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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 16th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-16 20:18:38

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Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Memphis Grizzlies
minnesotanba Vegas Total 208.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd -2.5 Vegas Sprd 2.5
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 97.60 Team Pace 95.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Briante Weber Tony Allen Matt Barnes JaMychal Green Ryan Hollins
Opp. Season 8 3 14 11 4 Opp. Season 20 20 19 10 7
Last 3 Weeks 11 10 16 19 22 Last 3 Weeks 14 25 30 22 10

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 21-46 — Road: 10-24 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wolves have not played well on the road this season, but they get to face a short-handed Grizzlies’ team tonight. This is a rare occasion where Minnesota is favored away from home. The Wolves are projected to score 105.5 points, which is 4.1 points above their scoring average on the season.

The Grizzlies’ defensive numbers can largely be ignored, as they are basically missing half of their team right now. We should consider this a slightly favorable matchup for the Wolves, even though this could be a pace-down game. Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins are both fine plays at shooting guard, but Tony Allen and Matt Barnes are both capable defenders. My plan is to look elsewhere at shooting guard.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$8,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.14 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.1 34.6 3.5 37.2 6.1
FPPG (FD) 35.3 38.1 2.8 40.0 4.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.2 20.4 0.2 20.1 -0.1

Towns is another center that I absolutely love tonight. Don’t be fooled by the DvP ranking of the Grizzlies. They don’t have anyone that can match up with Towns. He has been tremendous in his last ten games, averaging 38.1 fantasy points per contest. He is a double-double machine that should absolutely feast on the depleted frontcourt of Memphis.

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio
ricky-rubio-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.06
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.8 1.1 32.1 1.4
FPPG (FD) 30.5 31.4 0.9 35.7 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 16.0 -0.4 16.2 -0.3

There are a number of cheap plays at point guard and then we have Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and John Wall if you want to pay up. Rubio should get overlooked by the masses, even though he has scored 94 fantasy points in his last two games combined. He makes a nice tournament play tonight against the Grizzlies, as he will match up against the likes of Briante Weber and Ray McCallum.

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 39-28 — Home: 24-10 — Last 10: 5-5

The Grizzlies have somehow managed to win five of their last ten games, although they are coming off of back-to-back blowouts. They should be more competitive tonight at home against the Wolves. The Grizzlies’ team total of 103 points may not seem high, but given all of the injuries, it opens the door for some great value plays.

The Wolves are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in defensive efficiency this season. Looking below, you can see how hobbled the Grizzlies are right now. The most important piece of injury news is that Lance Stephenson was able to go through shoot-around this morning. He is listed as questionable, but I expect him to play tonight. Briante Weber and Ray McCallum have been popular value plays, but if you are going cheap at point guard, I prefer Brandon Jennings or Marcus Smart.

Court IQ with all of the Grizzlies’ injuries:

ScreenShot2016-03-16at11.19.34AM

Elite Plays

Lance Stephenson
lance-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,500
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.79
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.8 25.4 7.6 29.2 11.4
FPPG (FD) 13.1 25.1 12.0 31.5 18.5
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 21.9 6.9 23.9 8.9

The most glaring statistic in the Court IQ table above is that Stephenson has a usage rate of 29 when the current injured Grizzlies are off the floor. He made it through shoot-around this morning and is tentatively expected to play tonight. As long as he is cleared to play, he should be considered an elite play in all league formats. He has scored 52 and 36 fantasy points in his last two games.

Secondary Plays

JaMychal Green
jamychal-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.0 25.7 8.7 32.8 15.8
FPPG (FD) 13.6 21.8 8.2 28.9 15.3
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 18.4 3.4 19.9 4.9

I probably won’t be looking his way in cash games, but Green is one of my favorite GPP plays tonight. Everyone will be off of him after two terrible outings. It’s hard to put too much stock into those games though, as the Grizzlies were blown out in both contests. We have seen what Green can do when given extended minutes and his price has come down across the industry.

Matt Barnes
matt-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 32.0 4.5 32.2 4.7
FPPG (FD) 20.9 24.4 3.5 29.7 8.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 17.9 3.4 22.2 7.6

If Lance Stephenson is ruled out, I’d probably move Barnes up to an elite play. Either way, Barnes should see a boost in both minutes and usage over his season average. He has great upside when his shot is falling and he draws a nice matchup against the Wolves, who have allowed the most fantasy points to small forwards over the last three weeks of play.

Tony Allen
tony-allen-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$5,000
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.9 29.1 4.2 29.1 4.2
FPPG (FD) 17.6 25.5 7.9 25.5 7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 13.1 19.2 6.1 19.2 6.1

Allen is more of a tournament play tonight, but at $4,500 on FanDuel, you could certainly do a lot worse in cash games. He should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Wolves and he is playing at home. Allen isn’t the most gifted offensive player, but he can rack up the blocks and steals, which gives him nice upside at his price point.

Los Angeles Clippers at Houston Rockets – 9:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Houston Rockets
laclippersnba Vegas Total 215.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 106.0 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Jeff Green DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 14 23 30 29 17 Opp. Season 6 5 12 8 20
Last 3 Weeks 9 22 23 18 7 Last 3 Weeks 16 1 26 23 20

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 42-24 — Road: 20-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Clippers have lost five of their last ten games, but still have an outside chance of catching the Thunder for the three seed in the Western Conference. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, as they take on the Rockets in Houston. This should be a close, high-scoring game, which is always what we like to see for fantasy purposes.

Saying that the Rockets are a favorable matchup is an understatement. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Clippers are projected to score 106 points tonight, which is slightly higher than their scoring average on the season. While I generally try to get as much exposure to the Rockets’ defense as possible, none of the Clippers stand out as must plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,100 Salary:$9,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.34
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 34.0 0.7 32.5 -0.8
FPPG (FD) 41.6 47.9 6.3 45.4 3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.6 24.7 0.2 24.9 0.3

Paul had a monster game against the Rockets in their last meeting, scoring 62 fantasy points. Other than that, he hasn’t had the best success against Houston, as he failed to top the 45 fantasy point mark in each of their previous five meetings. With Russell Westbrook and John Wall in such great spots tonight, I’m only going to use Paul in GPPs. The upside is there, but the Rockets have actually been pretty tough on point guards this season.

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.1 34.4 0.3 35.5 1.4
FPPG (FD) 35.4 36.8 1.4 37.8 2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 12.1 13.1 1.0 11.8 -0.3

Jordan is in the same boat as Marcin Gortat. Even though he is in a great spot, he is going to go massively under-owned thanks to all of the great plays at center tonight. Jordan has really played well against the Rockets over the last two seasons, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in all six of their meetings. Jordan makes a great pivot off of the more popular center plays tonight in tournaments.

Houston Rockets

Record: 34-33 — Home: 18-14 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets have won six of their last ten games and are currently clinging onto the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Tonight they host the Clippers in a game that features a low spread of 3.5-points. The Rockets are projected to score 109.5 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board and 3.4 points above their scoring average.

Even though the Rockets have a high team total, this matchup may not be as good as it appears. The Clippers have quietly become a top ten defense in the NBA. They are now ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game.

Elite Plays

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$7,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 33.7 1.1 32.6 0.0
FPPG (FD) 34.5 36.9 2.4 38.2 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.3 16.2 0.9 14.6 -0.7

Howard looks motivated and engaged. When we can count on 100% effort, we can generally rely on him in DFS. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, averaging 38.2 fantasy points over his last five games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Clippers, who have not been great against centers this season. In his last three meetings against DeAndre Jordan, Howard is averaging 26 points and 20 rebounds per game.

Secondary Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,300 Salary:$10,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.6 38.6 1.0 35.8 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 46.6 48.8 2.2 46.3 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 28.7 1.2 28.4 0.9

For whatever reason, Harden hasn’t been able to figure out this Clippers’ defense. They are quick to double him and without the ball in his hands, he is not nearly as dangerous. That’s not to say that Harden can’t play well tonight, but he has averaged under 40 fantasy points per game in his last seven meetings against the Clippers. That’s just not the type of production that we are looking for from a player that is priced above $10,000.

New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Sacramento Kings
neworleansnba Vegas Total 221.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 109.3 Team Proj. 112.3
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 102.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Toney Douglas Alonzo Gee Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Darren Collison Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 24 29 23 30 15 Opp. Season 16 26 18 17 29
Last 3 Weeks 25 18 27 28 1 Last 3 Weeks 20 30 29 20 24

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 24-42 — Road: 7-27 — Last 10: 2-8

The Pelicans have lost eight of their last ten games and are one of the many teams that are playing short-handed here in the last month of the season. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what should be a high scoring game. New Orleans is projected to score 109.3 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board. They also have the second highest projected point differential at +6.5.

The Kings are the best matchup in daily fantasy basketball. They allow more points per game than any team in the NBA and they also play at the fastest pace. That is a recipe for fantasy goodness. The Pelicans’ offense sees a sizable boost as a whole in this matchup. The one injury to monitor here is Norris Cole. He is listed as questionable, after missing the last four games with a back injury. Ryan Anderson is not featured below, but he makes a nice tournament play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis
anthony-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,100 Salary:$10,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 37.1 1.2 37.3 1.4
FPPG (FD) 44.5 46.0 1.5 49.1 4.5
TO-Adj. Usage 24.7 26.8 2.2 28.2 3.6

So far, I’d say that I have had a largely successful NBA season. That is in no part thanks to the Brow. If you look at ownership levels, I have been massively overweight on him this season. I try not to hold grudges though, and tonight is a good spot for Davis to pay off his backers. Despite scoring around ten fantasy points in the first half against the Kings a couple of weeks back, he finished with 47.5. His minutes, usage, and production are all up over his last five games and the Kings are ranked dead last against power forwards this season.

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$8,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.6 32.8 5.2 34.3 6.7
FPPG (FD) 29.7 34.7 5.0 37.2 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 25.6 0.5 27.0 1.9

Holiday is coming off of back-to-back duds. He may be off of some people’s radar tonight, but don’t let that two-game stretch fool you. He has an elite usage rate and his minutes have been trending in the right direction over the last couple of weeks. He had close to 50 fantasy points against the Kings in their last meeting and he should shred their defense again tonight.

Secondary Plays

Toney Douglas
toney-douglas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 17.1 21.8 4.7 31.3 14.2
FPPG (FD) 13.2 17.4 4.1 25.8 12.6
TO-Adj. Usage 15.9 16.8 0.9 17.3 1.5

This pick hinges on the availability of Norris Cole. If Cole is out, Douglas would draw another start and be a viable value play at point guard. He has played well recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He does have some volatility to his game though, which is why I would only use him in tournaments.

Sacramento Kings

Record: 26-40 — Home: 14-19 — Last 10: 2-8

The Kings stumbled a bit in the fourth quarter last night against the Lakers, but held on to get the win. They have a quick turnaround tonight, as they host the Pelicans. This game features a total of 221.5 points, which suggests that there will be very little defense featured tonight. The Kings are projected to score 112.3 points, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Pelicans aren’t quite as bad as the Kings defensively, but they aren’t far behind. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Sacramento’s offense is in a great spot again tonight and I don’t mind pairing two or three of them together in the same lineup.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins
demarcus-cousins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,100 Salary:$10,600
Position:C Position:PF
FP/Min:1.38 FP/Min:1.50
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 36.4 1.7 37.0 2.3
FPPG (FD) 48.0 51.3 3.4 55.3 7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 29.4 30.7 1.3 29.0 -0.4

We’ve mentioned a number of centers that have good track records against their opponents – Drummond vs. the Hawks, Howard vs. the Clippers, and Jordan vs. the Rockets. None have the track record of Cousins vs. the Pelicans, though. In his last five games against New Orleans, he has scored 71, 70, 46, 53, and 70 fantasy points. I’m not worried about the back-to-back. Cousins is my favorite play in tonight’s slate.

Rajon Rondo
rajon-rondo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.05 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.4 37.7 2.3 37.6 2.2
FPPG (FD) 37.3 34.6 -2.7 31.1 -6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 16.5 -0.7 15.8 -1.4

Rondo got off to a hot start last night against the Lakers. While he eventually cooled off, he still finished with 36 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. He should have another nice outing tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 16th against point guards this season. I love both point guards in this matchup, but would side with Jrue Holiday if I had to pick one.

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay
rudy-gay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.0 35.2 1.2 35.5 1.5
FPPG (FD) 30.1 24.3 -5.8 28.2 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 18.5 14.2 -4.3 15.6 -2.9

Gay broke out of his slump with a nice game against the Lakers last night. Even though it was an easy matchup, he should have some confidence heading into tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans. Gay is just a little too cheap across the industry and is a borderline elite play in all league formats. New Orleans is ranked 29th against small forwards over the last three weeks of play.

Darren Collison
darren-collison-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,300 Salary:$5,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 33.6 4.3 36.8 7.5
FPPG (FD) 22.5 24.6 2.1 26.2 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 14.5 -2.3 15.6 -1.2

Collison continues to see minutes in the mid-30s as a starter and he should continue to make a nice fantasy play moving forward. He has been inconsistent recently, but I’m not too concerned. He is still a little too cheap for the number of minutes that he is playing. On the season, he is averaging 0.77 fantasy points per minute.

New York Knicks at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

New York Knicks Golden State Warriors
newyorknba Vegas Total 221.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Sprd 15.5 Vegas Sprd -15.5
Team Proj. 103.0 Team Proj. 118.5
Team Pace 95.90 Team Pace 102.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 27 13 11 12 22 Opp. Season 18 16 9 6 18
Last 3 Weeks 24 19 11 16 15 Last 3 Weeks 15 26 7 5 13

New York Knicks

Record: 28-40 — Road: 12-22 — Last 10: 4-6

The Knicks have not been playing their best basketball over the last month or so. Tonight they head to Oracle Arena to take on the Warriors in a game that has blowout written all over it. The Knicks are 15.5-point underdogs, which is easily the highest spread on the board tonight.

The Warriors are a team that we can target players against when we expect the game to be competitive. They are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game this season. The problem is that I don’t expect the Knicks to keep this game close. There are enough games on the schedule that we don’t need to take the risk with New York tonight. If you want to take a contrarian approach in tournaments, feel free to pair Carmelo Anthony with a Warriors’ player or two.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Golden State Warriors

Record: 60-6 — Home: 31-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors are a perfect 31-0 at home and I’m going to go out on a limb and say that their streak will not be ending tonight against the Knicks. Golden State has the highest team total on the board at 118.5 points, but the 15.5-point spread is concerning.

The Knicks are a mediocre matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked between tenth and 19th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While I expect the Warriors’ offense to have success in this matchup, I’m finding plays that I like better in other games. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are fine GPP plays, but I will be avoiding both in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious