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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-02 04:14:42

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

New York Knicks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Orlando Magic
newyorknba Vegas Total 215.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 0.5
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Kyle O’Quinn Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 26 18 9 12 24 Adj. DvP 8 21 28 25 26
DRPM -1.00 -0.93 -1.16 -0.82 2.10 DRPM -3.06 -1.14 -1.92 1.64 0.80

New York Knicks

The Knicks and Magic are two teams that have little to play for at this point of the season, but tonight’s game should be a good one to target for fantasy production. We have a low spread of two points and the over/under is set at a healthy 215 points. The Magic have struggled defensively this season, ranking 18th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even though the game is being playing in Orlando, the Knicks still have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

With Brandon Jennings waived, the minutes for Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee have never been more secure. In the Knicks’ last game, Rose played 40 minutes and scored 30 fantasy points, whicle Lee played 41 minutes and scored 36 fantasy points. Both guards are in play tonight against a Magic team that is ranked 26th and 18th in adjusted DvP against point guards and shooting guards. I slightly prefer Rose on FanDuel and Lee on DraftKings given their price points. Carmelo Anthony is priced up across the industry, but he may be asked to play 36-38 minutes with all of the injuries to the Knicks’ frontcourt. Anthony is a viable play in all formats, although I don’t consider him a building block in this slate. Kristaps Porzingis is expected to return to the lineup tonight. The Knicks will need as many minutes as they can get out of him with Joakim Noah and Willy Hernangomez ruled out. Porzingis is more of a GPP play at this point, given his inconsistency over the last month of play. Kyle O’Quinn chalk never seems to work out in our favor, but he is going to draw the start and play at minimum 25 minutes. He is averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute this season and if he stays out of foul trouble, he could crack the 30-minute mark. He grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar plays in the entire slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,300 $6,300 0.88 32.4 3.0 28.6 0.2 27.8% -2.9% 26 -1.00
Courtney Lee $4,900 $4,600 0.61 31.5 3.6 19.2 7.9 14.5% 1.1% 18 -0.93
Carmelo Anthony $8,100 $8,000 1.04 34.3 4.5 35.6 0.9 29.7% 1.8% 9 -1.16
Kristaps Porzingis $6,400 $6,400 0.98 32.7 -4.3 32.2 -6.6 23.3% -2.4% 12 -0.82
Kyle O’Quinn $4,700 $5,200 1.15 15.5 2.7 17.9 4.1 19.3% -3.6% 24 2.10

Elite Plays – Derrick Rose (FD), Kyle O’Quinn

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (DK), Courtney Lee (DK), Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are a team that seems to be heading in the wrong direction. They can’t decide if they want to acquire new players or start fresh and acquire draft picks. Even with a decent amount of young talent, they appear to be a few years away from playoff contention. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. Orlando has an implied total of 108.5 points, which is 8.8 points above their season average.

The key situation to monitor tonight is the availability of Aaron Gordon. If he is unable to suit up, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross would both see all of the minutes that they could handle. I already consider both of these players to be elite plays on FanDuel and Gordon’s absence would make them even stronger fantasy options. Jeff Green and Mario Hezonja would also see a nice boost in minutes if Gordon is able to suit up. I typically like to target Elfrid Payton in tournaments, but his minutes have been all over the map recently. I do like targeting point guards against Derrick Rose, who has a DRPM of -3.06, but there are better options at Payton’s position. Nikola Vucevic should be able to dominate the paint against a short-handed Knicks’ frontcourt. New York already struggled against centers and they will be without Joakim Noah and Willy Hernangomez tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $5,800 $6,000 0.92 29.0 -2.6 26.7 -4.2 25.6% 1.1% 8 -3.06
Evan Fournier $5,300 $5,900 0.77 33.2 1.0 25.4 -2.6 24.0% -0.4% 21 -1.14
Terrence Ross $4,400 $5,200 0.76 22.8 11.3 17.3 14.4 18.7% 2.1% 28 -1.92
Aaron Gordon $5,100 $5,700 0.76 27.6 1.2 21.0 3.4 19.6% -0.4% 25 1.64
Nikola Vucevic $7,400 $7,400 1.14 28.6 1.1 32.6 0.5 25.1% 2.3% 26 0.80

Elite Plays – Evan Fournier (FD), Terrence Ross (FD), Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (DK), Terrence Ross (DK), Nikola Vucevic (Cash)

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Miami Heat
philadelphianba Vegas Total 213.0 miaminba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 9.0 Vegas Spread -9.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 111.0
Pace +/- -1.2 Pace +/- 2.0
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Dario Saric Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 5 5 15 20 Adj. DvP 16 20 13 16 29
DRPM -2.47 -1.02 -0.16 1.60 2.22 DRPM 0.04 -1.79 3.68 -1.27 -1.34

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have been surprisingly competitive recently, which helps explain why they are only 9-point underdogs on the road against the red-hot Heat. While the over/under of 213 points is higher than I expected it to be, this isn’t a matchup that I want to heavily target. On the season, Miami is ranked fifth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. The Sixers currently have the sixth lowest implied total in the slate.

T.J. McConnell is cheap and draws the best matchup of the five starters, but do we really want to use one of our coveted point guard spots on him in an 11 game slate? Gerald Henderson has been a serviceable value play recently, but the Heat have defended the shooting guard position well. Robert Covington has been one of my favorite targets since the Nerlens Noel trade, but his rebounding and steal rate may be unsustainable. This looks like a good night to hop off of Covington, especially since he should still garner some ownership. Dario Saric is the one play here that I have some interest in. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in seven straight games and will look to extend that streak tonight against the Heat. Jahlil Okafor and Richaun Holmes have both flashed some upside since the Noel trade, but I’m worried about both in a matchup against Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,500 $5,200 0.82 25.0 4.4 20.5 5.5 19.2% -0.5% 4 -2.47
Gerald Henderson $3,800 $3,900 0.67 24.3 3.6 16.4 2.8 17.9% 3.7% 5 -1.02
Robert Covington $7,300 $7,500 0.83 31.4 3.0 26.2 12.1 18.1% 3.3% 5 -0.16
Dario Saric $7,600 $7,700 0.86 25.0 9.4 21.4 16.3 22.8% 3.2% 15 1.60
Jahlil Okafor $5,300 $5,100 0.87 23.0 -1.8 20.0 -1.4 22.5% 2.9% 20 2.22
Nik Stauskas $4,100 $3,800 0.61 26.8 -2.1 16.3 2.3 16.4% 3.6% 5 N/A
Richaun Holmes $4,500 $4,700 0.96 16.6 5.7 16.0 8.3 17.4% -3.1% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dario Saric

Miami Heat

The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and are now only two games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. They should be able to pick up a win tonight at home against the Sixers, who have struggled on the road this season. Philadelphia may not be the worst defensive team in the NBA, but they are missing their rim protector in Joel Embiid. Miami comes into the game as a 9-point favorite and an implied total of 111 points. Their projected point differential of +9.4 is the best in the entire slate.

Miami’s backcourt is getting crowded now that Josh Richardson is back in the mix. The good news is that Goran Dragic has still managed to average 33 minutes in his last five games. His price on FanDuel makes him an easy fade over there, but he is very playable at $7,100 on DraftKings. Dion Waiters continues to play at high level, but I continue to have a hard time paying close to $7,000 for him with everyone healthy. In tournaments, I would rather take the discount and use Tyler Johnson off the bench. James Johnson has cooled off a bit recently, but draws a tremendous matchup against a beatable Sixers’ frontcourt. Hassan Whiteside is the top overall play at center tonight. In his three meetings against Philadelphia this season, he has scored 49, 57, and 35 fantasy points. The best part is that his ownership won’t be too high with Kyle O’Quinn in such a great spot.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,800 $7,100 0.98 34.1 -1.4 33.4 -0.8 29.1% 0.7% 16 0.04
Rodney McGruder $3,600 $3,000 0.54 26.0 -3.0 13.9 0.7 12.3% 1.6% 20 -1.79
Dion Waiters $7,100 $6,800 0.89 30.9 2.2 27.6 5.9 27.3% 1.7% 13 3.68
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.6 -0.7 8.6 2.6 13.2% -0.6% 16 -1.27
Hassan Whiteside $8,800 $8,300 1.16 32.9 0.5 38.2 1.8 21.3% -1.5% 29 -1.34
Tyler Johnson $5,700 $5,100 0.87 30.5 -1.4 26.5 -0.4 21.9% -2.9% 16 N/A
James Johnson $6,000 $5,600 0.93 26.5 0.5 24.7 -1.1 23.2% -0.2% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic (DK), Hassan Whiteside

Secondary Plays – Tyler Johnson (GPP), James Johnson

Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks
dallasnba Vegas Total 196.0 atlantanba Vegas Total 196.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 95.0 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- 0.9 Pace +/- -5.1
Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 23 26 10 10 Adj. DvP 1 9 3 5 6
DRPM -3.39 -0.56 3.01 3.82 2.31 DRPM -2.41 -0.05 -0.07 -0.08 0.50

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks are still 2.5 games behind the Nuggets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but I like their chances better than I do the Pelicans. A win over the Hawks tonight in Atlanta would go a long way in helping them catch Denver. Dallas is currently listed as a 6-point underdog with an implied total of only 95 points. Strictly from a matchup standpoint, the Mavericks appear to be an easy fade tonight. The Hawks are ranked inside the top ten in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.

Even though the low team total isn’t ideal, there are actually four viable plays from the Mavericks tonight. Wesley Matthews has already been ruled out, which opens the door for the rest of the starters. Dorian Finney-Smith is expected to draw the start, but I expect Nerlens Noel to see the biggest boost. The Mavericks will need size against Dwight Howard and Noel could push for 30+ minutes at a reasonable price point. Seth Curry has really picked up the slack since the Mavericks waived Deron Williams. Curry should see minutes in the upper 30s and he should see a small usage boost without Matthews on the floor. Harrison Barnes is in a similar boat and I love his price point on both FanDuel ($6,100) and DraftKings ($6,000). Dirk Nowitzki is also in play on DraftKings at $5,700. He is averaging 33 fantasy points in his last five games and he is a frequent visitor of the three-point bonus.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $5,200 $5,000 0.71 24.8 3.6 17.7 2.9 21.6% -1.5% 23 -3.39
Seth Curry $6,100 $5,900 0.73 28.7 6.0 20.9 9.1 20.1% 0.9% 23 -0.56
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,000 0.49 20.6 -6.2 10.0 -2.9 11.2% 0.2% 26 3.01
Harrison Barnes $6,100 $6,000 0.82 35.8 0.2 29.5 -1.3 24.9% -0.5% 10 3.82
Dirk Nowitzki $6,100 $5,700 0.98 26.2 2.3 25.8 6.6 24.2% 0.2% 10 2.31
Nerlens Noel $5,500 $5,300 1.02 20.0 8.4 20.3 5.4 18.1% -2.6% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Nerlens Noel, Dirk Nowitzki (DK)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks picked up a big win against the Celtics the other night. This is one of those teams that could make a push for the two seed or start unraveling at the seams. They draw a poor matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who are ranked 29th in pace of play and third in points allowed per game. Even at home, the Hawks’ implied total is 2.4 points below their season average. Dennis Schroder is coming off of a nice game against the Celtics, but draws a tougher matchup this time around. Dallas is ranked first in adjusted DvP against point guards. Thabo Sefolosha could garner some attention after his big game the other night, but I will be looking elsewhere for value in an 11 game slate. I’m starting to worry about Paul Millsap. He has not fared well since the trade for Ersan Ilyasova. Until he flashes some form, I will be avoiding Millsap in all formats. As crazy as it sounds, the only Hawks’ player on my radar tonight is Dwight Howard. He should be able to dominate the paint against the likes of Dirk Nowitzki and Nerlens Noel. Howard should not be trusted in cash games, but he has 40+ fantasy point upside for tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,600 $6,200 0.95 30.9 2.0 29.3 1.8 29.8% -0.8% 1 -2.41
Kent Bazemore $4,400 $4,000 0.76 27.3 -1.8 20.7 -3.5 20.8% 0.4% 9 -0.05
Thabo Sefolosha $3,700 $3,700 0.72 25.5 -5.1 18.4 -2.3 14.1% 1.5% 3 -0.07
Paul Millsap $7,400 $7,000 1.04 33.9 -1.9 35.1 -4.9 24.8% -0.2% 5 -0.08
Dwight Howard $7,000 $6,500 1.12 29.3 -0.9 32.8 -1.7 18.3% 0.9% 6 0.50
Tim Hardaway $5,400 $4,700 0.78 25.2 6.1 19.6 2.2 22.5% -1.6% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)

Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Toronto Raptors
washingtonnba Vegas Total 208.5 torontonba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 106.5
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 2 20 13 9 Adj. DvP 7 3 21 29 12
DRPM -3.09 -2.65 1.03 0.52 0.42 DRPM -0.37 -0.73 1.03 2.06 1.93

Washington Wizards

Every once in a while we have games on the schedule that I look forward to watching, but that have limited fantasy appeal. The Wizards and Raptors game seems to fit into that category. Washington is playing in the second half of a back-to-back and they draw a difficult matchup against a Raptors’ defense that is ranked eighth in points allowed per game. The Wizards implied total is 5.9 points below their season average, which gives them the third worst projected point differential in the slate. To make matters worse, we aren’t getting any sort of a discount on the Wizards’ starters. John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, and Markieff Morris are all expensive given their individual matchups. Marcin Gortat stands out as a decent value on DraftKings ($6,000), but there are at least a handful of centers that I would rather target in this slate. I will be tuning into this game as a fan, but will have very little exposure to it in DFS.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,400 $10,200 1.23 36.7 0.2 45.3 0.9 34.8% 0.7% 6 -3.09
Bradley Beal $7,400 $7,300 0.93 34.7 -0.1 32.2 1.8 26.3% -0.7% 2 -2.65
Otto Porter $6,400 $6,000 0.83 34.1 2.5 28.4 1.5 15.0% -1.9% 20 1.03
Markieff Morris $6,600 $6,300 0.85 31.9 -1.1 27.2 2.2 20.8% 1.3% 13 0.52
Marcin Gortat $6,500 $6,000 0.85 34.2 -4.8 29.2 -5.6 14.6% 2.7% 9 0.42
Bojan Bogdanovic $3,800 $4,000 0.75 26.8 -0.2 20.2 -2.8 22.5% -2.6% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (DK)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors’ championship hopes were dashed once it was announced that Kyle Lowry had to have surgery on his wrist. There is still a good chance that he will be able to return before the postseason, but they will likely drop far enough in the standings that they could be on the road in the first round of the playoffs. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. During their recent streak, the Wizards have had one of the best defenses in the league. The Raptors come into tonight’s game as 4.5-point favorites, but their implied total is considerably lower than their season average.

When Kyle Lowry was first announced out, Cory Joseph was a must play when he was minimum salary and even when he was priced below $5,000. We are no longer getting any sort of a discount on Joseph, as he is $5,100 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings. He is only averaging 0.73 fantasy points per minute this season and that doesn’t change a lot with Lowry off the floor. I don’t hate the play on FanDuel, but see him as an easy fade on DraftKings tonight. DeMar DeRozan is also expensive right now, but his insane usage rate helps us justify the play. With Lowry off the floor this season, DeRozan has a 43% usage rate and he averages 50 fantasy points per 36 minutes. DeRozan is still a viable option in all formats. Serge Ibaka has seen a nice spike in usage rate recently, but his price is getting a little too high for my liking. On the plus side, he does draw a great matchup against a Wizards’ team that is ranked 29th in adjusted DvP against power forwards.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,100 $5,400 0.73 23.2 8.0 16.9 2.7 20.0% -3.5% 7 -0.37
DeMar DeRozan $10,200 $9,300 1.13 35.6 0.3 40.1 -2.3 34.4% 1.3% 3 -0.73
DeMarre Carroll $4,100 $4,000 0.66 27.4 6.4 18.0 0.7 15.4% -4.1% 21 1.03
Serge Ibaka $6,800 $6,500 0.92 30.8 1.1 28.2 -1.3 20.1% -1.7% 29 2.06
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 $4,600 0.98 26.5 -6.4 25.9 -4.6 19.0% 0.1% 12 1.93

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), Cory Joseph (FD), Serge Ibaka

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Boston Celtics
clevelandnba Vegas Total 222.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 111.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 0.0 Pace +/- 0.3
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert Richard Jefferson LeBron James Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 14 15 6 21 Adj. DvP 24 29 22 4 11
DRPM -4.40 -1.50 1.18 2.49 0.86 DRPM -1.82 -0.06 -0.56 0.80 1.91

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers currently hold a four game lead over the Celtics for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. A win tonight would basically wrap up home-court advantage until the championship. Conversely, a loss would give the Celtics a chance at catching them with just over 20 games remaining. This should be a fantastic game to watch and to target, as the spread is set at a single point and the over/under is set at 222 points. The Celtics are ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Cleveland comes into the game with an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate.

The one statistic that I quote more often than any other is that Isaiah Thomas is ranked 450th (dead last) in DRPM this season. I absolutely love targeting point guards against the Celtics. Even though Kyrie Irving will see Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart at times, he is still going to have plenty of opportunities against Thomas. When you add in the fact that Irving sees a 4% usage boost and a 0.14 FP/min boost with Kevin Love and J.R. Smith out, I see him as one of the top plays in the slate. LeBron James is always on my radar in games where the spread is close and the team total is high. He should push for 38-40 minutes in a game without Love and Smith. Tristan Thompson is a sneaky tournament play on DraftKings. His minutes have been on the rise with Love out and Boston is ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,100 $8,700 1.08 35.1 -0.4 37.9 5.9 32.1% 1.6% 21 -4.40
Iman Shumpert $3,500 $3,300 0.59 25.4 0.3 15.1 -3.7 13.8% 0.3% 14 -1.50
Richard Jefferson $3,600 $3,200 0.50 19.9 2.8 9.9 3.5 12.2% -1.3% 15 1.18
LeBron James $10,600 $10,900 1.29 37.5 -0.9 48.2 -0.5 32.7% -3.8% 6 2.49
Tristan Thompson $6,100 $5,500 0.79 30.1 3.7 23.7 2.6 11.0% 0.1% 21 0.86
Channing Frye $5,000 $4,700 0.84 18.9 8.2 15.8 5.3 19.2% -0.4% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson

Boston Celtics

As I mentioned above, the Celtics could pull within three games of the Cavaliers with a win tonight at home. They probably aren’t as concerned with catching Cleveland as they are with beating out Washington for the two seed. This is a decent matchup for fantasy production, as the Cavaliers are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Celtics come into the game with an implied total of 110.5 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 2.5 points above their season average.

While Isaiah Thomas may be the worst defender in the NBA, Kyrie Irving isn’t that much better. He has a DRPM of -1.82 and the Cavaliers are ranked 24th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Thomas will likely see Iman Shumpert at times, but I expect big games from both of the starting point guards tonight. In his two meetings against Cleveland this season, Thomas has scored 40 and 50 fantasy points. He makes a strong play on DraftKings at only $8,500. Outside of Thomas, there isn’t a lot to love from the Celtics. With Avery Bradley back in the lineup, it will cut into the minutes for Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, and Jaylen Brown. I wish Al Horford was in better form, but he is only averaging 20 fantasy points in his last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,400 $8,500 1.20 34.5 -0.8 41.4 -4.7 35.2% 2.1% 24 -1.82
Avery Bradley $5,900 $5,100 0.88 34.4 -19.4 30.4 -18.4 21.9% -6.8% 29 -0.06
Jae Crowder $5,800 $5,300 0.77 32.4 0.3 24.9 -2.1 16.6% 0.6% 22 -0.56
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,400 0.81 19.7 -2.2 15.9 -1.7 14.3% 0.3% 4 0.80
Al Horford $5,900 $5,600 0.98 32.8 -2.7 32.1 -12.4 21.9% -3.5% 11 1.91
Marcus Smart $5,900 $5,100 0.78 31.0 0.8 24.3 3.7 20.3% 2.8% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas (FD)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious