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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-05 03:27:45

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Orlando Magic
atlantanba Vegas Total 207.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 102.3
Pace +/- -1.1 Pace +/- 1.5
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Jodie Meeks Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 8 15 9 27 DvP 29 23 13 10 3
DRPM -2.04 -1.10 -1.35 0.61 1.40 DRPM -2.53 -0.36 2.81 3.65 2.45

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have fixed whatever issues were plaguing them a few weeks ago. They have won three games in a row and six of their last ten. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on a Magic team that has been involved in a number of shootouts recently. In fact, the last time these two teams played, they combined for 251 points in regulation. This is an exploitable matchup for the Hawks, as the Magic are ranked 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in rebounding differential this season. Atlanta is listed as a 2.5-point favorite with an implied total of 104.8 points.

Dennis Schroder draws one of the best possible matchups for a point guard. D.J. Augustin and Elfrid Payton both have negative Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) grades and the Magic as a whole are ranked 19th against point guards. Schroder has shown a nice level of consistency in his last 15 games and his price is back under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s hard to trust any of the Hawks’ wing players right now, as there are four bodies splitting minutes. Until something changes, I will be avoiding the likes of Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway, and Kyle Korver. Paul Millsap draws a difficult individual matchup against Serge Ibaka, but his price on DraftKings puts him in play in all formats. Dwight Howard may be my favorite play on the Hawks’ side of the ball. He is returning to Orlando to take on his former team. Howard has scored at least 37 fantasy points in two of his last three meetings against the Magic. Howard has also played well when given big minutes, averaging 40.1 fantasy points in games where he has played at least 30 minutes this season. I expect him to crack that mark tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,800 $6,600 0.94 31.1 3.7 29.3 3.0 29.7% 0.3% 19 -2.04
Kent Bazemore $4,000 $4,300 0.74 27.4 1.8 20.2 -3.0 20.9% -1.3% 8 -1.10
Thabo Sefolosha $4,100 $4,000 0.76 25.8 -2.5 19.6 -6.7 14.3% 0.8% 15 -1.35
Paul Millsap $8,200 $7,600 1.06 34.0 7.5 35.9 7.2 24.9% 2.1% 9 0.61
Dwight Howard $7,700 $7,300 1.16 29.4 5.1 34.0 -1.5 19.2% -7.3% 27 1.40

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Paul Millsap (DK)

Orlando Magic

The Magic have won five of their last ten games and are only a game and a half behind the Pacers for eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings. While the Hawks have been stout from a defensive efficiency standpoint, they are ranked 14th in points allowed per game and 19th in fantasy points allowed per game. Orlando comes into tonight’s contest with an implied total of 102.3 points, which is 2.8 points above their season average. This is one of the only games in the slate where both teams have positive point differentials between their implied totals and their season averages.

The plays on the Magic side hinge on the availability of Evan Fournier. If he is able to return to the lineup, he becomes a strong play right out of the gate against a Hawks’ defense that is ranked 23rd against shooting guards this season. If we run the CourtIQ for when Fournier is off the floor, we can see that Serge Ibaka, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton all see significant boosts in and/or fantasy production. Jodie Meeks also sees a massive minutes bump, as he would draw another start and see close to 30 minutes. Nikola Vucevic is always in play for tournaments, but Dwight Howard is one of the best low post defenders in the NBA. Basically, if Fournier is active, I will give a hard look at him in all formats. If he is out, I will consider targeting Meeks, Gordon, Payton, and Ibaka.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $3,500 $3,300 0.74 20.0 -5.4 14.8 -4.6 22.4% 1.4% 29 -2.53
Jodie Meeks $4,500 $4,400 0.75 20.7 7.2 15.6 4.4 18.4% -0.1% 23 -0.36
Aaron Gordon $4,500 $4,600 0.78 26.2 2.0 20.3 3.7 20.1% 1.4% 13 2.81
Serge Ibaka $6,700 $6,500 0.95 30.4 0.5 29.0 3.5 20.6% 4.0% 10 3.65
Bismack Biyombo $4,500 $4,000 0.76 26.0 -4.7 19.8 -5.9 12.7% -2.4% 3 2.45
Nikola Vucevic $7,000 $6,300 1.14 27.9 1.2 31.7 6.9 24.7% 0.4% 3 N/A
Elfrid Payton $6,000 $5,900 0.91 28.7 0.1 26.2 -2.3 24.6% -2.8% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Charlotte Hornets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 209.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 105.8
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Roy Hibbert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 18 24 12 20 DvP 24 2 7 14 5
DRPM -0.99 0.90 1.67 0.66 1.28 DRPM -0.60 0.50 2.14 1.22 1.99

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won six of their last ten games and the way that the Western Conference is shaking out, they will likely end up finishing in the fourth to seventh place range. Tonight they head to Charlotte to take on a Hornets’ defense that is ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Thunder are listed as 2-point underdogs with an implied total of 103.8 points, which is significantly lower than their season average.

Russell Westbrook is going to be one of the top one or two plays on the board every time the Thunder are on the schedule. Unless he is playing the Spurs, Jazz, or Grizzlies, I am going to list him as an elite play (spoiler alert). He is averaging 30 points, ten rebounds, and ten assists per game this season and he draws a nice matchup against Kemba Walker and the Hornets, who don’t have an elite rim protector in their frontcourt. I’m not in love with Victor Oladipo matchup against the likes of Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but we have to be price sensitive in daily fantasy basketball. He is basically $500-$1,000 too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings right now, which puts him in consideration as an elite play at shooting guard. Steven Adams would typically be a nice cash game option in a seven game slate, but I find myself going up to DeMarcus Cousins and Dwight Howard or all the way down to Joakim Noah and Willie Reed. Enes Kanter is a viable play on FanDuel, especially in tournaments. We know that he is a volatile player, but his ownership should come down after his bad outing on Monday night.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $11,800 $12,600 1.65 34.6 -5.2 56.9 -14.0 46.0% -0.8% 16 -0.99
Victor Oladipo $5,400 $5,500 0.77 34.1 -2.2 26.3 -0.9 20.9% -2.0% 18 0.90
Andre Roberson $3,500 $3,400 0.57 30.7 -6.1 17.4 -4.3 10.6% 0.1% 24 1.67
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.63 21.3 2.7 13.5 -1.3 14.5% -2.4% 12 0.66
Steven Adams $5,600 $5,300 0.86 29.5 0.6 25.2 4.7 16.4% -0.3% 20 1.28
Enes Kanter $5,300 $5,200 1.11 20.6 3.0 22.9 -0.6 25.2% -0.6% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter (FD)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are looking to snap their two-game losing streak tonight, as they host the visiting Thunder. While both of these teams are above average in terms of defensive efficiency, the game is expected to be close and high scoring. The Hornets are only listed as 2-point favorites and the over/under is set at a healthy 209.5 points. Charlotte has an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and slightly above their season average.

Kemba Walker averages nearly five more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road this season. While some will point to home/road splits as noise in basketball, I put stock into them when they are a trend year after year and that’s the case with Walker. In addition to the boost of playing at home, Walker also draws an elite matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked 24th against point guards this season. The last time that Walker faced the Thunder at home, he finished with 50.1 fantasy points. Nicolas Batum is an easy fade for me tonight. While his form has been impeccable, he draws a difficult matchup against the likes of Victor Oladipo and Andre Roberson. Marco Belinelli is expected to return tonight, which will cut into the minutes of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb. For now, we can avoid all three players in DFS. I would also typically fade the Hornets’ frontcourt, but Cody Zeller has been ruled out of tonight’s contest. His absence gives a boost to Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky, and Spencer Hawes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,400 $8,200 1.11 33.5 2.9 37.0 9.7 30.2% 0.2% 24 -0.60
Nicolas Batum $7,800 $8,000 0.97 34.8 1.1 33.7 5.1 22.9% 1.7% 2 0.50
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,600 $4,800 0.75 29.1 2.3 21.8 -3.4 14.5% -1.4% 7 2.14
Marvin Williams $4,300 $4,200 0.72 27.2 -0.2 19.6 -1.7 17.1% 1.2% 14 1.22
Roy Hibbert $3,500 $3,000 0.77 15.8 1.0 12.1 -5.9 14.4% -4.0% 5 1.99
Jeremy Lamb $4,000 $4,100 1.01 17.4 5.4 17.5 6.0 22.6% -5.8% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams, Frank Kaminsky

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks New York Knicks
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 212.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread -2.5 Vegas Spread 2.5
Team Total 107.3 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- 1.3 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Lance Thomas Carmelo Anthony Joakim Noah
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 29 14 14 29 DvP 5 14 28 17 8
DRPM -1.87 -0.30 -0.71 -1.74 1.72 DRPM 3.54 -0.18 -0.88 -1.57 1.42

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won six of their last ten games and are within striking distance of being able to host a first round playoff series. Tonight they head to Madison Square Garden to take on the Knicks in a game that has some serious shootout potential. The Knicks have been one of the best matchups for fantasy production all season, as they are ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. The Bucks are listed as 2.5-point favorites with an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 2.3 points above their season average.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is my favorite point-per-dollar play of the five superstars in the slate. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in each of his last 12 games, so he’s really not killing your lineup even on his worst of nights. He has shown 70 fantasy point type of upside and he draws a tremendous matchup against the Knicks, who don’t have anyone that can match up against him. Matthew Dellavedova has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which should result in another start for Malcolm Brogdon. In his three spot starts this season, he has scored 22, 43, and 20 fantasy points. He stands out as an elite play on FanDuel ($4,400) and more of a secondary play on DraftKings ($5,300). Jabari Parker is my favorite power forward target in the slate, as he has been on a tear over his last five games. He will see a nice boost in terms of his matchup if Kristaps Porzingis is unable to suit up. The three Bucks’ players mentioned are all in such good spots that you can play all three in the same lineup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,500 $10,400 1.37 35.2 2.7 48.2 5.4 29.7% -0.7% 14 -1.87
Malcolm Brogdon $4,400 $5,300 0.76 23.2 11.5 17.7 10.7 19.9% -0.5% 29 -0.30
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,600 0.52 29.2 -1.3 15.3 -7.6 12.6% -4.0% 14 -0.71
Jabari Parker $7,200 $7,200 0.96 33.7 6.1 32.3 1.3 25.5% -3.4% 14 -1.74
John Henson $3,900 $3,800 0.90 20.5 -0.2 18.4 -5.8 16.4% -3.4% 29 1.72
Greg Monroe $5,200 $4,800 1.17 20.1 5.0 23.5 1.7 22.9% -0.2% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Parker

Secondary Plays – Greg Monroe

New York Knicks

The Knicks have lost five games in a row and eight of their last ten. If the regular season ended today, they would not find themselves in the playoffs. Hopefully, they will be able to turn it around, as the NBA is in a much better place when the Knicks are relevant. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked eighth in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. The good news is that New York is playing at home and that the game could turn into a shootout. The over/under is currently set at 212 points and the Knicks are only 2.5-point underdogs.

Kristaps Porzingis is being listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. If we run the CourtIQ with him off the floor, we can see that his absence gives a big boost to two players specifically: Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah. Anthony sees a 5.8% usage boost and a 0.16 FP/min boost, while Noah also sees a 0.16 FP/min boost. Those numbers may seem small, but when you extrapolate those over 30-35 minutes, they become huge differences in fantasy production. Assuming Porzingis does indeed sit out tonight, Anthony and Noah will be elite plays at their respective positions. Derrick Rose had a bad night on Monday, but should be able to bounce back against a Bucks’ team that is missing Matthew Dellavedova. I probably wouldn’t look his way in cash games, but Rose makes an excellent GPP option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,600 $6,400 0.90 32.1 3.6 29.0 1.7 28.1% 0.9% 5 3.54
Courtney Lee $4,000 $3,800 0.58 30.8 3.0 17.9 -0.3 14.0% 3.0% 14 -0.18
Lance Thomas $3,500 $3,100 0.47 16.6 6.7 7.8 3.9 13.9% 1.7% 28 -0.88
Carmelo Anthony $7,500 $7,100 1.03 33.4 -2.2 34.3 -2.9 28.6% 1.0% 17 -1.57
Joakim Noah $4,900 $5,000 0.95 22.7 3.1 21.5 5.2 14.2% 2.2% 8 1.42
Willy Hernangomez $3,500 $3,200 0.93 13.7 0.3 12.7 -3.8 18.1% -2.0% 8 N/A
Kyle O’Quinn $4,100 $3,600 1.09 15.1 -3.8 16.5 -6.6 18.5% -3.7% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (Cash)

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers
chicagonba Vegas Total 204.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- -1.7
Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving DeAndre Liggins LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 19 26 12 3 10 DvP 9 17 16 20 17
DRPM -1.77 1.15 1.34 1.99 1.87 DRPM -0.16 -0.03 1.12 1.37 0.10

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games and are in the midst of a point guard controversy. The way I see it, Fred Hoiberg is basically saying that if he is going to end up getting fired, he’s not going to let it happen because of Rajon Rondo. At the moment, Rondo finds himself behind both Michael Carter-Williams and Jerian Grant on the depth chart. I’m not really sure how Vegas set at line for tonight’s game against the Cavaliers because Dwyane Wade, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, and Kevin Love are all questionable. As it stands right now, the Bulls are 5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 99.8 points.

There are a few situations that are automatic in daily fantasy basketball and playing Jimmy Butler when Dwyane Wade is out is becoming a thing. While Wade is off the floor this season, Butler has a usage rate of 35.8% and he averages 50.1 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Those are elite numbers and if Wade is ruled out, we can pencil Butler in as our small forward in cash games. If Wade plays, he and Butler would both become secondary plays at their respective positions. Michael Carter-Williams has not played very well in his two starts, but he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and his price is just too cheap for a starting point guard. He also draws an excellent matchup against the Cavailers, who are ranked 19th against his position. I’m not particularly interested in the Bulls’ frontcourt tonight, although Nikola Mirotic may see a few extra minutes off the bench if the Bulls are in need of some additional scoring against this potent Cavaliers’ offense.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,700 $4,500 0.78 20.3 7.5 15.8 6.4 23.0% -2.6% 19 -1.77
Dwyane Wade $6,700 $6,200 1.03 30.4 -2.7 31.3 -4.6 30.3% 2.2% 26 1.15
Jimmy Butler $9,300 $9,000 1.15 36.6 1.5 42.0 13.1 29.7% 4.8% 12 1.34
Taj Gibson $4,700 $4,500 0.86 27.8 -0.4 23.8 -4.6 19.1% -0.1% 3 1.99
Robin Lopez $4,400 $4,400 0.78 28.2 -4.2 22.0 -5.4 15.8% -2.5% 10 1.87
Nikola Mirotic $4,300 $4,300 0.84 23.2 2.5 19.4 -0.5 19.1% -1.3% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (if Wade is out), Michael Carter-Williams

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (if Wade is active), Nikola Mirotic

Cleveland Cavaliers

As I mentioned above, I don’t know how Vegas made a line for this game without know the availability of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Based on the fact that the Cavaliers are 5-point favorites, you have to think that Vegas expects one or two of the big three to suit up. The problem is that we aren’t going to know who is playing until later in the day. With this game tipping off at 8:00 ET, there is a chance that all three could still be questionable when lineups lock. I’d like to have a better take here, but we really just have to use and wait-and-see approach with Cleveland. We do know that when one of the big three sits out, the other two see a massive boost in both usage and fantasy production. We also know that Jordan McRae, Iman Shumpert, and Channing Frye can provide value when the Cavaliers are short-handed. For now, my advice is to make a plan for each of the various scenarios surrounding James, Irving and Love so that you can react to the news quickly when it comes out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,600 $7,800 1.07 34.7 6.9 37.1 20.9 30.8% -4.1% 9 -0.16
DeAndre Liggins $3,500 $3,000 0.51 15.9 5.7 8.2 3.4 11.4% 0.1% 17 -0.03
LeBron James $10,000 $10,500 1.29 37.2 2.3 48.1 1.3 33.3% 1.5% 16 1.12
Kevin Love $8,500 $8,800 1.21 31.7 0.8 38.3 1.6 27.0% 4.8% 20 1.37
Tristan Thompson $4,800 $4,500 0.79 28.8 1.0 22.7 -4.2 10.0% -0.3% 17 0.10
Jordan McRae $3,900 $4,000 0.70 11.0 12.5 7.7 10.8 21.8% -4.6% 17 N/A
Richard Jefferson $3,700 $3,500 0.51 19.4 2.9 9.9 6.4 12.6% 2.6% 16 N/A
Channing Frye $3,600 $3,600 0.82 18.4 0.8 15.2 -2.4 19.3% -4.8% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors
portlandnba Vegas Total 224.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread 15.5 Vegas Spread -15.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 120.0
Pace +/- 4.2 Pace +/- 1.2
Proj. Starter C.J. McCollum Allen Crabbe Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 13 20 20 18 7 DvP 7 16 27 30 28
DRPM 0.02 -1.46 2.14 4.03 2.86 DRPM -2.41 -1.84 0.23 2.13 0.27

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are expected to be without their star point guard again tonight and with the team playing the Warriors on the road, this has all the makings of a blowout. Portland is listed as a 15.5-point underdog and we have seen the Warriors blow teams out by halftime at home this season. With an implied total of 104.5 points, the Blazers will likely be one of the lowest owned teams in the slate when it comes to DFS. I may not have any exposure to Portland in cash games, but there is certainly a lot of appeal in tournaments. With Lillard off the floor this season, C.J. McCollum has a usage rate of 35.3%. He has also averaged 41.8 fantasy points per game in the last ten contests that Lillard has sat out with an injury. If the Blazers are going to keep this game close, they will need a big game from McCollum. I also like the idea of surrounding him with a value play or two. Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless, Allen Crabbe, and Al-Farouq Aminu could all return value if this game stays relatively close.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
C.J. McCollum $8,000 $8,600 0.98 34.4 1.4 33.6 7.6 27.7% 4.8% 13 0.02
Allen Crabbe $3,800 $4,200 0.56 28.9 6.5 16.1 4.3 14.0% -1.0% 20 -1.46
Maurice Harkless $4,800 $4,700 0.72 31.0 0.2 22.2 -1.8 16.0% -3.7% 20 2.14
Al-Farouq Aminu $4,100 $4,300 0.69 26.4 5.1 18.3 0.5 14.7% -2.6% 18 4.03
Mason Plumlee $6,300 $5,700 1.04 27.4 -1.0 28.4 0.6 20.2% 0.2% 7 2.86
Evan Turner $4,900 $4,900 0.78 25.4 3.9 19.7 2.5 19.8% -0.4% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – C.J. McCollum (GPP)

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum (Cash), Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless, Allen Crabbe, Al-Farouq Aminu

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are always one of the toughest teams to predict. They are typically massive favorites (especially at home) and they have four legitimate superstars that are all capable of scoring 50 fantasy points on any given night. They draw a tremendous matchup tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Warriors come into the game as 15.5-point favorites with a ridiculously high implied total of 120 points. As I mention time and time again in this article, I don’t factor in potential blowouts for the favored team nearly as much as I do for the underdog.

Stephen Curry has not played well recently, averaging only 34 fantasy points per game in his last three. Granted, he has a great matchup and his price is the most appealing, but he’s my least favorite of the four superstars from Golden State tonight. Klay Thompson is averaging over 35 fantasy points in his last three games and draws a nice matchup against Allen Crabbe, who has a DRPM of -1.84 this season. Thompson relies on scoring for most of his production though, which gives him a volatility to his game that is best suited for tournaments. Kevin Durant and Draymond Green are the best cash game targets here. If I had to give an edge to one over the other, it would be green. Not only are the Blazers ranked 30th against power forwards, but there are a number of viable small forward targets in this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $8,200 $8,300 1.16 33.3 0.5 38.5 -4.5 28.9% -2.7% 7 -2.41
Klay Thompson $6,900 $6,600 0.87 34.1 1.7 29.6 6.6 23.9% -0.5% 16 -1.84
Kevin Durant $9,900 $9,600 1.35 34.2 1.8 46.1 -3.0 27.9% -2.2% 27 0.23
Draymond Green $7,900 $7,500 1.12 32.9 0.5 36.8 0.6 19.6% 1.1% 30 2.13
Zaza Pachulia $3,700 $3,300 0.89 17.7 0.8 15.8 -0.4 14.6% 4.1% 28 0.27
Andre Iguodala $3,500 $3,400 0.67 24.8 0.3 16.5 -1.5 12.1% -1.2% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious