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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-17 02:42:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Cleveland Cavaliers
dallasnba Vegas Total 209.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 109.3
Team Pace 96.60 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 19 6 3 1 1 Opp. Season 13 9 8 27 19
Last 3 Weeks 22 8 6 1 4 Last 3 Weeks 18 13 9 20 28

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 34-33 — Road: 15-17 — Last 10: 4-6

The Mavericks have lost six of their last ten games and draw one of their toughest matchups to date tonight. They are listed as 9.5-point underdogs tonight against the Cavaliers, who own a top five defense. Dallas is only projected to score 99.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board. They also have the third lowest projected point differential at -2.7.

The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked third in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Mavericks come into this game completely healthy, but given their low team total, they are an easy fade tonight. Deron Williams could be worth a look in tournaments, but he should not be used in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 47-19 — Home: 27-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers have won six of their last ten games and should be able to hold on to the one seed in the Eastern Conference. They are sizable favorites tonight against the Mavericks at home. Cleveland is projected to score 109.3 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board. They also have the fourth highest projected point differential at +5.7.

The Mavericks are a neutral matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked between 14th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Tyronn Lue has mentioned that he will rest players down the stretch of the regular season, but since this game is the first one to tip off, we will know beforehand if any of the Cavaliers are going to sit tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

LeBron James
lebron-james-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.33
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 35.6 -0.2 35.3 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 44.3 44.7 0.4 42.1 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 27.3 -0.2 26.4 -1.0

I’m never going to talk anyone out of playing James at a price under $10,000. He’s not in a bad spot tonight at home against the Mavericks, but the Cavaliers have been a difficult team to predict with their big three healthy. James is only averaging 42.1 fantasy points over his last five games, which is 2.1 points below his season average. If I’m spending up at small forward tonight, I’d rather pay a little extra and target Kevin Durant against the Celtics.

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Washington Wizards
chicagonba Vegas Total 212.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 100.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter E’Twaun Moore Justin Holiday Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Taj Gibson Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 15 22 26 6 9 Opp. Season 28 15 25 24 27
Last 3 Weeks 17 9 15 3 12 Last 3 Weeks 29 20 19 30 23

Chicago Bulls

Record: 33-32 — Road: 12-20 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games and are only one game above .500 on the season. They are fighting for their playoff lives, but are listed as 6-point underdogs tonight against the Wizards. Chicago is only projected to score 103 points, which is the seventh lowest team total on the board.

The Wizards present a slightly favorable matchup for the Bulls, as they are ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. The main reason that we want to target Chicago tonight is thanks to their injuries. Pau Gasol has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Derrick Rose is listed as a game-time decision.

Elite Plays

Taj Gibson
taj-gibson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$4,900
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 29.0 2.1 31.2 4.3
FPPG (FD) 21.2 24.3 3.2 25.1 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 11.9 12.9 1.0 11.6 -0.3

Ever since I started playing daily fantasy basketball, the general rule of thumb has been to play Gibson when one of the Bulls’ bigs was hurt. It applied to when Joakim Noah or Carlos Boozer was out a few years ago and it still applies when Pau Gasol is out. Gibson should be a safe bet to play minutes in the low to mid-30s and even though the matchup is less than ideal, his price more than makes up for it. Gibson is a safe play in all league formats tonight.

Nikola Mirotic
nikola-mirotic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.9 23.0 -0.9 23.0 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 21.3 21.1 -0.1 21.1 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 16.1 -1.1 16.1 -1.1

I wish we would have known that Mirotic was going to start earlier in the day on Monday. I would have featured him in the Grind Down. Even though Mike Dunleavy is expected to play tonight, we can still pencil in Mirotic for around 30 minutes tonight against the Wizards. His game has some volatility to it, but he provides great upside for the price. If you are deciding between Gibson and Mirotic tonight, I’d give the edge to Taj in cash games and Nikola in GPPs.

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler
jimmy-butler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.7 34.0 -3.7 34.0 -3.7
FPPG (FD) 37.7 37.6 -0.1 37.6 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 24.5 2.4 24.5 2.4

The Bulls say that they have a “plan” for Butler’s minutes, but they played him 34 the other night against the Raptors. They have been known to break their minute restrictions and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Butler play 35+ minutes tonight in an important game for Chicago. I like Butler more if Derrick Rose (GTD) is ruled out though, as Butler’s usage jumps from 24.8 to 31.1 when Rose is not in the lineup.

Washington Wizards

Record: 31-35 — Home: 17-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and look primed to make a playoff push. A win over the Bulls tonight would go a long way in helping to accomplish that goal. They are listed as 6-point favorites tonight at home. Washington is projected to score 109 points, which is the eighth highest team total on the board. They also have the third highest projected point differential at +6.1.

The Bulls are always a team that we like to take players against. Despite being ranked 15th in points allowed per game, they are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed per game. Bradley Beal is questionable for tonight’s game. His availability doesn’t make a huge difference tonight, as I will be avoiding the Wizards’ wing players regardless.

Elite Plays

John Wall
john-wall-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,400 Salary:$9,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 35.8 -0.1 36.4 0.5
FPPG (FD) 42.0 44.1 2.1 43.3 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 24.8 26.3 1.4 26.8 1.9

Point guards destroy the Bulls and they have all season. In recent memory, we have seen Kyle Lowry and Tony Parker both have big outings against Chicago. There is no reason not to like Wall tonight. He has good career splits at home, the matchup is in his favor, and he has been in tremendous form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 44.1 fantasy points with a turnover-adjusted usage rate of 26.3. He is an elite play regardless, but I would give Wall a slight boost if Bradley Beal is unable to suit up.

Secondary Plays

Marcin Gortat
marcin-gortat-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.2 26.1 -4.1 23.5 -6.7
FPPG (FD) 29.9 27.5 -2.4 24.0 -6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 15.7 15.3 -0.4 15.8 0.1

Gortat is an excellent tournament play tonight. For cash game purposes, there are basically four centers on my radar – DeMarcus Cousins (FanDuel), Dwight Howard, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Andre Drummond. We may see Gortat at less than 10% owned, which is crazy considering his matchup against the depleted Bulls’ frontcourt. Taj Gibson is not a center and the Bulls don’t really have anyone else that can match up with him down low or keep him off the glass.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics – 7:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Boston Celtics
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 220.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 112.0 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 101.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Evan Turner Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 8 21 26 26 Opp. Season 23 19 10 9 5
Last 3 Weeks 4 11 28 13 21 Last 3 Weeks 27 6 14 29 14

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 45-22 — Road: 18-13 — Last 10: 4-6

The Thunder have lost six of their last ten games, but are still 45-22 overall. Despite their poor play, they still hold a two and a half game lead over the Clippers for the three seed in the Western Conference. Tonight’s game against the Celtics should be a fun one, as both of these teams like to push the pace. Oklahoma City is projected to score 112 points, which is the third highest team total on the board.

The Celtics are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency, but are ranked 13th in points allowed per game thanks to their quick pace of play. The Thunder have one of the best offenses in the NBA and I expect them to put up a lot of points tonight. As usual with the Thunder, there are only two players on my radar here.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$10,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.55
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 36.7 2.0 35.9 1.2
FPPG (FD) 49.2 48.9 -0.3 46.9 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 27.0 -1.4 23.5 -4.9

Defense vs. Position has its merits in DFS, but it should never be the sole decision-maker. My guess is that everyone will see that the Celtics are elite at defending point guards and immediately look to avoid Westbrook tonight. What I see, is a matchup for Westrook against a much small Isaiah Thomas. He is also facing a Celtics’ team that doesn’t have an elite rim protector in a game that is expected to be played at a very fast pace. I still have DeMarcus Cousins as my top overall play, but don’t sleep on Westbrook tonight.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,300 Salary:$10,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.39
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.1 36.6 0.5 35.5 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 45.8 50.5 4.7 44.9 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.5 1.6 27.0 1.1

Durant is my favorite small forward on the slate tonight. LeBron James is in a decent spot, but there is the potential for a blowout against the Mavericks. Durant, on the other hand, is facing the Celtics in a game that features a spread of only four points. Durant also sees a small boost with Jae Crowder out. It will be interesting to see if the Celtics start Marcus Smart and put Avery Bradley on Durant or if they stick Evan Turner on him from the get-go. Either way, Durant should get his tonight.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Boston Celtics

Record: 39-28 — Home: 23-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are 11 games above .500 overall. This is an important game for Boston, as they are fighting with the Heat, Hawks, and Hornets for playoff seeding. The Celtics are projected to score 108 points, which is surprisingly only the ninth highest team total on the board.

The Thunder are a pretty neutral matchup for fantasy production. They are ranked between tenth and 15th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Jae Crowder remains out for Boston, which gives a boost to Marcus Smart and Evan Turner. Whichever player draws the start in Crowder’s absence would become a viable fantasy option tonight. Neither player is featured below, but keep that in mind when making lineups tonight. Kelly Olynyk is listed as day-to-day. If he is out again, give a small boost to Jared Sullinger.

Court IQ with Jae Crowder off the floor:

ScreenShot2016-03-16at10.53.22AM

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.09 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 32.4 0.0 34.3 1.9
FPPG (FD) 35.4 36.3 0.9 39.8 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 27.4 1.4 25.9 -0.1

I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down that Thomas was one of my favorite plays on DraftKings. I ended up talking myself off of him, which was obviously the wrong move. I’m not going to make that mistake again tonight. Thomas is still way too cheap on DraftKings at a price of only $7,300. He has been in great form recently, averaging 39.8 fantasy points over his last five games. He also draws an elite matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked 23rd against point guards. Plus, as you can see above, Thomas has a usage rate of 32 when Jae Crowder is off of the floor.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.18
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.1 27.1 3.0 28.3 4.2
FPPG (FD) 26.7 33.3 6.6 35.3 8.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.8 20.1 1.3 21.3 2.5

Sullinger is starting to become a sharp play in the industry, even in cash games. He produces at an elite level, as he averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute. The biggest concern has been his playing time. However, with Jae Crowder out, the Celtics aren’t going to play a lot of small ball and there is a good chance that Kelly Olynyk could sit tonight as well. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his matchup against a tough frontcourt of the Thunder.

Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Orlando Magic Charlotte Hornets
orlandonba Vegas Total 211.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 97.90 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter C.J. Watson Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opp. Season 12 12 22 23 11 Opp. Season 22 7 17 19 13
Last 3 Weeks 10 5 25 10 9 Last 3 Weeks 23 16 4 25 25

Orlando Magic

Record: 29-37 — Road: 11-21 — Last 10: 4-6

The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and are now eight games below .500 this season. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Hornets in what should be a fairly uptempo game. Orlando has a low team total though, which gives us cause for concern. They also have the fourth lowest projected point differential at -0.2.

The Hornets have a better defense than most realize, as they are ranked tenth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency this season. There hasn’t been an update on Nikola Vucevic or Elfrid Payton yet, but for now, we will assume that they are both doubtful for tonight’s game. If they are both out again, it will be tempting to play three Magic players again tonight. However, given the fact that they are 10-point underdogs and playing in a back-to-back, I’d limit it to one or two players.

Court IQ with Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton off the floor:

ScreenShot2016-03-16at10.58.08AM

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 34.0 1.8 35.3 3.1
FPPG (FD) 28.7 31.3 2.6 36.1 7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 20.3 0.7 21.2 1.6

Oladipo is coming off of yet another big fantasy outing last night against the Nuggets. Over his last five games, he is averaging 36.1 fantasy points in over 35 minutes per contest. As you can see from the Court IQ table above, Oladipo has a 27% usage rate this season when Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton are both off of the floor. The upside is there with Oladipo, but as I mentioned above, the high spread does concern me a little.

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,900
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 32.6 0.6 36.4 4.4
FPPG (FD) 23.1 25.0 1.9 30.1 7.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 17.7 0.8 18.9 2.1

Fournier also comes into tonight’s game in excellent form, averaging 30.1 fantasy points in 36 minutes per game in his last five outings. He also sees a nice usage boost with Nikola Vucevic and Elfrid Payton out (24). The price is more than playable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked 22nd against small forwards this season.

Brandon Jennings
brandon-jennings-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.5 15.0 -2.5 17.5 0.0
FPPG (FD) 13.9 11.8 -2.1 18.1 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.7 19.8 1.1 20.8 2.1

When it was announced that Jennings would start last night, I knew that I was going to be on the wrong side of him. Whether I used him or not, I just knew that he would burn me. It’s always difficult to trust inconsistent players that are coached by Scott Skiles. Jennings is an elite play tonight though, assuming he stays in the lineup. His upside more than makes up for his low floor.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 37-29 — Home: 25-10 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hornets are playing some great basketball. They have won eight of their last ten games and are now 37-29 overall. Tonight they host what will likely be a short-handed Magic team that is playing their second game in as many nights. Charlotte is projected to score 110.8 points in this matchup, which gives them the highest projected point differential at +7.6.

The Magic are a slightly favorable matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked between 14th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories above. They are playing short-handed and on tired legs though, which helps explain why the Hornets have such a high team total. Give the Charlotte offense a sizable boost as a whole tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$8,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 36.5 0.5 36.4 0.4
FPPG (FD) 36.9 42.6 5.6 43.6 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 23.3 25.3 2.0 24.8 1.5

If Walker was cheaper, I would have him listed as an elite play. However, I try to avoid paying a premium for players that are in potential blowouts. There is just too much that can go wrong. He is certainly a strong GPP play tonight, though. He has been on fire over his last ten games, averaging 42.6 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a terrific matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 22nd against point guards this season.

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$7,500
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 36.7 1.1 37.8 2.2
FPPG (FD) 30.9 31.8 0.9 35.6 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 16.7 -0.7 17.8 0.5

Batum is in the same boat as Kemba Walker – he is just a little too expensive to use in cash games tonight. The upside is obviously there against a turnover-prone Magic team, but I will only be using Batum as a risk/reward play in tournaments. He has a high ceiling, but has a bad habit of disappearing for a quarter at a time.

Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Atlanta Hawks Detroit Pistons
atlantanba Vegas Total 197.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 0.0 Vegas Sprd 0.0
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 9 10 4 14 8 Opp. Season 5 17 13 15 24
Last 3 Weeks 7 16 21 12 5 Last 3 Weeks 1 7 3 6 16

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 38-29 — Road: 17-17 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hawks have won seven of their last ten games and are making a push to host a first round series in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in a game that has the lowest total on the board tonight. Atlanta is only projected to score 98.5 points. Not only is that the second lowest team total, but it also gives them the lowest projected point differential at -3.6.

The Pistons are better defensively than most people realize. They are ranked 11th in points allowed per game, fourth in rebounding differential, and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. With such a low team total, the Hawks are looking like an easy fade tonight. Even though the game should stay close, it will be a low-scoring, slow-paced affair.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 33.1 0.5 33.6 1.0
FPPG (FD) 36.9 35.6 -1.3 39.7 2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 19.1 -1.1 19.3 -0.9

The Hawks have been a tough team to target recently. They have slowed their pace of play down and have focused on their play on the defensive end of the floor. They obviously don’t care about the fantasy community. While I probably won’t be targeting Millsap tonight, his recent form deserves recognition. Over his last five games, he is averaging 39.7 fantasy points per contest. He also sees a nice matchup boost, as he doesn’t get to face smaller power forwards (Tobias Harris) very often.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 34-33 — Home: 19-11 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s game against the Hawks is set at a pick ‘em, which means neither team is favored. Detroit is only projected to score 98.5 points, which gives them the second lowest projected point differential tonight at -3.2.

The Hawks have quietly become a top six or seven defense in the NBA. They are now ranked sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. With such a low total in this game, the masses will be looking to fade this game completely. While I will be doing the same for the most part, the Hawks are ranked 28th in rebounding differential and the Pistons happen to have one of the best rebounders in the NBA.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.20 FP/Min:1.29
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.2 29.9 -3.3 29.1 -4.1
FPPG (FD) 39.9 35.9 -4.0 33.1 -6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 19.1 -1.2 18.2 -2.1

It will be interesting to see how the ownership shakes out tonight at center (especially on FanDuel). On DraftKings, it is looking like a two-center night once again. Drummond is one of my favorite plays of the bunch, as the Hawks have the third worst rebounding differential in the NBA. Drummond has a great track record against Atlanta. In their last three meetings, he has scored 44, 49, and 48 fantasy points.

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious