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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-25 17:02:11

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Sacramento Kings Indiana Pacers
sacramentonba Vegas Total 212.0 indiananba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 99.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Omri Casspi DeMarcus Cousins Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 4 23 5 18 22 Opp. Season 21 25 25 27 25
Opp. Last 7 22 1 14 26 22 Opp. Last 7 20 8 20 3 26

Sacramento Kings

Record: 11-17 — Road: 3-10 — Last 10: 5-5

There are a whopping 13 games on the schedule tonight. In the interest of time (mine and yours), today’s Grind Down will be slightly condensed.

The Kings have won five of their last ten games, but are only 3-10 on the road this season. They travel to Indiana tonight to take on the Pacers in what should be a fast-paced game. The Kings are projected to score 102.5 points, which is right around the average of the 26 teams in action tonight.

Even though the Pacers play at a fast pace, they still have an above-average defense. They are a top ten defense in terms of efficiency and points allowed per game. This isn’t a great matchup for the Kings, but hopefully the quick pace will help negate some of that. Willie Cauley-Stein remains out tonight, which means another start for Omri Casspi.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

With 13 games on the schedule, we don’t need to force Cousins into our cash game lineups tonight. However, he could make a nice tournament play. He has admitted that he hasn’t played his best basketball recently, yet he is still averaging 44.1 fantasy points in his last five games. That shows how much upside he has.

FD — $9,900 — C
DK — $10,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 27.9
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 43.7 | Last Five Games: 44.1

Omri Casspi

Casspi’s price is getting a little too expensive to list him as an elite play, but he continues to log heavy minutes with Willie Cauley-Stein out. He has averaged 34.7 minutes and 24.8 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $5,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 11.7
Min/Game — Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 24.8

Indiana Pacers

Record: 16-11 — Home: 10-3 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pacers have lost six of their last ten games, but they have played well at home this season with a 10-3 record. Tonight they host the visiting Kings, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Pacers are projected to score 109.5 points, which is the third highest on the board and 6.9 points higher than their average points per game this season.

As mentioned above, the Kings have had very little success on the defensive end of the floor this season. They play at a fast pace and they are ranked in the bottom five in terms of defensive efficiency. We can safely give the Pacers a sizable boost as a whole tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul George

George’s production has been way down recently, but it’s a great night to buy low on the All-Star. He draws one of the top matchups on the board and he is playing at home. He is the premier play at small forward tonight.

FD — $9,100 — SF
DK — $8,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.2 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 40.7 | Last Five Games: 29.6

Secondary Plays

Monta Ellis

Ellis draws a nice matchup against the Kings, who have perennially been one of the worst teams at defending shooting guards. He comes into this game in relatively good form, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in four of his last seven games.

FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 22.8

Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Washington Wizards
memphisnba Vegas Total 202.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 101.5
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 100.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Jeff Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Kelly Oubre Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 7 29 30 8 9 Opp. Season 18 8 19 16 8
Opp. Last 7 10 25 30 10 25 Opp. Last 7 2 4 17 14 13

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 16-14 — Road: 7-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Grizzlies picked up an easy win over the Sixers last night. They now have a quick turnaround, as they head to Washington to take on the Wizards. The Grizzlies are projected to score 100.5 points in this matchup. While that may not seem all that enticing, their total is 4.3 points higher than their average points per game this season.

Statistically, the Wizards have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. There are only a handful of teams that are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Even though they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, we can give a nice boost to the Grizzlies’ offense as a whole.

Elite Plays

Matt Barnes

Barnes has been on an absolute tear since being inserted into the starting lineup. He had one bad outing against the Bulls (thanks to foul trouble), but has topped 32 fantasy points in each of the other five starts. His price has come up, but he is still an excellent option in a pace-up game for Memphis.

FD — $4,900 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 13.9
Min/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 28.0

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Gasol is a safe play tonight against the Wizards. Even though his matchup against Marcin Gortat is less than ideal, the Wizards are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. Gasol comes into this game in great form, averaging 39.3 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 20.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 39.3

Mike Conley

As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, Conley is one of those players that you never really get excited about using in DFS. He’s a viable play tonight thanks to his cheap price point, but he’ll be low owned in all league formats.

FD — $6,400 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 32.7

Washington Wizards

Record: 12-14 — Home: 6-7 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games, but they continue to hobble their way through the NBA schedule. Basically, if you play for the Wizards, odds are that you are probably injured. Washington has an implied team total of 101.5 points tonight, which is nearly identical to their average points per game this season.

The Grizzlies’ defense has taken a big hit this season. Rather than being a top-five defense, they are flirting with being below-average. This isn’t a matchup that we should go out of our way to target, but it’s not one that we have to avoid either. Otto Porter was unable to go through shootaround this morning. He is listed as doubtful, which gives a nice boost to Garrett Temple, “(player-popup)Kelly Oubre Jr, and Jared Dudley.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

Wall looked fine the other night, but the injuries are piling up. He now has a bone spur in addition to an MCL sprain. The combination of the injuries and an elevated price drop him down to a secondary play tonight against the Grizzlies.

FD — $10,000 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.2 | Last Five Games: 37.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.9 | Last Five Games: 42.4

Marcin Gortat

Targeting centers against Marc Gasol is not a profitable long-term strategy in DFS, but Gortat is coming off of a monster game against the Kings. With all of the injuries to the Wizards’ frontcourt, he should see minutes in the mid-30’s again tonight.

FD — $7,100 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 17.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 36.4

Garrett Temple

Temple has scored 34 and 37 fantasy points in his last two games. A lot of people are going to target him tonight, but it feels a little like chasing points to me. His matchup against the Grizzlies isn’t great, his price has come up, and Gary Neal is expected to be back. For those reasons, I see Temple as a secondary play tonight.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 26.7
FP/Game — Season: 12.8 | Last Five Games: 20.7

Jared Dudley

After Dudley let us down over and over a few weeks ago, I didn’t think he was ever going to be featured in the Grind Down again. However, with all of the injuries, he is going to see all of the minutes that he can handle. He has played 41 minutes in each of his last two games.

FD — $4,100 — SF
DK — $4,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.1 | Last Five Games: 10.8
Min/Game — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 22.7

Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Houston Rockets Orlando Magic
houstonnba Vegas Total 207.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 100.50 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 14 9 16 10 12 Opp. Season 23 19 28 30 16
Opp. Last 7 3 24 21 6 3 Opp. Last 7 6 5 2 29 9

Houston Rockets

Record: 15-14 — Road: 6-7 — Last 10: 7-3

The Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season, having won seven of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on the Magic, who have an underrated defense. The Rockets are projected to score 103 points, which is the tenth highest on the board tonight.

The Magic have been stout defensive this season. They are ranked at or above the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Rockets are still a team that we can expect to put up points, but the matchup is not as favorable as it may seem.

Elite Plays

James Harden

If I had a borderline elite play category, that is where I would put Harden tonight. He complained about his minutes earlier in the season and it appears that he got his wish. He has only averaged 35.1 in his last five games. That may not seem like a big dip, but when you are averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute, that equates to nearly four less fantasy points per game.

FD — $10,600 — SG
DK — $10,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 28.2
Min/Game — Season: 38.1 | Last Five Games: 35.1
FP/Game — Season: 46.6 | Last Five Games: 43.2

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Howard has played well in previous trips back to Orlando, but the situation is a bit different this season. Not only are the Magic a better team defensively, but Howard’s minutes aren’t what they used to be. He hasn’t topped 28 minutes in any of the last four games. He is more of a tournament play tonight.

FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $7,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 17.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.6 | Last Five Games: 27.8
FP/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 27.7

Orlando Magic

Record: 16-12 — Home: 9-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Magic have won six of their last ten games and have improved to 16-12 on the season. They draw one of the most favorable matchups in the NBA tonight, as they host the visiting Rockets. The Magic are projected to score 104 points, which is 3.1 points higher than their average points per game this season.

The Rockets play at a quick pace and they often forget to play defense. That’s a great combination for their opponents. The Magic should have a nice night offensively against a defense that is ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed this season. Elfrid Payton was forced to leave Monday night’s game, after tweaking his ankle for the second time in the last week. He is listed as probable tonight, but he’s a risky fantasy option tonight.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic

If I’m targeting a center from this game, it’s going to be Vucevic. He plays more minutes than Dwight Howard, he has a better matchup, and he has been in better form. Over his last five games, Vucevic is averaging 37.7 fantasy points per contest.

FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 23.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 31.9
FP/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 37.7

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

This is a sneaky good spot for Harris. He is at his best in transition, which is where the majority of this game will be played. If he can score a few easy buckets early, it could really propel him to a big fantasy outing. He’s an elite tournament play and is worth a look in cash games as well.

FD — $6,400 — SF
DK — $6,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.3 | Last Five Games: 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 31.7 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 30.6

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

New York Knicks Cleveland Cavaliers
newyorknba Vegas Total 196.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 92.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 96.90 Team Pace 95.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 15 18 3 1 2 Opp. Season 8 22 4 4 15
Opp. Last 7 24 2 8 17 2 Opp. Last 7 19 14 12 2 23

New York Knicks

Record: 14-15 — Road: 7-7 — Last 10: 5-5

The Knicks have won five of their last ten games and have a decent record on the road at 7-7. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, who have the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Knicks are only projected to score 92 points, which is the lowest team total on the board tonight.

The Cavaliers have an elite defense. They are ranked sixth or better in each of the four defensive categories above. Even if Carmelo Anthony, who is questionable, is in the lineup, this is still a good spot to fade the Knicks. With 13 games on the schedule, there is no reason to target players in a bad matchup.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 18-7 — Home: 12-1 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaiers have won seven of their last ten games and have a shiny 12-1 record at home. Tonight they host the visiting Knicks, who could end up being without their best player. The Cavaliers are projected to score 104 points tonight, but this is a game that could easily turn into a blowout.

The Knicks have been above-average defensively this season, ranking ninth in points allowed per game and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas likes the matchup for the Cavaliers, but the concern here is that the starters could end up sitting out the fourth quarter in a potential blowout.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

If this game was in New York, James would be listed as an elite play. However, with this game being played in Cleveland, we have to worry about Lebron’s minutes in a potential blowout. I’d rather take the discount and play Paul George in a more favorable matchup against the Kings.

FD — $10,400 — SF
DK — $10,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 30.1
Min/Game — Season: 36.3 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 45.7 | Last Five Games: 47.5

Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Boston Celtics Charlotte Hornets
bostonnba Vegas Total 203.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 102.8
Team Pace 101.20 Team Pace 98.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder David Lee Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 5 21 8 26 17 Opp. Season 1 16 23 22 21
Opp. Last 7 9 30 18 5 14 Opp. Last 7 13 15 9 20 27

Boston Celtics

Record: 15-13 — Road: 7-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have won five of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets’ team that has a similar record. The Celtics are only projected to score 100.8 points in this matchup, which is 2.7 points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Hornets have been fairly stout defensively, ranking eighth in points allowed per game this season. This will be a pace-down game for Boston, which is a small concern. Amir Johnson has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, but it looks like Jared Sullinger will be back in the lineup. With Johnson out, give a small boost to both David Lee and Kelly Olynyk.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas is a bit too expensive to be considered an elite play on FanDuel, but he is an excellent option on DraftKings. The concern with him earlier in the season was his minutes, but he has averaged 34.4 over his last five games.

FD — $8,300 — PG
DK — $7,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 38.6

Secondary Plays

Kelly Olynyk

Even though Jared Sullinger will be back tonight, Olynyk should still see a few extra minutes with Amir Johnson still on the shelf. Olynyk has shown great upside off the bench and if he sees 25+ minutes, he should be able to exceed value against a small Hornets’ frontcourt.

FD — $4,100 — C
DK — $4,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.3 | Last Five Games: 15.2
Min/Game — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 21.0
FP/Game — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 12.8

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 15-12 — Home: 11-4 — Last 10: 5-5

The Hornets have won five of their last ten games. Most of their wins this season have come at home. Tonight’s game against the Celtics is expected to be close, as the Hornets are listed as 2-point favorites. Charlotte has an implied team total of 102.8 points, which is nearly identical to their average points per game this season.

The Celtics play at a quick pace, but they have been very good defensively this season. They are ranked third in defensive efficiency and tenth in points allowed per game. Al Jefferson remains out for the Hornets, which means Cody Zeller, Marvin Williams, and Frank Kaminsky will all continue to see a few extra minutes a piece.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

I love the price point on Walker, but the Celtics have been terrific against point guards this season. They have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Walker is playing at home though, which helps negate the difficult matchup.

FD — $7,700 — PG
DK — $7,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 21.5
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 37.5
FP/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 31.4

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious