 16.2% | 17 | 13 | 23 |
| David Nwaba | $4,800 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 18.0 | 1.9 | 22.8 | 1.0 | 0.79 | 13.2% | 18 | 10 | 13 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,800 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 27.7 | -11.5 | 30.3 | -8.0 | 0.91 | 19.0% | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| Robin Lopez | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 21.6 | -10.5 | 26.5 | -9.3 | 0.81 | 17.9% | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| Bobby Portis | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,100 | 25.7 | 2.4 | 22.4 | 4.3 | 1.15 | 23.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jerian Grant | $4,900 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 19.9 | -2.0 | 22.6 | -1.6 | 0.88 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sean Kilpatrick | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 0.74 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Cameron Payne, Jerian Grant, Sean Kilpatrick & David Nwaba (if Valentine is out)
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are basically locked into the top seed in the Western Conference and they will have home-court advantage in the NBA Finals if they make it that far. We are going to see them rest starters over the next two weeks. James Harden, Clint Capela, and Luc Mbah a Moute have all been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens up minutes in the rotation and usage in the offense. It doesn’t hurt that Houston is facing a Bulls’ team that has allowed the fifth most points per game this season. The Rockets have an implied total of 114.3 points, which is the second highest on the board.
Chris Paul may not play 35 minutes if this game gets out of hand, but he’s still my favorite point guard target of the slate. With James Harden out, Paul will shoulder the load offensively. His price is palatable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Bulls, who are ranked 21st in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Eric Gordon is locked and loaded into my main lineup on FanDuel ($5,700). His price point on DraftKings ($7,200) will scare everyone away, which actually makes him an intriguing tournament target.
There will be plenty of minutes available for Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green, and Joe Johnson. All four are on my short list of potential targets at small forward tonight. Green offers the most upside of the bunch, while Ariza offers the highest floor. Tucker and Johnson are nice value plays, even though they aren’t the most productive per-minute players around. Tarik Black has some fantasy appeal as well, as he might end up drawing the start at center. Black is priced at the bare minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Rockets are the best team to stack tonight, even though it will be a popular strategy.
Notable Injuries
James Harden (Out)
Clint Capela (Out)
Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)
Ryan Anderson (Probable)
Chris Paul (Probable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 113.5 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (8 of 16)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.3 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,400 | $8,100 | $14,900 | 41.2 | -0.3 | 31.9 | 1.3 | 1.29 | 25.7% | 21 | 21 | 10 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,600 | $7,200 | $14,800 | 25.7 | 0.7 | 31.5 | 1.8 | 0.81 | 21.6% | 30 | 28 | 4 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.6 | -3.9 | 34.3 | -2.2 | 0.69 | 13.2% | 22 | 20 | 20 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,500 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 16.9 | -1.9 | 27.7 | 0.3 | 0.61 | 9.0% | 29 | 27 | 26 |
| Tarik Black | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 9.3 | -6.7 | 10.1 | -3.3 | 0.92 | 13.0% | 25 | 24 | 20 |
| Gerald Green | $3,700 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 18.2 | 1.5 | 21.6 | 0.8 | 0.84 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Johnson | $3,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 13.5 | 2.6 | 22.3 | 3.2 | 0.60 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Gerald Green, Joe Johnson, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon (FD), Trevor Ariza (DK), Tarik Black (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon (DK), Trevor Ariza (FD), Tarik Black (Cash)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 220.5 | | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.5 | Vegas Spread | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 112.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | George Hill | LeBron James | Jeff Green | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 7 | DvP | 25 | 24 | 29 | 18 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 19 | 9 | 12 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 13 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 19 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers went from one of my favorite teams to target in DFS to one of my least favorite teams to target in the blink of an eye. Now that they are healthy for the most part, they have a ton of players that will see 20-26 minutes a night. This makes predicting fantasy production for players other than LeBron James and Kevin Love very difficult. As for tonight’s matchup, this is a difficult one. On the season, Miami is ranked 26th in pace of play and fourth in points allowed per game. The Cavaliers still have an implied total of 112 points, but that seems a bit high.
Given the fact that there are eight games on the schedule and a ton of great value plays, I will be avoiding all Cavaliers’ players not named LeBron or Love. James is playing some of his best basketball of his career, which is truly amazing given how long he has played and how dominant he has been over the years. He deserves consideration as an elite play in all formats, although I wouldn’t consider him a must play given the matchup. Love has averaged 40 fantasy points over his last five games, but is now priced at a premium. Love is more of a GPP flier than a core target tonight even though power forward is one of the thinnest positions of the slate.
Notable Injuries
Kyle Korver (Out)
Cedi Osman (Out)
Jeff Green (Probable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (7 of 16)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 15.7 | 7.6 | 0.63 | 11.3% | 6 | 5 | 22 |
| George Hill | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 20.4 | 4.7 | 27.4 | 3.2 | 0.74 | 15.5% | 6 | 11 | 19 |
| LeBron James | $12,300 | $11,600 | $21,700 | 54.8 | 10.4 | 37.1 | 0.2 | 1.48 | 29.7% | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| Jeff Green | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 18.3 | 2.5 | 23.0 | 10.3 | 0.80 | 17.0% | 12 | 7 | 12 |
| Kevin Love | $8,100 | $7,800 | $14,100 | 33.8 | 6.3 | 28.1 | 1.1 | 1.20 | 22.3% | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 22.8 | -3.1 | 23.6 | 3.4 | 0.97 | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Larry Nance | $5,600 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 24.9 | -7.3 | 22.4 | -2.7 | 1.11 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (GPP)
Miami Heat
The Heat have lost five of their last ten games and are currently eighth in the Eastern Conference standings. They aren’t in any real danger of falling out of the playoffs, but they still have plenty to play for, as they can move up to sixth if they can finish the season strong. Tonight’s matchup against the Cavaliers is an exploitable one. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Heat have the highest projected point differential (+5.2) on the board tonight.
With Cleveland playing small and with Bam Adebayo and Hassan Whiteside both ruled out, I expect to see a lot of small lineups from Miami tonight. Goran Dragic offers a high floor in an elite matchup against Cleveland. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tyler Johnson’s minutes have gone down over his last five games, but if he is playing well, he has a chance to see 30 minutes tonight. I like him as a pivot off of Dwyane Wade in tournaments. That’s not to say that I don’t like Wade tonight. This is a revenge game and his price on FanDuel ($4,800) is too cheap to ignore. Josh Richardson is an elite play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He should see 35+ minutes in an elite matchup and he’s priced below $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Wayne Ellington isn’t a flashy play by any means, but he should log around 30 minutes off the bench. He’s viable in all formats if you are looking for value at shooting guard. James Johnson is locked and loaded into my main FanDuel ($5,800) lineup. He has been in tremendous form recently and should push for 30+ minutes with the injuries to the Heat frontcourt. Justise Winslow should also see a boost in minutes and I’d expect his ownership to come in at around 5% in tournaments. Kelly Olynyk never seems to fare well when he turns into chalk. With that said, he should draw the start at center tonight and he’s been on fire over his last five games, averaging 41 fantasy points per contest.
Notable Injuries
Bam Adebayo (Out)
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (1 of 16)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.3 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.8 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,600 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 30.5 | 0.5 | 31.8 | 1.1 | 0.96 | 25.2% | 21 | 25 | 13 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,700 | $4,500 | $9,400 | 22.7 | -0.5 | 28.8 | -4.0 | 0.79 | 17.7% | 18 | 24 | 26 |
| Josh Richardson | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 26.7 | 1.4 | 33.4 | 1.1 | 0.80 | 16.5% | 29 | 29 | 25 |
| James Johnson | $5,800 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 25.1 | 10.2 | 26.4 | 4.8 | 0.95 | 18.2% | 27 | 18 | 16 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 24.4 | 16.4 | 23.8 | 5.5 | 1.03 | 18.9% | 11 | 20 | 19 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,800 | $5,300 | $10,700 | 24.1 | -1.3 | 23.1 | 0.4 | 1.04 | 24.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,500 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.2 | 2.7 | 26.7 | 3.6 | 0.68 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Justise Winslow | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.7 | -0.7 | 24.2 | -0.9 | 0.81 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
