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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-29 03:52:03

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Indiana Pacers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Washington Wizards
indiananba Vegas Total 213.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 109.0
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 8 17 6 25 12 DvP 20 19 17 22 16
DRPM -0.35 -1.08 1.24 1.45 1.25 DRPM 0.18 -1.10 -0.30 1.16 2.00

Indiana Pacers

We have a ten game slate on tap Wednesday night. We’ll start with the Pacers, who are looking to snap a three-game losing streak tonight. They head to Washington to take on the Wizards in what is expected to be a close, high scoring game. The Wizards have been an easy matchup to target this season, as they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pacers come into the game as 5-point underdogs with an implied total of 104 points.

Jeff Teague is coming off of a dud against the Bulls, but tonight is a great opportunity to hop back on him in tournaments. Rodney Stuckey has already been ruled out and we know that Teague sees a 4% usage boost when Monta Ellis is off the floor. Prior to his last game, Teague had scored at least 42 fantasy points in five straight games. Even with Ellis and Stuckey out, it’s hard to get excited about Glenn Robinson or C.J. Miles in a ten game slate. Miles is the preferred option of the two, but he is a GPP flier at best. Paul George hasn’t shown a high ceiling recently and the Wizards have been stingy against opposing small forwards this season. Thaddeus Young has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last seven games and looks like a great cash game target tonight against Markieff Morris. Myles Turner is worth a look in tournaments, but Marcin Gortat has historically been an excellent low post defender.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,500 $7,200 1.04 31.9 0.2 33.2 1.7 26.8% 1.1% 8 -0.35
Glenn Robinson $3,700 $3,700 0.56 22.0 11.7 12.4 -0.4 12.6% -2.0% 17 -1.08
Paul George $7,600 $7,700 0.99 36.0 3.0 35.8 -5.8 26.6% -2.7% 6 1.24
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,800 0.76 31.1 4.1 23.7 7.1 16.2% 2.1% 25 1.45
Myles Turner $6,300 $6,300 1.03 29.4 0.9 30.4 -0.4 19.5% 1.7% 12 1.25
C.J. Miles $4,000 $3,800 0.79 22.7 3.4 17.9 -1.3 18.3% -0.1% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Thaddeus Young

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Jeff Teague (Cash), Myles Turner

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because their minutes are easy to predict and frankly, they don’t play a lick of defense. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential. This game has the makings of a shootout and I will certainly have a few different stacks of this game in tournaments. The Wizards have an implied total of 109 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and 3.9 points above their season average.

John Wall is getting better each and every season. While the Wizards have struggled as a whole, it hasn’t been from the play of Wall. He is averaging 44.7 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 35% on the season. Jeff Teague is a mediocre defender overall and the Pacers are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. A lot of my lineups tonight are going to start with Wall and one of the Clippers’ point guards. Bradley Beal has cooled off in the last two weeks, but draws a get-right matchup against the Pacers. He’ll draw the defense of Glenn Robinson and C.J. Miles and I like his chances in both of those matchups. Otto Porter has not been a model of consistency, but he provides a high ceiling for tournaments. Markieff Morris is one of the most frustrating players in all of DFS, but he should see 30+ minutes against a Pacers’ frontcourt that is ranked 22nd against power forwards and 29th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,500 $9,500 1.23 36.3 0.3 44.7 -1.3 35.0% -3.7% 20 0.18
Bradley Beal $6,700 $6,400 0.91 34.9 -0.2 31.9 -3.4 26.4% -1.5% 19 -1.10
Otto Porter $5,800 $5,900 0.84 33.8 -7.5 28.3 0.0 15.2% 4.2% 17 -0.30
Markieff Morris $5,000 $5,100 0.76 31.7 2.7 24.2 -1.7 19.9% -3.3% 22 1.16
Marcin Gortat $6,000 $5,700 0.82 35.6 -1.3 29.3 -4.8 13.6% -2.3% 16 2.00
Kelly Oubre $3,700 $3,400 0.67 18.6 -0.8 12.4 -1.3 14.7% -0.3% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Markieff Morris (Cash)

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Orlando Magic
charlottenba Vegas Total 204.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread -3.5 Vegas Spread 3.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 100.5
Pace +/- -1.2 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Jodie Meeks Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 9 11 10 25 DvP 18 12 23 16 24
DRPM -1.98 -0.73 -1.34 1.02 1.42 DRPM -0.79 0.47 2.00 0.55 1.83

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have played well this season, but they do have a sub-.500 record on the road. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on a Magic team that has been playing their best basketball of the season. The Hornets are listed as 3.5-point favorites, but the total for the game is set at only 204.5 points. Charlotte has an implied total of 104 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. Marco Belinelli has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, which opens up minutes for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb.

Kemba Walker has slightly better numbers at home than he does on the road, but we should be willing to overlook that in a matchup against the Magic. D.J. Augustin and Elfrid Payton both have negative DRPM scores and as a whole, Orlando is ranked 19th against point guards. Walker is affordable across the industry and he should get overlooked given the natural tendency to spend up or down at point guard in this slate. Nicolas Batum has really played well in the last couple of weeks, scoring at least 41 fantasy points in five of his last six games. His price is on the rise, but I will still have some exposure to him in all formats. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb grade out as two of the best value plays at their respective positions. With Marco Belinelli out on Monday, MKG played 33 minutes and score 31 fantasy points, while Lamb played 22 minutes and scored 25 fantasy points. Cody Zeller has quietly seen a nice boost in minutes and fantasy production the last two weeks and no one seems to have noticed. He is a sneaky target at center again tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,600 $8,000 1.08 33.5 2.8 36.2 0.9 30.4% -0.4% 19 -1.98
Nicolas Batum $7,600 $7,900 0.95 34.8 3.1 33.0 11.9 22.7% 1.4% 9 -0.73
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,700 $4,800 0.76 28.9 3.6 22.0 7.1 14.5% 0.0% 11 -1.34
Marvin Williams $4,400 $4,500 0.72 27.5 -0.2 19.7 0.4 17.1% -0.5% 10 1.02
Cody Zeller $5,200 $5,100 0.89 26.2 2.3 23.3 5.5 16.9% 0.6% 25 1.42
Jeremy Lamb $3,700 $3,800 1.05 16.1 0.3 16.8 -3.1 24.2% 1.4% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jeremy Lamb

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Cody Zeller

Orlando Magic

The Magic have won five of their last two games and are close to getting back to .500 overall. They are listed as 3.5-point underdogs in a fairly difficult matchup against the Hornets. Even though Charlotte owns a top ten defense, the Magic still have an implied total of 100.5 points, which is 1.8 points above their season average. The hard part with the Magic is predicting where their production is going to come from. The key situation to monitor today is the status of Evan Fournier. If he is out, Jodie Meeks would draw another start at shooting guard. In his two spot starts this season, Meeks has scored 20 and 24 fantasy points. If we run the CourtIQ with Fournier off of the floor, we can also see that Serge Ibaka, D.J. Augustin, and Aaron Gordon all see 3-4% usage boosts. Gordon is the most appealing of the bunch, as he may pick up a few extra minutes in Fournier’s absence as well. Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton are always intriguing tournament fliers, but neither are on my radar in a cash game setting.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $3,700 $3,600 0.74 20.5 -1.2 15.1 0.3 22.4% -2.1% 18 -0.79
Jodie Meeks $4,400 $3,900 0.76 19.0 8.7 14.4 7.6 18.2% -2.6% 12 0.47
Aaron Gordon $4,300 $4,900 0.76 26.1 -0.6 20.0 2.2 19.9% 2.0% 23 2.00
Serge Ibaka $6,300 $6,200 0.94 30.4 -1.8 28.6 8.2 20.2% 5.3% 16 0.55
Bismack Biyombo $4,900 $4,400 0.79 26.4 -0.1 20.8 5.2 12.8% 1.7% 24 1.83
Nikola Vucevic $6,700 $6,100 1.12 27.8 -1.2 31.1 -5.0 24.7% -1.7% 24 N/A
Elfrid Payton $6,300 $6,000 0.93 28.7 0.1 26.6 7.3 24.7% 2.9% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Jodie Meeks and Aaron Gordon (if Fournier is out)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic, Elfrid Payton, Serge Ibaka

New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

New York Knicks Atlanta Hawks
newyorknba Vegas Total 210.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread 3.5 Vegas Spread -3.5
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 1.6 Pace +/- 0.9
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 23 15 8 2 DvP 13 28 18 11 29
DRPM -2.85 -0.41 2.69 3.67 2.54 DRPM -2.15 -0.23 -1.91 1.23 1.84

New York Knicks

The Knicks are 16-14 on the season and would be the fifth seed in the East if the regular season ended today. After a slow start, it’s good to see basketball relevant in New York again. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on a struggling Hawks’ team that has had a rough month of December. The Knicks are listed as 3.5-point underdogs in a game that features an over/under of 210.5 points. Even though the Knicks’ implied total of 103.5 points seems high, it is actually the eighth lowest in the slate and 2.1 points below their season average.

The best way to attack the Hawks this season has been with point guards. Dennis Schroder has a DRPM of -2.85, which is ranked 428th out of 433 players in the NBA. Basically, we should be targeting opposing point guards against the Hawks every night that they are on the schedule. Derrick Rose is a player that we never feel great about targeting, but he is truly an elite tournament play in this matchup. He is also coming off of a solid three-game stretch, averaging 33.4 fantasy points per contest. Carmelo Anthony has a difficult individual matchup against Thabo Sefolosha, but he still grades out as one of the best targets at small forward. He is a borderline elite play tonight. Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah are easy fades given their individual matchups. Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard have two of the best DRPM grades in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,400 $6,300 0.90 31.3 2.0 28.3 5.1 27.6% 2.7% 29 -2.85
Courtney Lee $4,000 $3,800 0.58 30.7 2.5 17.8 -0.2 14.1% -1.6% 23 -0.41
Carmelo Anthony $7,800 $7,600 1.02 34.3 0.7 35.2 5.4 28.7% 2.0% 15 2.69
Kristaps Porzingis $7,700 $7,500 1.01 34.4 -2.0 34.7 -1.0 23.4% 0.3% 8 3.67
Joakim Noah $4,300 $4,000 0.92 21.8 4.7 20.0 4.4 14.1% 0.5% 2 2.54

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony (FD)

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony (DK)

Atlanta Hawks

If the regular season ended today, the Hawks would be the only playoff team that didn’t have a winning record at home. They are looking to improve their home record to 8-7 with a win over the Knicks tonight. This is an exploitable matchup in daily fantasy, as New York is ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Hawks have an implied total of 107 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 5.2 points above their season average.

Dennis Schroder may be one of the worst defenders in the NBA, but he has played well offensively over the last few weeks. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and I’ll never shy away from targeting players against Derrick Rose defense. Kent Bazemore has been so inconsistent this season, but is worth a look on FanDuel ($4,100) if Tim Hardaway is unable to suit up. Hardaway’s absence would also give a small boost to Thabo Sefolosha, who offers decent value as well. Paul Millsap usage goes down when Dwight Howard is on the floor, but luckily his price is all the way down to $7,800 on FanDuel and $7,400 on DraftKings. Dwight Howard absolutely dominated in his first game back from injury, but he only played 21 minutes. I’d like to see him play 28-30 minutes before I target him too heavily in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,800 $6,900 0.95 30.7 1.3 29.2 0.4 29.7% -0.2% 13 -2.15
Kent Bazemore $4,100 $4,700 0.75 27.2 2.0 20.5 -4.8 20.9% -6.0% 28 -0.23
Thabo Sefolosha $4,600 $4,600 0.78 26.1 1.6 20.5 4.5 14.3% 0.1% 18 -1.91
Paul Millsap $7,800 $7,400 1.06 33.3 0.7 35.2 -3.8 24.6% 0.7% 11 1.23
Dwight Howard $8,000 $7,300 1.18 28.9 -7.8 34.1 6.3 20.1% 6.4% 29 1.84
Kyle Korver $3,700 $3,900 0.58 28.0 0.1 16.2 1.6 14.3% 2.0% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore (FD), Thabo Sefolosha, Paul Millsap

Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Detroit Pistons
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 202.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 99.5 Team Total 102.5
Pace +/- -2.8 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Matthew Dellavedova Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 22 4 3 4 9 DvP 11 14 28 19 11
DRPM -1.18 0.54 0.45 1.34 1.89 DRPM 3.87 -0.44 -0.65 -1.62 1.33

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games and are narrowly hanging onto that eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. There is a long way to go, but it’s always fun to see where teams are in the standings. Playing daily fantasy basketball every day takes away most of our interest in how teams are actually doing. The Bucks draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons, who are ranked 27th in pace of play, second in points allowed per game, and sixth in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee has an implied total of only 99.5 points, which is the lowest of any team in the slate tonight. There will be some interest in Giannis Antetkounmpo and Jabari Parker, but both are easy fades in my eyes. The Pistons will likely stick Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on Giannis and they have been very stingy against opposing backcourts.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,300 $10,000 1.37 34.9 -0.8 47.8 4.1 29.7% 0.7% 22 -1.18
Matthew Dellavedova $3,900 $3,800 0.67 28.3 -2.8 19.0 -1.1 19.4% -1.0% 4 0.54
Tony Snell $3,800 $3,500 0.55 29.4 -4.0 16.1 1.7 13.1% 2.4% 3 0.45
Jabari Parker $6,800 $6,900 0.95 33.1 0.5 31.3 1.9 25.6% 0.4% 4 1.34
John Henson $4,300 $4,000 0.91 20.6 0.5 18.8 -5.0 16.9% -1.2% 9 1.89
Greg Monroe $4,800 $4,300 1.18 19.4 1.0 22.8 2.1 23.0% 1.2% 9 N/A
Malcolm Brogdon $3,800 $3,900 0.74 21.8 4.8 16.1 8.6 19.6% -4.5% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have one of the best defenses in the NBA. If their offense would cooperate, they could really make some noise in the soft Eastern Conference. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against a Bucks’ team that is ranked 11th in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency. This game lacks fantasy appeal as a whole, especially when you look at the over/under of only 202 points. The good news for Detroit is that their implied total of 102.5 points is actually 3.8 points above their season average. Reggie Jackson is an interesting tournament play at his price point, but for cash games, I would much rather go down to Austin Rivers or Raymond Felton. Jon Leuer has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games and may not be priced this cheap much longer. He is a borderline elite play in cash games. Andre Drummond is one of my favorite tournament plays in the entire slate. The Bucks are a mediocre rebounding team and Drummond is averaging 8.3 more fantasy points per game at home than he is on the road.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,400 $5,200 0.87 26.5 2.2 23.0 1.6 30.7% 0.4% 11 3.87
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,600 $5,400 0.74 33.5 3.6 24.8 2.2 20.3% -2.1% 14 -0.44
Marcus Morris $4,400 $4,600 0.69 31.9 -0.2 21.9 -1.5 19.7% 0.4% 28 -0.65
Jon Leuer $4,900 $5,000 0.82 26.9 3.4 22.2 1.9 17.2% -0.3% 19 -1.62
Andre Drummond $7,500 $7,100 1.17 30.0 2.4 35.1 0.6 21.9% 0.0% 11 1.33
Tobias Harris $5,600 $5,500 0.79 32.5 -2.9 25.8 3.7 21.4% 0.6% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Jon Leuer, Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (Cash), Reggie Jackson (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers New Orleans Pelicans
laclippersnba Vegas Total 204.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers Jamal Crawford Wesley Johnson Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 28 16 19 27 20 DvP 5 3 19 7 7
DRPM -0.03 -2.75 0.30 2.24 0.37 DRPM -1.91 -2.53 1.95 2.75 2.75

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers have Chris Paul and J.J. Redick listed as game-time decisions tonight, but Doc Rivers said that he doesn’t expect either player to suit up. We should consider them closer to doubtful than questionable. Assuming they are both out again, there will be a ton of minutes to go around for Raymond Felton, Austin Rivers, and Jamal Crawford. Los Angeles draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. Even though their implied total is low, this is one of the best teams to target for value tonight.

With Chris Paul and J.J. Redick out on Monday night, Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford got the starts at point guard and shooting guard. Doc Rivers chose to bring Raymond Felton off the bench, but it really doesn’t matter draws the start. As long as Paul and Redick are out again tonight, Rivers, Crawford, and Felton are all elite value plays in all formats. All three should see 30+ minutes of action and you can make the argument to play all three in cash games, which is what I did on Monday night. This appears to be a favorable matchup for DeAndre Jordan, but his usage and fantasy production are basically the same with and without Paul on the floor.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $4,600 $4,900 0.64 24.4 7.8 15.6 5.0 18.7% 3.9% 28 -0.03
Jamal Crawford $5,000 $5,400 0.71 25.8 6.5 18.2 13.6 23.6% 8.2% 16 -2.75
Wesley Johnson $3,600 $3,000 0.74 13.3 2.9 9.8 2.9 13.0% -2.6% 19 0.30
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,600 $3,800 0.56 23.3 5.2 13.0 5.3 10.7% -0.7% 27 2.24
DeAndre Jordan $7,000 $7,000 0.99 31.5 0.2 31.3 -2.8 14.0% 0.5% 20 0.37
Raymond Felton $4,100 $4,700 0.63 19.0 15.2 12.0 11.1 16.5% 0.8% 28 N/A
Marreese Speights $4,200 $4,200 1.08 16.1 0.5 17.5 0.8 23.1% -2.0% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Raymond Felton (if Paul and Redick are out)

Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan, Marreese Speights

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are only 12-21 on the season, but they have been much better at home than they have been on the road. They come into tonight’s game as 5-point favorites against the Clippers, who are expected to be extremely short-handed. On the season, the Clippers are a top seven defensive team, but we can throw those numbers out the window with Blake Griffin out and Chris Paul expected to miss this game. New Orleans has an implied total of 104.8 points, which is the ninth highest in the slate and two points above their season average.

Everyone is going to see that the Clippers are ranked fifth in DvP against point guards and immediately think to avoid Jrue Holiday. This is where the DRPM comes into play, as we need to adjust Holiday’s matchup if Chris Paul is out. On the season, Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton both have negative DRPM grades. Holiday is a nice tournament play tonight, especially on DraftKings at a price of only $6,300. Outside of Holiday, the other other player on my radar here is Anthony Davis. While some home/road splits in the NBA are noise, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Davis is averaging 16.5 more fantasy points at home than he is on the road. The Clippers will likely stick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on him. While he is a very good defender, Davis is going to have a massive size advantage in the post.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,000 $6,300 0.99 30.4 2.0 30.0 5.3 27.5% -0.6% 5 -1.91
Buddy Hield $3,600 $3,200 0.67 19.0 1.2 12.8 -1.2 21.3% -6.0% 3 -2.53
Dante Cunningham $3,700 $3,200 0.56 23.6 4.1 13.3 0.7 11.6% -2.9% 19 1.95
Anthony Davis $11,300 $11,100 1.41 37.3 -0.9 52.4 4.9 31.4% -0.4% 7 2.75
Alexis Ajinca $3,500 $3,000 0.82 14.7 -1.4 12.1 -4.0 15.4% -5.7% 7 2.75

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious